Covid - coming out of Lockdown 3 - no politics, less opinion and more facts and information.

[Bernard Lamb]

2 hours ago, beast66606 said:

 

I have given up posting facts* in this thread, and they are verifiable as I post links to them - yesterday people challenged them (not sure how you can challenge a published fact unless you have on the spot information) and yet people who admit they are basing their comments on not much more than opinions are not challenged.

I will read but I'm leaving the lunatics to comment on the asylum (mostly)

 

 

* facts as in they are (mainly) published by HMG, ONS or the NHS and are certainly not based on opinion.

Yes, you did publish the facts. But you did not point out the rider and caution note in respect of Table 9. You then even tried to claim that I mentioned two notes where in fact I mentioned a caution and a note. What you posted was a true fact from a document published by the government, but without the warning about using the facts without an explanation made it totally meaningless. About as much use as the fact that the average man has less than two legs.

Bernard

[Nearholmer]

44 minutes ago, Dodger said:

I feel that the figure of deaths should be attributed to Covid 19 only and  not using the within 28 days anomaly

That idea has been discussed and debated endlessly, not just by amateurs like us here, but professionals too, and some countries do still attempt to do that (Belgium I think might be one), but most don’t.

 

The problem with it is that it is often incredibly difficult, actually impossible, to decide which of several conditions dealt the coup de grace to a person suffering several in parallel. Would they have recovered if Covid hadn’t been in the mix? Or, if diabetes hadn’t? Or, if heart disease hadn’t? Or, or …? And, did one of those conditions weigh more heavily than the others? Decisively so?

 

The Doctor certifying death would have to make a judgement, an often impossible one.

 

The method adopted is at least unambiguous, and not subjective, and the way it is applied “counts out” blindingly obvious cases like a person with catastrophic injury from an RTA who happens also to have tested positive in the past 28 days.

 

It will “over-count” some, but it will likewise “under-count” a person who suffers a long Covid-initiated illness and passes away on the 29th day after their last test (there’s actually a 60 day count to attempt to understand such cases too).

 

Think of it as a thick, slightly fuzzy-edged line on a graph. The fact that it isn’t hair-thin doesn’t detract from its usefulness; if it’s rising, falling, or level, it still tells you an enormous amount.

[woodenhead]

10 minutes ago, Andy Hayter said:

 

We have been here before but with multiple pages over several threads I will repeat for your benefit.

 

People do not die from Covid.

They die because Covid causes various problems and these are what kills the victims - heart issues, kidney failure and mostly lung/pneumonia complications.  Saying whether Covid is the or even a cause is open to some interpretation.  To avoid the subjectivity the UK have decided  to standardise.  It is not perfect but under the conditions, no system is ever likely to be perfect.  It is however consistent.

I too was once sceptical of the methodology but in an imperfect world it did appear to offer a sensible way of measuring mortality rates.  I take comfort in the fact that since the vaccinations began rolling out that the reported death rate using this method tumbled and has remained low ever since which proves that the methodology has a basis in fact.

[Oldddudders]

I couldn't give a stuff about the methodology employed - but take a great deal of interest in the trends of deaths and hospitalisations  as shown in the gov.uk dashboard. They, it seems to me, show how well uk.plc is coping, compared with where it was last month or last year. Thus how other countries compile their data is also of little interest, as long as they each maintain the same criteria in its compilation. There, too, one can see a trend and form a judgement about how well they are coping with this or that variant.

 

Comparisons of numbers between nations are pointless, but comparison of trends may give a clue as to who is doing better - if that matters in anything other than an academic sense. In particular, deaths are deaths, and hopefully every one in every nation is to be bitterly regretted. 

[Andy Hayter]

It is perhaps worth adding that the same problem occurs with influenza.  People do not die from influenza.  Here excess deaths is the method used in order to establish (in retrospect) the number of flu deaths.  Relatively few complaints are made about the use of this metric for flu.

 

Given the relatively few deaths from flu last year since very few people caught the flu, one study (and sorry I cannot remember who) used excess deaths to estimate the number of Covid deaths last winter.  The numbers were similar to but somewhat above the 28 day calculation and the trends were exactly the same.

[Neil]

On Tuesday Channel 4 aired an interesting and if I'm honest a slightly troubling  documentary about the Qanon conspiracy cult. As it's closely allied to the anti-vax movement I'd suggest it's well worth a watch. It's available on on their catch up service here.

[hayfield]

6 hours ago, Nearholmer said:

But, how can you “not buy” a big, and well founded, academic research project that attempts to understand who tends not to seek vaccination, and what leads them to that position?

 

 

 

 

Don't forget that some great academic researches in the past have since be found to be unfounded and wrong.

 

In this case they may have wanted to understand the issues, but did they come to the correct conclusion ? No doubt several more studies will be conducted each reaching a different conclusion, then another will be done to understand why they all came to differing conclusions and so on. In the end nothing happens.

 

[hayfield]

32 minutes ago, Neil said:

On Tuesday Channel 4 aired an interesting and if I'm honest a slightly troubling  documentary about the Qanon conspiracy cult. As it's closely allied to the anti-vax movement I'd suggest it's well worth a watch. It's available on on their catch up service here.

 

I second this, a good informative program.

 

Channel 4 are getting some very good programs these days

[woodenhead]

33 minutes ago, Neil said:

On Tuesday Channel 4 aired an interesting and if I'm honest a slightly troubling  documentary about the Qanon conspiracy cult. As it's closely allied to the anti-vax movement I'd suggest it's well worth a watch. It's available on on their catch up service here.

Isn't it a Qanon member who got crowds to gather on the grassy knoll expecting a Kennedy to rise from the dead and announce he was running for President with Donald Trump in the 2024 election?  And when that didn't happen he promised Princess Diana would wave from a window at a local hotel. 

 

Nuff said about that movement, however, they are dangerous in that sufficient numbers of people believe in it to storm a seat of government believing they were the saviours not the protagonists.

[beast66606]

2 hours ago, Bernard Lamb said:

Yes, you did publish the facts. But you did not point out the rider and caution note in respect of Table 9. You then even tried to claim that I mentioned two notes where in fact I mentioned a caution and a note. What you posted was a true fact from a document published by the government, but without the warning about using the facts without an explanation made it totally meaningless. About as much use as the fact that the average man has less than two legs.

Bernard

 

 

Your last comment sums things up nicely -  totally useless information without any context or source material so who knows if it's factual or not  - do you mean man(kind), man (adult male human), do you include juveniles in the count as they are male but not strictly a man?, man - as used as a slang term in some dialects ? How many "man" were counted and by whom ? What is the definition of a leg in this context, a leg of a race ? a leg of a chair, a limb ?  - perhaps it needs a rider and caution note to go with it ?

 

 

[Nearholmer]

22 minutes ago, hayfield said:

a different conclusion, then another will be done to understand why they all came to differing conclusions and so on. In the end nothing happens.

In the mean time, it’s the best you’ve got, unless you regard guessing, or random anecdotes, or what a bloke at a bus-stop told your best mate, as better.

 

All science evolves, but that’s a pretty poor reason to reject all science, which I know isn’t what you are doing, but it is the logical extension of what you say.

[EddieB]

52 minutes ago, Neil said:

On Tuesday Channel 4 aired an interesting and if I'm honest a slightly troubling  documentary about the Qanon conspiracy cult. As it's closely allied to the anti-vax movement I'd suggest it's well worth a watch. It's available on on their catch up service here.

Having watched that, there's another programme on the same site about Anti-Vaxxers, and Andrew Wakefield (MMR autism scandal) in particular.

[hayfield]

1 minute ago, Nearholmer said:

In the mean time, it’s the best you’ve got, unless you regard guessing, or random anecdotes, or what a bloke at a bus-stop told your best mate, as better.

 

All science evolves, but that’s a pretty poor reason to reject all science, which I know isn’t what you are doing, but it is the logical extension of what you say.

 

But given the foot notes the bloke at the bus stop might be more correct ?

[Nearholmer]

I’m now completely confused.

 

 

[EddieB]

18 minutes ago, woodenhead said:

Isn't it a Qanon member who got crowds to gather on the grassy knoll expecting a Kennedy to rise from the dead and announce he was running for President with Donald Trump in the 2024 election?  And when that didn't happen he promised Princess Diana would wave from a window at a local hotel. 

 

Nuff said about that movement, however, they are dangerous in that sufficient numbers of people believe in it to storm a seat of government believing they were the saviours not the protagonists.

It would be a joke if no one took it seriously.  David Icke is still alive and well and quite active.

 

"Truth" is now a commodity, often whoever gets past the self-appointed censors on the big social media sites.  For example there are some reasons why certain groups refuse the vaccines that have basis in racial memories, others have no ground of truth, but both are strongly influential when propagated within those groups.

[EddieB]

35 minutes ago, hayfield said:

 

But given the foot notes the bloke at the bus stop might be more correct ?

Only if he boards the bus to Clapham...

[Oldddudders]

1 minute ago, EddieB said:

Only if he boards the bus to Clapham...

But if he's over 30 he's a failure and therefore his views mean nothing.

[Nearholmer]

A further hour of deep delving, and I still can't find figures for vaccinated vs not-vaccinated occupation of ICU.

 

The nearest I've found, and it is still a long way from the answer, is in here.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1039639/Weekly_Flu_and_COVID-19_report_w49.pdf

 

Page 57 covers ICU and HDU occupation, and contains the following words:

 

"In week 48, the overall weekly ICU or HDU admission rates for COVID-19 decreased slightly. There were 4 new ICU or HDU admissions for influenza (3 influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 and 1 influenza A(not subtyped) in week 48. The ICU or HDU rate for COVID-19 was at 0.48 per 100,000 in week 48 compared to 0.58 per 100,000 in the previous week. By UKHSA Centre, the highest ICU or HDU admission rates for COVID-19 were observed in the North West. By age groups, the highest ICU or HDU admission rates for COVID-19 were observed in the 65 to 74-year olds."

 

The final sentence might appear to be a clue, but the more I think about it, the less I think it is.

[Chrisr40]

2 minutes ago, Nearholmer said:

A further hour of deep delving, and I still can't find figures for vaccinated vs not-vaccinated

I think I remember seeing on TV last night that in the IC ward they were at that 5 out of every 6 were unvaccinated.

[Nearholmer]

27 minutes ago, Chrisr40 said:

I think I remember seeing on TV last night that in the IC ward they were at that 5 out of every 6 were unvaccinated.

 

Yes, there are many anecdotes of a similar kind, but it is frustratingly difficult to find figures to give a clear, broad picture.

[hayfield]

1 hour ago, Chrisr40 said:

I think I remember seeing on TV last night that in the IC ward they were at that 5 out of every 6 were unvaccinated.

 

The story is the same from all medical professionals who are being interviewed, now the covid wards comprise mainly of unvaccinated patients and as the year has progressed their age is getting younger

[monkeysarefun]

5 hours ago, woodenhead said:

Isn't it a Qanon member who got crowds to gather on the grassy knoll expecting a Kennedy to rise from the dead and announce he was running for President with Donald Trump in the 2024 election?  And when that didn't happen he promised Princess Diana would wave from a window at a local hotel. 

 

Nuff said about that movement, however, they are dangerous in that sufficient numbers of people believe in it to storm a seat of government believing they were the saviours not the protagonists.

 

Apparently there are those still there keeping a vigil. I don't think it was JFK who was going to make a reappearance   though, that would be silly cos he'd be 110 or something.

 

No it was his son, who didn't die in a plane crash in 1999 or whatever but has been secretly planning to be Trumps running mate in 2024.

 

As these two supporters can confirm. Except they got the year wrong on their  sign, bless them.

 

 

 

In COVID news here, the Australian government has approved coronavirus vaccines for 5 to 11 year olds, commencing January 10.

 

[APOLLO]

Did my ONC mechanical engineering 1969 - 71, studied maths, engineering biased.

 

HNC Gas engineering 1973 1974. Studied maths, purely statistics.

 

Became involved with statistics in the 80's, producing reports etc, rather massaging the figures to keep everyone happy.

 

Don't believe a thing you read statistically. nothing is real. Back then or now. EVERYTHING is massaged.

 

Brit15

[Hobby]

10 hours ago, Nearholmer said:

 

Yes, there are many anecdotes of a similar kind, but it is frustratingly difficult to find figures to give a clear, broad picture.

 

Maybe there's no nationwide stats but you have to go down to local (hospital or Trust) level? They may not even be publishing them either!

[Nearholmer]

I’ve given up on it again, it’s too much of a thief of time.

 

My suspicion will have to remain just that, or maybe I will rebadge it as an hypothesis, which might upset Beast a tiny bit less.