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Idle Speculation and the Hornby Announcement


Caledonian

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Only 18 days to Christmas then, guess I aught to go and do my shopping.........

 

I see that there is going to be a 'Christmas surprise' in the next issue of DEMU's update thats due in the next couple of weeks. Cant help but speculate that it will be an early announcement of the D&E range......

 

It could simply be the Class 70 of course. I wouldn't bet on any society publication hitting its copy date exactly so we may well get the official Hornby announcement before we see Update

 

 

 

 

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I see that there is going to be a 'Christmas surprise' in the next issue of DEMU's update thats due in the next couple of weeks. Cant help but speculate that it will be an early announcement of the D&E range......

 

So will that be before or after it's in REx ;)

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I wonder if we can narrow it down to two schools of thought at work here?

 

Modellers school, which cries out for locos that are useful.

Enthusiast school, which wants everything that looks attractive and appeals to them.

 

I think we might need to add 'Collectors School'but then like as not they'd probably buy anything and everything (and hope they get the one with unpainted wheels :lol: ).

 

I think Hornby might expand along the GWR theme and I seriously wonder, still, if they might go for a 54/64/74XX basic loco and ring the wheel size etc

changes to suit in order to get a lot of 'new model' mileage out of it. GWR coaches seem a strong likelihood with the main question being 'what will they be?'

 

But I have heard it said that Hornby's past GW efforts have not been good sellers (hardly surprising for some of them but even the 'Grange' has allegedly not sold very strongly) so they could turn their sights elsewhere.

 

I suspect the dark horse might be an S&D 2-8-0 which seems to get lots of wish listing but otherwise it is as likely to be something LNER and the head rather than the heart suggests a revamped B17 as it's 'an express engine'.

 

Whatever it is I think their main aim is going to have to be income (and hopefully profit) in increasingly difficult market conditions and that - as much as anything else - will undoubtedly have figured high in making their choice.

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The Stationmaster....but otherwise it is as likely to be something LNER and the head rather than the heart suggests a revamped B17 as it's 'an express engine'.

I agree. It is also green and I can see lots of marketting advantages for a 'Footballer'.

 

 

 

 

I once bought my eldest son a 'Warship' diesel, not because he was interested in railways, which he totally isn't, but because it carried the name of his ship. Introduction of a B17 would cost me a packet with 'Manchester United' and 'Liverpool'. Then I'd have to buy one for meself.smile.gif

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I agree. It is also green and I can see lots of marketting advantages for a 'Footballer'.

 

 

 

 

I once bought my eldest son a 'Warship' diesel, not because he was interested in railways, which he totally isn't, but because it carried the name of his ship. Introduction of a B17 would cost me a packet with 'Manchester United' and 'Liverpool'. Then I'd have to buy one for meself.smile.gif

 

And that could be one very potent sales factor working for a B17. In this day and age they'd certainly do a Sandringham as well - just look at the variations they've done on the Arthurs and T9 - and that does then get them part way towards a new B12

 

But this is implying we should be seeing some GC Section layouts: ROD, B17, D11......

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The possibility that keeps occuring to me is - will Hornby forgoe the high end, detail rich , oooh and ahhh releases and make a larger contribution to their railroad range.

 

Im basing that thought upon the prevailling economics, relatively low cost of implementation, potential to grow the hobby and attract customer base and claim an even greater market share in an area that the other manufacturers dont seem to think there is any need to cater for ?

 

Will they allow the Dapol, Bachmann and Heljan players to spend oodles of cash developing models which already some voices on this forum and others are saying may have passed the price at which their wallet or wife cries enough!! and clean up on sales of more conservatively priced products to cultivate future hobbyists and consolidate their position whilst times are hard ?

 

or am I just being a misery guts ?

 

 

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The possibility that keeps occuring to me is - will Hornby forgoe the high end, detail rich , oooh and ahhh releases and make a larger contribution to their railroad range.

 

Im basing that thought upon the prevailling economics, relatively low cost of implementation, potential to grow the hobby and attract customer base and claim an even greater market share in an area that the other manufacturers dont seem to think there is any need to cater for ?

 

Will they allow the Dapol, Bachmann and Heljan players to spend oodles of cash developing models which already some voices on this forum and others are saying may have passed the price at which their wallet or wife cries enough!! and clean up on sales of more conservatively priced products to cultivate future hobbyists and consolidate their position whilst times are hard ?

 

or am I just being a misery guts ?

 

 

I think it can work two ways - obvious budget advantage of an entry level lower priced range in tight market conditions so you sell volume and hopefully broaden you market. Equally tho' stick a few extra bits of detail on and your into what marketeers call 'added value' - which is another way of saying it costs you 2% more to make but you can up the retail price by 12% thus increasing your profit margin.

 

The big question - as you have said - is can the market bear it? Well thus far it is, according to one post on here since Friday a tad over 200 people have lashed out at least ??145 for a pretty 4-4-0 which in many cases has no place on their layout. Elsewhere someone has said Hornby are fresh out of 'Clans' although no doubt plenty of retailers still have some. My local model shop only does a limited amount of model railways but he sells everything at RRP - and his locos and coaches sell (but not to me:blink:) . So at present I think the money is still there for quality stuff, but it might be pertinent to ask the same question in a year's time when prices will no doubt be rising even higher and the British economy will have tightened considerably. Thank goodness in many respects that Hornby now owns a good selection of international brands.

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Hornby has identified and addressed the market for less-detailed lower-priced models. The Railroad 9F, for instance, suits a good many people and no doubt more 'dumbed down' Schools and Bullied Pacifics will follow. But I'm sure Hornby doesnt need reminding where it was only a short while ago and how it pulled itself off the toy floor to compete with Bachmann's scale models.

 

If Hornby turns its back on the high end market even for only a short time during the economic downturn, it risks a great deal. I don't think this will happen.

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I think it can work two ways - obvious budget advantage of an entry level lower priced range in tight market conditions so you sell volume and hopefully broaden you market. Equally tho' stick a few extra bits of detail on and your into what marketeers call 'added value' - which is another way of saying it costs you 2% more to make but you can up the retail price by 12% thus increasing your profit margin.

 

The big question - as you have said - is can the market bear it? Well thus far it is, according to one post on here since Friday a tad over 200 people have lashed out at least ??145 for a pretty 4-4-0 which in many cases has no place on their layout. Elsewhere someone has said Hornby are fresh out of 'Clans' although no doubt plenty of retailers still have some. My local model shop only does a limited amount of model railways but he sells everything at RRP - and his locos and coaches sell (but not to me:blink:) . So at present I think the money is still there for quality stuff, but it might be pertinent to ask the same question in a year's time when prices will no doubt be rising even higher and the British economy will have tightened considerably. Thank goodness in many respects that Hornby now owns a good selection of international brands.

 

Good question regarding the cost factor - I suspect that Hornby will tighten the reigns. Perhaps more coaching stock. The Gresley's aren't well liked what about the possibility of them doing Thompson stock. It would open the doors to producing the Elizabethan. Well i can but dream! I suspect it could be the yesr of the coah be it GWR or LNER. A B17 may be on the cards - next year ? possibly but we may see less in the catalogues not more. Livery variations and new name numbers...

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Given Hornby's recent spate of Southern loco releases, MNs, WCs, BBs, Schools and the like, I would have thought that Bulleid coaches up to the standard of the Maunsells would be a sensible way to go. I for one would have to have the odd dozen or two.

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Given Hornby's recent spate of Southern loco releases, MNs, WCs, BBs, Schools and the like, I would have thought that Bulleid coaches up to the standard of the Maunsells would be a sensible way to go. I for one would have to have the odd dozen or two.

Interesting, and gets my vote, especially as Bachmann keep promising to re-release their Bulleids and then failing to deliver.

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Given Hornby's recent spate of Southern loco releases, MNs, WCs, BBs, Schools and the like, I would have thought that Bulleid coaches up to the standard of the Maunsells would be a sensible way to go. I for one would have to have the odd dozen or two.

 

As I said, Hornby seems to be developing a taste for unusual coaches, so I wouldn't be in the least bit surprised if at some point they produced an as-built Bulleid tavern car.

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Yes,I can understand GE types wanting something to complement their "Brits". Hornby could easily satisfy that need with a green,named,passenger loco....and for infinitesmal development costs. Gentlemen,I give none other than... 72009 Clan Stewart!.

 

I do like the idea of an updated Compound. As a type,it has the merit of straddling the MR,LMS and BR periods.

 

DR

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I see that there is going to be a 'Christmas surprise' in the next issue of DEMU's update thats due in the next couple of weeks. Cant help but speculate that it will be an early announcement of the D&E range......

 

Nothing that earth shattering I'm afraid. About 2010 plans, I know nothing ....

 

Jeff.

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Any one else seen the calendar?

Right, managed to go back to look at the calendar, made notes this time...

 

January - Winchester (Schools) delayed from this year

February - Green Goddess Fire Engine

March - 31 268

April - The Chinese Takeaway

May - M7 in malachite green

June - 61XX

July - Gresley Teak Buffet car

August - The Queen's Saloon

September - New Century Bar Car

October - 12 wheel pullman car Neptune

November - Private Owner 4 plank wagon - welsh origin

December - Railfreight brake van

 

Does this make us any the wiser?

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