Hornby 2023 annual results

[Rich_F]

37 minutes ago, Phil Parker said:

 

Plenty of Airfix kits from the 1960s have been re-released. It's called the "Vintage Classics Range" - and I'm looking forward to a Bond Bug. 

 

Indeed. But when competitors like Tamiya, Revell & Academy do exceptional tooling with more niche subjects for similar prices it starts to raise the question if the pain is worth the gain. 

[Phil Parker]

1 hour ago, Weeny Works said:

 

Indeed. But when competitors like Tamiya, Revell & Academy do exceptional tooling with more niche subjects for similar prices it starts to raise the question if the pain is worth the gain. 

 

A lot depends on the state of the mould. If it doesn't need much work, the only effort is to put it into the machine and press the button. The hardest part is finding moulds that didn't get melted down by a previous management.

 

There's also a huge amount of nostalgia around these early Airfix kits. People will forgive the lack of detail, and occasional iffy part fit, to relive their youth.

 

And no-one else makes a Bond Bug.

[TT-Pete]

1 hour ago, Phil Parker said:

A lot depends on the state of the mould.

 

Agreed 100%. I am currently building the old Airfix Jaguar kit, it needs a large amount of filing, sanding and fettling to remove flash, clear the mould lines up and get parts to fit together properly, I would not recommend it for a novice...

 

 

[1andrew1]

7 hours ago, Weeny Works said:

 

Indeed. But when competitors like Tamiya, Revell & Academy do exceptional tooling with more niche subjects for similar prices it starts to raise the question if the pain is worth the gain. 

Airfix does exceptional new tooling too. Companies like Revell sell old moulds acquired from the likes of Frog but in new boxes alongside new tooling in new boxes. This confuses their proposition. Airfix's Vintage Classics approach is a good one.

[BachelorBoy]

7 hours ago, 1andrew1 said:

Companies like Revell sell old moulds acquired from the likes of Frog 

 

Wasn't Frog a Triang company originally?

 

[PMP]

18 hours ago, Weeny Works said:

 

Indeed. But when competitors like Tamiya, Revell & Academy do exceptional tooling with more niche subjects for similar prices it starts to raise the question if the pain is worth the gain. 

Airfix have been particularly clever with the classics range. They engage via social media and at events like air shows with their customers. They suggest items from these back catalog that they have the tools for and presumably that have been checked as production viable with little work. The feedback they get tells them which release is likely to do well for them, because the customer is in effect saying you make it, I’ll buy it. The instructions are brought up to todays quality and decals are new and excellent quality. So a really simple way to use old tools as a ‘heritage’ release to a customer base that wants them.

 

This is an example of Airfix contemporary releases in 1/72. You’ll note there’s no filler, and the fit is as good or better than their competitors.

 

Edited June 24, 2023 by PMP
Spelling

[spamcan61]

11 hours ago, 1andrew1 said:

Airfix does exceptional new tooling too. Companies like Revell sell old moulds acquired from the likes of Frog but in new boxes alongside new tooling in new boxes. This confuses their proposition. Airfix's Vintage Classics approach is a good one.

I think the point was the 'Classics' are priced at a similar level to much more modern tooling, but require a lot more work to make a decent model. 

[andyman7]

18 hours ago, Weeny Works said:

 

Indeed. But when competitors like Tamiya, Revell & Academy do exceptional tooling with more niche subjects for similar prices it starts to raise the question if the pain is worth the gain. 

In the Humbrol/Heller 'wilderness' years AIrfix by and large subsisted on vintage tooling but the post 2006 Hornby era has seen a huge amount of excellent ew tooling brought into use that is very competitive with those brands.

 

16 hours ago, Phil Parker said:

 

A lot depends on the state of the mould. If it doesn't need much work, the only effort is to put it into the machine and press the button. The hardest part is finding moulds that didn't get melted down by a previous management.

 

There's also a huge amount of nostalgia around these early Airfix kits. People will forgive the lack of detail, and occasional iffy part fit, to relive their youth.

 

And no-one else makes a Bond Bug.

 

11 hours ago, 1andrew1 said:

Airfix does exceptional new tooling too. Companies like Revell sell old moulds acquired from the likes of Frog but in new boxes alongside new tooling in new boxes. This confuses their proposition. Airfix's Vintage Classics approach is a good one.

Agree - and unlike the rather confused approach to Railroad, the Vintage Classics range allows Airfix to benefit from its enormous heritage tool archive without diluting the efforts to upgrade 'full fat' models, and lets us get our hands on some very esoteric and hard-to-find subjects. The Bond Bug is an excellent example.

[andyman7]

2 minutes ago, spamcan61 said:

I think the point was the 'Classics' are priced at a similar level to much more modern tooling, but require a lot more work to make a decent model. 

However, the marketing makes this clear - it is not positioned as a budget range. 

[PMP]

11 minutes ago, spamcan61 said:

I think the point was the 'Classics' are priced at a similar level to much more modern tooling, but require a lot more work to make a decent model. 

And at that price point they are extremely popular, they do not hang about on the shelves. Where else will you get a bond bug, 1/72 DH Beaver, Heron, Beagle Basset, P80? They fit in the same relative price point in the range they always had. A series one kit rerelease falls in the lowest contemporary price, series two, series three drop into their respective price bracket. Simples, and the customers who buy them don’t whinge, they enjoy the challenge of making ‘something’ out of fresh plastic from old tools.

Edited June 24, 2023 by PMP

[Ravenser]

2 hours ago, PMP said:

And at that price point they are extremely popular, they do not hang about on the shelves. Where else will you get a bond bug, 1/72 DH Beaver, Heron, Beagle Basset, P80? They fit in the same relative price point in the range they always had. A series one kit rerelease falls in the lowest contemporary price, series two, series three drop into their respective price bracket. Simples, and the customers who buy them don’t whinge, they enjoy the challenge of making ‘something’ out of fresh plastic from old tools.

 

It is also worth pointing out that the fit even of these vintage classics from Airfix  is generally rather better than that of model railway kits

[PeterStiles]

2 hours ago, spamcan61 said:

but require a lot more work to make a decent model. 

 

The joy in buying an airfix kit is in the 'building' it, yes?

 

So if the kit requires more effort and time to build it's actually *better* value for money!

 

 

Back when I was a lad(*), I used to balance out how much a model cost compared to how long that same amount of money would last buying drinks in the pub; especially if the model has some further use in a railway or gaming. So a kit that takes 4 hours to build is worth a Nights Out of beer, yes?

 

You have to add to that the joy of making a kit you last put together in the '70s but with.. a few... years extra experience and skill.(**)

 

(*) Of a callow 20 years

(**) We won't mention the eyesight and fatter fingers, those don't count!

 

[MrTea]

On 23/06/2023 at 11:03, Weeny Works said:

Does anyone else get the feeling with Hornby that yes, it's a business, but a lot of the operations & motives behind their business decisions are slightly amateurish?

It certainly seems strange from the outside. But then again we’re not being paid to run the place are we? 

[Pint of Adnams]

On 23/06/2023 at 10:15, adb968008 said:

When I looked over the website, I see more coaches than I would ever want or need…. APT, Mk4’s, mk3’s, Generics, Azuma its all there…

I recall bemoaning that in the run up to christmas nothing interesting was released.

Much of what was in stock, had been in stock for months.

 

I bought pretty much nothing Hornby up-to christmas (and i’m all all rounder hobbyist, and I spend more than I should, not any set niche), yet i felt dissapointed that nothing was coming.

The report suggests they stocked up and the customers didnt come.

 

so to me at least, there is a disconnect there between consumer and company.

But curiously and despite the number of locomotives produced for the early British Railways to Rail Blue era, nothing for them to pull. If you are a collector of locos fine, if you want to model trains then not much use.

[MrTea]

Are there any hints in the report at which way Hornby is looking to go with regards to its product offerings? E.g. continue high(ish) fidelity, increase RailRoad etc.

 

From an enthusiast’s point of view we have a lot more choice (both of models and of brands, and indeed ways of buying) than we did in the 1980s and 1990s when I first got into model railways. 
 

I find the marketing side of the Hornby conundrum fascinating and a real challenge for whoever takes it on. I can see that they’ve invested in digital via their partner agency and I’d be intrigued as to what direction that might take in the future? With the right kind of research and data modelling you can get some incredible insights into your customers and what motivates them. 

[PMP]

46 minutes ago, Ravenser said:

 

It is also worth pointing out that the fit even of these vintage classics from Airfix  is generally rather better than that of model railway kits

It’s worth pointing out that’s not anything like factually correct, even as a generalisation.

Here’s two classic kits. A Parkside LMS brake van vs a classic Airfix HS125. I was shocked how poor the HS125 detail and fit is, on opening the box fond memories rapidly grounded! The example here is nowhere near ready for paint, and took many many hours to get to this state. Frustratingly enjoyable. 
The LMS brake van by contrast far quicker and easier if more complex, including getting the chassis square. Similar injection molded products like early Cambrian, Kirk, Ratio and Coopercraft have been easier to get a clean build from than this Vintage Classic HS125. 

 

 

[Neil]

On 23/06/2023 at 11:03, Weeny Works said:

Does anyone else get the feeling with Hornby that yes, it's a business, but a lot of the operations & motives behind their business decisions are slightly amateurish?

 

56 minutes ago, MrTea said:

It certainly seems strange from the outside. But then again we’re not being paid to run the place are we? 

 

I wonder if that seeps through into other areas of their business. I was surprised when watching a couple of episodes of Hornby - A Model World how shabby the premises looked with bits and pieces dumped around the place and tacky tarpaulin backdrops/screens. Not what you would expect from a well known market leader.

[The Stationmaster]

9 minutes ago, MrTea said:

Are there any hints in the report at which way Hornby is looking to go with regards to its product offerings? E.g. continue high(ish) fidelity, increase RailRoad etc.

 

From an enthusiast’s point of view we have a lot more choice (both of models and of brands, and indeed ways of buying) than we did in the 1980s and 1990s when I first got into model railways. 
 

I find the marketing side of the Hornby conundrum fascinating and a real challenge for whoever takes it on. I can see that they’ve invested in digital via their partner agency and I’d be intrigued as to what direction that might take in the future? With the right kind of research and data modelling you can get some incredible insights into your customers and what motivates them. 

The Report seems pretty clear that development of the 'caosule range'. (seemingly a new version of design clever) is underway and a firm suggestion that models will be available to see at the AGM.   So presumably they will also appear in the Annual Report when it is published in September.  BTW this initiarive covers railways, Scalextric, and Airfix

 

Hints that TT120 was not sufficiently stocked for the time of release and by implication releases will continue.  Big emphasis on pricing and value for money etc which might be read to indicate that the hi-fi side is not currently high in the new CEO's programme.  As he he has committed himself to a sales revenue increase plus a very obvious change of emphasis to 'sales' rather than 'marketing' I think that what we are going to see this year is a very strong effort to sell and any development resources are likely to be committed more to that than most other things.  But that is my personal reading both directly and between the lines of the various words. In the Financial Annual Report.  We shall no doubt get a much clearer picture when teh Annual Report appears in September

 

Thus far the stock market do not seem to be very impressed.

[MrTea]

36 minutes ago, The Stationmaster said:

The Report seems pretty clear that development of the 'caosule range'. (seemingly a new version of design clever) is underway and a firm suggestion that models will be available to see at the AGM.   So presumably they will also appear in the Annual Report when it is published in September.  BTW this initiarive covers railways, Scalextric, and Airfix

Thanks Mike. I think that makes sense. It’s not necessarily what segments of this forum would wish for but it’s probably not a bad strategy. And I think we’d all acknowledge that one of the Hornby businesses strengths is its brands and their resonance with the target market. 
 

Affordability is surely only going to become more of a factor given the way that the UK economy seems to be heading?

[spamcan61]

1 hour ago, PeterStiles said:

 

The joy in buying an airfix kit is in the 'building' it, yes?

 

So if the kit requires more effort and time to build it's actually *better* value for money!

 

Putting extra work in to add fine detail or produce a different build variant then fine yes, agree 100% there.

 

Putting extra work in to make up for the sink marks and general poor state of the kit due to use of knackered old tooling, no thanks.

[CUCKOO LINE]

About half the  lost was Corgi goodwill impairment (2.9 million). Any ideas what this is  about ?

Edited June 24, 2023 by CUCKOO LINE
Typo

[spamcan61]

6 minutes ago, CUCKOO LINE said:

About half the  lost was Corgi goodwill impairment (2.9 million). Any ideas what this is  about ?

I think it could roughly be interpreted as meaning Hornby finally admitting Corgi wasn't worth what they paid for it.

Edited June 24, 2023 by spamcan61

[AY Mod]

5 minutes ago, spamcan61 said:

I think it could roughly be interpreted as meaning Hornby finally admitting Corgi wasn't worth what they paid for it.

 

Possibly making it free of encumbrance? ;)

[spamcan61]

1 hour ago, Neil said:

 

 

I wonder if that seeps through into other areas of their business. I was surprised when watching a couple of episodes of Hornby - A Model World how shabby the premises looked with bits and pieces dumped around the place and tacky tarpaulin backdrops/screens. Not what you would expect from a well known market leader.

I'd say at the end of the day toy trains are a very mature market, and nobody is making huge piles of cash from them. We're not going to see Google/Apple style ivory palaces inhabited by toy train manufacturers.

Edited June 24, 2023 by spamcan61

[Ravenser]

On 22/06/2023 at 17:23, The Stationmaster said:

Some of the report reads in a rather frightening manner and uncovers some fascinating contradictions.  There is a clear statement that they ordered in extra stock, and this incurred extra debt against borrowing,in anticipation of 3rd quarter sales.     This hadsleft them with a 30% jump in the value of inventory.

 

But at the same time they say they were unable to meet initial demand for TT120. sets.  So with various 00 locos forever slipping back in production schedules what on earth was the huge pile of stock they purchased in anticipation of 3rd quarter sales growth?  And does it mean that they didn't buy in stuff for which they had advance orders or would have got revenue in at the time  of the TT120 announcement?   The numbers are all too real but what went wrong?  And what is all this recently ordered stuff  that is sitting in this inventory pile?

 

 

 

 

It may be worth trying to unpick this, and work out exactly what the stuff in question is - bearing in mind that OO model railways are only one element in the mix, and there is a lot of other stuff too.

 

Most Hornby commentary seems to treat everything other than OO rolling stock as a minor add-on. It's entirely possible that "everything else" is actually more than 50% of the Group's turnover

 

A whisker under 72% of turnover was in the UK. It's difficult to see very much of the 28% that was outside the UK being OO. The pattern of turnover, with big showings in Spain, Italy, and other Continental (which I read as France, Germany Eastern Europe) and the whole of USA being less than Spain+Italy , points to Hornby International in HO and N being the big revenue driver here, along with Airfix. There is very little US outline in the Hornby International range, and its difficult to see the US turnover as anything other than mainly Airfix, perhaps with some Scalextric too.

 

Hornby International seems to be doing okay, and washing its face. Its main markets are in profit. There may be a hint that Arnold in N and TT is doing nicely - France , Germany and Eastern Europe are the most profitable region.

On the other hand the USA has the worst loss margin, and I struggle to see Hornby's US turnover as anything other than mainly Airfix

 

Its obvious from Hornby : A Model World that Airfix  is the number 2 brand at Margate . The rest barely seem to feature. An appreciable part of that 72% UK turnover must reflect Airfix , and there will also be slivers of Scalextric, diecast and Humbrol in there. To say that Airfix and the rest are not implicated in any stock build-up and it MUST be nearly all OO trains seems too bold. On the other hand Airfix and possibly Humbrol are the only other brands big enough to have a significant impact on overall inventory.

 

Just how big is diecast these days? To my eye Corgi is largely invisible and Oxford Diecast functions largely as support for model railways in OO, N and now TT120. Over at Bachmann EFE seems to be being repurposed as a model railway brand. The days of swarms of limited edition diecast in shops like Modelzone seem to be largely gone. The fact that Hornby have increasingly been using diecast in model locomotives hints that diecast capacity may be readily available/ under-utilised. Writing off the Corgi goodwill may reflect a reality that diecast is a burst balloon nowadays

 

So what might these slow moving stocks that were ordered be?

 

- Hornby have invested in a complete range of 12mm gauge track. That will  support Arnold TT as well as TT:120. It is essential they have track readily available for customers to expand their initial trainset. But this will mean ordering a big block of new track and holding it in the warehouse. This fits the "buying in slower moving stock" comment very well . Traditionally the retail trade acted as the warehouse holding this steady selling/slow-moving stock. Direct selling means bringing a lot of stock-holding in house

- Hornby are now offering TT120 coaches as individual items . These are also follow-on purchases , again the batch production system means ordering a large block of them and holding them in the warehouse for gradual run-off. There are hints elsewhere that coaches are "steady but slower" sellers. Once again by selling direct Hornby have closed off the possibility of "selling through" quickly

 

- The current Hornby "last chance to buy" - which I take to be the clearance section is here  Hornby clearance

Coaches feature, as do bits of Skaledale There are suggestions that Hornby over order brake coaches , which may have some validity looking at the listings. An LNER livery W1 looks unsxurprising as a clearance item , and eLink is being disposed of. Hornby have invested a lot in tooling up new ranges of coaches in the last 15 years. Expect them to cut that back a lot - one or two new coaches a year, maximum. They can sit on their existing tool bank.

 

- HM7000 hint that holding stocks of a wide variety of sound chips was something of a nightmare. Hornby will presumably have ordered a big batch of HM7000 blank decoders , and other gear , to launch the system . Again this may well be "slower-selling" - they won't want it to sell through in 3-4 weeks. And they may have residual stocks of previous DCC initiatives , like eLink , hanging around

 

We are very familiar with how Hornby disposes of surplus OO RTR. But what about Airfix? They don't seem to have a clearance section . What they do offer is "Bundles" , and notably including "Mystery Bundles" which I take it are the main way of off-loading kits that are lingering: Airfix bundles

 

(I hope these links work - there are long strings of junk on the end. But the relevant sections are easily found in the online shop)

 

what a Humbrol 3D printer is doing in here I'm not quite sure. A venture that didn't go far, I think

 

How do Hornby off-load slow-selling plastic kits? If they have few options for doing so, then there is a risk of a slow build-up of remnants of stock.

 

Again - it's been suggested in the past that direct sales via the website are a significantly lower share of Hornby OO than they are for other Group brands. Airfix, as the number 2 brand , would presumably be a big part of the website sales, and if they are a much more direct-sales brand, then the issues of stock-holding and slow-moving items that go with direct selling would  be  more prominent with Airfix.

 

Hornby International may have their own stock-holding issues - Brexit has presumably required the creation of a satellite stockholding operation on the Continent. That has a cost, too. 

 

And finally I remember a suggestion Hornby had taken on financing so they could take ownership at an earlier stage of the supply pipeline and exert more control (Ex works rather than FOB terms seem to be implied?)

 

None of this is down to the products being bad /unsaleable. But it all adds to inventory, and inventory has a cost