Covid - coming out of Lockdown 3 - no politics, less opinion and more facts and information.

[woodenhead]

It's ok @adb968008 they are all singing carols.

 

Just had a Sunday roast in the pub because it's safe there, must be, we didn't require a mask.

 

 

[boxbrownie]

1 hour ago, Nearholmer said:

Personally, I think he is doing exactly that on the omicron problem.

 

But, all the other stuff has damaged his credibility to a degree whereby lots of people just don’t believe anything he says, even when what he says is both true and important. Which really isn’t good for any of us.

Indeed, I didn’t say he has not been behaving like an idiot. 

[Nearholmer]

Good, clear, no wiffle-waffle message in his broadcast.

[Metr0Land]

Wow.  Just WOW!  God speed to all involved in this massive logistical effort.  That's 1M jabs per day needed by end Dec.

[DavidLong]

8 hours ago, Neil said:

 

I would be interested to see some statistics to back this up. I'm not saying you're wrong but equally I'm not saying you're right.

 

 

 

I'll agree that there are bits of the NHS that don't work as they should. The one that has been known for a long time is bed blocking because adequate funding for adult social care has not been in place for a long time. Both my late mother in law and more recently my late father were bed blockers. There are currently severe staff shortages in the care sector; low pay and low status have been endemic in the profession for years. A review solely into the NHS won't fix these problems and as long as they remain the NHS won't be able to perform as it would wish. None of this will be cheap to fix and I'd suggest that spending more on care, across public services would be a laudable aim.

 

By coincidence this has just been published on the Guardian website:

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/dec/12/number-of-healthy-patients-stranded-in-english-hospital-wards-rises-by-80

 

David

 

Note: that is 80% not 80!

Edited December 12, 2021 by DavidLong

[adb968008]

44 minutes ago, Metr0Land said:

Wow.  Just WOW!  God speed to all involved in this massive logistical effort.  That's 1M jabs per day needed by end Dec.

Lets hope has them in stock, remeber last time.

[Andy Kirkham]

Those who have spare time might like to consider acting as a volunteer steward at a vaccination centre https://nhsvolunteerresponders.org.uk/i-want-to-volunteer/volunteer-roles/steward-volunteer

 

I am doing my first shift tomorrow.

[Hobby]

13 hours ago, woodenhead said:

Just had a Sunday roast in the pub because it's safe there, must be, we didn't require a mask.

 

Oh, not this again! I'd love to know how you or I could eat and drink and wear a mask at the same time!! If I put my mask on between eating and drinking how would that make any difference as I'd have been exhaling my breath whilst doing the eating and drinking so spreading it (if I hadn't had a clear PCR test just before!). The only way to to make pubs (and cafes) as safe as possible (though not 100%) would be to go back to the old plastic dividers and limit numbers, I'm sure that they've kept them in a back room just in case!

 

HOWEVER: let's get things in perspective, in the sorts of pubs I frequent there aren't that many people in there, a lot less than in a shop or on my train, the turnover of people is far less than in the shop (or train!) and so the risk is much less in the first place (oh, and on crowded trains and in crowded shops you'll see plenty of people without masks as well.

 

Can we please move on from the cheap pub jibes, they are now becoming very boring.

[Bernard Lamb]

19 hours ago, Nearholmer said:

 

 

The “NHS problem” is insoluble without a clear, measurable objective/purpose. What is the Pole Star by which to navigate?

I think you need to know the size and range of "the NHS problem" before you can identify the key points, let alone find a way to tackle them. I have always been impressed by the work of Andrew Mawson in Bromley, as have those people who I have taken there to see what they are doing there. Many years go he came up with a figure of around15% of the total health care requirements being provided by the NHS. Think about it. Social care, with a massive budget for the very young and the very old and those in between with all manner of problems is currently not part of the NHS budget. Then take the volunteer and charity sector. How big? Probably going on guestimates at least 25% of the total "health care costs".

As to paying for it? Would the UK population be prepared to contribute on a similar basis to people in Germany? They have far more facilities than we have in the UK but at a far greater cost to the individual.

Any road up, we need to sort covid before any thing can happen.

Bernard

[Oldddudders]

It has already been noted that the ongoing pandemic, and the strictures necessarily imposed because of it, are having a negative psychological effect on many. I wonder if that is at the root of the increasingly fractious tone in this thread. Tolerance levels seem to have dropped somewhat.

[Nearholmer]

4 minutes ago, Bernard Lamb said:

think you need to know the size and range of "the NHS problem" before you can identify the key points,

I agree.
 

Part of the point that I’m, perhaps clumsily, attempting to make by pointing out the need to identify the purpose/objective of the NHS is that that the prompts questions about where whatever the NHS is sits in the constellation of things that, to me at least, seem to be intended overall to “keep us well”.

 

My inkling is that the unspoken overall objective is that each of us should enjoy as long a life of “good health” (and that isn’t easy to define) as practicable (which word implies taking into account the cost of achieving that). If I’ve got that about right, then a huge amount of the focus overall should be going on ensuring that everyone eats well, exercises well, sleeps well, has warm, secure housing etc from birth, because by the time we all get to late middle age and begin to start getting ill-health in significant amounts, the die is cast.

 

Anyway, it is all really, really complicated, that I do know!

[hayfield]

12 hours ago, Metr0Land said:

Wow.  Just WOW!  God speed to all involved in this massive logistical effort.  That's 1M jabs per day needed by end Dec.

 

The simple fact is if we try and reach these incredible numbers but in trying massively increase the numbers vaccinated the same old names will be sticking the knife in. But in trying so many more would have been vaccinated  than if we just carried on as previously planned. Far from being undecisive this is the action we all deserve

 

What ever anyone says, this government with covid has always thought big and achieved its goals, first they mocked the target of 50,000 test a day, then they mocked the target of 100,000 not to say i million plus daily. OK some things in hindsight could have been done better. But this could be said about every government. But its not just the government that is reaching to the stars, its the NHS, the volunteers and the manufacturing companies. Whatever the faults our government/NHS/Big business have I am very grateful that my own and extended families nave been given the tools to keep us safe

 

As a footnote it seems the vaccine rollout (first and second jabs) is picking up a little pace, seems more are getting the message

89% of all over 12's have had 1 dose

81% have had 2 doses

A massive 40% have had a booster in the past few weeks

 

A big thanks to all involved

[Nearholmer]

22 minutes ago, Oldddudders said:

having a negative psychological effect on many

I’ll be frank: it certainly is on me.

 

It’s mainly what I might call “secondary affect” in my case, in that while I personally find the need to take precautions, do endless LFTs, forego things like old toy train collecting meetings etc a bit of a fag, the real affect is on my children.
 

It’s no longer the serious ‘whumph’ that school closures caused, although that has cast a long shadow in several ways, it’s the ‘drip, drip, drip’ stuff of mask-wearing at school, LFTs twice a week, occasional ‘urgent the whole class gets PCR’ events, concern about whether either of the grannies might get it, questions over whether we can have a big Christmas-Eve meal out together, the fact that Uncle J had to self-isolate for a week because he had it and everyone was worried about him, etc etc, which combine to sap some of the joy out of their young lives.

[John M Upton]

Would love to know how Boris expects to achieve his target of everyone having had three jabs by the end of December!!!

 

Tried to book my wife's third last night and this morning.  No chance, website keeps crashing as everyone over the age of 18 has flooded the system!

 

Thankfully I got my third booked last week when things were quieter...

[woodenhead]

6 minutes ago, John M Upton said:

Would love to know how Boris expects to achieve his target of everyone having had three jabs by the end of December!!!

 

Tried to book my wife's third last night and this morning.  No chance, website keeps crashing as everyone over the age of 18 has flooded the system!

 

Thankfully I got my third booked last week when things were quieter...

It's more an aspiration than a target - by throwing as much resource as possible he is hoping the take up will massively increase the numbers of triple jabbed and stem the impact of the omicron variant during January.  The age related scheme they had been running worked fine in the first and second jabs, but it was under different circumstances and in holding up other jabs whilst those who were hesitant decided to get jabs delayed getting the mass of triple vaccinated people needed when a wave is coming.

[Andy Kirkham]

14 minutes ago, John M Upton said:

Would love to know how Boris expects to achieve his target of everyone having had three jabs by the end of December!!!

 

Tried to book my wife's third last night and this morning.  No chance, website keeps crashing as everyone over the age of 18 has flooded the system!

 

Thankfully I got my third booked last week when things were quieter...

Unfortunately it would seem that it's too late now for the hitherto-hesitant to protect themselves. It's likely that almost everybody will be exposed to the super-transmissible omicron long before they're eligible for a second shot, let alone a third one.

[Andy Hayter]

At the risk of being branded Cassandra (again), it is all a bit late now.  If as was suggested yesterday that here will be perhaps a million cases at the end of December, then those getting their jab today will still be only half way to achieving peak immunity.

 

Certainly a lot better than doing nothing but horses and stable doors comes to mind.

 

Andy K has had very similar thoughts

[Nearholmer]

8 hours ago, Andy Hayter said:

it is all a bit late now.

 

In fairness, I can't quite see how things could have been done faster since omicron emerged, and the options are pretty limited: do nothing; resrict contact between people; vaccinate quicker; restrict contact and vaccinate quicker in various combinations.

 

This time round, nobody actually knew there was a horse until after it had bolted.

 

But, the issue is real: in our ward a grand total of 23% of people are triple-jabbed so far, and 25% have had no vaccination at all, so there are many not protected against omicron.

 

I have just heard the cheer-leader of the Plan B rebel MPs on the radio say that any restriction on contact between people was unacceptable on what amounted to ideological grounds, as usual making no attempt to address the practical implications of that position. I can't tell whether he hasn't thought it through, or he has, and its the interviewers who are missing a trick by failing to probe his thinking properly. Thankfully, he does seem to be a far outlier.

 

Volunteering? Tried. They dont want me! Seriously, there are so many volunteers locally for vaccination marshalling, transporting people and gubbins, fetching things for people isolating etc. that all the registers have been temporarily closed.

 

 

 

 

Edited December 13, 2021 by Nearholmer

[Oldddudders]

Even before Boris's entreaties last night, it seems people were getting the message that things may be serious - online orders for Lateral Flow Tests are no longer being met. And the NHS website booking facility for jabs and boosters has crashed due to overload.

 

Interestingly, I was looking at NHS hospital Covid bed occupations just now, and it appears that since early November, numbers of bed patients have actually dropped. On 2.11 there were 9653 patients in hospital beds, while today, 6 weeks later, there are 7372. We are warned that Omicron will be fast and brutal, suggesting that trend will now reverse, but how had we got Delta on the ropes to that extent?  

[Andy Hayter]

56 minutes ago, Nearholmer said:

 

In fairness, I can't quite see how things could have been done faster since omicron emerged, and the options are pretty limited: do nothing; resrict contact between people; vaccinate quicker; restrict contact and vaccinate quicker in various combinations.

 

This time round, nobody actually knew there was a horse until after it had bolted.

 

But, the issue is real: in our ward a grand total of 23% of people are triple-jabbed so far, and 25% have had no vaccination at all, so there are many not protected against omicron.

 

I have just heard the cheer-leader of the Plan B rebel MPs on the radio say that any restriction on contact between people was unacceptable on what amounted to ideological grounds, as usual making no attempt to address the practical implications of that position. I can't tell whether he hasn't thought it through, or he has, and its the interviewers who are missing a trick by failing to probe his thinking properly. Thankfully, he does seem to be a far outlier.

 

Volunteering? Tried. They dont want me! Seriously, there are so many volunteers locally for vaccination marshalling, transporting people and gubbins, fetching things for people isolating etc. that all the registers have been temporarily closed.

 

 

 

 

In terms of Omicron I agree but when you read of care homes that should have been getting boosters in September and are still waiting (and it seems to be the whole care home population not just individuals), it does seem as if things have not gone as well as they could.

[Nearholmer]

6 minutes ago, Andy Hayter said:

should have been getting boosters in September and are still waiting

Now, that I hadn’t heard of.

 

But, even reading this thread, it is apparent that the availability/organisation of vaccination varies hugely by location, so I probably oughtn’t to be surprised.

[boxbrownie]

3 minutes ago, Andy Hayter said:

In terms of Omicron I agree but when you read of care homes that should have been getting boosters in September and are still waiting (and it seems to be the whole care home population not just individuals), it does seem as if things have not gone as well as they could.

But I wonder if it’s a local issue rather than National , or Governmental?

 

Mum lives at home and was contacted by our Doctor for her booster jab back in late September, as were we a few weeks later, Mum had hers by a home visit and us at a local school all well organised.

 

And our friend who works as a sister at the local care home told us all the residents there are triple jabbed, that conversation was a few weeks ago.

[Pacific231G]

9 hours ago, Andy Hayter said:

At the risk of being branded Cassandra (again), it is all a bit late now.  If as was suggested yesterday that here will be perhaps a million cases at the end of December, then those getting their jab today will still be only half way to achieving peak immunity.

 

Certainly a lot better than doing nothing but horses and stable doors comes to mind.

 

Andy K has had very similar thoughts

Though in this case it is perhaps locking the stable door after some horses have bolted but there are others still in the stable. I feel fortunate that I had my booster jab last month but very definitely not immune. To be fair, I don't think anyone had anticipated a variant with quite so many mutations "borrowed", it seems likely, from either one of the common cold Covid viruses or from the AIDS virus. 

As for the libertarian arguments against imposing any restrictions for the good of all, would these same MPs have been arguing against blackout regulations in 1940. Restrictions have always been applied during epidemics. 

[stewartingram]

9 hours ago, woodenhead said:

It's more an aspiration than a target - by throwing as much resource as possible he is hoping the take up will massively increase the numbers of triple jabbed and stem the impact of the omicron variant during January.  The age related scheme they had been running worked fine in the first and second jabs, but it was under different circumstances and in holding up other jabs whilst those who were hesitant decided to get jabs delayed getting the mass of triple vaccinated people needed when a wave is coming.

Actually, if you read the intention properly, by the end of the December, boosters will be offered, to everyone; ie you may book the jab ({if you are entitled). Still a massive achievement though. But if you haven't waited the correct period since your last jab, or indeed are out of the age range, you will still have to wait.

[burgundy]

5 minutes ago, Pacific231G said:

As for the libertarian arguments against imposing any restrictions for the good of all, would these same MPs have been arguing against blackout regulations in 1940. Restrictions have always been applied during epidemics. 

I am sure that they would have been happy to populate one of those "decoy towns" that were set up to distract bombers from their actual targets. 

Best wishes 

Eric