East Coast Main Line to Virgin Trains East Coast

[Chris116]

C'mon. He was a student. Forward planning isn't part of the psyche.

 

Keith

I have just checked for a ticket in two days time. Price is £44 which with a student railcard goes down to £29. I think our student is a fool and the journalist who picked up the story an even bigger fool. Edited July 1, 2017 by Chris116

[melmerby]

I have just checked for a ticket in two days time. Price is £44 which with a student railcard goes down to £29. I think our student is a fool and the journalist who picked up the story an even bigger fool.

It was in the Daily Wail.

Where real news is hard to find!

 

Keith

[woodenhead]

WCML and ECML services are designed to do two things, get people to London and get them back out.

 

If travel to London is affected by changes in business or tourist spending patterns then both services will suffer financially.

 

Terrorism may have had some impact on London tourism but probably more from overseas visitors than U.K. residents having a weekend break or going to the West End.

 

However, the big changes have come about with businesses. High speed internet has revolutionised communications and businesses are acutely aware of the impact of a trip to the Smoke for a two hour or less meeting when a Skype/conference call or a simple phone call will deliver the same benefit with less disruption and cost. Businesses also are more canny with travel times, gone is the need to get the 6:30 train unless you are commuting, get a 9:30 or 10am off peak, return before 3pm or at 7pm and you've shaved a couple of hundred pounds off your bill. I don't travel even half as much as I did, my job hasn't changed but I just don't need to get trains to London so often and when I do I always look to travel off peak.

[Fat Controller]

I have just checked for a ticket in two days time. Price is £44 which with a student railcard goes down to £29. I think our student is a fool and the journalist who picked up the story an even bigger fool.

Not such a fool, as he's got his name on the 'Net, and can now get money from advertisers linking to it.

[woodenhead]

I have just checked for a ticket in two days time. Price is £44 which with a student railcard goes down to £29. I think our student is a fool and the journalist who picked up the story an even bigger fool.

He just wanted to get his face in the news, probably a blogger, everybody wants to be the next millionaire Martin Lewis

[frobisher]

He just wanted to get his face in the news, probably a blogger, everybody wants to be the next millionaire Martin Lewis

And if it's anything like the last time this kind of "story" got the oxygen of publicity, it has a budget airline lurking at the back of it all trying to disguise the fact they don't have decent direct flights point to point in the UK

[hmrspaul]

WCML and ECML services are designed to do two things, get people to London and get them back out.

 

If travel to London is affected by changes in business or tourist spending patterns then both services will suffer financially.

 

Terrorism may have had some impact on London tourism but probably more from overseas visitors than U.K. residents having a weekend break or going to the West End.

 

However, the big changes have come about with businesses. High speed internet has revolutionised communications and businesses are acutely aware of the impact of a trip to the Smoke for a two hour or less meeting when a Skype/conference call or a simple phone call will deliver the same benefit with less disruption and cost. Businesses also are more canny with travel times, gone is the need to get the 6:30 train unless you are commuting, get a 9:30 or 10am off peak, return before 3pm or at 7pm and you've shaved a couple of hundred pounds off your bill. I don't travel even half as much as I did, my job hasn't changed but I just don't need to get trains to London so often and when I do I always look to travel off peak.

 

And a lot more control on public services use of First class travel and more restricted budgets generally.

 

Mind, there are an impressive number of trains to KX from York, with regular departures starting in York which stop frequently, but can have very cheap fares. By the time they have given you a free light meal and a couple of drinks there can't be much profit left when an advanced, railcard purchased ticket is used.

 

Paul

Edited July 2, 2017 by hmrspaul

[Coryton]

And a lot more control on public services use of First class travel and more restricted budgets generally.

 

Yes but the clamp down on first class fares at the public expense came well before Virgin/Stagecoach would have been doing their sums for this franchise.

[The Border Reiver]

Today in the Sunday Times...

 

Train operators promised fresh taxpayer cash

Taxpayers may have to pump millions of pounds into ailing rail franchises under bold plans being considered by ministers.

Faced with dwindling interest from potential bidders for new train franchises — including the combined West Coast and HS2 franchise — the government is examining a controversial subsidy regime.

Under the plans, the government would pay train companies if their revenue significantly undershoots forecasts.

 

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/business/train-operators-promised-fresh-taxpayer-cash-z796fcncv

[The Stationmaster]

Today in the Sunday Times...

 

Train operators promised fresh taxpayer cash

 

Taxpayers may have to pump millions of pounds into ailing rail franchises under bold plans being considered by ministers.

 

Faced with dwindling interest from potential bidders for new train franchises — including the combined West Coast and HS2 franchise — the government is examining a controversial subsidy regime.

 

Under the plans, the government would pay train companies if their revenue significantly undershoots forecasts.

 

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/business/train-operators-promised-fresh-taxpayer-cash-z796fcncv

 

Hardly news is it when the present 'cap & collar' system applies to many (?most) franchises.  Why do people think there are actually companies prepared to bid for something which otherwise offers a pretty abysmal rate of return in many cases?r

[The Stationmaster]

Because that's what it's called.

 

But as I said in my previous post, I think the shine has worn off Virgin group somewhat in recent times and isn't the instant business pull it used to be.

At one time Richard Branson's publicity outings were top news, now they barely get a mention.

 

Keith

 

More than that I think it's a case of more people seeing through the razzamatazz of Virgin's rail involvement and getting to see the hard facts.  Having worked alongside them I've always found it difficult to understand exactly what people see in Virgin's 'wonderful commercial vision' applied to rail as from what I saw once you get beyond the surface gloss and the noise and shouting about it together with the brand they're not really any better than anyone else with a few allegedly commercial ideas although one of them was remarkably dedicated at making, how shall I put it, 'creative' use of his company charge card hence his rapid disappearance from one railway concern where Virgin were involved.

[Coryton]

More than that I think it's a case of more people seeing through the razzamatazz of Virgin's rail involvement and getting to see the hard facts.  Having worked alongside them I've always found it difficult to understand exactly what people see in Virgin's 'wonderful commercial vision' applied to rail as from what I saw once you get beyond the surface gloss and the noise and shouting about it together with the brand they're not really any better than anyone else with a few allegedly commercial ideas although one of them was remarkably dedicated at making, how shall I put it, 'creative' use of his company charge card hence his rapid disappearance from one railway concern where Virgin were involved.

 

What about the new Azuma trains on the east coast? The previous franchisees all made do with pre-privatisation designs, yet Virgin have single-handedly and remarkably quickly come up with brand new trains. They have clearly learnt their lesson from their first franchise when it took years before Pendolinos and Voyagers became available.

 

I did hear rumours that the trains were ordered before the franchise started but I've looked at the VTEC web site and it doesn't seem to be true.

 

(I'd better add since it's easy to be misunderstood, that the above is intended as sarcasm)

[Ken.W]

What about the new Azuma trains on the east coast? The previous franchisees all made do with pre-privatisation designs, yet Virgin have single-handedly and remarkably quickly come up with brand new trains. They have clearly learnt their lesson from their first franchise when it took years before Pendolinos and Voyagers became available.

 

I did hear rumours that the trains were ordered before the franchise started but I've looked at the VTEC web site and it doesn't seem to be true.

 

(I'd better add since it's easy to be misunderstood, that the above is intended as sarcasm)

Indeed, that's what they'd like you to believe, when of coarse they were actually part of the franchise specification for whoever took over.

 

As discussed elsewhere however, whether these things actually manage to run on the east coast remains to be seen.

Latest is, a number of HSTs are being retained as 1 in 3 out of KX have to be diesel as they're overpwered for the wires.

That's on top of they won't apparently keep HST timings on diesel sections, take too much power to go north of Newcastle on electric,

and doubtful they can even reach Inverness (and there's no word yet of the diesel on EC sets being uprated as on the GW sets)

[jjb1970]

Whatever faults the IEP may have, I'm pretty sure it'll work. Most new assets have commissioning and entry into service issues, during which time we get all sorts of doom laden scare stories and indulge in some rather enjoyable schadenfreude. Equipment tends to follow a bathtub curve, lots of problems in it's early phase, settling down to steady and reliable operation before the curve takes a jump up in the later phases of its service life.

[great central]

Indeed, that's what they'd like you to believe, when of coarse they were actually part of the franchise specification for whoever took over.

 

As discussed elsewhere however, whether these things actually manage to run on the east coast remains to be seen.

Latest is, a number of HSTs are being retained as 1 in 3 out of KX have to be diesel as they're overpwered for the wires.

That's on top of they won't apparently keep HST timings on diesel sections, take too much power to go north of Newcastle on electric,

and doubtful they can even reach Inverness (and there's no word yet of the diesel on EC sets being uprated as on the GW sets)

 

I can't help wondering if that is some kind of smokescreen. I read in, I think, Modern Railways a couple of years ago a breakdown in the lease costs for these IEPs. Although I don't know the lease costs of the current fleet, the costs quoted for the IEPs was, to my mind, very very high. It seemed to me to get the money to pay the rent every coach on every train would have to be pretty much full at all times, and we all know that doesn't happen.

[Coryton]

Whatever faults the IEP may have, I'm pretty sure it'll work. Most new assets have commissioning and entry into service issues, during which time we get all sorts of doom laden scare stories and indulge in some rather enjoyable schadenfreude. Equipment tends to follow a bathtub curve, lots of problems in it's early phase, settling down to steady and reliable operation before the curve takes a jump up in the later phases of its service life.

 

Quite.

 

Let's wait and see.

 

I tend not to pay much attention to the doom-and-gloom stories because these things tend to be said whether or not there are real problems.

 

Going off-topic a bit, I believe that these days there is a lot more on-board monitoring with the ability to often replace components before they fail rather than after. I wonder if this flattens the bathtub curve a bit but instead you see maintenance costs go up? (To the extent that the bathtub curve is reality rather than an idealisation anyway).

[lmsforever]

It seems as the only people interested in running our railways are the state owned networks from Europe and beyond with the Chinese seemingly wanting to own GB  in total.There are only three companies that can operate networks here and they seem to be only able to bid if a foreign partner is in tow.The financial situation governed by the DFT seems to be extremely onerous and constant interference by civil servants must drive rail men mad as railways are just a pawn in the political world it seems.Perhaps in the future franchises will be let for groups of lines so as to maximise profits and make certain that a high level of service is offered to passengers .For instance Midland could go with WCML and EC with Anglia maybe savings would be made and delivery at the coal face made a better experience than that offered now.But knowing how civil servants minds work this will never happen and short term contracts will continue ,twenty year agreements work and should happen more often ,we all it works but we are only taxpayers.

[cravensdmufan]

Interesting bit about the ECML (as well as other franchises) in this article from Railnews, the industry's newspaper.

 

https://www.railnews.co.uk/news/2017/07/03-franchising-timetable-slips-again.html

 

What an absolute mess!

[Ron Ron Ron]

Interesting bit about the ECML (as well as other franchises) in this article from Railnews, the industry's newspaper.

 

https://www.railnews.co.uk/news/2017/07/03-franchising-timetable-slips-again.html

 

What an absolute mess!

A mess entirely down to the DaFT's own making in encouraging and accepting excessive bids in the franchise competition.

Bidders are effectively forced to over-bid if they have any chance of winning.

Based entirely on expected increased growth in traffic and revenue, there is no allowance or headroom in the franchise to accomodate a levelling off, let alone a fall, in passenger demand.

 

 

 

Ron

[Pandora]

Azuma units Latest is, a number of HSTs are being retained as 1 in 3 out of KX have to be diesel as they're overpowered for the wires.

 

Which part of the traction power system  is the problem?    Is it the line supply being overloaded by the Azuma,.... the 25kV catenary overhead wires  , or the traction return side of the system,   the running rail bonds "red bonds" etc.   which return the "used" electricity back to the traction lineside  huts

[cravensdmufan]

Azuma units Latest is, a number of HSTs are being retained as 1 in 3 out of KX have to be diesel as they're overpowered for the wires.

 

Which part of the traction power system  is the problem?    Is it the line supply being overloaded by the Azuma,.... the 25kV catenary overhead wires  , or the traction return side of the system,   the running rail bonds "red bonds" etc.   which return the "used" electricity back to the traction lineside  huts

Sounds even more of a mess.

 

What a recipe:

 

40 year old trains which are reliable and work,  Add in the main ingredient - 28 year old trains which are well built and pretty reliable. No, actually substitute those first two ingredients with new trains which may or may not work on certain parts of the route.  Mix in 9 parts Stagecoach with 1 part Virgin which don't gel that well. Sprinkle of dodgy catenary which needs updating.

 

There you have it, folks - the situation we are in after 20 years and four operators since BR INTERCITY was forced to hand over it's fully integrated flagship route.

 

Shameful.

[Coryton]

What a recipe:

 

40 year old trains which are reliable and work,  Add in the main ingredient - 28 year old trains which are well built and pretty reliable. No, actually substitute those first two ingredients with new trains which may or may not work on certain parts of the route.  Mix in 9 parts Stagecoach with 1 part Virgin which don't gel that well.

 

I think there is a good chance that they will work as designed.

 

 

Sprinkle of dodgy catenary which needs updating.

 

There you have it, folks - the situation we are in after 20 years and four operators since BR INTERCITY was forced to hand over it's fully integrated flagship route.

 

The "dodgy catenary" of course being part of BR's flagship route...

[frobisher]

Azuma units Latest is, a number of HSTs are being retained as 1 in 3 out of KX have to be diesel as they're overpowered for the wires.

 

Which part of the traction power system  is the problem?    Is it the line supply being overloaded by the Azuma,.... the 25kV catenary overhead wires  , or the traction return side of the system,   the running rail bonds "red bonds" etc.   which return the "used" electricity back to the traction lineside  huts

It's the naysayers latching onto the wrong part of the message and misrepresenting it...

 

Individual Azumas draw less from the supply than a 225 set, so on a one-for-one replacement of those, there is no issue at all. The supply on some sections of the ECML (north of Newcastle in particular) is not sufficient (yet) to run the current electric services plus all the current HST services replaced by Azumas.

 

So a fault of the infrastructure, not the Azumas.

Edited July 5, 2017 by frobisher

[Ken.W]

I think there is a good chance that they will work as designed.

 

The "dodgy catenary" of course being part of BR's flagship route...

 

1. Unfortunately however, they were designed (at least in specification) by DaFT

 

2. As specified by HM Treasury

 

It's the naysayers latching onto the wrong part of the message and misrepresenting it...

 

Individual Azumas draw less from the supply than a 225 set, so on a one-for-one replacement of those, there is no issue at all. The supply on some sections of the ECML (north of Newcastle in particular) is not sufficient (yet) to run the current electric services plus all the current HST services replaced by Azumas.

 

So a fault of the infrastructure, not the Azumas.

 

So in todays fragmented system, it's too much to expect the IEProject to design trains to run on the existing infrastructure,

or to upgrade the infrastructure in time for them (and where else have we heard that?)

Issues over Inverness seem to be their inability on diesel to match HST, particularly with the route over Drumochter and Slochd, and possibly insufficient fuel capacity

Edited July 5, 2017 by Ken.W

[frobisher]

So in todays fragmented system, it's too much to expect the IEProject to design trains to run on the existing infrastructure,

or to upgrade the infrastructure in time for them (and where else have we heard that?)

Or put it another way, the "failings" of the IEP are in fact due to elements outside of the IEP...

 

Issues over Inverness seem to be their inability on diesel to match HST, particularly with the route over Drumochter and Slochd, and possibly insufficient fuel capacity

Given they haven't yet trialled them over the route, it's a little early to prejudge. On paper, the 5 car sets (which are likely what will be running to Inverness) have greater HP at rail per car than the current HST sets on the route, and given the line speed I suspect there will be little issue with them keeping to the same timings. Fuel may be an issue if you are running all the way from London on diesel, but then that shouldn't be happening (you make damn sure the ones that are going the farthest get to use the juice the longest if you're having to ration the overhead line capacity).