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Hornby 2023 annual results


BachelorBoy
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1 hour ago, Ravenser said:

It could well be that the stock buildup involves a lot of Airfix,

 

You're guessing again and making it sound like a fact.

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34 minutes ago, Ravenser said:

 

What is the feeling about Airfix in its market? Is that seen as a strong leading kit-maker ? Are they showing signs of easing off on big high-end new tooling? 

 

The Airfix Club seems to bulk quite large in that market


Difficult to give a definitive answer but as a guide. We stock 9 different railway  loco manufacturers products. It’s late so l may have missed one.

When doing an audit a few weeks ago, we counted 50+ plastic kit manufacturers that we stock. We stock Humbrol, but we have at least seven other paint ranges. 
 The 50 or so other kit manufacturers outsell Airfix but they would have too or we wouldn’t stock them. Airfix is still a major, major brand. Even the Vintage range sells extremely well. Very old kits at modern day prices. Not unusual to sell out of Airfix new releases very quickly, sometimes difficult to get them in the first place. 
 

Your remark regarding the build up of Airfix is highly unlikely as they distribute through quite a lot of wholesalers and we sometimes have to check and use every one to get Airfix stock.

 

 

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I just had chance to read this report, which has a more “to the point” approach to previous years.

 

One aspect I noticed was the introduction of co2 emissions to the report (though it lacks the emissions of their suppliers, logistics, web provider etc) which many industries now mandate to their suppliers to provide and avoids hiding devils in someone elses details.


Ive a selection of quotes I pulled from the report…

 

Quote

Traffic to the site increased by +5% year on year and transaction volumes grew by +37%, driven by a +29% improvement on conversion, up to c2% across the year.

 

Quote

 

This investment enabled a 49% increase in digital revenues last year. Whilst D2C sales were only c15.5% of total sales, representing c8% of volume, this clearly highlights the potential for future growth.

 

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TT:120 revenues to date are c£1.5 million.

 

 

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Digital performance was one of the highlights of the year, delivering a 49% revenue uplift from £5.7 million to £8.5 million.

 

 

On balance TT got off to a good start £1.5mn.

Two trainsets at an average of £200 is 7500 sets (or average 3750 each)  (dont forget they had track, some other locos etc to sell also in this window).

 

The hard part is maintaining that level of demand, though I always caution Hornbys rush to repeat order something successful, only to end up stuck with it in the next go…
 

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Regular deliveries of further volumes of sets between August 2023 and January 2024, along with additional locos, coaches and system products will drive a second significant uplift in growth of TT:120 throughout the coming year.

 

To me the real test is the ebay resale market, a year from now how many people are keeping their TT set and is the value holding, or are people cashing in once the novelty wears off.

The other test is the TT club renewal, once it becomes paid for.

But I do caution a standard SKU trainset is a hard thing to maintain longterm as it becomes stale, unless were talking certain staples for trainsets (4472, 4468 etc).

 

subtract £1,5mn from the website sales (2022 c5.5m) to c£8.5m (becomes £7mn) and suddenly website growth isnt as good.

 

Hobby Rewards

 

is a definite winner (both as a consumer I have taken advantage of it) and as a sales facilitator its showing its mark in the report. …


 

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36,000 customers have signed up since launch and on average, spend from Hobby Rewards members is c2.5 times greater than that of non-members.
 

 

Repeat customers is a very good metric in any report, and tonight I see they are offering 2x on some selective items (mostly coaches).

I would go as far as to suggest the Hobby rewards is making the website grow, but at a price as I feel it maybe taking people like me away from retailer, and to their website, rather than building new markets. This is because as hobby rewards combined with the club discount under cuts the retailer prices.

 

(I did note the complete absence of any mention of the clubs).

 

 

Quote

We are, therefore, starting the process of reengineering a capsule range that allows us to present entry level products, across some of our key brands, at prices that are more attractive to some domestic partners and to new markets and distributors. Bringing new customers to our brands in an affordable way is critical to future growth.

 

This capsule of entry level product is likely to include re-engineered versions of products from the Airfix, Scalextric and Hornby ranges.

 

I hope… this means down grading to railroad some products that were previously main range.

I fear … this means downgrading railroad to tat level.

I guess.. its actually inferences to remergence of things like the class 110, railroad 67 etc…

 

Quote

The current inventory position clearly points to an over-commitment of stock ahead of increased sales, but part of the story also relates to the specifics of product development.

 

In some instances, like the TT:120 launch highlighted earlier, we were not ambitious enough in our initial commitments, and in other cases we find ourselves over-stocked on slower moving lines.

 

We need to improve the effectiveness of the linear relationship between analysis of product performance, resultant product development, ranging, inventory management and merchandising. This will have a positive impact on our inventory position, working capital and top line performance.

 

Feeding the outputs of the brand work, indicated above, through the product development process will also go some way to ensure that we are developing product and ranges, across all brands, in a purposeful and informed way into the future.


I would agree with some of this analysis… making LNER mk3’s no less than 3x but only 1 set of LNER power cars, and ignoring EMR seems odd. Similarly the huge range of Generic pre-grouping coaches, but in many cases without a loco seems without purpose.

 

Dublo seems to have lost its way and risks going from a long term high value niche, to a saturated market.

 

I read the new approach as let the brand and sales guide the product roadmap.

if this means the end of competitive duplication thats only a good thing.

 

Quote

 

This brand-led, customer-led, structured, approach to product selection is something that has not had enough focus in recent years and is a contributor to the current Inventory position.

 

I dont know how anyone else read this line, but to me it read like a killer blow about someone.

 

Quote

 

An increase in emphasis on commercial analysis of performance of specific product categories, and subject matter, will improve the quality of our decision-making moving forwards.  

 

Together with lots of references to the CRM tool and website analysis suggests the computer is going to guide the product road map.

In a hobby as small and niche like ours ?

 

Ultimately computers and analysis produce data, information but knowledge and wisdom remain human tasks for now, and perhaps a few more years before AI takes over the modelling of the range.

 

I’m not saying change wasnt needed, I think it was and this is refreshing to read in the report.. but too much reliance on CRM tools is going to just feed me “more unrelated buy this xyz for your last purchase”… adverts.

 

The challenge for Hornby is being smarter than the customer looking to go shopping, convincing them they need a TFW 67 to go with their Gresley coaches isnt going to work… even if they selected Midland Pullman HST coaches to go with it wont work, even if the CRM learns the buyer is in era 11.


What I’m not seeing in the report is any field research… No CRM is going to suggest Hornby makes a new livery, or suggest a number for a loco to replicate thats just been overhauled…. Hornby arent selling paper, pens and staplers, but I do read a lean towards standard SKUs and  long term rinse / repeat product lines..

 

this hobby is a fashion not a utility.


 

Quote

Furthermore, we have been experimenting with the development of a retail format. The fact that we own a set of established, complementary, yet differentiated brands, that can be combined in a physical format that is powerful and experiential, presents a great opportunity to reach, and appeal to, a wide demographic of new customers.

 

We have spent time and money developing a solution and speaking to potential partners who have cited interest in helping us roll out the format. The first expression of the retail experience will be opened in Margate, on the site of the current Hornby Visitor Centre, with the ambition of opening further sites in a more traditional retail environment, in 2024 and beyond.
 

 

only way I read this is more Hornby retail outlets.
Theres plenty of high street retail outlets empty these days, and for a reason. The new CEO is from a retail chain that just demised, if anything to me that is a warning.

This plan does rather suggest they havent considered their own retailer network, who by reading this report may feel further marginalised.

 

My overall reading of this report today suggests a credible new approach. 

However i’m not sure its good reading more modellers like ourselves.


If the new guys succeeds in making Hornby profitable its a good achievement but My key takeaways from reading this makes me feel like Hornby is eyeing a future is lower price, lower spec, lower quality models sold increasingly via web and Hornby managed retail channels.

 

it might be good for the company but it further removes me from being a customer and that means i’m less interested in filling out automated satisfaction surveys from a CRM… if they ask for feedback, I suspect from some quarters they may get it delivered to them in spades and may find it just too uncomfortable to read, and simply ignore it.

 

Edited by adb968008
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Regarding the very informative interpretation by adb968008 above, l interpreted the report in a very similar manner. 
 

What he has additionally highlighted was the subject of much trade chat last night. The Clubs. Hornby opened up the TT120 Collectors Club at no cost to the consumer and from memory it gave the members 15% discount. All the other Hornby branded clubs give you 10% discount off the direct and l believe Concessions sales. Paid for Membership. Then there is the Hobby Rewards discount.

 

Moving into the Retail sector, l presume they will have to continue with these Club discounts? The margin they save by not selling to the trade won’t go very far in my opinion. If they decide or have decided to open retail outlets l will use my own town as an example. Around 100 yards from our shop is the actual Town Centre. Rents in there can be doubled and even tripled, the business rates even higher. Now if they pick say, Liverpool or Manchester you can really start to spend some serious margin. Then there is the staffing, movement of stock will presumably cost them the same as sending it to current retailers, that’s before they pay utilities, shoplifting, security and everything else that goes with running an outlet. 

One thing that is clear, they seem to have held back on plenty of stock to fill their shops if that’s the way they are going.

 

Something Hornby never seem to appreciate is the amount of service they actually get from their retailers. I wish I had a pound for every item that we put right either after sale or before it hits the shelves. Easier in the long run than requesting a return and or replacement. Airfix gift sets brought back as the mini pots of paint are bone dry, we don’t return them that’s too petty and time consuming just another kit for the spares box. 
 

I really do hope l am way off the mark with my interpretation.

 

(Off topic, but as I’ve mentioned security. I was somewhat amazed to see a factor in arriving at our shops Rateable Value was that we had cctv !)
 

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One and a half million quid in TT120 sales, but how much profit? How much has the tooling for locos, rolling stock and track cost? Normally these costs would be spread over the production life of the model but this will only work if TT120 makes steady progress and becomes an established scale rather than a flash in the pan.

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I doubt they’d be looking at profit from TT in the first year, in fact given the comments about demand surprising them, it sounds like they were intending a cautious start but it’s exceeded expectations. As I say, £1.5m in first few months with digital sets on the horizon linked to the HM 7000 system suggests they could easily surpass £4m in the first 12 months. 
 

The shops are interesting. They talk about them being experiential and so I could foresee interactive activities across their brands (scalextric track and competitions, Airfix kit building for families and, with HM 7000, bring your own locomotive to operate on an in-store layout. ) . In shopping centres, that could create quite a buzz. They’re seemingly testing the concept at Margate first, so that’s the time to see how it stacks up.  

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Looking at the finances…

 

Growth from £53.7m to £55.1mn sales.

it would appear the expectation was growth to £60mn, and was missed.

i’m guessing that £60mn would include the TT120 launch in that number.

 

The report indicates growth in stock value from £16mn to £21m.

They report a margin of 49%.

Would it be fair to say they have 3/4 of years sales revenue currently sitting in the warehouse at year end ?

 

This hobby is a fashion, so what is the fashion items they had in stock that did not sell, and is it something they can sell ?

 

When I looked over the website, I see more coaches than I would ever want or need…. APT, Mk4’s, mk3’s, Generics, Azuma its all there…

I recall bemoaning that in the run up to christmas nothing interesting was released.

Much of what was in stock, had been in stock for months.

 

I bought pretty much nothing Hornby up-to christmas (and i’m all all rounder hobbyist, and I spend more than I should, not any set niche), yet i felt dissapointed that nothing was coming.

The report suggests they stocked up and the customers didnt come.

 

so to me at least, there is a disconnect there between consumer and company.


£5mn missed sales target suggests that I am not alone.

 

In my experience Ive seen many cases where an item with a substantial price increase, stunts its sales and never recovers as it falls off peoples radars when other newer items come along.


If this stock increase is all of the above, all the rewards in the world arent going to easily shift it.

 

However more risky is reproducing out of stock items, to fill range gaps…. With APT coaches, will people buy them (complete with over sized capacitors) if they made more power cars ? Will making more LNER power cars clear the Mk3’s ? (Its 4 years now since their demise on LNER, the world is moving on).


whats concerning for me is the “Group and Company Statements of Financial Position as at 31 March 2023”

 

with all the accounts done, Hornby has net assets of £36m in March 2023, against £43mn last year. Hornby is £7mn smaller than last year, that trend cannot continue for much longer.

 

Those primary net assets are £21mn of inventories, and £12mn of equipment … (i take this to be stock and tooling)… a portion of which maybe quite old, out of fashion and surpassed by competitors offerings.

 

Debts…

 

Quote

The facility with STB is a floating facility based on the current asset position capped at £12 million ends October 2024 and carries a margin of 2.5‐3% over base rate

 

So thats 7.5% -8% today…?

 

Quote

The Phoenix Facility is a £9 million facility which attracts interest at a margin of 5% over SONIA on funds drawn. Undrawn funds attract a non‐utilisation fee of the higher of 1% or SONIA. This facility is currently due to expire December 2023.

 

SONiA last night was 4.43%… so is that 9.43% on funds used, 6% on the rest ?

Anyone with a mortgage is feeling it, so at a corporate level this is not cheap borrowing.

 

Whilst I understand companies typically work in 5 year cycles, continued growth post covid feels ambitious to me. Other companies have fallen foul to this as well (Peloton, Netflix for example ). Acting like an oil tanker in a storm is not a good place to be.

 

Reading the report comes across like a revision lesson for recent history, with all the last years global events regurgitated as to why things went wrong.

 

I could write for days on how I think Hornby could evolve, but no one would really listen and I doubt anyone there would care. I suspect i’m not alone in that thought, and we all just collectively get dismissed as “haters” when we are really far more to the opposite.

imo Hornby needs to become much more agile and nimble, reacting faster to market changes. This maybe achieved by letting the brands have more autonomy and self control and devolving the mother ship in to a parental role.


Olivers definitely got work cut out, but the first lesson imo to learn, is today this is fashion, not consumables… if changing mode it carries time and cost, sticking as is may buy time and save cost, but at expense of the future.

 

Have I bought Hornby products this year, yes, much less than I used to, and none of it was last years in stock items.

What would make me buy last years stock items… a sale… its the only way for some of it. If they got creative (and I mean creative in a way they have never done before), they could actually make greater return on it… theres some nuggets of ideas in the old stuff, but I doubt they see that potential, or viably see it perhaps ?

 

Borrowing more to buy new stock carries high interest premiums, waiting to sell whats in the warehouse at circa rrp carries time premiums… Both are going to hit the bottom line…

The economy is what it is (and some of us have been predicting this for a while).


a Rebuilding year ?, I think that time has passed, some action is needed.
I dont read the report as good news at all and left feeling there is a stalemate and a clock ticking.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited by adb968008
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5 minutes ago, Ricochet said:


£5.9 million is an awful lot to lose for a business of Hornby's size, how is that sustainable? Can only assume they are being bankrolled by someone.

Depends what the plan was - it could be they expected a loss due to the development of TT120 peaking ahead of introduction.

 

But we don't see which brands caused the biggest losses and then there is the stock they mention that is sat in a warehouse that didn't sell - what was that, is it linked to the Corgi writedown.

 

They certainly didn't expect the loss to be as big as it was

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9 hours ago, adb968008 said:

I just had chance to read this report, which has a more “to the point” approach to previous years.

 

One aspect I noticed was the introduction of co2 emissions to the report (though it lacks the emissions of their suppliers, logistics, web provider etc) which many industries now mandate to their suppliers to provide and avoids hiding devils in someone elses details.

 

 

That sort of stuff - headed I think possibly a bit differently and not as detailed  was included in last year's Financial Report.

 

I get a clear feeling from the report )(here is a stated figure which makes it rather obvious) that the ciurent aim is to boost sales revenure) and look at pricing (by implication of existing stock?).  This is where I have already voiced concern regarding the retail trade and I agree with the points in this vein made abioe by 'Widnes Model Centre'.  There seem very likely to be yet again sales of surplus stock to retailers - as happened last year - but hopefully we will not go back to Hornby's direct sales undercutting the retail trade,  In fact the latter would be a complete reversal of the 'confidence building'. (among retailers) approach institur ted by LCD when he arrived at Hornby and the Report does mention not impacting 'brand equity'.

 

Coming back to 'adb968008's comments I hark back to my own earlier comments  about the 'capsule range' where Hornby's seeming failure ti understand exactly what Railroad is, or should be, has clouded their own marketing.  Are they now going to add 'capsule range' (aka design clever) to Railroad, main range, hi-fi items in the main range, and the Hornby Dublo branded models, as well as TT120 and spend more time competing with themselves rather than the real competition/.  I can see the advantages of a stepped chain of  ranges which move upmarket with each offering more than the next step down but just how many steps will they have and will Railroad remain the messy mélange it currently is?  Much more clarity needed I think and that might emerge in September.

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I'm very much with 'adb698008's latest post.  Interestingly in j his comments in the Report Raeburn refers to (purchase of) 'slower moving items' in the build up of stock for Q3.

 

As I said a while back with pre-ordered loco etc models well overdue and continually put back plus insufficent supplies to meet initial demand of TT120 why did 'somebody' buy in 'slower moving items'?  And run up bigger debts that cost ever more to service, plus building up the money  eating inventory by 30%?  Anyway it's done and the result is there in the numbers.

 

BTW I bought some Hornby items last year - almost all them (ecxceot a Dublo Dinky) were releases from earlier years sold off to retailers in inventory clear-outs,  The retailers know what moves slowlly so why didn't Hornby look at their trade sales information before ordering in stock for Q3?

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To emphasise one point in above is the net assets…

 

Continued Spiral Decreasing £7mn a year, from £36m suggest its only 5 years to zero.  I doubt it be allowed to even get that far before a protection rug is pulled.

 

So Thats not enough time for even a 5 year turn around plan.

 

The next 2 years the UK isnt going to be getting better in its economic outlook.

Last year they had exceptional events for Oxford. This year its Corgi.

Next year interest payments could play a large part.

So exceptionals may be unique, but may continue occuring.
 

They dont have much time to play with imo.

 

if theres a new range of cheap (lets say what it is) models coming out, I hope they have identified who will be the buyer…

I’m not in the mood for £19.99 ex Lima class 47’s. If they were revised main range class 50’s at £100, then it may turn heads. 

if they have gone all out for new “never been done before” toolings in railroad, I may be extremely pleasantly surprised and think thats what the market may react to (but I doubt the chinese factories will be happy and got no sense in the report that this was the case).

 

Whatever the rabbit in the hat in September, it better be a good one, as my reckoning theres not many rabbits left in the hat.

 

 

Edited by adb968008
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Someone has a bit of faith - shares trading at 19.50 currently so there are a few bulls in the market for what they see as a cheap buy.

But it didn't last - what I presume is the bid price is now done to 18p.  

 

That effectively means that the stock market this afternoon is valuing, by share price, the company at £16,8 million less than it valued it, by a share price, at the beginning of this year.

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Does anyone else get the feeling with Hornby that yes, it's a business, but a lot of the operations & motives behind their business decisions are slightly amateurish?

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5 minutes ago, Weeny Works said:

Does anyone else get the feeling with Hornby that yes, it's a business, but a lot of the operations & motives behind their business decisions are slightly amateurish?

I can see that viewpoint, and in some ways it's a good thing IMHO, I don't want to feel like I'm dealing with Amazon or GEC.

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1 hour ago, Weeny Works said:

Does anyone else get the feeling with Hornby that yes, it's a business, but a lot of the operations & motives behind their business decisions are slightly amateurish?

No I think thats maybe a bit unfair.

 

my personal feeling is at the right places in the management structure there is a lack of specific market awareness to the hobby.

You can be a professional in any job position, but applying generic skills to a highly bespoke market may not be as successful as potential.

 

I doubt its easy to employ those people either… take the new sales director role identified…

You cant just hire a sales director with 20 years experience selling Uk model railways.. theres not many of them and if you found them, that skillset has a price.  
The next step is a sales director 
with 20 years experience… but if that was in oil and gas.. that may not be an easy transition, unless they had a hobby interest.

If they didnt have a hobby interest then your down to hiring someone purely on sales expertise and merits alone and relying on their ability to adjust.

 

However another mitigation to that is breaking into business units, and letting the experts in their areas expand their roles and give them more creativity… then at a senior level manage and guide expectations.

(This is what I think they need to do btw.. stop being an oil tanker, and become a fleet of fishing boats).

 

one thing I think they need to be careful of is over reliance on technology and analytics… they just said this business is about “Building Happiness”.. not many CRM tools make people happy. Its a personal hobby and a personal business, the approach needs both imo.

 

Just an example.

 

 

 


 

 

 

 

 

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29 minutes ago, stewartingram said:

Was there any mention of Oxford at all?

Nothing beyond acknowledgements of ownership.

 

Corgi took a hit however, in writing down goodwill.

Infer what you can from that…

 

Quote

The four largest revenue contributors, and best known, of these brands are AIRFIX, CORGI, Hornby and SCALEXTRIC. 


plus,..

 

Quote

This capsule of entry level product is likely to include re-engineered versions of products from the Airfix, Scalextric and Hornby ranges.
 

 

 

so thats where the focus is.

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2 hours ago, adb968008 said:

I’m not in the mood for £19.99 ex Lima class 47’s.

 

And the interweb would think them too expensive anyway. 😉

 

1 hour ago, adb968008 said:

I doubt its easy to employ those people either… take the new sales director role identified…

You cant just hire a sales director with 20 years experience selling Uk model railways..

 

No problem. One post on this forum, and they will be inundated with "perfect" applicants...

 

Or, as you say, they can look for someone who can do the job. It really isn't going to be an easy post to fill with the right person.

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Imagine you have a million pounds to invest. You have two choices: buy Hornby shares or flush the money down the toilet. Doesn't matter which you choose as the result will be the same.

Hornby has lost its way. The market for trains and diecast has declined over the years. There are two buyers for trains: the train set market and the "serious" enthusiast. The latter is increasingly catered for by AS/Dapol/Revolution/Rapido et al. As for the trainset, is auntie going buy a £254 Duchess for little Johnny's birthday? Only if she is a rich auntie.

 

The BoE has just increased the bank rate again causing more pressure on people's finances. Footfall in the high streets is falling after the pandemic and people are buying online. And Hornby wants to open shops - really?

 

TT:120 was going to attract new buyers from outside the hobby as it was better for today's smaller houses. Isn't that what Tri-ang said when they introduced TT all those years ago? And what happened to TT? TT:120 was going to be promoted through newspaper adverts etc. Have there been any such adverts?  From this forum it seems TT:120 is appealing to existing enthusiasts and if Hornby can't not get enough product from the factories then sales will not grow. As it is Hornby has difficulty in getting its promised  new OO models delivered and OO is its core business.

 

It makes me wonder just why that investment company bought into Hornby. They have invested millions with little, if any, return. What were they hoping for?

 

 

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8 minutes ago, Farang said:

The market for trains and diecast has declined over the years.

 

Of course, you have some hard data to back this up.

 

8 minutes ago, Farang said:

And Hornby wants to open shops - really?

 

They haven't explicitly said this. My guess would be more concessions, but it's no more than a guess. Mind you, there may be some panicky landlords out there willing to do deals.

 

9 minutes ago, Farang said:

TT:120 was going to be promoted through newspaper adverts etc. Have there been any such adverts? 

 

Since they seem to have had enough trouble supplying those who ordered TT:120 without adverts, these would surely have made the situation worse, and lead to more disappointment wouldn't they?

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3 hours ago, adb968008 said:

 

 

However another mitigation to that is breaking into business units, and letting the experts in their areas expand their roles and give them more creativity… then at a senior level manage and guide expectations.

(This is what I think they need to do btw.. stop being an oil tanker, and become a fleet of fishing boats).

 

 

 

Don't overlook the emphasis on 'brand foundationals' in the report.  Only for the major brands at present but effectively it looks to me like a step tpwards the empowerment of brand managers.   That looks as if it will shift the working,, development, investment, and profitability, responsibilities to a more devolved level within the company but to a level where the brand knowledge is greatest (or should be greatest).  

 

If you are going to have brand managers you might just as well let them manage thir brand. But might that also introduce 'competition' for resources and incvestment and who will decide if the investment goes on tooling up a 1/24r th scale Lancaster or a Raven pacifc?   And is competition for investment alreadyt happening within Hornby with money going to the 'capsule range' nt going on  that Lancaster or the NER Pacific?   We might well see the answer to that in September with confirmation around the New Year?

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3 hours ago, adb968008 said:

.... I’m not in the mood for £19.99 ex Lima class 47’s. ....

 

Just goes to show the great range of opinions and budget; I'd be very happy with ex Lima 47s at twenty quid, 20s and 31s too.

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