Hornby - Warley Model Railway Exhibition Special announcement 26.11.22

[Les1952]

13 hours ago, Steamport Southport said:

 

 

These are already ordered, so they are already bought. So that point is moot. They just need someone to physically put them down as being despatched and take the money from the purchasers account.

 

 

Jason

 

From Hornby's accounts point of view pre-orders don't show on the balance sheet until they are paid for.

 

Just a thought

Les

 

[PeterStiles]

55 minutes ago, Dunsignalling said:

What Hornby seems unable to grasp is that "competitors" only become a real problem where duplication occurs.

well, yes and no

 

For us on these forums "duplication" is quite detailed = Is there a model of locomotive, class "X" as it was represented in year "Y".

 

For the "person on the street" its wider - "is there a box with a train in it that'll look nice?" and I believe that those people outnumber us on these forums by a fair factor.

 

The fact that Bachmann sell "trains" and Hornby sell "trains" is duplication to most of the populous.

 

 

 

[Dunsignalling]

43 minutes ago, PeterStiles said:

well, yes and no

 

For us on these forums "duplication" is quite detailed = Is there a model of locomotive, class "X" as it was represented in year "Y".

 

For the "person on the street" its wider - "is there a box with a train in it that'll look nice?" and I believe that those people outnumber us on these forums by a fair factor.

 

The fact that Bachmann sell "trains" and Hornby sell "trains" is duplication to most of the populous.

 

 

 

True, but most of the populous by definition, don't buy either.

 

For those that decide to do so, at least at train-set level, it won't be all that easy to find anything beyond Hornby.  

Edited November 25, 2022 by Dunsignalling

[PeterStiles]

2 minutes ago, Dunsignalling said:

True, but most of the populous by definition, don't buy either.

Agreed.

 

But I'd still suggest that the number of people who *do* buy Model Trains outnumber the number of people "Modelling Railways" (as we, here, purport to). 

[Dunsignalling]

6 minutes ago, PeterStiles said:

Agreed.

 

But I'd still suggest that the number of people who *do* buy Model Trains outnumber the number of people "Modelling Railways" (as we, here, purport to). 

The conventional wisdom expressed on here (which I don't entirely accept) is that, even if they've ever heard of other brands, they'll only actually be interested in the "household name".

 

That may be largely true, but it's rather insulting of the ability of large numbers of people to make rational purchasing decisions.

Edited November 25, 2022 by Dunsignalling

[Legend]

33 minutes ago, PeterStiles said:

Agreed.

 

But I'd still suggest that the number of people who *do* buy Model Trains outnumber the number of people "Modelling Railways" (as we, here, purport to). 

 

I'm not so sure that holds true anymore.  There used to be a big trainset market bought as toys or for people who may become interested in modelling/trains.  But I rather think that's gone out of fashion, which is why you only see limited sets, if any, in Smyths or Argos.  These days I do think the majority of trains are bought by people modelling railways ie already in the hobby. This would go someway to explaining the success of companies like Accurascale and Bachmann (good detail,high cost) where goods are bought by enthusiasts and the relative decline of Hornby, less general trainset market.

 

The progress of TT:120 aimed at this latter market will be interesting and is a big gamble.

Edited November 25, 2022 by Legend

[Roddy Angus]

3 hours ago, PeterStiles said:

For the "person on the street" its wider - "is there a box with a train in it that'll look nice?" and I believe that those people outnumber us on these forums by a fair factor.

Agreed.  The reality is that if someone is looking for a train set for a youngster, it is likely to be a Hornby set.  The only other manufacturer who produces train sets, in 00, is Bachmann, and they do not have much market penetration outside specialist model shops.  Whilst some people may not like it, without Hornby there would be a lot fewer kids getting an interest in trains, unless they know someone who can enthuse them.

 

Unless another manufacturer steps up and produces cheap train sets, which will sell in Argos, Asda etc., then our Hobby will be a lot smaller without Hornby encouraging new blood into the rail modelling scene.

 

Although some people may not like Hornby's modern locomotives, they are difficult to beat when it comes to steam trains and they are second to none for starter sets.

 

Roddy

[Delta_Who]

19 hours ago, Dunsignalling said:

The days of their market share in OO exceeding that of the combined competition are numbered, if not already past, and they need to refocus the model railway side of the business accordingly. TT:120 is clearly a major (if somewhat uncertain) plank in that but is unlikely to be sufficient on its own.

 

I dunno about numbered. The only notable dominance lost for Hornby has been in the Diesel space (which they've arguably let go rather than lost). They still hold a pretty sizeable hold in the steam and modern emu spectrum. Realistically, whilst the likes of Cavalax/Accurascale/Rapido produce some fantastic quality stuff, they are only really challenging Hornby on 2-4 products each on average. Hardly a "Hornby is dead" situation. Also the fact that their retail grew, but lost a large amount suggests a higher expenditure. We'll see over the months where that money has gone to.

 

I would also agree on Hornby's long-term market ambitions. What they did with the 9F was good. Loyalty schemes is good. TT expansion an excellent idea. Now they need a focus to tighten up their OO offerings and range back to how we were 2006-2009 with a "next-generation" consistency.

 

 

[Delta_Who]

Anyway, doom and gloom aside... looking forward to whatever comes out of Warley tomorrow. Shame I won't be there on Saturday due to railstrikes :(

[The Stationmaster]

19 hours ago, john new said:

Wish list hope or a rumoured fact?

 

Total fantasy.  the ownership is no different today from what it was last week, or the week before.  The group has 29.8 million shares in issue and so far today 29,000 have changed hands, yesterday hardly, if any, above 1,000 changed hands.  New CEO yes - that was announced back on the 15th.  So ignore the fantasies and look at the facts, verious.

 

At this point last year they had £0.9 million cash in hand. this year at the same point they are £4.9 million in debt - but that is way below their borrowing limits and they have been spending a lot this year on tooling plus the launch costs of TT120.  So a big change there. notwithstanding their relatively small  (3%) increase in revenues compared with last year isn't necessarily a danger sign.  However what  might be a bit concerning is the fact that one report mentions an increase in direct sales to 50% - although that was no way a statement qualified by any reference to brands or anything else.  But if it relates to total revenue it could be indicative that sales haven't grown at all because direct sales create more revenue than sales via retailers;  basically it is a statement which needs much greater explanation and qualkification

 

They still have problems getting product to market and of course they're not alone in that along with other brands using Chinese manufacturing sites.  In my view their most worrying statement in these results is this one -

"...  A year ago, sales in the second half were held back by supply chain

 disruption, but we are now in a stronger position, having taken strategic decisions to raise stocks to support sales and avoid shortages. As we are heading into our key Christmas trading period it is hard to predict the outcome for the full year results, but we are well-placed, with our order book very strong and higher than it was a year ago."

 

If their order book includes orders placed by retailers we know what has happened previously so if, again, they short deliver against trade orders then talking about the order book is - I think - a form of wishful thinking.  And a lot depends on factory performance in China and getting that stock into the UK and sold before the end of March.  They are now, I think, in a position where an awful lot depends entirely on deliveries from China and that is in many respects beyond their control.

 

Edited November 25, 2022 by The Stationmaster
coprrect typos

[Dunsignalling]

1 hour ago, Delta_Who said:

 

I dunno about numbered. The only notable dominance lost for Hornby has been in the Diesel space (which they've arguably let go rather than lost). They still hold a pretty sizeable hold in the steam and modern emu spectrum. Realistically, whilst the likes of Cavalax/Accurascale/Rapido produce some fantastic quality stuff, they are only really challenging Hornby on 2-4 products each on average. Hardly a "Hornby is dead" situation. Also the fact that their retail grew, but lost a large amount suggests a higher expenditure. We'll see over the months where that money has gone to.

 

I would also agree on Hornby's long-term market ambitions. What they did with the 9F was good. Loyalty schemes is good. TT expansion an excellent idea. Now they need a focus to tighten up their OO offerings and range back to how we were 2006-2009 with a "next-generation" consistency.

 

 

Though, as you have demonstrated, while dazzled by the novelty of Accurascale, Cavalex, Rapido et al, it's easy to ignore the substantial presence of Heljan, the growing spread of Dapol/Rails, and a resurgent Bachmann who seem to be "on the move" in a way they haven't been for several years.  

 

I agree that Hornby has evidently given up on the diesel loco segment, but it's debateable whether that stemmed from an active decision to concentrate on steam and unit models, or a judgement that they could take on the new boys on quality or price but not both, and that there really isn't room for yet more models of the popular classes if they are to sell in the volumes Hornby want/need them to. 

 

Whatever the balance struck, it's painfully clear that OO is no longer a sinecure for Hornby in the way it has been in the past, and they fear that their market share may be declining towards a point where it ceases to be sufficient to support them in the manner to which they have been accustomed.

 

Having identified the question, the answer they have come up with is TT:120. It's a perfectly rational action under the circumstances, but it is no sense a cheap fix or a an odds-on racing favourite. Despite having incumbent competition, N or O would probably have been less risky, at least in the short term. As for the new scale, it'll be three or four years before we can judge with any certainty how successful it has been.

 

The danger is that Hornby might take their eyes off the ball in OO, exacerbating the very issue they are trying to counteract by diversification.

 

John 

Edited November 25, 2022 by Dunsignalling

[Delta_Who]

17 minutes ago, Dunsignalling said:

Though, as you have demonstrated, while dazzled by the novelty of Accurascale, Cavalex, Rapido et al, it's easy to ignore the substantial presence of Heljan, the growing spread of Dapol, and a resurgent Bachmann who seem to be "on the move" in a way they haven't been for several years.  

 

I agree that Hornby has evidently given up on the diesel loco segment, but it's debateable whether that stemmed from an active decision to concentrate on steam and unit models, or a judgement that they could take on the new boys on quality or price but not both, and that there really isn't room for yet more models of the popular classes if they are to sell in the volumes Hornby want/need them to. 

 

Whatever the balance struck, it's painfully clear that OO is no longer a sinecure for Hornby in the way it has been in the past, and they fear that their market share may be declining towards a point where it ceases to be sufficient to support them in the manner to which they have been accustomed.

 

Having identified the question, the answer they have come up with is TT:120. It's a perfectly rational action under the circumstances, but it is no sense a cheap fix or a an odds-on racing favourite. Despite having incumbent competition, N or O would probably have been less risky, at least in the short term. As for the new scale, it'll be three or four years before we can judge with any certainty how successful it has been.

 

The danger is that Hornby might take their eyes off the ball in OO, exacerbating the very issue they are trying to counteract by diversification.

 

John 

 

Spot on. Not sure about O-gauge. At the very least though... it's an excuse to blow up the Bassett-Lowke brand and restart from scratch. Abysmal handling.

TT as you said is just a waiting game. That being said... the commentary is very different from what you get here on RMWeb vs everywhere else. I'm in groups where people have already stockpiled and planned their scenic layouts for TT/HSTs preordered. Having been the the Kings Cross reveal, there was a palpable excitement "That would look good as my coffee table"... "Housing space is restricted in London, so this is perfect". So I guess the only concern here for the scale is exposure.

 

[McC]

1 hour ago, Delta_Who said:

Accurascale...produce some fantastic quality stuff, they are only really challenging Hornby on 2-4 products each on average.

 

For clarity we have 30 active lines / ranges at the moment, in 4 years, and at least that again to launch in the next 2, so. a smidge more than 2-4 products :) 

[Dunsignalling]

10 minutes ago, Delta_Who said:

 

Spot on. Not sure about O-gauge. At the very least though... it's an excuse to blow up the Bassett-Lowke brand and restart from scratch. Abysmal handling.
 

 

Hopefully Hornby has learned a valuable lesson from their wasting (in both senses of the word) of the Bassett Lowke brand!

 

[blueeighties]

A sensible and decent set of trading terms for the trade? Fantasy stuff admittedly.....

[TheQ]

22 hours ago, Michael Hodgson said:

I've eaten reindeer meat in Lapland but I've never tasted grilled giraffe. 🙃

You've eaten Rudolph, no one will get anything for Christmas now...

[The Stationmaster]

10 minutes ago, TheQ said:

You've eaten Rudolph, no one will get anything for Christmas now...

I must admit that I found it difficult to decide if I looked Rudolf best in soup or stew - so went for seconds of both (just to make clear in case someone mentions guttony that they were served in different meals in different places).😇

[luke_stevens]

23 hours ago, Michael Hodgson said:

I've eaten reindeer meat in Lapland but I've never tasted grilled giraffe. 🙃

 

Best I can find but no Giraffe available in the UK.

https://www.keziefoods.co.uk/product-category/exotic-meats/

Maybe tomorrow announcement is that Hornby is moving into distributing exotic meats?

 

Luke

 

[PaulRhB]

4 minutes ago, Dunsignalling said:

 

Hopefully Hornby has learned a valuable lesson from their wasting (in both senses of the word) of the Bassett Lowke brand!

 

Yep a huge opportunity missed in using it as a premium brand rather than railroadish level one! They should have looked at why Bugatti, Aston Martin, Landrover etc were bought up by big brands to sell their luxury models. Names with history linked to big prices work and the revised O gauge BL under Corgi still had an aura of quality even if it didn’t set the world alight because coarse scale O is a pretty niche market. ‘Steampunk by Hornby’ would have probably got more attention too than just the BL name. 
I think they believe their brand is everything yet they aren’t really pushing that brand image outside the hobby except by insisting you have to have a big window display to be a Tier 1 retailer. 
Hornby & Basset Lowke merchandise given out in competitions to get it on the front of magazines in the model, wargaming and cosplay markets? It’s fine putting it in your Instagram, Facebook etc but how do you get people to your account? They’re sponsoring the Flying Scotsman celebrations but in the press I saw plenty of pics of FS at Kings Cross but not one Hornby logo despite knowing the TT stand was on the concourse. Get some Hornby logos on the support coach, it’ll irritate the hell out of photographers mind 😉
Let’s hope the new ceo has some actual ideas and attention to detail detail detail 😆

[geoffers]

23 hours ago, Michael Hodgson said:

I've eaten reindeer meat in Lapland but I've never tasted grilled giraffe. 🙃

Not in Lapland but at a smorgasbord put on by a posh hotel in Bahrain many moons ago. No giraffe, though, but have tried camel.

[The Stationmaster]

16 minutes ago, luke_stevens said:

 

Best I can find but no Giraffe available in the UK.

https://www.keziefoods.co.uk/product-category/exotic-meats/

Maybe tomorrow announcement is that Hornby is moving into distributing exotic meats?

 

Luke

 

A goodly selection and I see they do kangaroo fillet which, on past experience,  is very nice.  And definitely encouraging to see their prices there especially after Mrs Stationmaster's comments about today's meat prices in Waitrose.  

[luke_stevens]

26 minutes ago, PaulRhB said:

<snip>

I saw plenty of pics of FS at Kings Cross but not one Hornby logo despite knowing the TT stand was on the concourse. Get some Hornby logos on the support coach, it’ll irritate the hell out of photographers mind 😉

<snip>

 

Should have repainted the tender with the Hornby logo as was done to an HST!

 

Luke

[Dunsignalling]

14 minutes ago, luke_stevens said:

 

Should have repainted the tender with the Hornby logo as was done to an HST!

 

Luke

 

Painted in red livery lined out in yellow, too?

[Delta_Who]

1 hour ago, McC said:

 

For clarity we have 30 active lines / ranges at the moment, in 4 years, and at least that again to launch in the next 2, so. a smidge more than 2-4 products :) 

You could of course... lay-out the Accurascale_Product_Development_Plan.pdf for us... for.... verification purposes

 

[CUCKOO LINE]

And then you could watch the Hornby announcements following !