Covid - coming out of Lockdown 3 - no politics, less opinion and more facts and information.

[Bernard Lamb]

Covid Virtual Ward.

If you have not heard about these then please look it up.

I am not in the mood nor do I have the time to go into details at the moment.

Not me, but a person very close in the family is in one and it is not a good place.

How many exist, with how many patients and how they appear in the statistics I know not.

Bernard

 

 

[Hobby]

1 hour ago, Regularity said:

It doesn’t matter as much as you think.

 

You miss the point... The stats that are produced by each country have been compared directly between countries by the press and people on social media ever since this started even though, because of the lack of common standards, they cannot be used that way.

 

It is very, very, important as it promotes false information and generates lies.

Edited July 24, 2021 by Hobby

[AY Mod]

23 minutes ago, Hobby said:

generates lies

 

People do that, not the data.

[adb968008]

10 hours ago, Nearholmer said:

The protection provided by vaccination should show through in a reduced ‘case fatality rate’, a lower proportion of those who catch it dying, but it’s probably far too soon to be able to get a meaningful figure.

 

What you can do is to very roughly compare the number of deaths now, with the number last time we had this number of cases, as below, and the difference is very clear. Even if the fatality figures are currently, say. 100% low due to lagging reporting, the picture strongly suggests that the vaccination programme has been very effective.

 

 

One also has to put death rates from Covid in context of the background “all causes” death rate, which is something like 1600/day averaged over a year.

 

Personally, I’m anything but comfortable with the current risk levels at a family level, because I don’t want any of us to spend days/weeks feeling ill, but when you look at it from a zoomed-out, whole society, perspective it doesn’t look to me as if we are running a mega-risk, although only time will really tell.

 

 

You forgot to overlay testing on that.

 

if you test 100k and find 100 cases youve got a 0.01% sample rate, and 100 cases.

if you test 1m and fine 1000 cases, youve still got a 0.01% sample rate, but now 1000 cases.

 

Heres a recent comparison.. using the same covid NHS website data source.

 

Ive calculated in ratio of (number of positive cases) / (number of tests )  = sample positivity  ratio… 4th column

 

What I did on July 18th was to ignore comparing the headline case number, but instead focus on  finding the nearest same day / ratio and compare it to deaths / admissions for the same day.. 

 

You find yourself not comparing July 18th (39k) to 20/21st December ( 32k followed by 47k) like in your example above, but actually date much further back…

 

There was a 30 day lockdown between November /December, but, excluding that 30 day period, it took 2.5 month to reach a peak on January 4th.

Theres no doubting deaths are down, but hospitalisations admissions are similar at the same ratio.

 

if there is interest in this I can produce a daily ratio graph in an xls from begining to current to see how the ratio looks, and maybe expand it to a ratio of admissions to positivity ratio to ?  It might be worth adding number of inpatients too to this data, but i’m fairly certain its going to be less also… i’m only going to do it if anyones interested.

 

There is risk that with schools closing next week that testing younger groups declines, but service sectors now testing daily instead, that the data is going to show an overnight skew, suddenly suggesting older age groups are suddenly test positive and younger ones decline… I hope this change in testing focus doesnt get ignored, but equally not used by news to generate a headline too.

 

I do take solace in the last weeks declining numbers, that testing has consistently remained above 1m a day, so not just the headline case number, but the ratio is declining to.

 

 

 

[Dunsignalling]

5 hours ago, hayfield said:

 

John

 

Hopefully by September the rates will be much lower, hopefully those most likely to be infected will be in the Mediterranean enjoying the night life 

Agree on all counts. I hope we are both proved correct.

 

John

[Nearholmer]

ADB,

 

That is interesting, and I think you could be right that test positivity ratio, rather than positive tests, might be better comparator.

 

Even that probably can't be a perfect comparator, because not only has the number of tests undertaken each day increased, but the approach to testing has changed - I think in October we were still on "get a test if you feel a bit ropey", which didnt reveal asymptomatic cases, whereas now there are a lot of "routine" tests, using LFD, of people in connection with their work, and of school students, which do reveal asymptomatic cases.

 

20 minutes ago, adb968008 said:

Theres no doubting deaths are down, but hospitalisations admissions are similar at the same ratio.

 

That is particularly interesting, but, as I said in an earlier post, I do wonder whether the effective criteria for hospital admission have changed, so that people are now being admitted on a more precautionary basis, rather than only when "at death's door". If so, that ought to be visible through duration of stay in hospital, but I haven't delved very far into that, except very locally.

 

If this is a better comparator, it also suggests that the reduction in deaths isn't quite so dramatic - very very good, but not quite so very good, if you see what I mean.

 

20 minutes ago, adb968008 said:

There is risk that with schools closing next week

 

Ours have already been shut for a week, and I've been watching to see whether/how that affects figures, but its too early to tell yet.

Edited July 24, 2021 by Nearholmer

[Dunsignalling]

The problem with attempting to reconcile current hospital admission rates with earlier statistics is that we can't tell with any degree of certainty whether we are comparing like with like.

 

It may well be that less-seriously-affected people are getting hospitalised than previously simply because the capacity has been freed up by fewer patients being extremely ill

 

John  

[adb968008]

On 17/07/2021 at 12:24, adb968008 said:

I should be able to give first hand experience next week

 

A case was in my 10 year old daughters class last Wednesday, school closed the class on Friday morning.. at 10.37 they sent us an email to collect her from outside the school at 10.45. Her letter tells us she has to quarantine until next Friday.

 

Just to full circle, day 11, out of quarantine and chasing 45596 today.. no illnesses in any of us, and a scan round the whatsapp group hasnt revealed any cases either. Since all the kids were in the zoom meetings last week, we are all a bit puzzled as to who actually tested positive, closest we found was 2 parents, both more than 2 weeks ago… indeed my little one having a cold the week before, most parents assumed it was her, as she missed the first few days that week too.

 

lets hope it stays that way, but I need a diet, her week off saw us doing a lot of BBQ in that weather.

 

 

[Regularity]

4 hours ago, Hobby said:

You miss the point.

Nah. I think you just read what you want to read.

[hayfield]

15 hours ago, Hobby said:

 

You miss the point... The stats that are produced by each country have been compared directly between countries by the press and people on social media ever since this started even though, because of the lack of common standards, they cannot be used that way.

 

It is very, very, important as it promotes false information and generates lies.

 

Hobby

 

Spot on there especially last year when all the details were not known, All we got was that we are not doing enough to combat the pandemic, and as you say there were many using direct comparisons with other countries 

 

We found out that behind the scenes it was totally different. Preparation for a vaccine was at an advanced stage

From a more or less standing start the UK built a testing regime 3 times larger than most other European countries

We authorised vaccines at double quick rate

We then got vaccines into peoples arms quicker than any other comparable country

 

At this moment we are reporting very high infection rates, but we are testing 3 times or more people

Our 7 day rolling average is 10 days behind, looking at real time data the peak of infections was on the 15th and rates now have nearly halved

 

I think promoting lies is a bit harsh, certainly its giving a false impression. But at times like these its best to be over cautious

 

Clearly the government and the health authorities/industries were doing far more than they were being given credit for. 

88% of adults have now had at least one jab, far more than early assumptions of the take up rate, how do we get to the other 12% is the biggest issue we now have, or is it that we will never get to them and we have to expect the virus has to find its own level (those dreaded words "herd immunity), where most have some for of protection and in the main will only contract a mild infection.

 

At least the figures again are going in the right direction, but France and Spain are now catching us up very quickly and with less testing. Certainly not a time to rush away to chase a tan abroad without expecting possible travel disruptions.

[Hobby]

13 minutes ago, hayfield said:

I think promoting lies is a bit harsh, certainly its giving a false impression. But at times like these its best to be over cautious

 

Glad someone actually saw the point I was making! Yes I would agree that "lies" is probably too strong.

 

 

Going back a few posts about school kids breaking up, in Scotland they broke up two weeks earlier so that should give us some idea what to expect. Are any of you data analysts checking out the position north of the border? Though we could have the issue of different regulations also having to be taken into account!

[Reorte]

2 hours ago, Hobby said:

 

Glad someone actually saw the point I was making! Yes I would agree that "lies" is probably too strong.

 

 

Going back a few posts about school kids breaking up, in Scotland they broke up two weeks earlier so that should give us some idea what to expect. Are any of you data analysts checking out the position north of the border? Though we could have the issue of different regulations also having to be taken into account!

Scotland's rate of new cases has been in decline for a while now, although there are several possible factors for the difference (all of which could contribute to differing degrees) - schools breaking up earlier, different rules, and not having a significant proportion of the country crowding in to pubs to watch football as recently.

[hayfield]

2 hours ago, Hobby said:

 

Glad someone actually saw the point I was making! Yes I would agree that "lies" is probably too strong.

 

 

 

 

 

 

I am probably as guilty as the next man in sometimes taking things at face value

 

The headlines were on or around the 15th we had just over 50,000 new infections, the facts are that these were reported cases on that day, which may or may not have been from the day before

 

The facts are that between the 14 & 16th of this month we saw a massive peak in infections 54k, 60k & 54k on the 3 days in question, however either side of these figures were much lower, however whilst these numbers occurred 10 days or so ago they are affecting the reported figures at this time

 

As shown by others we cannot even compare figures we had earlier this year with the recent ones, simply because of the number of people who have some form of immunity. This being the case how can we compare what's happening here with what's happening elsewhere when they have a completely different testing regime or ability

 

Likewise in hindsight it shows  how terribly wrong those who were criticising this country by comparing us with other countries who's reporting standards are different to not only ours but others as well.

 

I like many others watch the Worldometer, but is it a fair comparison, certainly does not bare out the impressions I have formed from the news media, Perhaps a guide or an indication of what is happening  ? 

 

Likewise I popped into our local Co-oP this morning for milk 100% of customers wearing masks, no 40%/60%  This may not be the case all day or every day, its just what I have seen

 

 

[Jonboy]

I cannot remember if it was here or another forum I mentioned it on but at work we compared notes with a Japanese supplier last summer, when people were comparing the uk rates to Asia.

 

They said that to be declared as a COVID case there at that point, you had to have a positive test, to get a test you had to be extremely ill and already admitted to hospital.

[iL Dottore]

23 hours ago, AY Mod said:

 

More people don't die because we test more; more people die here because we have more cases.

Not only that, the UK has more obesity, Type II Diabetes and heart disease than comparable European countries. All of which are significant risk factors for CoVID related mortality. Then add into the mix an absence of social responsibility amongst far too many of the populace….. 
 

it’s no wonder the UK and the US haven’t fared as well as other countries.

 

Vaccines aren’t a panacea, they are just one of many tools to be used in fighting this pandemic.

[caradoc]

48 minutes ago, Reorte said:

Scotland's rate of new cases has been in decline for a while now, although there are several possible factors for the difference (all of which could contribute to differing degrees) - schools breaking up earlier, different rules, and not having a significant proportion of the country crowding in to pubs to watch football as recently.

 

Just after the schools had finished here in Scotland I arrived at Glasgow Central on a train which then formed a return service to Ayrshire; I could barely get off the train thanks to the crowds, mainly but not entirely young people, trying to force their way in first to grab seats. And thanks to the fine weather, Ayrshire trains seem to have been as busy ever since. So we will have to see the effect on cases.

[Reorte]

24 minutes ago, Jonboy said:

I cannot remember if it was here or another forum I mentioned it on but at work we compared notes with a Japanese supplier last summer, when people were comparing the uk rates to Asia.

 

They said that to be declared as a COVID case there at that point, you had to have a positive test, to get a test you had to be extremely ill and already admitted to hospital.

Last summer we weren't quite in that position but it still had to be almost certain you had Covid before you could get a test; I possibly had it then but was told I didn't qualify due to not having enough of the main symptoms (only a slight cough and probably no temperature, not that I've got a suitable thermometer to check). What I mostly had was a constant headache and legs that ached when I sat or lay down, but which were OK when moving around. Nothing serious, a couple of paracetomal was sufficient to deal with it for a while, but I'd be surprised if it was something else.

[Neil]

Though it's difficult to compare statistics from country to country that doesn't mean that there's no point to comparisons. If we blind ourselves to the successes and failures of others then we lose the possibility of doing better than the course we would otherwise be destined to follow. I've also a feeling that we're guilty of picking and choosing which statistics we would want to accord validity to and use for comparisons. Depending on whether or not you would broadly support the government you might want to compare the UK vaccination rate with other countries or you might want to compare the death or infection rates per head of population. Comparisons are valid, have purpose, and should not be dismissed because we can't exactly match/measure one against the other; in many cases it's obvious where one course of action is working and where another is not.

[Nearholmer]

47 minutes ago, iL Dottore said:

Not only that, the UK has more obesity, Type II Diabetes and heart disease than comparable European countries

There’s no question that the U.K. went into this in bad shape, not only in terms of the poor health of a significant proportion of the population, but in terms of the critical care capacity of our health service, which was very low indeed compared with other highly prosperous nations, and while it has been increased at double-plus speed, nobody can magic-up trained and experienced staff at short notice, even if they can magic-up space, beds, and machine that go ‘ping’.

 

Clearly, we won’t know with certainty until it’s over whether, in relative terms, we’ve done well or badly overall, but certainly until the vaccine deployment, which has definitely gone well, it felt to me as if we were doing pretty poorly.

 

As regards “running comparisons”, if you factor into mind a degree of difference in reporting criteria, and don’t get hung-up on tenths of percents, it’s perfectly reasonable to compare. I use Statista, because they have a strong reputation for rigour and transparency in what they record, but I think Worldometer is probably reliable too.

Edited July 25, 2021 by Nearholmer

[beast66606]

19 hours ago, AY Mod said:

 

People do that, not the data.

 

That depends what "the data" is - as Mark Twain once said "there's lies, damn lies and choosing the data set which backs up your hypothesis" - when I worked on NHS applications years ago we used to provided stats, there was very careful selection (by our customer, the NHS) of the data used to provide such stats - probably all changed now of course <cough>, it's been well over 10 years since I was involved

[alastairq]

I have aches & pains all over now & then, mainly legs....but then, that could equally be old age creeping up?

 

I test every week....and every week prove negative.

Not requiring doctor's visits, I am possibly deemed to be relatively healthy, so don't qualify for damn all!  Despite being over 70!

 

I'd be curious to see if I have ever had covid, and not noticed....especially last year when I previously failed to qualify for any sort of attention...?

This covid thing has emphasises how unimportant I now am to society as a  whole....Why is it one has to get into bleat mode before anyone takes any notice???

Oh well, back to annoying the youngsters in their cars....

[Hobby]

The problem is, @Neil, that when the Press and social media users have used the stats from other countries they have used them without pointing out the differences of how they are taken and recorded. The classic is total deaths, the UK has a very specific way of measuring Covid deaths which can be very different to other countries but the way it's reported you'd think it was exactly the same wherever you go.  Which it isn't.

 

I agree that we can learn from other countries, as they can from us, but we cannot compare like for like like many people do.

 

https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-a-year-on-from-lockdown-watershed-moment-brings-some-relief-but-this-is-far-from-over-12254506

 

https://publichealthmatters.blog.gov.uk/2020/08/12/behind-the-headlines-counting-covid-19-deaths/

[hayfield]

31 minutes ago, Hobby said:

The problem is, @Neil, that when the Press and social media users have used the stats from other countries they have used them without pointing out the differences of how they are taken and recorded. The classic is total deaths, the UK has a very specific way of measuring Covid deaths which can be very different to other countries but the way it's reported you'd think it was exactly the same wherever you go.  Which it isn't.

 

I agree that we can learn from other countries, as they can from us, but we cannot compare like for like like many people do.

 

https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-a-year-on-from-lockdown-watershed-moment-brings-some-relief-but-this-is-far-from-over-12254506

 

https://publichealthmatters.blog.gov.uk/2020/08/12/behind-the-headlines-counting-covid-19-deaths/

 

Reading these two links simply prove how hard it is to have one common standard, lets face it many 2nd and 3rd world countries health system may not have the capacity to either test many people and or explore the cause of death. Still we are where we are now and in a far better position than many countries

 

 

[Bernard Lamb]

My son in law was at the football the other week. Not 100% as to this being the source but it was the only place he had been to.

A few days later he had a temperature and was feeling a bit weak.

He had a bout of coughing during the night and tested positive next morning.

The coughing got worse and so they contacted NHS and they made the decision to put him in a virtual covid ward.

A local hospital supplied the monitoring equipment. There was quite a problem in actually getting it.

He was then diagnosed with covid induced asthma and given some very powerful steroids followed by some less strong medication.

The next three nights he did not sleep and was continually coughing up blood.

NHS would phone three times a day to collect the latest readings.

By this time my daughter also had covid and was also quite ill.

At 8.00 this morning he was signed off but is still coughing up blood but in much smaller quantities.

He was double jabbed some weeks ago and had covid back in March 2020.

She is double jabbed but the second dose was only a few weeks ago.

The remark yesterday by the Health Minister did not go down very well in our household.

I know that we have a hawk or two on here and that stories like this will not make you change you mind.

I just hope that you never have an experience like this.

Pleas take note that this disease is still very dangerous.

Bernard

 

[alastairq]

20 minutes ago, Bernard Lamb said:

He was then diagnosed with covid induced asthma

Had your son already received an asthma diagnosis. previously?