Graham Farish 2018 - the full announcements

[Revolution Ben]

I don't want to be applying details to RTR models myself (things like buffer beam detailing aside, but even then I like that the Dapol 68 came so fitted).<snipped>

 

I have never minded applying the details (in fact, I always do on review models to check they fit properly!) but I was surprised how pleased I was to be saved that job - and the buffer beam looks fantastic.  In fact, my only caveat is that if I did want to fit a coupler at both ends I would feel bad removing some of that that lovely detail!

 

 

 

...Typically, older modellers have more disposable income, and younger modellers have less.

 

The older generation won't be around forever, and younger modellers will move onto other hobbies as they'll be priced out. Couple that to the fact that there will be fewer enthusiasts in general due to the stigma that surrounds it, and I'd say the long term outlook for railway modelling is bleak.

 

 

In terms of trying to make things cheaper, or doom and gloom warnings that young people will be turned away from the hobby - twas ever thus.  As a child I got a new loco at Xmas, and that was it.  Then I lost interest, and moved on, returning to model trains when I had more time and cash.  Those who are bitten by the bug are usually bitten - in some way or another - for life.  And those young people of today will be getting better jobs tomorrow, and (with apologies to Evelyn Waugh) will return to the hobby as generations have before them, with just a twitch upon the thread.

 

Besides, in practical terms there are more models, more detail, more magazines, more exhibitions, more TV coverage and more avenues for discussion and enjoyment than ever before.  

 

What is not to celebrate and enjoy?

 

cheers

 

Ben A.

Edited March 9, 2018 by Ben A

[PaulCheffus]

What worries me even more though is that these price increases, for whatever their reasons, just don’t seem to be slowing the hobby down as we’ve been saying this over and over for the past 10 years. This means a lot of people are quite happy to pay such prices, meaning there is little demand to lower them, potentially forever pricing out those without substantial disposable incomes.

Hi

 

In my case I've been buying less, in fact I don't think I've bought anything by either Farish or Dapol for the last couple of years. 

 

Cheers

 

Paul

[Seanem44]

I have never minded applying the details (in fact, I always do on review models to check they fit properly!) but I was surprised how pleased I was to be saved that job - and the buffer beam looks fantastic.  In fact, my only caveat is that if I did want to fit a coupler at both ends I would feel bad removing some of that that lovely detail!

 

 

 

 

 

In terms of trying to make things cheaper, or doom and gloom warnings that young people will be turned away from the hobby - twas ever thus.  As a child I got a new loco at Xmas, and that was it.  Then I lost interest, and moved on, returning to model trains when I had more time and cash.  Those who are bitten by the bug are usually bitten - in some way or another - for life.  And those young people of today will be getting better jobs tomorrow, and (with apologies to Evelyn Waugh) will return to the hobby as generations have before them, with just a twitch upon the thread.

 

Besides, in practical terms there are more models, more detail, more magazines, more exhibitions, more TV coverage and more avenues for discussion and enjoyment than ever before.  

 

What is not to celebrate and enjoy?

 

cheers

 

Ben A.

See...  unfortunately I would have to disagree.

 

I am also an amateur astronomer and astrophotographer.   Our hobby has as well been hit by higher prices, but this has had less of an effect overall because those willing to purchase a $1000 scope aren't going to fret over a few hundred more. Its mainly affected eye pieces. 

 

The most concerning aspect though is the loss of our youth.  My Astronomy club has taken notice of this and it has been a continuing trend the last decade.

 

I have an explanation for that as well... and it goes affects more than just model railroading, astronomy and traditional hobbies.  It has had a large effect on sports as well.

 

The recent surge in popularity of online gaming, streaming and eSports has indeed made a huge dent in hobbies and sports in general.  I know this because I also stream and produce YouTube videos.

 

While we may not know the total impact of this, there is indeed an impact that can not be denied. 

 

Its a different time with a different generation of youth with different tastes. 

 

But... as you said... maybe they'll find their way to the hobby when they get older.  Of course that doesn't necessarily help on the now.

Edited March 9, 2018 by Seanem44

[njee20]

I'm not sure I really buy people being 'priced out'. Yes ok, maybe previously they bought more of one wagon (for example), but it's not like you have to keep buying in order to remain in the hobby. You can have a very static collection.

 

If people really do decide it's got so expensive they want to sell everything and give up then there's a healthy second hand market, with prices buoyed by the new costs, such that the hypothetical person would probably have quite a large amount of money to rebuy their collection, particularly if you buy second hand I find most things can be cost neutral.

Newcomers to the hobby are unlikely to be put off, because they won't remember "those halcyon days" where everything was cheap.

 

The decline in youth entering the hobby is nothing to do with cost. If you made model railways 10% of the price it still wouldn't be flooded with young participants. Just look at the price of games consoles, plus new games, online subscriptions, peripherals etc etc, the cost argument is totally moot. We don't have lots of young people doing model railways because it's not cool. Simple. Like Ben I was interested in model railways when I was younger, I drifted away in my teenage years and returned to it when I could afford (both space and money) a layout of my own.

Edited March 9, 2018 by njee20

[John M Upton]

A lot of people bemoan the ever increasing prices but yet quite a few models, especially second runs of the same livery seem to find their way to bargain bins eventually.  There seemed to be a flood of N gauge Class 37/4's at the end of last year for sub seventy notes (okay, not the Large Logo one which is like hens teeth!) whilst in OO gauge last year at Ally Pally one retailer was knocking out very cheap Hornby much of which was under half the original RRP.

[fezza]

Personally I do think price is a factor in hobby popularity.

 

A PS4 now costs less than £200. A decent Dcc system will cost a lot more than that.

 

A premium PS4 game costs £45 sometimes less. A premium loco with dcc sound well over £200.

 

Electronic toys have generally fallen in price in recent years years while model railways have gone up (partly because the grey pound is prepared to pay premium prices). Not great for youngsters...

[grahame]

Electronic toys have generally fallen in price in recent years years while model railways have gone up (partly because the grey pound is prepared to pay premium prices). Not great for youngsters...

Electronic toys have come down in price because of economies of scale (more are made and sold) and because they are assembled by robots, while model railways have gone up because of increasing labour costs which is still required to assemble them and the greater time to do it to fit the increasing details being added, not because of the grey pound being prepared to pay premium prices. After all margins have not gone up.

 

And I'd have thought that is great for youngsters as they prefer electronic toys/games. But when they grow up, get better jobs, have more time, more disposable income and their preferences mature to a more gentiler constructional pastime, with luck they'll consider model railways as a hobby.

 

G

[grahame]

 

The most concerning aspect though is the loss of our youth.  My Astronomy club has taken notice of this and it has been a continuing trend the last decade.

 

That is simply because the world has changed and the youth of today are not like the youth in our parents day. They are no longer interested in clubs and what they consider introverted hobbies, but want new technology that gives them a stage and say in the world through social media, communications and virtual gaming. It's all about the individual now and social standing, not about joining and giving mutual support through clubs and societies.

 

G

[fezza]

I don't think there is much doubt about the grey pound demanding more detail and being prepared to pay for it. It has been the main trend in the hobby in recent years.

 

Production costs are a factor but they are lower than they were in Poole days. I suspect that the Bachmann parent demands more margin than the old family firm!

[grahame]

Production costs are a factor but they are lower than they were in Poole days. I suspect that the Bachmann parent demands more margin than the old family firm!

Have you any evidence for those two claims?

 

Production was moved to China because it was perceived as being cheaper but those costs have now recently (in the last half a dozen years) shot up. With increased levels of detail, escalating labour costs, VAT up (from 10% when introduced in 1973 to 20% now), extra and increasing transportation costs (half way around the world), currency exchange rate fluctuations, and so on. So what makes you think it is cheaper now than in Poole days?

 

G

[fezza]

Did you ever see the Poole factory?

 

They moved to China and different production methods for a reason.

 

Our firm does business in China and we all knew costs would rise in the medium term but it was still much cheaper than Britain. The madness of Brexit is hitting the currency but that is only a small part of the story.

 

Bachmann have made no secret of their business model when explaining price increases.

[grahame]

Did you ever see the Poole factory? They moved to China and different production methods for a reason.

 

Graham Faish didn't decide to move to China. They sold the business to Bachmann/Kader who decided to move production to China - partly to take advantage of their other products production facilities in China and the, at the time, lower labour costs. But that was nearly two decades ago and things, including costs, have changed since then.

 

G

[grahame]

Hi

 

In my case I've been buying less, in fact I don't think I've bought anything by either Farish or Dapol for the last couple of years.

 

 

Yep, me too. I have purchased very little over the last few years. But that's not because of price, but because they have not produced anything I particularly want.

 

So roll on the promised class 319 and fingers crossed someone announces a 2EPB.

 

G

Edited March 11, 2018 by grahame

[Davexoc]

A PS4 now costs less than £200. A decent Dcc system will cost a lot more than that.

 

A premium PS4 game costs £45 sometimes less. A premium loco with dcc sound well over £200.

And the console will be obsolete in a couple of years, and the games updated almost annualy. The loco if looked after will last years, the games consigned to history and worth next to nothing at CEX. You are comparing chalk and cheese......

 

Dave

[Legend]

Did you ever see the Poole factory?

They moved to China and different production methods for a reason.

Our firm does business in China and we all knew costs would rise in the medium term but it was still much cheaper than Britain. The madness of Brexit is hitting the currency but that is only a small part of the story.

Bachmann have made no secret of their business model when explaining price increases.

You’re absolutely correct Fezza . I also have to monitor costs as part of my job and labour costs in China are a fraction of those in UK even with recent increases . The cost of shipping a container to UK is also measured in low hundreds .

 

Its in the latest Bachmann times that it’s revealed that Bachmann now have to recover tooling and development costs in the first run of a model, rather than over subsequent runs . I think that’s certainly one of the drivers for large price increases. Of course that would mean the second run should be much more profitable.

Edited March 11, 2018 by Legend

[ash39]

Regarding labour costs, there must be getting closer and closer to a point where it becomes more cost effective to move manufacturing back to the UK.

 

China are heading further and further towards equal pay with the West, so when you factor in the not insignificant cost of shipping, and flights to and from China to visit factories, we might not be far away from a gradual shift back to UK production. I can't remember where I read it now, but I'm sure I saw something about Dapol producing a small part of the range out of Chirk in the near future.

 

What moving production back to the UK would do in terms of pricing to the end user, I don't know. Personally I feel the price increases would be more palatable if I knew the model was being manufactured in the UK, creating jobs and I suppose minimising the risk of transit damage as well.

[bennyboy]

Regarding labour costs, there must be getting closer and closer to a point where it becomes more cost effective to move manufacturing back to the UK.

 

China are heading further and further towards equal pay with the West, so when you factor in the not insignificant cost of shipping, and flights to and from China to visit factories, we might not be far away from a gradual shift back to UK production. I can't remember where I read it now, but I'm sure I saw something about Dapol producing a small part of the range out of Chirk in the near future.

 

What moving production back to the UK would do in terms of pricing to the end user, I don't know. Personally I feel the price increases would be more palatable if I knew the model was being manufactured in the UK, creating jobs and I suppose minimising the risk of transit damage as well.

 

 

But it's not just about the labour costs, it's also about finding the skilled people to run the factory. Don't forget that these factories have been making highly detailed models for 30-40 years, whereas perhaps with the exception of Dapol, no one else in this country has any recent experience of running a factory like that. Also you mention the cost of shipping, but do you realise how relatively little it costs to ship a container from China? And you can fit a lot £100+ models in a one container.

[Seanem44]

The most striking thing I’ve seen which is a huge eye opener is the Deltic Prototype. Reading an old issue of BRM, Hattons had it priced at 80 pounds in March of 2011 in their ad. It’s gone up for preorder for rerelease at 123.00. That’s a 40 pound increase in 7 years for pre existing tooling. I’m sorry, but that is quite ridiculous. I understand the factors affecting everything. However, this will effect the hobby greatly. A 35% increase in 7 years far outstrips wage increases and inflation. If Brexit is the cause, perhaps things might get better, but honestly I don’t see costs coming back down. I suspect many more than usual will be buying bargains specifically in the future.

Edited March 12, 2018 by Seanem44

[TomE]

This thread is becoming circular, but let’s look at why a 35% increase is not quite as ridiculous as you claim:

 

Average Chinese yearly wage in 2011: 42,452 yuan

 

Average Chinese yearly wage in 2016: 67,569 yuan

 

That’s a 59% increase up to 2016.

 

Now we don’t know how much Bachmann wage costs have increased but if the average increase is 59% then it’s not hard to see what has been the driving force behind price rises for the models we buy.

 

Compared this, any increase from world or political events, if the latter have even filtered through to the model shop shelves yet, will be relatively insignificant.

 

Tom.

[Legend]

This thread is becoming circular, but let’s look at why a 35% increase is not quite as ridiculous as you claim:

 

Average Chinese yearly wage in 2011: 42,452 yuan

 

Average Chinese yearly wage in 2016: 67,569 yuan

 

That’s a 59% increase up to 2016.

 

Now we don’t know how much Bachmann wage costs have increased but if the average increase is 59% then it’s not hard to see what has been the driving force behind price rises for the models we buy.

 

Compared this, any increase from world or political events, if the latter have even filtered through to the model shop shelves yet, will be relatively insignificant.

 

Tom.

But then you need to know the % labour in the final retail price . A 59% increase in labour does not equal a 59% increase in retail price.

[Seanem44]

This will be my last post on the topic as it has become circular indeed. It’s up to the manufacturers to find innovations to protect the consumer from such price jumps. Model trains aren’t the only items built in China, yet I’ve seen few things that have increased in price as much. China still manages to build electronics at price points much less than counterparts. And there are catching up in the quality and quality control department. For example, again, a company in astrophotography called ZWO has created a CMOS imaging camera that has cut in half the cost of imagers. What was once a barrier to entry for CCD imagers at $2000 Can now be had for $1000 and is reshaping the hobby. Granted these are Chinese companies located in China. Bachman and the other companies need to renegotiate if they feel they are getting a bad deal. China is not the only country that can manufacture items.

[DJM Dave]

Can I throw something of a grenade into things here for a little more clarity?

 

Please don’t forget that it’s not just wages that have gone up in China.

 

The Chinese government, keen to move product manufacture ‘up country’ and away from the domineering Shenzhen and Hong Kong business areas, raised business taxes making things more uncomfortable for manufacturers in these areas.

 

Also not only wages have gone up, fuel, transportation (busses and trains), on site living and conditions have had to get better as China starts to implement a form of health and safety. (And trust me, they certainly needed to). This all costs.

 

It’s all a big Pain in the posterior for manufacturers, financially, and to keep margins at a sustainable level, and in some cases pay their masters too, things have had to go up.

 

Some will pay those prices for models, some won’t. But the UK has been living in a financial ‘bubble’ for model railways for many years now, and that bubble is bursting slowly, and as such we are getting better products but at a higher price than previously.

 

You also have to consider, that if a company has a lean year, they must still grow their range to survive, and that money has to come from somewhere. I.e. you and I, the modeller.

 

We may not like it, but this is here to stay. Wise eyes are looking outside China for production, as in the medium term this will be the only way to keep manufacturing at a ‘semi sustainable’ cost.

 

One things for sure, prices will never go down.

 

It’s just how much of all this new product we can, as consumers, afford. After all, money is finite, and something has to give.

And maybe on another thread, elsewhere on this forum, has with one manufacturer?

 

Cheers

Dave

[Karhedron]

Regarding labour costs, there must be getting closer and closer to a point where it becomes more cost effective to move manufacturing back to the UK.

Eventually that will be true. I remember Dapol mentioning some time ago that an N Gauge loco to modern standards, produced in Britain would probably cost around the £300 mark. Now obviously this was just a ball-park figure but I think it gives a useful indication of how much cheaper it is to export manufacturing, even after the recent price increases.

 

I doubt it will happen though. If prices from China increase to the point of being uncompetitive, I imagine that other far-eastern countries will step in and start to undercut China. I have heard of Vietnam being mentioned as a potential "Next China".

 

Maybe new technologies like 3D printing will change the economics of things but the quality is not yet there for RTR models IMHO.

[njee20]

This will be my last post on the topic as it has become circular indeed. It’s up to the manufacturers to find innovations to protect the consumer from such price jumps. Model trains aren’t the only items built in China, yet I’ve seen few things that have increased in price as much. 

1) I disagree, they're the arbiters of the price rises, even if driven by external influences

 

2) Check out bicycles - huge increases in the last 10 years, well over 100% increases between 2007 and 2011, more stable now. Generally attributed to prices being held artificially low for years until there was no more space for that. It's not killed the industry though despite a small number of naysayers (sound familiar?). Basically exactly the same as Dave says is happening in model railways now - we've been conditioned to an artificial norm, which is now being 'recalibrated'.

 

3) consumer electronics are a really bad comparator because the scale is so colossal in comparison, they can weather small prices rises far more easily. Ask Sony to produce 500 TVs and see how volatile the price becomes.

[Revolution Ben]

Average Chinese yearly wage in 2016: 67,569 yuan

 

<snipped>

Tom.

 

67,569 yuan = £7,708.

 

Perhaps worth pointing out here that in the UK the average salary is £27,600, and the average factory worker salary is £17,389.  

 

Also should be mentioned that our RTR models are, in effect, kits that have been put together on a production line in a factory geared up for that purpose.  This is skilled work requiring high levels of dexterity (after all, how many on here find kits hard to build?) so I would suggest that any UK factory worker involved in such a business would command a salary of at least £21k - or three times as much as China - and that is still below the national average.

 

In Poole Farish days models had one piece bodyshells (with separate buffers and glazing) and basic chassis with no PCB or lights.  Now we take for granted that models will have separate windscreen wipers, photo-etched grilles and louvres, some factory fitted bufferbeam air pipes (Farish 40, Dapol 68, Revolution 92) PCBs with lights and a variety of light functions, bogies with lots of separate details etc etc.

 

So as a proportion of the overall cost of the model, the assembly/production has become a much more significant factor.  And those wage increases in China are having a disproportionate effect.

 

And moving assembly back to the UK (even if you discounted the cost of shipping over the tooling and purchasing all the moulding/spray/tampo equipment and recruiting and training your workforce) would immediately increase that contribution by 300%.

 

Dapol have brought their container moulds back to the UK, and are moulding and painting/printing containers at Chirk now.  But these are basic boxes, with no additional detail, and relatively straightforward painting/printing.

 

cheers

 

Ben A.

Edited March 12, 2018 by Ben A