High Speed Diesel Train (HSDT) - The Story continues

[jjb1970]

If Locomotion thought the project was finincially viable I'm sure they'd go ahead. The fact they've suspended it indicates they do not see it as being viable at this time. If conditions change then I'm sure they'll revisit the project. No business is going to invest in a project unless they're sufficiently confident that they will make an adequate return from it. In the meantime there is nothing stopping anybody else, be it regular manufacturer, commissioner or kick starter, having a go. I'm probably a lot more sceptical than most here about some of the rationale offered to us on pricing but I really can't criticize Locomotion or Rapido in this case.

[dibber25]

 

If Locomotion thought the project was finincially viable I'm sure they'd go ahead. The fact they've suspended it indicates they do not see it as being viable at this time. If conditions change then I'm sure they'll revisit the project. No business is going to invest in a project unless they're sufficiently confident that they will make an adequate return from it. In the meantime there is nothing stopping anybody else, be it regular manufacturer, commissioner or kick starter, having a go. I'm probably a lot more sceptical than most here about some of the rationale offered to us on pricing but I really can't criticize Locomotion or Rapido in this case.

 

 

It is an inevitable spin-off of our own enthusiasm that, just because we want a particular item, we believe that lots of other people will feel the same way. Sadly, it isn't always true and some of the models being proposed nowadays really are marginal in terms of demand. On a personal basis, I would like the gas turbine 18000, ready-to-run in 'OO'. With Rapido's interest in the gas turbine APT-E I would think that 18000 would be a great loco for them to do. I have, however, come to realise that I am just about the only person who feels that way. In a similar fashion I would suspect that there is very limited interest in the HSDT, a train which only ran for a short time and differed substantially from the production version, such that there is no significant interchangeability in model components. I know the same applied to the APT-E but maybe that's it - one odd-ball record-breaker you can get away with, but how many folk want more than one? (CJL)

[UP 4000]

I can't see where finances and lack of interest come into it, it was never released, no order book, no way of judging the interest within the model.

 

Rapido only announced it to stop other manufactures jumping on it.

 

Yes there saying it's due the economy, but it's not affecting all the other projects there doing and there's no order book or expression of interest on them either.

 

APT-E, I have 2,

Edited February 11, 2017 by UP 4000

[amwells]

I'd quite like a model of 18000 - you aren't alone Chris!

 

Back on topic, the point about no order book is pertinent - who will know what the market could support (at any price) - it wasn't tested.

[The Stationmaster]

   

 

It is an inevitable spin-off of our own enthusiasm that, just because we want a particular item, we believe that lots of other people will feel the same way. Sadly, it isn't always true and some of the models being proposed nowadays really are marginal in terms of demand. On a personal basis, I would like the gas turbine 18000, ready-to-run in 'OO'. With Rapido's interest in the gas turbine APT-E I would think that 18000 would be a great loco for them to do. I have, however, come to realise that I am just about the only person who feels that way. In a similar fashion I would suspect that there is very limited interest in the HSDT, a train which only ran for a short time and differed substantially from the production version, such that there is no significant interchangeability in model components. I know the same applied to the APT-E but maybe that's it - one odd-ball record-breaker you can get away with, but how many folk want more than one? (CJL)

 

I know three manufacturers/commissioners who looked in what could be described as an 'interested' manner at 18000 and then shook their heads and walked away.  I don't doubt that it probably would sell and, provided the rate of rusting doesn't speed up, it is quite scannable as it stands but it then comes back to the same old question - is it a commercial proposition?  Clearly that is the question which has been asked of the Prototype HST power cars and the answer was - in present circumstances - equally negative.

 

It doesn't really matter what we, the potential end customers, think about that decision because unless we commit (with money) in sufficient numbers to justify a decision to go-ahead then the project won't be likely to run in the way in which Rapido (and their association with the NRM) have no alternative but to run it because in present uncertain cost and pricing circumstances it is too big a risk for either of them. And, coming back to CJL's closing comment above, just how big a market is there for record breakers that did little else in relatively short lives?

[phil-b259]

I can't see where finances and lack of interest come into it, it was never released, no order book, no way of judging the interest within the model.

 

Rapido only announced it to stop other manufactures jumping on it.

 

Yes there saying it's due the economy, but it's not affecting all the other projects there doing and there's no order book or expression of interest on them either.

 

APT-E, I have 2,

 

You obviously haven't been paying attention to Rapido's statements.

 

(1) The N gauge Pendalinos being produced as we speak will make a LOSS for Rapido thanks the the plummet in the value of the Pound since that project was started. The implication is that Rapido (and their partners) are too far down the line to pause it - not surprising given all the hours spent designing and making the tooling, arranging factory slots, etc.

 

(2) The HSDT project by contrast was still at the early design stage and thus had not got to the stage where serious money was being spent. As such it was sensible to put it on hold until the money side can be made to work (which effectively needs the Pound to increase substantially in value against other currencies - and stay that way.

 

(3) The HSDT is in no way comparable to the APT-E, which basically consisted of two identical power cars and two identical trailers. The HSDT by contrast has at least 3 different design of trailers (not that different from the Pendalino Rapido are doing) - plus there were a lot more of them on the HSDT compared to the APT-E thus pushing the price up.

 

(4) The HSDT is, like the APT-E, a one off. in other words most people will only purchase a single example. A multiple unit like the 156 or freight wagons were built in large numbers and comes with a wide variety of liveries to chose from making it more likely people will buy more than a single example. This in turn means more sales and more customers over which to spread the development costs - [particularly as the amount of liveries possible allows for fresh batches to be made year on year.

 

(5) Finally were the APT-E being proposed now (instead of the HSDT) its fairly likely then the adverse financial situation would have seen that project 'paused' as well

 

(6) This sort of postponement is exactly what economists were warning about last summer when they campaigned against a 'Leave' vote. The financial markets hates uncertainty - and with no meaningful information on what our post Brexit trading relationships will be with the rest of the world, combined with a protectionist president in charge of the USA, companies are increasingly looking at putting investment decisions on hold unless they (i) are too far gone to stop or (ii) will still produce a profit.

Edited February 11, 2017 by phil-b259

[dibber25]

 

I can't see where finances and lack of interest come into it, it was never released, no order book, no way of judging the interest within the model.

 

Rapido only announced it to stop other manufactures jumping on it.

 

Yes there saying it's due the economy, but it's not affecting all the other projects there doing and there's no order book or expression of interest on them either.

 

APT-E, I have 2,

 

I think your comments are more than a little off the mark. I know of no manufacturer who was about to 'jump on it'. The Locomotion/Rapido operation is a partnership so Rapido is unlikely to have any interest in going it alone on such a project. I'm sure Rapido's interest came from conversation with Locomotion and with the HSDT preservation group about an obvious successor to the APT-E project. Once you have a successful project which brings in a substantial sum, that sum then gets written into next year's budget with (usually) a little extra on top. You have to have a follow-up project.

The economy is, of course, affecting all the projects everyone is doing, because at the moment it is unpredictable. Some projects have enough potential in them to weather that storm and manufacturers and those commissioning models have to make a judgement as to what will sell in sufficient numbers to give them a worthwhile return. They may do that by opening a pre-order book or by taking a straw-poll of interested people, or they may do it by gut-feeling based on their knowledge of the market. Such decisions are never easy. (CJL)

[Mr_Tilt]

 And, coming back to CJL's closing comment above, just how big a market is there for record breakers that did little else in relatively short lives?

 

I know this ought to be in the APT-E thread, but as you raised the point......

 

The APT-E did LOTS more than just break the British Railway Speed Record for non-electric trains.

 

If it wasn't for E-Train proving that the 'Wickens Technology' wheelsets worked as designed most of the high speed rail vehicles world-wide wouldn't be doing the speeds they are doing now. It also proved that the lightweight, high power concept was viable and in my own particular field proved that practical high power tilt systems could be built and worked as well.

 

If it wasn't for Alan Wickens formative wheel/rail work that lead onto E-Train even the HST wouldn't be running at the speeds it has been for the last umpteen years.

[UP 4000]

Do apologise, Don't follow N gauge, Don't always get there news letters, And guessing rather thick,

 

Considering they were only doing power cars of the HSDT then far simpler than APT-E, Yes not everyone is interested in HSDT, I'm not interested in DMU's/EMU's, Tankers and Containers.

 

So is every project being cancelled then??  Surly they not all that far down the line.

 

I cannot guarantee the truth about other manufactures because I cannot remember where I heard it, but was informed it was announced earlier than it was suppose to, To keep other manufactures off it.

 

Possibly Hornby? Dapol? they are still considering doing a N gauge version even though the interest was rather underwhelming.

[jjb1970]

One of the most important skills in any business is understanding the market you operate in. There was no order book, no deposits taken etc so in a sense it is true that we don't know what the level of interest and demand was/is. On the other hand, Locomotion should have a reasonable idea of what sort of interest they expected, they'll have a good idea of how much the model would have to cost to make a profit and some understanding of how that price would affect demand. If Locomotionhave made the decision that the project is not viable at this time then it will not have been a decision taken lightly and will be based on their judgement of the market.

I wonder how much of this is down to Heljan, not in a bad way but Heljan made their prototype and pilot diesels and seemed to do well enough out of oddball models that few ever expected to see as RTR models. I wonder if that has led to a perception that anything, no matter how niche, is good RTR fodder? Maybe we're seeing a return to a more conservative approach and away from oddball releases?

[phil-b259]

Do apologise, Don't follow N gauge, Don't always get there news letters, And guessing rather thick,

 

Considering they were only doing power cars of the HSDT then far simpler than APT-E, Yes not everyone is interested in HSDT, I'm not interested in DMU's/EMU's, Tankers and Containers.

 

So is every project being cancelled then??  Surly they not all that far down the line.

 

I cannot guarantee the truth about other manufactures because I cannot remember where I heard it, but was informed it was announced earlier than it was suppose to, To keep other manufactures off it.

 

Possibly Hornby? Dapol? they are still considering doing a N gauge version even though the interest was rather underwhelming.

 

Apology welcomed - its always better to either find out the facts or proceed cautiously when advancing theories.

 

They were not "only considering doing the power cars". Yes at the initial launch of the project Rapido were non-committal about the rolling stock and only guaranteed to tool up the power cars, but 6 months on they confirmed they would also be doing the coaches and as such the project was far more complex than the APT-E. I would also point out that whether you personally are interested in DMUs / EMUs / Tankers / Containers is not relevant* - Rapido are running a business and it simply is that the financial numbers work for those products, but don't for the HSDT until the Pound recovers its value on the financial markets.

 

No not every project is being cancelled - the  Pendalino in N is going ahead (despite Rapido making a loss on it), so is the Stirling single (although one of the tender types has been dropped due to lack of interest) as are the TEA tanks, 156s, etc (see here for full details http://uk.rapidotrains.com/)

 

Have you considered that it was announced slightly earlier due to say - someone at Locomotion letting it slip to the press in an unguarded moment? Such things do happen - even to FTSE 100 listed companies occasionally and rather than simply sit tight it could be that the launch was bought forward. Alternatively maybe some initiative came along that presented a better opportunity to launch the project.

 

As for anyone else doing it? forget Hornby, they have quite enough to be getting on with at present as they recover from a pretty disastrous few years where they over promised but under delivered. Bachmann also have problems with getting things to the market and have a large backlog to clear. Dapol? Maybe - they did produce the LMS twins in competition with Bachmann / Rails,  but if Dapol did the HSDT I doubt it would be as good as Rapido could do. You also need to remember that given the surviving power car is part of the National Collection, access to the vehicle for measuring up has to be arranged through the NRM. As they already have an agreement with Rapido then I seriously doubt they would let anyone else measure up the prototype unless the partnership between them was dissolved.

 

*So far, I have no interest in any of Rapido's product line - it doesn't fit with what I model. That doesn't stop me wanting them to be sucessfull in the business though.

[UP 4000]

Apology welcomed - its always better to either find out the facts or proceed cautiously when advancing theories.

 

They were not "only considering doing the power cars". Yes at the initial launch of the project Rapido were non-committal about the rolling stock and only guaranteed to tool up the power cars, but 6 months on they confirmed they would also be doing the coaches and as such the project was far more complex than the APT-E. I would also point out that whether you personally are interested in DMUs / EMUs / Tankers / Containers is not relevant* - Rapido are running a business and it simply is that the financial numbers work for those products, but don't for the HSDT until the Pound recovers its value on the financial markets.

 

No not every project is being cancelled - the  Pendalino in N is going ahead (despite Rapido making a loss on it), so is the Stirling single (although one of the tender types has been dropped due to lack of interest) as are the TEA tanks, 156s, etc (see here for full details http://uk.rapidotrains.com/)

 

Have you considered that it was announced slightly earlier due to say - someone at Locomotion letting it slip to the press in an unguarded moment? Such things do happen - even to FTSE 100 listed companies occasionally and rather than simply sit tight it could be that the launch was bought forward. Alternatively maybe some initiative came along that presented a better opportunity to launch the project.

 

As for anyone else doing it? forget Hornby, they have quite enough to be getting on with at present as they recover from a pretty disastrous few years where they over promised but under delivered. Bachmann also have problems with getting things to the market and have a large backlog to clear. Dapol? Maybe - they did produce the LMS twins in competition with Bachmann / Rails,  but if Dapol did the HSDT I doubt it would be as good as Rapido could do. You also need to remember that given the surviving power car is part of the National Collection, access to the vehicle for measuring up has to be arranged through the NRM. As they already have an agreement with Rapido then I seriously doubt they would let anyone else measure up the prototype unless the partnership between them was dissolved.

 

*So far, I have no interest in any of Rapido's product line - it doesn't fit with what I model. That doesn't stop me wanting them to be sucessfull in the business though.

 

More than happy to hold my hands up when I'm wrong, I'm not an expert in the financial market, I look at the basics, HSDT was announced a long time ago, other projects has been announced after her, She is the only one to be put on the back burner, like I said in post #198 it can become one big project for them.

I really didn't word it correctly, finances was meant by that I couldn't see the point of kickstarters or deposits, If 100 people paid a deposit and funds were raised it doesn't mean it is viable to produce the model, and there not going to make it because of that.

Please don't think I'm pointing the finger of who was doing it, I honestly don't know, It was mentioned in a conversation which I can't remember if it was at a show I was talking to someone or not, but was told they had to announce it before 3rd parties possibly did.

To tackle this after APT-E, and Stirling has given them some issues, was one big undertaking and quite overwhelming,

Hornby could have done it as they do have MK3's and stick a new nose on a current HST, colour change, spit and polish, near enough in there minds, Not to Rapido's standards though.

Dapol, if they do it (N scale) is in conjunction with the miller project, which the 125group are the custodians of 41001.

 

I'm sorry about all of this, but do think there is something more to this than the current economy, you can't blame lack of interest because there is no way of showing it, no polls, no advance orders, other projects are still going ahead (I understand locked into pendalino and stirling) Brush 92 and J70 (Toby the Tram) newly announced the economy isn't affecting them. It was also mentioned that at the Warley show they were not doing the coaches.

 

I stand by my post #198, Rapido want to do it right, Possibly a bit to overwhelming for them at the moment, need to get things settled, recover from there losses, few more projects under there belt, then all guns blazing,

[47164]

Disappointing as it is, let's not forget that rapido and locomotion are not multi nationals with unlimited resources, so maybe we just need to be patient for the time being, unless oxford have an iron hidden in the fire !

[RJennings]

Whilst disappointing news it's not a surprise at the moment with the currency markets the way they are but on the upside on hold is better than cancelled outright. I wish both parties all the best and hope that one day this project sees the release it deserves as no doubt will be a fantastic model.

[Legend]

I think a contributory factor in postponing the HSDT is what you would run it with. I'm not really interested in just buying a power car , I'd really want the whole train. If Rapido/Locomotion had said it was going to be a 4 car set with additional trailers available, as with their APTE , I think there might have been a bit more interest. The APTE was very well priced, and as Brexit has happened in between the costs would have inevitably risen , maybe by 20% just on basis of currency .

 

I wasn't aware Rapido had announced they were doing the coaches. I'm puzzled as there was certainly a lot of comment over on the Oxford thread as to whether they would bring out their mk3s in prototype livery to go with power car.

[jjb1970]

As has been said by others, the project seems to be deferred rather than cancelled. So if sterling recovers, if economic conditions favour production then the project can be re-activated. I must admit I wonder if the coaches have been a bit of a killer. Modelling the complete train must push up development and production costs hugely, and I suspect there will be some locomotive collectors who just want the power car while others would happily accept the Oxford model in prototype colours if NRM did a deal with Oxford.

[phil-b259]

I wasn't aware Rapido had announced they were doing the coaches. I'm puzzled as there was certainly a lot of comment over on the Oxford thread as to whether they would bring out their mk3s in prototype livery to go with power car.

 

Some of that was because initially Rapido / Locomotion stonewalled any questions regarding the trailers - and with Oxford announcing their Mk3s, lots of people started talking about them doing the prototype Mk3s as an alternative..

 

The thing is the prototype Mk3s had lots of subtle differences to the production ones, so it wasn't a case of simply painting Oxfords releases in the prototype livery.

 

Some time after the initial announcement *6 months IIRC), Rapido then said they would be doing the trailers as  well.

[Legend]

I think realistically you are not going to see every coach in HSDT modelled. But a TS would have been useful

[amwells]

Some time after the initial announcement *6 months IIRC), Rapido then said they would be doing the trailers as well.

Like you I thought it was about that timespan, looking back at this post: http://www.rmweb.co....2015/?p=2115234

Seems like it was only a month between announcement of power car and statement on coaches, although it was a qualified statement!

[Sir TophamHatt]

If Locomotion thought the project was finincially viable I'm sure they'd go ahead. The fact they've suspended it indicates they do not see it as being viable at this time.

 

No business is going to invest in a project unless they're sufficiently confident that they will make an adequate return from it.

 

But even if they made 0 money from it, so long as they've covered costs, it could be a way to get their name out there for future projects.

[Roy Langridge]

But even if they made 0 money from it, so long as they've covered costs, it could be a way to get their name out there for future projects.

And where does the funding for the next model come from? Smaller companies need profit to reinvest.

 

Roy

[Vistisen]

But even if they made 0 money from it, so long as they've covered costs, it could be a way to get their name out there for future projects.

 

That's what the PT-E project was. You have to earn a profit to survive. I think that Rapido is doing the only possible thing by reefing in the sails ( sales?) and weathering the coming perfect storm of Brexit pounding the umm... pound, and tRUMP going up against the Chinese. If the world survives the next few years then there might still be a market for Rapido to sell things to, I want them to be there that happy day!

[jjb1970]

But even if they made 0 money from it, so long as they've covered costs, it could be a way to get their name out there for future projects.

 

Rapido aren't a charity (even if the NRM is), you can't run a business making 0 profit from the product you make. Rapido are reportable making a loss on the N gauge Pendolino as they're honouring the pre-sterling plunge and I suspect the APT-E was quite aggressively priced to establish them in the UK (it was an outright bargain). You can't pay a mortgage on goodwill and if we want companies to take the risk of financing new projects and make the effort to do all the research and hard work then there has to be a profit. Ask yourself the question - would you work for no reward? You might do some pro-bono work but you'd expect a decent return for your effort for most of the work you do.

[JSpencer]

Apparently the APT-E did take 3 months to assemble instead of 1. On the other hand, this model does not require a whole load of under frame bits which is generally Rapido's trade mark which probably helped to maintain some cost.

 

Being realistic, I would say that if the HSDT does appear, we will be looking at least at £200 a loco without sound. We can add another £75 to £100 on top (this might move much as cheaper chips are starting to appear now).

 

Coaches are another story, the NRM said they were looking at a manufacturer to do them, Rapido was a contender at the start it seems then Oxfordrail annouced theirs, and it seems that IF coaches are done they or Hornby are probable candidates.

But again we could expect say at least £50 a coach and there were 10 of them (you could probably cut a couple back through research).

 

That makes a train for at least £900. Few could afford that in the year one and the NRM probably will not want to finance that lot of tooling in one hit.

So logically, we would probably see the locos first and the coaches following later (the TS could be one model with a set of transfers for example like they did with spare APT cars). Even then, how many will buy the full train?

[PrestburyJack]

........ Even then, how many will buy the full train?

 

Or even part of the train.

 

Isn't that partly the issue - as far as I am aware, no-one has actually asked this question? Surely unless they do, they have no way of knowing whether there would be sufficient interest or not. Perhaps they could ask for 'Expressions of interest' to gauge the market. And if that results in sufficient numbers, perhaps a deposit as they did with the APT-E. And then, and only then, would we know if it is viable or not.

Edited February 15, 2017 by PrestburyJack