Dapol deferments - Class 50, Class 59, prototype HST, Battle of Britain - due to Brexit increasing tooling and production costs

[Butler Henderson]

My source is Hattons themselves. I was curious about it as some people claim to received multiple duds from Dapol while others have all good runners (for reference, I have only had one Dapol loco fail during running-in). I asked Hattons directly since a single customer is not really a representative sample.

 

Dapol tend to have issues with overheating motors and poor soldering. Farish tend to fail on split gears and jammed valve gear (on the tender driven steamers).

Faults can vary from shop to shop. Models come of the production line, get boxed then put together in a box of so many so all those off the production line at one particular time end up at shop x and are all perfect whereas shop y gets the Friday afternoon production fall of poor assembly and décor errors. I had experience of this way back when Triang-Hornby released their 9F. None in one shop worked, whereas another shop had no problems with them

[bigP]

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[Greenmodelmonkey]

There's a cost implication in addressing any 'root causes' and there lays a dilemma. So not quite that simple.

G.

Agree when containment action is required to prevent further quality escapes but not in the long term if you focus on getting it right first time.

[jaym481]

Just responding to Grahame's post if you read what he said... Using root cause analysis can have many positive outcomes including cost reduction. So I was trying to answer his question. Hope this clarifies why I responded in the way i did.

 

 

I just re-read what he said, and your short response. It still doesn't address your implication that they are ignoring the root cause(s). Their announcement certainly doesn't appear to be based on them ignoring anything.

[Greenmodelmonkey]

I just re-read what he said, and your short response. It still doesn't address your implication that they are ignoring the root cause(s). Their announcement certainly doesn't appear to be based on them ignoring anything.

So perhaps they are now addressing root cause with announcement which is good news for the hobby as a whole.

[The Stationmaster]

Talking to one of their people on the stand at Ally Pally the situation with N gauge seems pretty straightforward - N gauge models cost the same as 00 gauge models to develop and have very similar production costs but the market is much smaller (i.e. volume of sales will be less) therefore it does not produce such a good overall return.   Therefore it's better to concentrate where the return is better.

[d9002]

Talking to one of their people on the stand at Ally Pally the situation with N gauge seems pretty straightforward - N gauge models cost the same as 00 gauge models to develop and have very similar production costs but the market is much smaller (i.e. volume of sales will be less) therefore it does not produce such a good overall return.   Therefore it's better to concentrate where the return is better.

Skies are looking darker by the day.....

[Chris Higgs]

Talking to one of their people on the stand at Ally Pally the situation with N gauge seems pretty straightforward - N gauge models cost the same as 00 gauge models to develop and have very similar production costs but the market is much smaller (i.e. volume of sales will be less) therefore it does not produce such a good overall return.   Therefore it's better to concentrate where the return is better.

 

Assuming you have to choose. If you have limited people and other resources such as cash to develop the products, then certainly concentrate on those that produce the best returns. But eventually you will run out of 4mm prototypes to make, or at least those left to do will become so obscure that they sell less than a mainstream N gauge one does. Unless it is the case that the market is driven by collectors who will buy one of each of something however niche it is.

 

If however you have enough wherewithall to develop all the products you want, then it only matters whether a product makes an acceptable return. A profit is a profit.

 

And is there really no saving to be made on developing an N gauge model you have already done in OO?

 

Chris

[Revolution Ben]

 

Hello all,

 

Chris makes some very good points about shared costs - this is probably why the Class 68, HIA hopper are still scheduled and, in time, hopefully the MJA box wagons will get the green light.

 

The other issue is one of growing the market.

 

It may be true that right now 00 is the larger market, and Dapol will see greater returns there. But it can be that developing a larger share of a smaller market is more lucrative than a smaller share of a larger market. Especially if that market grows as a result of your involvement.

 

Cheers

 

Ben A.

[Chris Higgs]

Hello all,

 

Chris makes some very good points about shared costs - this is probably why the Class 68, HIA hopper are still scheduled and, in time, hopefully the MJA box wagons will get the green light.

 

The other issue is one of growing the market.

 

It may be true that right now 00 is the larger market, and Dapol will see greater returns there. But it can be that developing a larger share of a smaller market is more lucrative than a smaller share of a larger market. Especially if that market grows as a result of your involvement.

 

Cheers

 

Ben A.

 

I was just thinking this. A larger N scale market in Continental models largely exists because of decision from the like of Fleischmann back in the 70s to develop and continue to develop quality models. Whilst Farish continued to churn out mis-shapen blocks of cast metal.

 

The irony is that it was Dapol that awoke them from that particular slumber.

 

I do feel there was also a phase of manufacturers engaging in a turf war by saying they were going to produce X and Y and Z... Pretty sure we would have had a Farish WC/BB rather than a Merchant Navy if Dapol had not jumped in first.

 

 

Chris

[34theletterbetweenB&D]

...The other issue is one of growing the market.

 

It may be true that right now 00 is the larger market, and Dapol will see greater returns there. But it can be that developing a larger share of a smaller market is more lucrative than a smaller share of a larger market. Especially if that market grows as a result of your involvement...

 And developing a share of a less price sensitive and thus more lucrative market, is better yet. I'd guess that Dapol have found that when it comes to choosing whether to invest in N or O, the latter is the one where the growth prospects are better.

 

While this opinion is probably about as welcome on the face of it as a turd in a punchbowl to those whose interest is in N gauge;  what may well turn out to be a scaling back from one of the current N manufacturers, will - if true - reduce the barrier to entry for potential competitors. So not necessarily bad news.

[TomE]

 And developing a share of a less price sensitive and thus more lucrative market, is better yet. I'd guess that Dapol have found that when it comes to choosing whether to invest in N or O, the latter is the one where the growth prospects are better.

 

 

More lucrative, but for how long? Dapol (and Heljan) are reaping the rewards right now in O Gauge because that market has been a starved for decades as far as RTR is concerned, but there will eventually come a point where that demand has been satisfied and I suspect it will arrive in O much sooner than it will in N. Dapol could be cutting off their nose to spite their face in order to make a quick buck. 

 

Tom. 

[woodenhead]

If it does allow others to enter the fray now I can think of one company with some rather nice steam engines that were probably put off because Dapol were stamping their name on lots of models they had in OO so it would have been a battle for the space (pun intended) but now perhaps the door is wide open.

 

Of course they have had their own woes of late so perhaps they themselves are not ready to enter the fray either.

[d9002]

Quite obviously, as an N Gauger, the news of all these deferments came as a huge disappointment - and clearly I am far from alone in this regard !

I DO wonder if perhaps Dapol's "eyes were bigger than their belly" by apparrently embarking on so many N gauge projects - or was this indeed an attempt to a "turf war", who can say.

 

If indeed they are to continue in N gauge then I hope that perhaps they can salvage some credibility by (say) resurrecting one of the currently shelved projects later in the year.

Which one to resurrect, of course, would be the real conundrum !

As a 1980's modeller, my prefernce would be for the Class 50 ....but I shall now stick my head down below the parapet again !

 

Fingers crossed that we will see a revival of interest from the chaps at Chirk in the small scale stuff.....

 

 

[johnlambert]

A couple of years back I asked Dave Jones for his view on the general state of the model railway market; whether it was growing, shrinking or holding steady.  His response is on the 'Ask Dave' thread (and I hope it is ok for me to paraphrase it here) was that the OO market was holding steady, N gauge was growing but not that quickly and there was a good deal of potential in the RtR O gauge market.

 

Given the comments here and Dapol's observed behaviour it does seem that Dapol's current strategy is to tap the potential of the O gauge market.  Hopefully the big profit items will ensure Dapol's future and put a bit of money in the bank to revisit the N gauge projects.

[JSpencer]

I suppose it is fairly simple.

 

Dapol moved to N when there was just Farish (and one Kato Eurostar, a few minitrix and some Peco wagons), the vast bulk being obsolete items - certainly only the Kato could be called modern!

 

They took N gauge to new standards. Bachmann brought Farish, and came to the market big time with more resources.

At this point the market was in expansion.

 

Prices have now shot through the roof, there are additional players and Farish are not giving ground.

The crux is Dapol cannot release 4 entire new locos, the market won,t absorb it. So slowly but surely is the way to go.

 

O gauge has none of the big players jumping in right now. Sure Heljan have been doing some big locos, but most people in O gauge are calling for something smaller, and here Dapol has found a worthwhile niche.

Again no need for vast programs, just one model say a year.

 

At the moment we have many players jumping in yet prices are increasing that I doubt the market can expand and most likely is receding.

We were told for many years that less than 500 of a model was not economical now we see runs of 200 being a norm!

 

Where is the market going? Well it seems that giants still sell (Merchant navies, and the Ivatt Duchess are shifting in OO gauge), and small engines sell (Peckett, USA tank) but anything in between seems to end up in bargain basement.

 

On that thought Dapols next move could be an all new terrier in OO!

[Dunsignalling]

If it does allow others to enter the fray now I can think of one company with some rather nice steam engines that were probably put off because Dapol were stamping their name on lots of models they had in OO so it would have been a battle for the space (pun intended) but now perhaps the door is wide open.

 

Of course they have had their own woes of late so perhaps they themselves are not ready to enter the fray either.

I think the company to which you allude is (wisely IMHO) more interested in consolidating their much improved position and recovered reputation in their core sector than diversifying (beyond the odd toe-in-the-water under a non-de-plume) into unfamiliar new territory. 

 

That disinclination can only be reinforced by an established N Gauge player (that presumably knows the market better than any newcomer) significantly reducing its exposure.

 

John

[Dunsignalling]

I suppose it is fairly simple.

 

Dapol moved to N when there was just Farish (and one Kato Eurostar, a few minitrix and some Peco wagons), the vast bulk being obsolete items - certainly only the Kato could be called modern!

 

They took N gauge to new standards. Bachmann brought Farish, and came to the market big time with more resources.

At this point the market was in expansion.

 

Prices have now shot through the roof, there are additional players and Farish are not giving ground.

The crux is Dapol cannot release 4 entire new locos, the market won,t absorb it. So slowly but surely is the way to go.

 

O gauge has none of the big players jumping in right now. Sure Heljan have been doing some big locos, but most people in O gauge are calling for something smaller, and here Dapol has found a worthwhile niche.

Again no need for vast programs, just one model say a year.

 

At the moment we have many players jumping in yet prices are increasing that I doubt the market can expand and most likely is receding.

We were told for many years that less than 500 of a model was not economical now we see runs of 200 being a norm!

 

Where is the market going? Well it seems that giants still sell (Merchant navies, and the Ivatt Duchess are shifting in OO gauge), and small engines sell (Peckett, USA tank) but anything in between seems to end up in bargain basement.OO9

 

On that thought Dapols next move could be an all new terrier in OO!

My slightly left-field thought is that, if the Heljan Manning Wardles and Bachmann Baldwins in OO9 prove popular; r-t-r 7mm N/g might provide an interesting opening. 

 

John

[dpgibbons]

Dapol have certainly expanded the O Gauge market by breaking the GBP200 barrier for locos and it is certainly easier to see the value in a GBP200 O Gauge Gronk than its N Gauge equivalent at half the price, especially when previous O Gauge versions cost two or three times that.

 

But space and budget constraints don't change and most new O Gaugers are going to be building micro layouts, so I wonder if Dapol is going to see demand beyond small engines, wagons and B Sets.

[frobisher]

I suppose it is fairly simple.

 

Dapol moved to N when there was just Farish (and one Kato Eurostar, a few minitrix and some Peco wagons), the vast bulk being obsolete items - certainly only the Kato could be called modern!

 

They took N gauge to new standards. Bachmann brought Farish, and came to the market big time with more resources.

At this point the market was in expansion.

Your timeline is incorrect. Bachmann bought Farish well before Dapol hit the N gauge market. Bachmann had begun modernisation of the range, but there did seem to be an added incentive of the increased competition of Dapol to spur things on.

[LBRJ]

I know this thread goes on and on, but to me its quite simple.

Dapol are having a tactical retreat from N to concentrate on the more profitable O gauge mini boom,  that they really helped to fuel with the fantastic 08.

 

It is hardly rocket science ( is that actually hard?) to see they would follow up the 08 with other BR stuff to match in.

 

I assume that they may come back to N at sometime later, but make hay while the sun shines  

[Chris Higgs]

I think the company to which you allude is (wisely IMHO) more interested in consolidating their much improved position and recovered reputation in their core sector than diversifying (beyond the odd toe-in-the-water under a non-de-plume) into unfamiliar new territory. 

 

That disinclination can only be reinforced by an established N Gauge player (that presumably knows the market better than any newcomer) significantly reducing its exposure.

 

John

 

I think that the real expertise that Dapol had in N left them a short while ago. I suspect that the new team are really not as interested as the previous incumbent was.

 

Chris

[Chris Higgs]

More lucrative, but for how long? Dapol (and Heljan) are reaping the rewards right now in O Gauge because that market has been a starved for decades as far as RTR is concerned, but there will eventually come a point where that demand has been satisfied and I suspect it will arrive in O much sooner than it will in N. Dapol could be cutting off their nose to spite their face in order to make a quick buck. 

 

Tom. 

 

Quality kit manufacturers have long known that O Gauge is where the people who have the money to pay a good price are found. Although he began with 4mm, Martin Finney once said it was 7mm models that had allowed him to make a living out of model railways. Ditto those who build models professionally - there is a far bigger margin in building something that can then sell for a grand or more.

 

I don't know where O gauge modellers find the space to run their stuff. Perhaps they don't - those Heljan diesels do look might fine just sat in a display case!

 

Chris

[Dunsignalling]

Dapol have certainly expanded the O Gauge market by breaking the GBP200 barrier for locos and it is certainly easier to see the value in a GBP200 O Gauge Gronk than its N Gauge equivalent at half the price, especially when previous O Gauge versions cost two or three times that.

 

But space and budget constraints don't change and most new O Gaugers are going to be building micro layouts, so I wonder if Dapol is going to see demand beyond small engines, wagons and B Sets.

It also has to be borne in mind that N is often adopted by people who want to run scale length main line trains in the space they have available.

 

That requires lots of wagons or coaches, and the overall expenditure per train is often substantial. This is one cause of the N gauge price conundrum; stock costs almost the same price as its OO counterparts, but many buyers want/need two or three times as much.

 

A small r-t-r O gauge loco and a couple of coaches or half-a-dozen wagons will, in many cases, cost less than a typical N gauge train occupying the same length and little more than one in OO. 

 

A modest-sized O gauge layout (say 10' x 2'6") also requires many fewer points than a complex N gauge one in the same space *; another cost saving. 

 

On a N gauge layout of my suggested size, most of ones locos will remain "on shed" most of the time. A small O Gauge layout will only accommodate a couple of locos at a time but that won't stop anybody amassing more and regularly swapping them around - different scale, different way of doing things.

 

I'm guessing that Dapol won't risk anything big in O for the foreseeable future; they have identified their niche and I'd be very surprised if they go beyond a 0-6-0 tender loco.

 

John

 

* One of my friends has a N gauge layout slightly longer than this.

[jjb1970]

The elephant in the room here is how much choice Dapol have in this. Dapol may very well still want to pursue an active program in N gauge but as we have seen with Hornby over the last year, new product programs must be viable in terms of the company’s resources and financial position. Hornby OO trains have escaped quite lightly but their HO international brands are treading water this year with modest programs and Airfix don’t seem to be planning much either. We’ve even seen Bachmann go through a period of consolidation to get their plans in order although in their case it was more a lack of capacity to deliver all their announced models than constrained finances from what I can see. At the risk of being the voice of doom here, I suspect Dapol are trying to make the best of the resources available to them.