Dapol deferments - Class 50, Class 59, prototype HST, Battle of Britain - due to Brexit increasing tooling and production costs

[jjb1970]

I'm sure that both Revolution and DJM would rather have avoided duplication of the N gauge class 92. However if both had already committed significant effort to development in mutual ignorance of eachothers efforts then it becomes a question of whether walking away will cost too much and whether the project will make money. Collusion is prohibited so the idea of some sort of steering committee to prevent duplication is a complete non-starter even if manufacturers wanted it. Duplication is an occupational hazard for model producers.

[frobisher]

Because we have two companies trying to make money in a niche market and neither seem to have the common sense to take a step back and think this is not necessary & at a time when when the so called big 3 have either cut back on their announcements or increased their prices.

Both companies had devoted time, money and/or effort developing the models to the point they had. Why should one or the other bin that development effort if they are happy with the sales commitments they have received? That makes no commercial, let alone common sense. It should of course be noted that both of these models are coming to market because of another manufacturer's cutting back...

[steve1023]

I understand that. But we have also been told the real costs aren't incurred until the tooling commences. The CADs were produced and shown for the class B tanker before the necessary number of orders were received, so a gamble was taken to pay for and produce these CADs without any guarantee of making any money. Not picking on Revolution - just using it as an example.

[Les1952]

I understand that. But we have also been told the real costs aren't incurred until the tooling commences. The CADs were produced and shown for the class B tanker before the necessary number of orders were received, so a gamble was taken to pay for and produce these CADs without any guarantee of making any money. Not picking on Revolution - just using it as an example.

 

CAD isn't cost free.  While it isn't the couple of hundred thousand that tooling costs, it is still an outlay of a few thousand.  DJM and Revolution are both small businesses.  Either business would be hurt if it abandoned a project for which CAD had already been done. To a small business "a few thousand" is a significant hit.   BOTH will have looked at the pledges for the Class 92 and decided they had enough to go on with the crowdfunding.  Remember that if a crowdfunded item is cancelled before any money is taken then the crowdfunder (DJM/Revolution) takes the hit.

 

To bring this back onto topic, the Class 50 has been seen in CAD.  The Class 143 has been seen in prototype.  These have had money spent on them.  That money can only be recouped if the model goes ahead- eventually.  Hence "in abeyance".  The J72 as far as I know had not reached the CAD stage, and cancellation whilst costing Dapol money, will have cost it less.

 

Les

[frobisher]

I understand that. But we have also been told the real costs aren't incurred until the tooling commences.

Is the first £5k or the tail end £95k more real to you though (numbers may or may not be in the right ballpark but are for illustrative purposes)? Do you bin that £5k knowing damn fine that you could cover it and the following £95k just because someone else is doing the same model? Do you effectively lose £5k and hand a good portion of the £100k to a rival because of "duplication"? If one or both parties had not been looking to crowd fund the models, the outcome may well be very different, but both are experienced crowd funders and enjoy the extra confidence that the method supplies.

[Kris]

Why do you say 'cancelled'? Did you read the statement? It said "some previously announced and mooted projects will have to be put on abeyance until the economic conditions become more favourable". That doesn't sound or read like cancelled to me, but rather indicates further delayed, put back or simply deferred.

 

G

 

I read the statement and I now do not believe that we will ever see many of the models originally promised. Having marked the BoB "in abeyance" so quickly whilst still leaving others hanging, leads me to believe that this is one of the least likely models to appear.

[bigP]

--

[Tricky-CRS]

There has been much discussion here about other factors which could also have led to Dapol's descision, all of whch have some validity and logic. It may be more helpful to view them as all being contributory factors, if so it's easy to see that Brexit may just have been the last straw rather than the sole fundamental factor. I'd not be too hasty to dismiss Brexit as a smokescreen particularly given the announcement by Rapido/NRM regarding the prototype HST. There have been items in the news media recently, I'm thinking of the motor industry in particular, where the uncertainty over the shape and terms of Brexit is driving a tentative attitude to forward planning; it's no surprise to see this reflected in our sphere of interest.

 

I used smoke screen because as an observer of Dapol over the last 10 years from fairly close quarters (friends past and present), I saw this coming about 3 years ago. So yes this has needed to be done now brexit  has happened, but what if the pound had not collapsed what excuses would we be getting instead. The writing has been on the wall for the class 50 and BoB for some time and the 59 was always on fine ice. The 142s made it by the skin of their teeth by the sounds of it, as has the 68, personally if it was my money I would have delayed the 68 and done the 50. Lets face it the 50 has way more sales potential and profit than the 68, but of course that was announced by the new team and the 50 by the old, obvious choice.

 

Well I can't believe I find myself in this situation having been accused of being a Dapol apologist in the recent past but got to play fair, sorry.

[Butler Henderson]

The 00 class 73 project was completed. They are now on their second run. Unless they are doing a 73/9 they wont be doing any development.

Unless its an admission that the "artwork" for the first batch of 73s left a bit to be desired.

[BR Blue]

It certainly did.

[Paul.Uni]

So far confirmed on the Dapol Development web-pages

 

Cancelled:

N gauge: LNER J72

 

In Abeyance:

N gauge: Battle of Britain & West Country, Class 50, Class 59

 

Going ahead:

N gauge: Class 68 (In tooling, awaiting 1st shots), Class 142 (Awaiting Deco Sample)

OO gauge: LSWR B4 (In tooling)

O gauge: Jinty (1st Shot received, awaiting EP)

[dpgibbons]

Also confirmed as going ahead - additional N Gauge Maunsell coaches 

[Les1952]

So far confirmed on the Dapol Development web-pages

 

Cancelled:

N gauge: LNER J72

 

In Abeyance:

N gauge: Battle of Britain & West Country, Class 50, Class 59

 

Going ahead:

N gauge: Class 68 (In tooling, awaiting 1st shots), Class 142 (Awaiting Deco Sample)

OO gauge: LSWR B4 (In tooling)

O gauge: Jinty (1st Shot received, awaiting EP)

 

New info going up very quickly then.  This list will be out of date by tea-time I suspect.  It also looks as if "in abeyance" might mean "tooling not started and waiting for enough in the kitty to start"

 

Les

[njee20]

I think Dapol are actually in a bit of an invidious position, there's obviously a bit of split between people saying "delayed obviously means cancelled" and people who think it may genuinely just be delayed. The fact they have cancelled some stuff outright suggests they may genuinely be reassessing in the future, but people have long memories, and their previous tactics on the 92 and Pendolino are still very much remembered.

They almost need to do a clarifying "we really do mean delayed, we have every intention of doing this again", but that could be a colossal PR flop if in 5 years they announce they're all being cancelled after all.

[Revolution Ben]

Ben - I genuinely mean't no offence when I said pathetic, but in fairness that is what I feel, maybe though madness would have been a better choice of word.

Hi Steve,

 

No problem - no offence taken. Always happy to engage with other forum members whether we agree or not!

 

Cheers

 

Ben A.

[34theletterbetweenB&D]

...They almost need to do a clarifying "we really do mean delayed, we have every intention of doing this again", but that could be a colossal PR flop if in 5 years they announce they're all being cancelled after all.

 No 'almost', Dapol need to make a complete statement on all their announced but not produced projects. The colossal PR flop has been ongoing for a good five years already in my perception, with endless leapfrogging of product announced for availability 2009/10 by later projects.

 

'Don't Actually Produce Our List'.

[Loconuts]

So the bubble is bursting, warnings that this would happen were made about 2-3 years ago with the price hikes from Bachmann and the various marketing strategys of Hornby. Cost of manufacturing is going up regardless of Brexit and the fall of the pound, with the cost of shipping a container from China doubling in the last couple of years. This is happening all around the world, things have slowed down in the Model Railway world in the USA and that is a much bigger market than the UK. I have seen it written on this site where modelers have stated they wanted three or more of various new models only to change their mind and ending up with one or not buying any as they realise the cost was going to hit the wallet, this does not help the manufacturer.

 

Dapol has found a untapped market in 'O' scale, it is a niche market with not many rival companies to compete with in RTR. I would not be surprised if Dapol will start to drop certain scales and concentrate on this market if it brings in the profits. The 'O' scale modeler is used to paying the higher prices and these models of Dapol are cheap to them and is attracting modelers of the smaller scales to move up, I have a friend who has worked in 'N' scale for a very long time and he has just started modeling in 'O' scale thanks to the various RTR models becoming available.

 

The writing is on the wall and I think before long we are going to see other manufacturers announcing cancellations like this and the Hattons 'King' in 4mm scale.

 

Loconuts

[Anthony566]

The Dapol 68's are my very first Dapol loco's and I am very happy with them both, I was looking at the 59 based on this so it is a shame they have parked this development but at least they are working on the next run of 68's 

[No Decorum]

Going ahead:

OO gauge: LSWR B4 (In tooling)

Phew!

[njee20]

 No 'almost', Dapol need to make a complete statement on all their announced but not produced projects. The colossal PR flop has been ongoing for a good five years already in my perception, with endless leapfrogging of product announced for availability 2009/10 by later projects.

 

'Don't Actually Produce Our List'.

I'm not sure it's as easy as that. I presume they're generally not sure at the moment. Maybe if Ben does manage to crowdfund a crystal ball Dapol can pick one up to ascertain what may happen to the industry and world financial markets in the next few years. They've made such an announcement - the 59/50/BoB are in abeyance, which is a dreadful word to use, but no matter. The trouble is they've pulled this trick before, so I'd be considering a clarifying statement. The trouble is, like I say, I'm not sure they're in a position to clarify anything.

[Steven B]

It's unfortunate that DJM and Revolution have both ended up producing the class 92. It's very unfortunate that they've both chosen the same running number when there are others to choose from.

 

What's completely bonkers (in a good sense?!?!) is that two different crowd funded models of the came loco class are going ahead whilst I major manufacturer can't see a profit in producing a model that has a longer running period, a wider operating area and a lot more liveries - i.e. the Dapol class 50.

 

Fingers crossed the 142 and 68 sell well enough to produce enough profits to turn some of the recently postponed models into an actual model.

 

Happy modelling.

 

Steven B.

[brushman47544]

If I was in Dapol's position of having to delay or cancel models, I would be looking carefully at what has been made in N gauge in the past when deciding. For me, the unknown quantity against producing a new version of the Class 50 when money is tight for Dapol is whether people who have the old Farish model will buy the new one, or decide not to upgrade for reasons such as price or accuracy of the model or the liveries produced. The Class 59 might be worth re-starting first, because I think I'm right that it only has to compete with the very expensive CJM version. The Class 68 is a "first timer" so doesn't face competition from an existing model and no doubt over the years will see more new liveries that could be produced.

[njee20]

But the 59 is a small class, with a large number of intra-class detail differences and comparatively little stock to run with them; admittedly we've got HOAs on the way, and there are the old JGAs that can be picked up, but the PGA is woefully out of date and out of production, no JHAs, JMA/HKAs, none of the box wagons etc.

 

To me the 50 would be a vastly more sensible option (speaking as someone who'd buy more 59s than 50s!).

[jonas]

I think Dapol would have to make quite a fist of the 50 for any owners of the Farish model to decide not to upgrade based on accuracy!

[Karhedron]

What's completely bonkers (in a good sense?!?!) is that two different crowd funded models of the came loco class are going ahead whilst I major manufacturer can't see a profit in producing a model that has a longer running period, a wider operating area and a lot more liveries - i.e. the Dapol class 50.

Crowdfunding is a slightly different kettle of fish to a regular RTR release. The customers commit up front which reduces the risk to the manufacturer of not getting a return on their investment. Tooling requires a good deal of cash up-front (I believe a loco now costs around £100K to tool) and then there are the manufacturing costs. This means that a company has to spend over £200K, probably over more than a year before they start to see any money coming in and longer before they break even. I have no knowledge of Dapol's finances but they are a much smaller company than Bachmann and it is possible they simply don't have the cash reserves to have so many items in tooling at once.

 

The Class 50 and Light Pacifics both seem like they would be good sellers at face value. But if proceeding with both requires the better part of half a million, it all comes down to whether there is money in the bank. We know Dapol have several items that are coming out (new Maunsell coaches, Class 68, Pacer) and possibly items in other scales too. This means they probably have significant amounts of capital tied up in toolings that have not yet yielded any return. I don't blame Dapol for slowing down rather than "betting the farm" and carrying on regardless.