Dapol deferments - Class 50, Class 59, prototype HST, Battle of Britain - due to Brexit increasing tooling and production costs

[woodenhead]

The writing is on the wall and I think before long we are going to see other manufacturers announcing cancellations like this and the Hattons 'King' in 4mm scale.

 

The Hattons/DJM King decision was more around a cheaper duplicate product against which their higher spec but higher price model couldn't compete whilst Hornby models were at bargain prices.

[The Stationmaster]

So the bubble is bursting, warnings that this would happen were made about 2-3 years ago with the price hikes from Bachmann and the various marketing strategys of Hornby. Cost of manufacturing is going up regardless of Brexit and the fall of the pound, with the cost of shipping a container from China doubling in the last couple of years. This is happening all around the world, things have slowed down in the Model Railway world in the USA and that is a much bigger market than the UK. I have seen it written on this site where modelers have stated they wanted three or more of various new models only to change their mind and ending up with one or not buying any as they realise the cost was going to hit the wallet, this does not help the manufacturer.

 

Dapol has found a untapped market in 'O' scale, it is a niche market with not many rival companies to compete with in RTR. I would not be surprised if Dapol will start to drop certain scales and concentrate on this market if it brings in the profits. The 'O' scale modeler is used to paying the higher prices and these models of Dapol are cheap to them and is attracting modelers of the smaller scales to move up, I have a friend who has worked in 'N' scale for a very long time and he has just started modeling in 'O' scale thanks to the various RTR models becoming available.

 

The writing is on the wall and I think before long we are going to see other manufacturers announcing cancellations like this and the Hattons 'King' in 4mm scale.

 

Loconuts

 

I think perhaps might be more telling would be what has been sitting unsold in Dapol's warehouse and what has appeared on their stand at fire sale prices at various exhibitions over the past couple of years as that could tell a story more immediately relevant story to their situation rather than just them being a part of the overall model railway manufacturing scene. 

 

Different decisions are made by different manufacturers and commissioners for a wide range of reasons and not all are necessarily linked to Brexit or the falling £ or the rising cost of Chinese manufacture as there can be plenty of other reasons such as over-ordering, contracting market areas, expanding market areas, cash flow, maybe even upcoming Business Rate increases, or changes in senior management altering the emphasis and business model of a company.

[woodenhead]

Their sales stand at Warley always had the look of an N gauge fire sale to me, I've had some nice items off them but it did look like they always had more stock than the shops wanted.

[rembrow]

While most of the 'new' 'oo' gauge items shown as 'new' in the last catalogue, have got to tooling stage, and should be progressing, as the main cost of development has already taken place, the Dapol notice, while highlighting specific models for deferment that were clearly 'n' gauge, did say there were 'others' in addition to the named items. This could affect some 'oo' gauge items that have not yet progressed to tooling, which from my check of the 2014/15 catalogue are the Turbot wagon and Class 21/29 diesel. The Turbot wagon has been in redesign for at least 3 years and the 21/29 had a long delayed design period due to the lack of available drawings. In January this year, Joel Bright advised on the Dapol Digest, in relation to the 21/29 development, that the final CAD drawings were expected in mid January and the model would then go immediately to tooling, however there has not been an update since then. I would be concerned about the 21/29 being deferred, as its had to take a back seat so many times as other 'oo' projects went ahead of it, however the 'oo' projects still going ahead for this year are significant in both number and cost of design terms. I'd be very disappointed to see the 21/29 deferred again, but can understand that a contribution to cost savings may need to come from the 'oo' range

[micklner]

I think perhaps might be more telling would be what has been sitting unsold in Dapol's warehouse and what has appeared on their stand at fire sale prices at various exhibitions over the past couple of years as that could tell a story more immediately relevant story to their situation rather than just them being a part of the overall model railway manufacturing scene. 

 

Different decisions are made by different manufacturers and commissioners for a wide range of reasons and not all are necessarily linked to Brexit or the falling £ or the rising cost of Chinese manufacture as there can be plenty of other reasons such as over-ordering, contracting market areas, expanding market areas, cash flow, maybe even upcoming Business Rate increases, or changes in senior management altering the emphasis and business model of a company.

 

I totally agree, my example perhaps as of many others ?, how many Dapol items have I ever bought or even considered to buy ? answer zero.

 

Ok,  I model 4mm Steam and LNER so a limited field. The only items I could even possibly  consider are the ex Airfix range 30 + years old? and of no interest to me at all. At this point people probably think, what about their latest Gresley  A4 thats in 4mm , sadly for me overpriced , poor value compared to the much better looking current Hornby version and to me personally a over use of DCC gimmicks.  I have no idea how many they have sold , but if they aren't selling it could represent a huge blow to a little company finances.

 

The 4mm market is saturated with A4's and there must have been another Loco type  they could have modelled to launch under the new Black Label banner .

 

Dapol are a very small player in 4mm and now in7mm as well, compared to other companies, and seem to be unable to decide what scale they actually want to sell. They appear to be overstretching themselves and need to decide which scale/range to sell in the future asap .

[The Ghost of IKB]

Well the solution to all this is really rather simple. We are getting used to crowd funding new models, the next development is simply an extension of that - crowd Building! Your nice friendly manufacturer takes a nice big deposit (say 99%) to fund research and development then, once moulding starts, you and your offspring present yourself at the assembly point and 'volunteer' your services, say no more than 4 or 5 weeks of 14 hour days, 6 days a week. After you've managed to assemble, paint and pack 502 models you'll be presented with the model of your choice and a certificate thanking you for your services to model railways. (After you pay the balance of course) Surely this is the way Forward?

[jjb1970]

Different decisions are made by different manufacturers and commissioners for a wide range of reasons and not all are necessarily linked to Brexit or the falling £ or the rising cost of Chinese manufacture as there can be plenty of other reasons such as over-ordering, contracting market areas, expanding market areas, cash flow, maybe even upcoming Business Rate increases, or changes in senior management altering the emphasis and business model of a company.

 

Well put. These things are complex and we should be careful of extrapolating from circumstances affecting a single company to draw generalisations about the industry. There are many factors at work, not all of which are related to the value of sterling, costs of Chinese labour or the other factors mentioned. One of which can be reduced to just how well a company is managing itself and how efficient is it at making stuff, too often this argument seems to be based on an assumption that there is some sort of fixed cost base and standardised cost of manufacture which is index linked to Chinese wages and which ignores the fact that there are actually very few fixed costs in a well run business.

[TheSignalEngineer]

................... my example perhaps as of many others ?, how many Dapol items have I ever bought or even considered to buy ? answer zero.

.

Probably a common experience.

 

My two areas of modelling are based on Black Country BR steam and West Country WR/SR c1959/60. My stock of about 50 locos is 0% Dapol, although I will get the B4 if it ever gets made, at least one turned up in Sunshine livery in Black Country industrial use. About 300 items of rolling stock are 7% Dapol-made, but even then most of these were from ex-Airfix tooling which has since been sold on or commissions. Only four are currently available Dapol items. 

[adb968008]

Well the solution to all this is really rather simple. We are getting used to crowd funding new models, the next development is simply an extension of that - crowd Building! Your nice friendly manufacturer takes a nice big deposit (say 99%) to fund research and development then, once moulding starts, you and your offspring present yourself at the assembly point and 'volunteer' your services, say no more than 4 or 5 weeks of 14 hour days, 6 days a week. After you've managed to assemble, paint and pack 502 models you'll be presented with the model of your choice and a certificate thanking you for your services to model railways. (After you pay the balance of course) Surely this is the way Forward?

I'll volunteer for QA testing,

 

I'm a hard marker too, no one gets 100% in my class.

[Legend]

Well put. These things are complex and we should be careful of extrapolating from circumstances affecting a single company to draw generalisations about the industry. There are many factors at work, not all of which are related to the value of sterling, costs of Chinese labour or the other factors mentioned. One of which can be reduced to just how well a company is managing itself and how efficient is it at making stuff, too often this argument seems to be based on an assumption that there is some sort of fixed cost base and standardised cost of manufacture which is index linked to Chinese wages and which ignores the fact that there are actually very few fixed costs in a well run business.

Very well put. When TTS Kings are getting sold to trade at £49.50 ( reference Dave of DJM before Graham interjects by saying it's only an opinion and not fact) it is clear that labour represents a small proportion of the final selling price to you and me. I'd just add to the mix above is whether the company sources models from third party factories or their own in house manufacturing facility.

[Ravenser]

While most of the 'new' 'oo' gauge items shown as 'new' in the last catalogue, have got to tooling stage, and should be progressing, as the main cost of development has already taken place, the Dapol notice, while highlighting specific models for deferment that were clearly 'n' gauge, did say there were 'others' in addition to the named items. This could affect some 'oo' gauge items that have not yet progressed to tooling, which from my check of the 2014/15 catalogue are the Turbot wagon and Class 21/29 diesel. The Turbot wagon has been in redesign for at least 3 years and the 21/29 had a long delayed design period due to the lack of available drawings. In January this year, Joel Bright advised on the Dapol Digest, in relation to the 21/29 development, that the final CAD drawings were expected in mid January and the model would then go immediately to tooling, however there has not been an update since then. I would be concerned about the 21/29 being deferred, as its had to take a back seat so many times as other 'oo' projects went ahead of it, however the 'oo' projects still going ahead for this year are significant in both number and cost of design terms. I'd be very disappointed to see the 21/29 deferred again, but can understand that a contribution to cost savings may need to come from the 'oo' range

 

I would assume the Dapol class 21/29 is now dead, like the prototype . Fairly specialist, known to be problematic in terms of available info, badly delayed and not in CAD

 

Yours

 

The Croaking Raven of Doom

[rembrow]

I would assume the Dapol class 21/29 is now dead, like the prototype . Fairly specialist, known to be problematic in terms of available info, badly delayed and not in CAD

 

Yours

 

The Croaking Raven of Doom

 

The CADs were nearing completion, and the first CAD drawings were shown in September 2016 on the Dapol Digest, with the final versions expected in January 2017, so they have progressed the development to the verge of tooling, which gives me hope that if this project is deferred, it can be quickly restarted when funds allow. As you say the prototypes were unsuccessful, but they have a good enthusiast following, having served on the Eastern Region at delivery and then a mainstay of Scottish regional loco hauled stock. North British locos do have a fond following, but have been difficult to model due to the a) lack of preserved prototypes and b) drawings that are limited and not in a single historical location. The delay with this model mirrors the similar delay with the North British D600 Warship prototype diesels being manufactured for Kernow and for me it was fascinating to see that both projects finally got to  the verge of tooling in January this year.

I for one would be willing to crowdfund this model if it meant it could be maintained, I've already done the same for the D600. I do go weak at the knees about prototype/failed diesel types - everyone to their own.

[Dunsignalling]

Very well put. When TTS Kings are getting sold to trade at £49.50 ( reference Dave of DJM before Graham interjects by saying it's only an opinion and not fact) it is clear that labour represents a small proportion of the final selling price to you and me. I'd just add to the mix above is whether the company sources models from third party factories or their own in house manufacturing facility.

That presupposes that the supply of TTS Kings wasn't so out of step with demand that £49.50 was the alternative to landfill.

[34theletterbetweenB&D]

I would assume the Dapol class 21/29 is now dead, like the prototype...

 With every delay to this model I have slowly advanced on improving my modified Hornby body on Bachmann 25 running gear. Perhaps 2017 will see it get spoked wheels? I should have liked a class 21 with the better rendered cab glazing as seen on the Dapol class 22, but what is not to be,  is not to be.

[No Decorum]

I do go weak at the knees about prototype/failed diesel types - everyone to their own.

You’re not the only one. Heljan led the way with Falcon and created my wobbly legs. There followed a feast which sadly seems to have come to an end. Years ago I wondered if Heljan was going to make a start on gas turbines or third-rail electrics or go for a few one offs such as 10800 or the Fell. Sadly, the Vikings seem to have developed an interest in 0 scale instead.

 

(I know it’s an extreme view but I incline to the view that all the early diesels were failed diesels or, more reasonably, that there was something wrong with all of them. The worst were, of course, hopelessly unreliable; some required expensive remedial work; some were too heavy for the power they produced; some were just not fast or powerful enough and some were built for traffic which was disappearing onto the roads. It doesn’t stop me loving the models.)

[Paul.Uni]

Further updates from the development webpages:

 

N gauge:

• HIA Hopper - Going into tooling May 2017
• MJA Hopper - On hold until HIA comes to market

OO gauge:

• GWR Diesel Railcar - In Production April / May 2017
• Class 21 & 29 - Going into tooling April 2017

[Downer]

 

Further updates from the development webpages:

 

 

• Class 21 & 29 - Going into tooling April 2017

 

 

 

This is a tad precipitate.

[rembrow]

 

Further updates from the development webpages:

 

N gauge:

• HIA Hopper - Going into tooling May 2017
• MJA Hopper - On hold until HIA comes to market

OO gauge:

• GWR Diesel Railcar - In Production April / May 2017
• Class 21 & 29 - Going into tooling April 2017

 

 

Thanks, that is very good news. With a fair wind we might have 2 of the North British diesels produced by the end of the year, with Kernow's D600 Warships also now in tooling. The GWR diesel railcar is interesting, as the last update from Dapol was that the second set of deco samples needed adjustment, if they stick to the original production of the Class 121 railcar, which was estimated 3 months after the Class 122 (the Class 122 is scheduled for April release, so in production in Feb?), then both could be in production at the same time, so looks like a year for diesel railcars as well.

[7013]

Feel a bit sad at the news of cancellations, I am guessing that there is more in this statement than meets the eye. With the constant updates it looks as if Dapol are going through what they can realistically afford to make and what is too risky.

Brexit is a fact of life and unless companies can adapt they will sink, but I suspect Dapols troubles were around before Brexit, but that tipped the balance and they are now frantically bailing to stay afloat. The Class 68 looks a superb model so it is not as if they cannot produce decent models. My Cl 22s run well and have been fault free.

I expect there will be more updates on the website and slowly a clearer picture will appear, I do hope they continue with the Cl 59 in OO, I know Dapol got the 'rights' before Dave Jones and he had to give up the project. It would be a shame now if Dapol could not go ahead with it. Still the Hornby 59 is not the worst model in the world and all that money saved could be spent tarting it up.

[Tricky-CRS]

Nativity, obscure class 21/29 going ahead in OO but the major class 50 in N delayed into neverland. Dapol really losing the plot with this choice or N Gauge in serious trouble.

[Roy Langridge]

Nativity, obscure class 21/29 going ahead in OO but the major class 50 in N delayed into neverland. Dapol really losing the plot with this choice or N Gauge in serious trouble.

I am sure Dapol knows what makes money, and what does not. I doubt they are losing the plot.

 

Roy

[Kris]

Nativity, obscure class 21/29 going ahead in OO but the major class 50 in N delayed into neverland. Dapol really losing the plot with this choice or N Gauge in serious trouble.

 

I think Dapol are signalling that they have no interest in `n gauge. the model that were very close to production are still going to build but after that I doubt that we will see any more models from Dapol in n gauge.

[woodenhead]

I think Dapol like to see themselves as disruptive or innovators - they upped the game in N gauge with the 14xx and Prairies, working signals, NEM knuckle couplings and now see themselves doing the same in O I think.

 

It's a pity QC let them down - wrong scale wheels on the early releases, dodgy electrics on later diesels, wrong instructions on the signals leading to burnouts, not delivering on promises - look at all the hoo ha on OHLE/Pendolinos/92s and what did they deliver in the end.

 

OO interestingly is still full of older generic wagons with some newer stuff, the locomotives are nice but not innovative - nothing to innovate or disrupt against in OO.

[JSpencer]

The market is heading ever increasing to smaller more economic (I.e more expensive) runs.

 

No news on the OO class 59 at this time. Look forwards to my pair of B4s.

[rembrow]

Feel a bit sad at the news of cancellations, I am guessing that there is more in this statement than meets the eye. With the constant updates it looks as if Dapol are going through what they can realistically afford to make and what is too risky.

Brexit is a fact of life and unless companies can adapt they will sink, but I suspect Dapols troubles were around before Brexit, but that tipped the balance and they are now frantically bailing to stay afloat. The Class 68 looks a superb model so it is not as if they cannot produce decent models. My Cl 22s run well and have been fault free.

I expect there will be more updates on the website and slowly a clearer picture will appear, I do hope they continue with the Cl 59 in OO, I know Dapol got the 'rights' before Dave Jones and he had to give up the project. It would be a shame now if Dapol could not go ahead with it. Still the Hornby 59 is not the worst model in the world and all that money saved could be spent tarting it up.

 

With the decision to go ahead with the B4 and Class 21/29 in 'oo' gauge, with potential production this year, which are both projects yet to be tooled, I would say that the Cl 59 in 'oo' gauge is safe as the project got to tooling and first ep stage some time ago, it could be close to livery samples by now, so I believe that model is safe. I am surprised that the company is going ahead with so many of its back catalogue 'oo' projects in a very narrow time window. That must have put strain on finances when you count up the number of 'oo' gauge models that have or are soon to be tooled in the last 12 months. They are still a small company, after all is said, still owned by the Boyle family. That structure may create the apparent boom and bust cycle. Have they decided to concentrate on completing their 'oo' gauge back catalogue, which may deliver more volume sales and income.

 

Woodenhead mentions their level of 'generic' wagons, however I don't agree, they have gradually expanded the wagon range, mainly with modern image types produced in China, which must now outnumber the old Hornby Dublo derived wagons. They also have at least 4 wagons designed and manufactured by Dapol in the UK that are not ex HD- milk tanker, grampus, rectangular tar wagon, GWR van etc. Those and the ex HD wagons and some ex Airfix coaches has maintained production in the UK, as they are all manufactured in Chirk. I applaud them for trying to maintain UK manufacturing and an aim to return more production to the UK. There are few model railway manufacturers with that aim, only Oxford Diecast has a similar ambition.