High Speed Diesel Train (HSDT) - The Story continues

[Downendian]

The mechanism to place preorders for this model was rather obscure, I'd have bought two power cars, but didn't preorder as waiting for something on the Locomotion models website. The £$ issue was cited as the main reason, but I'm hoping it wasn't down to low numbers of preorders/expressions of interest.

Neil

[UP 4000]

The mechanism to place preorders for this model was rather obscure, I'd have bought two power cars, but didn't preorder as waiting for something on the Locomotion models website. The £$ issue was cited as the main reason, but I'm hoping it wasn't down to low numbers of preorders/expressions of interest.

Neil

 

I highly doubt it is due to lack of interest as it was never released for pre-order, Take the Stirling for example, 4 were released for pre-order sound/non sound with either it's preserved tender or original tender,

Due to lack of interest the preserved tender was dropped.

 

In the end it's come down to cost not lack of interest,

 

Thanks Brexit and trouser pump for screwing this up!

[Vistisen]

Ironic that a model of the prototype for one of the last great sucess stories for British train building gets sunk by Brexit!

[rapidotrains]

Dunno about that, but am I the only one upset or disappointed by the inference this is a "modern image" model?! It's nearly 50 years old! Will they assuage modern image modellers with a new A4 or something?!

 

 

I was thinking about that yesterday when the guys and I were working on my layout. It's based in 1980, which is considered "modern" to most North American modellers. The 1950s are still the most modelled decade over here.

 

But there are new generations of modellers born in the 1990s who see 1980 as ancient!

 

-Jason

[phil-b259]

Am I the only one that isn't upset or disappointed by this news, selfishly.

 

Cheers

 

Shane

 

 

A shame but not a surprise. So my Lima with Genesis class 252 ends project moves up the to do list.

I suppose we can count our blessings that APT-E was done before the exchange rate reduced Rapidos profit margin.

Perhaps an opportunity for Shane to make his radiator grille etches commercially available?

Neil

 

I think people are rather overlooking some considerable differences between the APT-E and the HSDT

 

The APT-E is a short compact unit - 2 near enough identical power cars and 2 near enough identical (externally at least) passenger / instrumentation coaches. - Thats it!

 

The HSDT ran with 2 power cars and 7 Mk3s - which are different from the production Mk3 builds (or 6 Mk3s and a repainted Mk1).

 

Hence to do the HSDT train justice requires considerable more expenditure than was necessary for the APT-E. OK Rapido could just do the power cars - but even though they were used on all sorts of things before withdrawal, you really need do the prototype Mk3s to do it justice - in addition to which only doing 'part' of such an iconic train does not fit with Rapido's ethos.

 

Hopefully in two years or so, we will have finalised the Brexit details thus allowing the long term financial picture for the UK (and the £) to become clear - but at present its totally understandable that Rapido / Locomotion have paused the project. As I said to many at the time - Brexit may well bring us lots of opportunities, but it will also cause lots of uncertainty in the short term and investment decisions will take a hit as a result. It may only be model trains but Rapido's decision is just one of many such decisions we are starting to see happening in various bits of the economy.

Edited January 28, 2017 by phil-b259

[njee20]

I was thinking about that yesterday when the guys and I were working on my layout. It's based in 1980, which is considered "modern" to most North American modellers. The 1950s are still the most modelled decade over here.

 

But there are new generations of modellers born in the 1990s who see 1980 as ancient!

 

-Jason

Interesting! I guess not a million miles from the situation here - many exhibitors count modern as anything blue and grey onward. I'm born in 1986, so I agree that 1980 is pretty well ancient history!

[amwells]

Let's hope the project gets resurrected at some point because it is an iconic loco / train

[Fenman]

Interesting! I guess not a million miles from the situation here - many exhibitors count modern as anything blue and grey onward. I'm born in 1986, so I agree that 1980 is pretty well ancient history!

A mind game can be played to give a different sense of time passing. Take your birth year and, instead of counting forward to today, count backwards. It turns out the opening of the Liverpool & Manchester is closer to my mother's birth year than 2017 is. The entire First World War is closer to my own birth year than today.

 

The game sometimes puts "ancient history" into a different light. Which is why it can be a bit shocking when you have to recalibrate your sense of history.

 

Paul

[Downendian]

I think people are rather overlooking some considerable differences between the APT-E and the HSDT

 

The APT-E is a short compact unit - 2 near enough identical power cars and 2 near enough identical (externally at least) passenger / instrumentation coaches. - Thats it!

 

The HSDT ran with 2 power cars and 7 Mk3s - which are different from the production Mk3 builds (or 6 Mk3s and a repainted Mk1).

 

Hence to do the HSDT train justice requires considerable more expenditure than was necessary for the APT-E. OK Rapido could just do the power cars - but even though they were used on all sorts of things before withdrawal, you really need do the prototype Mk3s to do it justice - in addition to which only doing 'part' of such an iconic train does not fit with Rapido's ethos.

 

.

As you've quoted my post ...... I'm not overlooking this at all, I do know that there were differences between the prototype and production mark 3s, and have posted this in various threads. As you have also quoted Shane who has built IMO the best prototype HST set out there, here a link to his thread describing the build. The rail express article describes the mods needed to the mark 3s.

http://www.rmweb.co.uk/community/index.php?/topic/56462-prototype-hst/?p=690712

 

Locomotion had only said they were doing the power cars for now, one tooling, compared to APT-E with 4 vehicles. But you're right, to do the 252 set justice all vehicles would be nice -eventually. However it would not take too much for someone like Oxford to retool their new mark 3s. Whether they would be up to a Rapido offering is another question.

Neil

Edited January 29, 2017 by Downendian

[Guest 40-something]

A very big negative after the build up.

 

Had been looking forwards to this and this is a h..u..g..e disappointment. Not interested in buses or railbuses at all. 

if anything it should be taken as a positive rather than a negative.  The project isn;t cancelled, its paused to see how the currency exchange works out.  I'd much rather see that than the project go ahead at a huge cost to Rapido/NRM with very low returns.  That could have the negative effect of Rapdio not seeing it as worthwhile to work with the NRM again.

 

The Realtrack/Rapido DMUs will sell a lot more than the 252's, and Rapido's bus model is a standalone product in their own range.  Both of these cannot be compared to the HSDT

[Vistisen]

A mind game can be played to give a different sense of time passing. Take your birth year and, instead of counting forward to today, count backwards. It turns out the opening of the Liverpool & Manchester is closer to my mother's birth year than 2017 is. The entire First World War is closer to my own birth year than today.

 

The game sometimes puts "ancient history" into a different light. Which is why it can be a bit shocking when you have to recalibrate your sense of history.

 

Paul

 

Thanks now I really feel old.

[Anthony566]

I was looking forward to these power cars

[The Stationmaster]

Thanks now I really feel old.

 

If you really want to feel old try this one -

 

My father (who died just before his 90th birthday) was born 102 years ago, the Battle of Waterloo took place 99 years and 8 months before he was born.   The past is a lot closer than you might think and, based on his date of retirement, one of my great grandfathers would have worked worked on the final gauge conversion of the GWR.

[Sir TophamHatt]

Why didn't they just do a Kickstarter campaign?

 

I'd be happy to pay upfront at a sensible price.  Then [the builder] can see how many people would be interested from the outset.  While I appreciate not everyone would go for a Kickstarter campaign, at least it would help gather funds from the beginning.

[Paul.Uni]

Why didn't they just do a Kickstarter campaign?

 

I'd be happy to pay upfront at a sensible price.  Then [the builder] can see how many people would be interested from the outset.  While I appreciate not everyone would go for a Kickstarter campaign, at least it would help gather funds from the beginning.

Rapido have said that the problem at the moment is the fall of the value and the instability of the pound. If it came in at a loss due to the exchange rates, what would you do? Expect Rapido and the NRM to take a loss or ask for more money from those who have already paid, possibly pushing it above 'a sensible price' (assuming that it was able to be at one in the first place)? Also as far as I know the rules of using Kickstarter do not allow you to ask for further money once fund-raising has closed.

Edited February 7, 2017 by Paul.Uni

[Roy Langridge]

Rapido have said that the problem at the moment is the fall of the value and the instability of the pound. If it came in at a loss due to the exchange rates, what would you do? Expect Rapido and the NRM to take a loss or ask for more money from those who have already paid, possibly pushing it above 'a sensible price'?

Exactly, I think getting orders is not be the issue, knowing what to charge for them is.

 

Roy

[Sir TophamHatt]

Hmm.  I guess it depends on how much profit you want to make.

 

If they work out the costs based on todays value, work out how many people are likely to make a pre-order, then that should give an indication on how much to charge.  Use that for the Kickstarter, which will likely get more orders anyway, and then up the price by 10% for after Kickstarter.

 

If production was limited to 1000, then the math is even easier to work out.

 

The pound rate won't change significantly over the next few months, and while small increases or decreases will happen, calculating the rates to a lower pound value could mitigate this.  But because there's no indication of cost, then it all hinges on the "sensible price" variable.

 

For the power cars, charge anywhere from £150-£200 or £250 - £300 range for DCC ready - that's £250,000 at the lower end.  I'm sure the Kickstarter could start at the £250 and head up.  With a limited run, people would buy.

[Fenman]

... The pound rate won't change significantly over the next few months ...

Good to know.

 

Do you have next week's Lottery numbers, too?

 

Paul

[mikeharvey22]

Hmm.  I guess it depends on how much profit you want to make.

 

If they work out the costs based on todays value, work out how many people are likely to make a pre-order, then that should give an indication on how much to charge.  Use that for the Kickstarter, which will likely get more orders anyway, and then up the price by 10% for after Kickstarter.

 

If production was limited to 1000, then the math is even easier to work out.

 

The pound rate won't change significantly over the next few months, and while small increases or decreases will happen, calculating the rates to a lower pound value could mitigate this.  But because there's no indication of cost, then it all hinges on the "sensible price" variable.

 

For the power cars, charge anywhere from £150-£200 or £250 - £300 range for DCC ready - that's £250,000 at the lower end.  I'm sure the Kickstarter could start at the £250 and head up.  With a limited run, people would buy.

What profit level do you want from your Kickstarter, factoring your time and launch finance? Once you have an answer for this, it might be worth asking Locomotion/Rapido if you can take over the project. A sound business case supported by research will no doubt persuade a lender to stump up the funds. The advantage is that the HSDT will not then be competing with other projects with better financial returns and lower risk profiles in someone else's portfolio. And you would be doing 1000+ people a favour too. No brainer!

[UP 4000]

I don't think kickstarters or deposits is going to help, it's not a finance issue, Even though the economy is a bit iffy at the moment there's a bit more to it than profits.

 

Rapido are still pushing forward with other developments, announcing new projects and with other companies (RealTrack and Revolution) these haven't been put on hold and I couldn't see NRM/Locomotion getting cold feet over this.

The problem seems to be with the HSDT project, has it become a bit to overwhelming for them at the moment, have we frightened them with all our demands?

 

What might have started as a model of the power car with the option of sound/non-sound has now escaladed into a twin pack model, yet again sound/non-sound, But now we also want coaches, 7 of, each one different, how do you sell them?

All seven, 1 three coach pack, 1 four coach pack or individually? Yes I know Oxford may be planning on doing the coaches, but deep down I think Rapido would rather do there own.

 

So for the HSDT,

 

Single power car in Blue/Grey-Non-Sound

Single power car in Blue/Grey-Sound

Single power car in Departmental-Non-Sound

Single power car in Departmental-Sound

 

Twin power cars in Blue/Grey-Non-Sound

Twin power cars in Blue/Grey-Sound

Twin power cars in Departmental-Non-Sound

Twin power cars in Departmental-Sound

 

Plus 7 coaches with all the bells and whistles,

 

What might of started as a model of the preserved HSDT loco has turned into a runaway train, seeing a list like that would overwhelm anybody, Only the APT-E is the only "loco" released by Rapido, The Stirling's had issues as well as two variants being cancelled so to tackle this you can understand why she's been put on the back burner.

[Roy Langridge]

Hmm. I guess it depends on how much profit you want to make.

 

If they work out the costs based on todays value, work out how many people are likely to make a pre-order, then that should give an indication on how much to charge. Use that for the Kickstarter, which will likely get more orders anyway, and then up the price by 10% for after Kickstarter.

 

If production was limited to 1000, then the math is even easier to work out.

 

The pound rate won't change significantly over the next few months, and while small increases or decreases will happen, calculating the rates to a lower pound value could mitigate this. But because there's no indication of cost, then it all hinges on the "sensible price" variable.

 

For the power cars, charge anywhere from £150-£200 or £250 - £300 range for DCC ready - that's £250,000 at the lower end. I'm sure the Kickstarter could start at the £250 and head up. With a limited run, people would buy.

There are some wild assumptions in there, the biggest of which relates to exchange rates. You forget that we are not just talking about GBP here, but USD, CAD, CNY...

 

Fluctuations amongst that lot are much harder to predict. Brexit and Trump effects are not fully known yet, and China has issues to resolve. This could break companies if they get it wrong.

 

Roy

[delticfan]

Wild idea I know but set the price to include a contingency for rate increases etc. See if people are still interested then if the cost turns out to be less then reset the price to the lower level. Acknowledged it could always go even higher but I can't think of another way. How much would YOU be prepared to pay for these models?

[Roy Langridge]

Wild idea I know but set the price to include a contingency for rate increases etc. See if people are still interested then if the cost turns out to be less then reset the price to the lower level. Acknowledged it could always go even higher but I can't think of another way. How much would YOU be prepared to pay for these models?

That is exactly what I would have hoped is being done today. Any company should be trying to set the price of its goods based upon the expected costs at the time of sale. Where I fear the problem comes is that the various manufacturers have been scared to move first - hopefully a situation that is being resolved.

 

Roy

[adb968008]

Many countries in the world trade in dollars, as their own currency is unstable.

Maybe it's time to recognise the £ is in that same basket.

 

Why not set the selling price in the same currency as that of the manufacturer,(one of RMB\HKD/USD I assume) I'm not too proud to pay in €$¥ or peanuts if it gets what I want. The risk is my own that way.. pay now or pay later, but take a deposit that covers development up front.

 

Put it another way, if you were buying a foreign outline model, from an overseas retailer your doing the same thing already.

Edited February 10, 2017 by adb968008

[Colin_McLeod]

If the only difficulty is predicting future exchange rates then why not crowd fund up front in the relevant currency?