Graham Farish 2018 - the full announcements

[Karhedron]

Also when prices go up, a percentage of hobbyists might leave but my hunch is that percentage is only small and is probably balanced by a lucky (or wealthy) minority who simply shrug and absorb the price increases. The majority of us probably fall into a "squeezed middle" whereby we have a certain hobby budget and that is what we tend to spend. If prices go up, the number of purchases comes down but the overall spend remains the same.

 

I don't know what the solution is, there may not even be a single solution. I will just count myself lucky I was able to pick up Dapol Colletts for £9 a pop when I started as these form the backdone of my GWR/WR services with a few Farish Hawksworths and kit-built catering vehicles and full-brakes scattered around.

[Roy L S]

I think you are right Matt, the price increases obviously do impact a finite budget which to a greater or lesser extent everybody has.

 

I but very little on impulse now and even then only if it is something that fits my modelling preferences, hence no 64xx or Castle lovely models though they undoubtedly are.

 

N gauge was always expensive - just look at the cost of a Minitrix Brit or Peco Jubilee in the 70s. What has happened is that we have become spoiled by unsustainably cheap prices during recent times.

 

Looking on the plus side, Bachmann are looking to add value in some models, and a 31 with Next 18 interface and speaker pre-fitted for an RRP of £130 in my opinion is not at all unreasonable, especially when that discounts down to around £110. 

 

​Roy

[Seanem44]

I think you are right Matt, the price increases obviously do impact a finite budget which to a greater or lesser extent everybody has.

 

I but very little on impulse now and even then only if it is something that fits my modelling preferences, hence no 64xx or Castle lovely models though they undoubtedly are.

 

N gauge was always expensive - just look at the cost of a Minitrix Brit or Peco Jubilee in the 70s. What has happened is that we have become spoiled by unsustainably cheap prices during recent times.

 

Looking on the plus side, Bachmann are looking to add value in some models, and a 31 with Next 18 interface and speaker pre-fitted for an RRP of £130 in my opinion is not at all unreasonable, especially when that discounts down to around £110. 

 

​Roy

It's N and OO.  Really its making double think my expenditures.  I am by no means poor.  Wife and myself both work, have good jobs.  I could afford and absorb, but with other competing hobbies, its a matter of I just don't want to absorb.  Prices have outpaced inflation and we are fast approaching ridiculousness.  Whether its rising prices in China or what... I don't completely buy it. 

 

Personally, I partly suspect this is the culmination of poor production choices by the companies, focusing on models that sell poorly.  As a result, they have to make up for lost profit somehow.

 

I rather see less models released of more popular variants at a cheaper price point.  Its easy enough to renumber and rename models. 

 

Actually...  why don't the companies offer un-numbered variants?  This is done here in the U.S. with almost every model.  Both unpainted and unnumbered. 

[John M Upton]

Unpainted and/or unnumbered locos have been offered in the UK in the past and have largely failed to sell so the likes of Bachmann and Hornby won't touch them now sadly.

[Seanem44]

 

Unpainted and/or unnumbered locos have been offered in the UK in the past and have largely failed to sell so the likes of Bachmann and Hornby won't touch them now sadly.

 

I just don't get that.  I mean, I believe what you are saying.  I guess I just can't believe they wouldn't be a large draw based upon how easy it is to renumber engines with decals and the ability to purchase name plates these days.  I mean, you could have a fleet of Black 5s and other engines that don't even need names.

 

Very unfortunate.  

[justin1985]

If someone is happy numbering an unnumbered, or unliveried, loco, then the chances are they'd also be happy to re-number one that is pre-numbered. The number of people who would be willing to buy an unnumbered loco and apply the decals themselves, but who wouldn't contemplate re-numbering an existing one, has got to be pretty tiny. Numerically speaking, the vast majority of customers just want to open the box and be done with it, especially with something as expensive as a loco. 

 

Add to that the fact that it makes next to no difference to the production cost at the factory if you're not applying numbers, makes it make much more sense to include them. Standardisation makes things cheaper, and if you're going to standardise, you want to be able to appeal to as broad a section of the market as possible. Additionally, if you only do a limited number of liveries or numbers each year, and don't do un-numbered or un-liveried, you create the possibility that a modeller will buy twice - once when a new model is released even if not in their livery, and again when "their" livery comes along.

 

Dapol did a batch of un-numbered class 73s with rub-down number transfers, and has since sold entirely unpainted but assembled N gauge 4 wheel wagons. I don't recall either being a roaring success. And they certainly haven't been repeated.

 

Please lets not get into the old "prices are getting ridiculous" argument. And anyway, US models have always been cheaper, mainly because there is a much larger market, and a much smaller number of different models (i.e. off the shelf Alco, EMD, etc. locos can be painted for many different roads). Costs can be split much more widely. 

 

Also, remember that what matters to the shareholders of a manufacturer is not the number of models sold, but the turnover and most importantly the profit made. If buyers tend to each have a fixed budget to spend (as seems to be largely the case) its actually BETTER for the manufacturer to get you to buy fewer models at a higher price. If your £500/year budget (for example) goes on two sound fitted all singing all dancing locos, rather than five basic ones, that's the same £500 in their pocket, but less pressure on them to research and design, and tool, new models.

 

Remember the manufacturers aren't around to do us a favour, just to persuade us to part with our cash!

 

J

[Revolution Mike]

Personally, I partly suspect this is the culmination of poor production choices by the companies, focusing on models that sell poorly.  As a result, they have to make up for lost profit somehow.

 

I rather see less models released of more popular variants at a cheaper price point.  Its easy enough to renumber and rename models. 

 

Actually...  why don't the companies offer un-numbered variants?  This is done here in the U.S. with almost every model.  Both unpainted and unnumbered. 

 

Have you got any examples of N gauge models that have sold poorly - I can think of a few that have been sold off at very low margins or taken a while to sell, but not many (Farish 350s and Dapol 56s are perhaps obvious examples). I really doubt that there is much cross-subsidisation across ranges - get that wrong and that is a very quick way to make a loss - or trying to "make up for lost profit".

 

Less models of popular variants at a cheaper price point - you're assuming that would make things cheaper. Furthermore less choice is one sure way to kill off growth in the hobby (whether that is continued sales of new products to existing modellers or growth in terms of new entrants). Perhaps that works in the USA if there was greater standardisation but do we really just want only the "popular" locos to be available?

 

On un-numbered variants - they just don't sell.

Edited March 8, 2018 by red death

[njee20]

I rather see less models released of more popular variants at a cheaper price point.  Its easy enough to renumber and rename models. 

 

Actually...  why don't the companies offer un-numbered variants?  This is done here in the U.S. with almost every model.  Both unpainted and unnumbered. 

 

I'm not even sure I understand the point. Do you mean suppressing demand by only offering 250 class 66s and only in EWS livery, but doing that cheaper?

 

I'm not sure manufacturers are intentionally chasing obscure prototypes - they are offering "more popular variants" by design, that's basic economics. Yes, they may miss the mark occasionally, although often (IMO) due to a peripheral issue rather than it actually being an unpopular prototype (weird colour on the 56s, inaccuracies on the sub classes portrayed, expensive DCC conversion on Farish 350s etc). Furthermore we're in the fortunate position that most of the things we're "crying out for" are increasingly obscure anyway - I've often never heard of half the stuff that comes out near the top of wishlists if it's outside my area of interest.

[Seanem44]

I'm not even sure I understand the point. Do you mean suppressing demand by only offering 250 class 66s and only in EWS livery, but doing that cheaper?

 

I'm not sure manufacturers are intentionally chasing obscure prototypes - they are offering "more popular variants" by design, that's basic economics. Yes, they may miss the mark occasionally, although often (IMO) due to a peripheral issue rather than it actually being an unpopular prototype (weird colour on the 56s, inaccuracies on the sub classes portrayed, expensive DCC conversion on Farish 350s etc). Furthermore we're in the fortunate position that most of the things we're "crying out for" are increasingly obscure anyway - I've often never heard of half the stuff that comes out near the top of wishlists if it's outside my area of interest.

I don't think they are "intentionally" doing it.  I think some things just sell poorly.  And it doesn't help the hobby isn't as popular as it once was and the UK is a much smaller consumer base than the US.  But even prices in the US have been on the rise.  Partly China is to blame.  So to is the need for "super detailed" everything.

 

There are numerous factors.  Numerous.  One only need look at Hornby's bottom line for the issues they are having.

 

As a result, its obvious that all companies have scaled back production across the range of new engines, etc.  One need only compare the current year to years past.  That is what lead me to suspect chasing certain variants has put them partly in the position they are in.

 

View this as a market correction.  We have gone from Bulls to Bears.  I would expect more of the same moving forward.  Higher prices, scaled back releases, etc.

 

It's just business.

[scottystitch]

I think we need to define what is a poor seller. Like njee says, I can only think of the Farish 350 and the Dapol 56 as what would appear extremely poor sellers; they seem to have been hanging around like bad smells for quite some time, the former especially.

 

But other than that, what?

 

If something sells out on pre-order or as soon as released, clearly that makes it a good seller; but having stock on the shelves, is a good thing for us, surely, and doesn't necessarily make it a "poor" seller. It means you don't have to rush out and buy a model as soon as it's released, lest it be gone, if not forever, then until the next time it's manufactured, often 4 or 5 years down the line. D8000 is a case in point, from a personal point of view. 

 

The N market, whilst perhaps not as buoyant as we'd perhaps like, I think looks reasonably healthy. By all accounts, outstanding (ultimately) demand for Revolution Class B tanker (a production run, by all accounts, that the "Big 2" would be happy with), their TEA, Cargowaggon, etc. . Farish Class 40 selling like hotcakes, public uproar at least partly responsible for Dapol taking a second look at their 50.... I'm sure there are others.

 

I'm not sure things are as bad as they are maybe portrayed.

Edited March 8, 2018 by scottystitch

[Littlethorpe]

Speaking personally there are items that I would happily purchase but are unavailable.

 

I will be buying the new 8F in Early BR livery when it hits the shelves and assuming that Farish release a version in Late BR livery at some point in the future then I will purchase one of these also.

 

I will also purchase at least two 25/3s if/when an updated version is available.

 

Although I already have 4 Peaks (44, 45, 2x46) I will certainly purchase updated versions if/when released.

 

I still use DC but would like to try a sound fitted model if any one of the above is released with pre-fitted sound.

 

I have wagons on order from NGS, DJM & Revolution all of whom seem to be meeting latent demand.

 

My point is that part of the problem is unavailability of models that I would willingly purchase. I can't believe that I am the only modeller in this position.

[D9020 Nimbus]

AIUI the late crest 8F will have DCC sound.

[Seanem44]

I think we need to define what is a poor seller. Like njee says, I can only think of the Farish 350 and the Dapol 56 as what would appear extremely poor sellers; they seem to have been hanging around like bad smells for quite some time, the former especially.

 

But other than that, what?

 

If something sells out on pre-order or as soon as released, clearly that makes it a good seller; but having stock on the shelves, is a good thing for us, surely, and doesn't necessarily make it a "poor" seller. It means you don't have to rush out and buy a model as soon as it's released, lest it be gone, if not forever, then until the next time it's manufactured, often 4 or 5 years down the line. D8000 is a case in point, from a personal point of view. 

 

The N market, whilst perhaps not as buoyant as we'd perhaps like, I think looks reasonably healthy. By all accounts, outstanding (ultimately) demand for Revolution Class B tanker (a production run, by all accounts, that the "Big 2" would be happy with), their TEA, Cargowaggon, etc. . Farish Class 40 selling like hotcakes, public uproar at least partly responsible for Dapol taking a second look at their 50.... I'm sure there are others.

 

I'm not sure things are as bad as they are maybe portrayed.

And this very well could be true.  Perhaps "poor seller" was not the right term.  A better statement would be "not financially rewarding" or something to that effect.  And in those cases, sometimes sales has nothing to do with it even.  There are so many factors right now affecting prices.

Edited March 8, 2018 by Seanem44

[Davexoc]

I think we need to define what is a poor seller. Like njee says, I can only think of the Farish 350 and the Dapol 56 as what would appear extremely poor sellers; they seem to have been hanging around like bad smells for quite some time, the former especially.

I think the 350 is a couple of years too early in its release. With the Pendolino, class 92 and the 319 plus the TPE 350 and class 68 all emerging now or the near future, what is left ought to be snapped up. I would also expect a new tooling 90 to appear in a year or two, to almost complete the WCML scene.

The 350 will also reappear sans pan in SWT and SWR in the future, so it isn't all bad....

 

Dave

[rope runner]

I think we need to define what is a poor seller. Like njee says, I can only think of the Farish 350 and the Dapol 56 as what would appear extremely poor sellers; they seem to have been hanging around like bad smells for quite some time, the former especially.

 

But other than that, what?

 

A lot of people with short memories in this thread. 

 

Only 7/8 years ago:

 

Farish Mainline blue 60s could be ordered from Hattons for £38 as they were poor sellers. 

Dapol sector livery 58s were changing hands from the big players for ~£45

Farish MEA wagons were reduced to £3.50 each from several online retailers 

Farish MCA low-sided monsterbox wagons £11 at Hattons

 

And that's just off the top of my head from back when I used to do modern N. I'm willing to bet that experiences like that have not made it the easiest of environments for manufacturers or retailers. 

 

Paul A. 

Edited March 8, 2018 by 1whitemoor

[njee20]

I've said it before that the market is fickle, and things that go on to trade for frankly exorbitant sums are often poor sellers early on.

 

There's also a curious oddity that often one variant of a model will go for peanuts, whilst others command huge prices. Intercity Swallow 86s were being punted out cheap (I bought one from a shop for £50), then they became huge desirable and were going for £180+, meanwhile Dapol continued to sell the EWS and Speedlink Distribution ones for £50, it makes no sense, you could buy a cheap one and get it repainted! The Colas 56s seem to have been similarly unaffected - and seem to have strong residual value, whilst the sectorisation models are being heavily discounted.

 

I agree that the 350 was maybe 'ahead of its time' insofar as its obvious bedfellows were not available RTR. I know a few people who've snapped them up to accompany the Pendolino; it's hard to say whether that's because they're cheap or whether people would have paid (closer to) retail at this point. Then again... Pretendolino mk3 sets are now far more valuable than they once were, and the same holds true.

[Seanem44]

A lot of people with short memories in this thread.

 

Only 7/8 years ago:

 

Farish Mainline blue 60s could be ordered from Hattons for £38 as they were poor sellers.

Dapol sector livery 58s were changing hands from the big players for ~£45

Farish MEA wagons were reduced to £3.50 each from several online retailers

Farish MCA low-sided monsterbox wagons £11 at Hattons

 

And that's just off the top of my head from back when I used to do modern N. I'm willing to bet that experiences like that have not made it the easiest of environments for manufacturers or retailers.

 

Paul A.

Very good point. Even today some good deals can be had, but there aren’t as many. The Hotnby T9 is one such I can think of going for 69.99 and just a spectacular model.

 

Then there is the Deltic Prototype. I mentioned in another thread it’s back for preorder. This is a ten year old model almost and it’s increased in price almost 25%.

 

So this begs the question, has labor and production costs in China raised 25% the past decade.

Edited March 9, 2018 by Seanem44

[Crepello]

Very good point. Even today some good deals can be had, but there aren’t as many. The Hotnby T9 is one such I can think of going for 69.99 and just a spectacular model.

 

Then there is the Deltic Prototype. I mentioned in another thread it’s back for preorder. This is a ten year old model almost and it’s increased in price almost 25%.

 

So this begs the question, has labor and production costs in China raised 25% the past decade.

Not just China costs but the lower value of the £ since the B vote. We all know the way to change this though. 

[justin1985]

So this begs the question, has labor and production costs in China raised 25% the past decade.

 

Yes, at least. And then some.

 

The first hit on Google (a story from CNBC) suggests the average wage in China increased by 63% between 2011 and 2017. Obviously an average doesn't tell you much about the specifics of the model making industry, but I think every suggestion is that 25% would be the bottom end of reasonable estimates.

 

Add to that the exchange rates (Chinese factories insist on being paid in US$) and the cliff edge that occurred after a certain event in 2016 and still hasn't recovered to $1.40 (and is likely to fall again with current uncertainties).

 

In that context price rises in the model shops have probably been quite restrained! 

 

J

[Revolution Mike]

So this begs the question, has labor and production costs in China raised 25% the past decade.

 

Yes, easily - just look at Chinese inflation rates which easily average out at 25% for the past decade.

[Seanem44]

Yes, at least. And then some.

 

The first hit on Google (a story from CNBC) suggests the average wage in China increased by 63% between 2011 and 2017. Obviously an average doesn't tell you much about the specifics of the model making industry, but I think every suggestion is that 25% would be the bottom end of reasonable estimates.

 

Add to that the exchange rates (Chinese factories insist on being paid in US$) and the cliff edge that occurred after a certain event in 2016 and still hasn't recovered to $1.40 (and is likely to fall again with current uncertainties).

 

In that context price rises in the model shops have probably been quite restrained! 

 

J

 

So then the question moving forward is how to keep things economical...

 

I think in OO gauge I would have no issues applying many of the separately applied finer details.  That might help keep cost down there, as opposed to having a laborer in China do it.

 

If course in N Gauge its not so simple, being such a smaller scale.  I don't know that I could do it.

 

Does the UK ever do a VAT holiday?  For example, some states here in the US forgo state taxes for a day.  I can only imagine that might be a boon and help recoup some of the cost increase.

 

The only other thing I can think of us moving production.  I read that here in the States, production costs are now almost on par with China.  Maybe its not longer cost effective to produce there, and other alternatives should be searched out.  I'm sure the companies are doing that.

Edited March 9, 2018 by Seanem44

[Revolution Mike]

So then the question moving forward is how to keep things economical...

 

I think in OO gauge I would have no issues applying many of the separately applied finer details.  That might help keep cost down there, as opposed to having a laborer in China do it.

 

If course in N Gauge its not so simple, being such a smaller scale.  I don't know that I could do it.

 

Does the UK ever do a VAT holiday?  For example, some states here in the US forgo state taxes for a day.  I can only imagine that might be a boon and help recoup some of the cost increase.

 

You're starting from a false premise ie that things aren't already "economical" or that prices are too high - both of which are entirely subjective and personal decisions.

 

Self assembly - given the howls of protest whenever details are not firmly attached or people have to apply certain details (eg Vitrains models) then I think you can forget that for a lot of the market. Further evidenced by the reluctance to make kits.

 

VAT holiday - no (but non-EU purchasers shouldn't be paying VAT anyway).

[njee20]

Mike's spot on IMO. There are always going to be a small minority of people who complain things are too expensive. I guarantee if you go back 10 years you'll find people moaning still. Yet models still sell out, the market seems healthy, I'm genuinely not sure what problem you're trying to solve?

 

I don't want to be applying details to RTR models myself (things like buffer beam detailing aside, but even then I like that the Dapol 68 came so fitted). I don't mind building kits, or whatever, if there's a cost advantage, but I'm fine with the price of RTR in general, don't blur that line. I think we're spoiled in the quality and the choice of models available, it's an exciting time to be a modeller. If stuff got cheaper would I buy more? Probably not frankly. I'd still cherry pick what I buy - to fit in with my interests, time period and location modelled etc.

 

They did cut VAT to 15% for a while a few years back, but to be honest I'm not sure it really has much of an impact. Perhaps on a macro level - insofar as it means household expenditure drops, but I'm not sure it stimulates sales on a micro level. If Farish cut prices by 5% tomorrow it would have no effect whatsoever on my purchasing habits. VAT is included in all our selling prices though, unlike sales tax, so people are probably less aware of it. I know I'm always slightly enraged by Sales tax in the US in that you think an item will cost X, and then it costs Y, that's lunacy IMO!

[Seanem44]

I wasn't starting from anything really, I was merely furthering a discussion on a comment others had made about rising prices, which we have pretty much determined is indeed happening.

 

On the flip side...  sound and DCC being integrated into locomotives has become noticeably less expensive.

[TomE]

The price rises in the past 4 - 5 years have been almost exclusively a result of colossal Government driven wage growth in China. Like I said further up the thread, Bachmann have already tried to mitigate this by better design, improved injection moulding techniques and added value through DCC sound & lighting. These things can only go so far to offset the rises in the face of massively increased labour costs. A potential ray of light is that Chinese wages are now showing signs of plateauing, so perhaps future rises will not be as severe. 

 

I suspect any effect of Brexit is almost certainly yet to filter it's way down to retail price, if for no other reason than Bachmann's own capacity issues and associated reduced output mean we haven't seen a post referendum designed & manufactured model hit the shelves yet, so no-one can really say with certainty what level of impact this will have. A bigger threat to prices is probably increasing costs of raw materials brought about by protectionist trade tariffs currently being applied by a certain blond floppy haired orange tit, and the retaliatory action taken by other trading blocs. 

 

I think we just have to accept that prices are only going one way in this hobby, and any temporary relief that might be brought about by efficiencies in production such as self fitted parts or self applied numbering would be so small as to be almost immediately obliterated by the smallest of external factors beyond the manufacturers control. 

 

Tom.  

Edited March 9, 2018 by TomE