Declining passenger numbers North of Inverness

[18B]

Hi

 

while looking at the passenger figures from station on the line north of Inverness, they seem to be in decline?? are there any underlying reasons for this? For the general trend elsewhere seems to be on of growth and increasing passenger numbers?

Edited November 6, 2018 by 18B

[Mark Saunders]

Please post your source so others can do some informed comment!

[18B]

Please post your source so others can do some informed comment!

 

a typical station https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Garve_railway_station of Garve, down from 5,384 in 2012/13 to 3,668 in 2016/17.

 

picked at random

 

tain, 2012/13 34,016 2013/14 34,578 2014/15 30,004 2015/16 27,896 2016/17 28,622

 

 

Ivergordon 2012/13 34,974 2013/14 36,356 2014/15 31,962 2015/16 29,054 2016/17 27,886

 

 

Scotscalder 2012/13 460 2013/14 376 2014/15 388 2015/16 294 2016/17 200

 

 

Strathcarron 2012/13 9,304 2013/14 8,950 2014/15 8,262 2015/16 8,162 2016/17 7,678

 

 

Ardgay 2012/13 8,108 2013/14 8,806 2014/15 8,416 2015/16 6,732 2016/17 7,144

 

 

not good statistics...

Edited November 6, 2018 by 18B

[John M Upton]

I've never trusted those statistics.  It is based on the number of tickets purchased specifically to/from a named station but in this day and age of rovers tickets and people travelling who interrupt their journey mid way, a lot of these statistics are pretty much meaningless.

[18B]

I've never trusted those statistics.  It is based on the number of tickets purchased specifically to/from a named station but in this day and age of rovers tickets and people travelling who interrupt their journey mid way, a lot of these statistics are pretty much meaningless.

 

meaningless? really......

 

how many people are travelling on rover tickets north of Inverness. I haven't found any station north of Inverness where the tickets sold are more than those of five years ago.....

 

Is it that the tourists aren't travelling by train? are the locals not using them as much?

[darrel]

At one point there were statistics showing only 10 journeys a day from Helensburgh upper get the early morning train to Glasgow had at least 30 passengers getting on every morning. Most had season tickets or zone cards issued at Helensburgh central. Therefore their journeys were counted as being to and from Helensburgh central

[eastwestdivide]

I've never trusted those statistics.  It is based on the number of tickets purchased specifically to/from a named station but in this day and age of rovers tickets and people travelling who interrupt their journey mid way, a lot of these statistics are pretty much meaningless.

The individual numbers may well be a best guess based on tickets to/from a particular station, but surely if the figures are collected consistently, and there's no major change in ticket-buying habits*, the trends should still be valid.

 

*such as a zone ticket suddenly becoming available that lots of people then use in preference to ordinary tickets.

Edited November 6, 2018 by eastwestdivide

[Pete the Elaner]

Why are passenger numbers increasing elsewhere?

Cars are more affordable now than ever. Many larger cities are now so choked with traffic that it is easier & quicker to take the train, which drives passenger numbers up.

This is not the case in less densely populated areas such as the Highlands.

 

I travelled from Inverness to Muir of Ord in late September. I checked the timetable to get back & was pleased I did. Trains did not run regularly at all. Each one left at a different minute past each hour.

I think this discourages rail travel but if trains did run more often, they would be empty.

[18B]

Why are passenger numbers increasing elsewhere?

Cars are more affordable now than ever. Many larger cities are now so choked with traffic that it is easier & quicker to take the train, which drives passenger numbers up.

This is not the case in less densely populated areas such as the Highlands.

 

I travelled from Inverness to Muir of Ord in late September. I checked the timetable to get back & was pleased I did. Trains did not run regularly at all. Each one left at a different minute past each hour.

I think this discourages rail travel but if trains did run more often, they would be empty.

 

Muir of Ord is a hard station to have a even interval service given from how far away the trains come from to pass through Muir of Ord,

 

 Arr   Dep  Wttid    Origin        Destination  

07:21 07:22 2H54 ARDGAY    06:14 INVERNESS 07:43

07:50 07:51 2H58 LAIRG     06:26 INVERNESS 08:12

08:28 08:30 2H80 KYLEOFLOC 06:11 INVERNESS 08:50

09:40 09:41 1H78 KYLEOFLOC 06:58 BOATGNGB  13:19

10:13 10:14 2H60 WICK      06:18 INVERNESS 10:35

12:04 12:06 2H56 WICK      08:02 INVERNESS 12:26

12:39 12:40 1H81 KYLEOFLOC 08:39 BOATGNGB  16:44

12:57 12:58 2H70 DINGWALL  12:45 INVERNESS 13:19

14:21 14:22 2H82 KYLEOFLOC 12:08 INVERNESS 14:42

16:02 16:03 2H84 KYLEOFLOC 13:46 INVERNESS 16:26

16:22 16:24 2H72 INVERGRDN 15:51 INVERNESS 16:46

16:38 16:39 2H62 WICK      12:34 INVERNESS 17:02

19:30 19:31 2H86 KYLEOFLOC 17:13 ELGIN     20:45

19:51 19:52 2H64 WICK      16:00 INVERNESS 20:10

20:36 20:37 2H74 ARDGAY    19:28 INVERNESS 20:57

23:10 23:11 2H76 TAIN      22:21 INVERNESS 23:31

 

There's some bad bunching of trains around 12pm and 4pm, but in all, it's not the worst of timetables

 

[LBRJ]

Those figures appear to show a combined drop of 1400 passengers in a year - That is about 4 people per day, or 6 if you only count weekdays. That is not at the three stations showing a rise in passenger numbers though.

Edited November 6, 2018 by LBRJ

[woodenhead]

There could be a number of factors and not simply car ownership or regularity of trains:

• Rise in home delivery of goods - less need to travel to a big city for certain items
• improved local access to supermarkets lessening need to travel
• Rise in home delivery of shopping - easier than getting a train to the next big town
• Employment changes - North Sea Oil activity will also drive onshore work and if there is less then less people may travel
• Schools/colleges - changes in locations may also affect activity on the trains

[18B]

Those figures appear to show a combined drop of 1400 passengers in a year - That is 4 people per day

 

Scotscalder is down from 460 in 2012/13 to 200 in 2016/17..... that's not even one person a day.... the point is near on all the stations I looked at for north of Inverness are showing declining usage......

 

and as an aside, a station like Scotscalder, with a mere 200 ticket sales in a year... would the line as a whole not benefit from the closure of such stations like Kildonan

 

2012/13 62 2013/14 144 2014/15 96 2015/16 170 2016/17 76

 

76 passengers just begs the question of why is it still open?   

Edited November 6, 2018 by 18B

['CHARD]

 

There could be a number of factors and not simply car ownership or regularity of trains:

• Rise in home delivery of goods - less need to travel to a big city for certain items
• improved local access to supermarkets lessening need to travel
• Rise in home delivery of shopping - easier than getting a train to the next big town
• Employment changes - North Sea Oil activity will also drive onshore work and if there is less then less people may travel
• Schools/colleges - changes in locations may also affect activity on the trains

 

 

Not forgetting any demographic shifts...  Ageing population maybe in some areas offset by more of college/ working age in others..

[Dungrange]

how many people are travelling on rover tickets north of Inverness. I haven't found any station north of Inverness where the tickets sold are more than those of five years ago.....

 

Is it that the tourists aren't travelling by train? are the locals not using them as much?

 

If you look at the methodology report, it specifically highlights that changes in methodology between years can be a limitation.  However, appendix E also states that Rover and Ranger tickets are excluded from these usage estimates.  That would, therefore, mean that if more tourists were switching to this ticket type rather than purchasing point to point tickets, then estimated entry/exit figures would decline even although the actual usage may not.

 

http://orr.gov.uk/__data/assets/pdf_file/0014/26132/estimates-of-station-usage-2016-17-methodological-report.pdf

 

However, I'm not entirely surprised if there is a downward trend.  Travel times by rail are not particularly competitive with car-based travel and as Pete has highlighted above, rural areas don't present the same drivers of growth as many of our urban conurbations, where commuters are switching from road to rail due to congestion and increasing parking charges.  Transfer times at Inverness can also be variable - ie if travelling from the Scottish Central Belt, some services don't integrate well with travel to stations further north.

[Wheatley]

It's an atypical route and those are (mostly) penny numbers so likely to be affected by factors which wouldn't normally show up at a busier station further south.

 

What closed in Invergordon in 2015 to cause 20 people fewer per day to commute in from Tain ? (or vice versa).  

[Ronnie MB]

I suspect the figure for Culrain collapsed when the Youth Hostel closed.

[Joseph_Pestell]

Admittedly, these are quite recent declines. But, even so, I would think that the biggest factor would be the big improvements to the A9, especially the Dornoch bridge. Makes it so much easier to do the journey by car or bus.

[Legend]

Admittedly, these are quite recent declines. But, even so, I would think that the biggest factor would be the big improvements to the A9, especially the Dornoch bridge. Makes it so much easier to do the journey by car or bus.

 

I think this is true . Its faster by car to get to Wick/Thurso than it is by train. Added to that the convenience of going when you choose to go rather than using one of the sparse train services , and that you probably need the car anyway unless your journey originates in central Inverness . It just means the train is not that attractive time wise.  Regret to say it because I love trains and don't want to lose them .

[caradoc]

The passenger service on the Far North line (although not so much to Kyle) is more frequent now than at any time in its history, with, as well as the four per day to Wick/Thurso, various 'short' workings. There are however no additional loops (and no double track), which makes both timetabling and regulating complicated. During my time in Glasgow Control there were occasions when, in the event of late running, we held the afternoon Down Wick train for 50 minutes, if not more, to avoid a 15/20 minute delay to an Up service. Sounds ludicrous but when the Down train arrived at Wick, due to the turnround time and change of Traincrew, the late running was finished, whereas if the Up train ran late it caused all sorts of further delay which continued until the end of service. As mentioned above the journey time via the A9 is, thanks to the huge sums spent on it, quicker than by rail, without considering service reliability.

[Dungrange]

Scotscalder is down from 460 in 2012/13 to 200 in 2016/17..... that's not even one person a day.... the point is near on all the stations I looked at for north of Inverness are showing declining usage......

 

and as an aside, a station like Scotscalder, with a mere 200 ticket sales in a year... would the line as a whole not benefit from the closure of such stations like Kildonan

 

2012/13 62 2013/14 144 2014/15 96 2015/16 170 2016/17 76

 

76 passengers just begs the question of why is it still open?   

 

I understand your point, but what is the 'purpose' of the railway north of Inverness?  For inter-urban services like Edinburgh to Glasgow, the railway conveys large numbers of people between two cities in both directions.  Intermediate stops increase the end to end journey times, as each train is required to slow down, stop to let passengers alight and other passengers to board and then accelerate back to line speed.  Each stop is probably two or three minutes of delay to those on the train.  The more stops, the more delay, and the more uncompetitive the journey time, the more people will switch to other competing transport modes - typically the car.  This, therefore, means that the number of intermediate stops is limited to ensure a competitive end-to-end journey time and trains will not stop at stations with few passengers.  Effectively the optimum solution is to consider the economic disbenefits to end-to-end passengers who are delayed by the intermediate stops and compare that to the economic benefits to those boarding and alighting at intermediate stations.  This approach would favour the closure of stations that few passengers use.

 

However, whilst closing some rarely used stations on the Far North Line would reduce end-to-end journey times, a five or even ten minute time saving on a journey from Inverness to Thurso would not be enough to make it competitive with the car or even the bus.  I would, therefore, argue that the Far North Line is not competing against the car as it is in the majority of the county.  Unlike the vast majority of the rail network, the 'purpose' of the Far North Line is to 'connect' a number of small and relatively remote settlements, thus providing at least some opportunity for those without a car to travel to other settlements in the corridor.  Therefore, closing stations that serve settlements like Scotscalder and Kildonan would, in my opinion, remove the reason that the Far North Line has remained open, despite being threatened with closure in the Reshaping of British Railways (ie the Beeching Report).  Of course, this means that trends such as increasing car ownership are likely to result in a reduction in rail travel as the drivers for increased rail usage in other parts of the country don't exist.

 

Furthermore, the principle of comparing the economic disbenefits to end-to-end passengers against the economic benefits to those boarding and alighting at intermediate stations could still be applied.  Since the number or end-to-end passengers is relatively low, so too is the economic disbenefit, whilst the travel choices for those who do use the train are limited and therefore the benefits to those individuals could be considered to be higher - ie what is the cost of their alternative travel option? 

[Coryton]

At one point there were statistics showing only 10 journeys a day from Helensburgh upper get the early morning train to Glasgow had at least 30 passengers getting on every morning. Most had season tickets or zone cards issued at Helensburgh central. Therefore their journeys were counted as being to and from Helensburgh central

 

I have long suspected that Coryton station (at the end of a short branch line in Cardiff) has somewhat inflated figures because lots of people know that thanks to a hidden zonal system the fare to Cardiff is the same from Coryton as for several stations on the line closer to Cardiff so they might as well get their season ticket from Coryton.

 

Some people commuting into Cardiff are aware that for the same reason for no additional cost they can extend their ticket to a station the other side of Cardiff in the same zone, and these presumably show up as a journey a day to somewhere they rarely travel to (or maybe never actually get round to it).

 

Edited to add: 

 

According to the Wikipedia figures, ridership has tripled for the next two stations down the line since 2012 and dropped considerably in Coryton. I can think of no demographic changes that would have caused such a shift - perhaps it is due to the increase in time since the zonal system was publicised and that as time goes on fewer and fewer people are aware of it.

 

In any case, while the trains have become busier in the rush hour over that time, I really do not think that they have become three times busier, so I'm not sure how seriously to take the figures.

Edited November 6, 2018 by Coryton

[Derekl]

I traveled the Wick line in June last year on a Spirit of Scotland pass, issued at New Street, so not likely to assist the farther North line figures. Looking back on my notes, I see I thought it a pleasant journey, scenery attractive but without the spectacles of the Kyle line or that from Glasgow - Fort William. The journey is pleasant and relaxed, not least because the trains are hardly overcrowded (the Friday 0834 off Wick had an estimated 20 passengers with 3 crew - driver, guard and refreshment trolley attendant). More got on as we traveled south, but the train was never very full. Some also got off at intermediate stations, supporting an argument above.

 

It is clear that you can do the journey more quickly by car - indeed the proprietor of the hotel I stayed in in Wick was impressed that I was using the train (well, that was the whole idea) and bemoaned the fact that not that many do because of the time factor.

 

I see my notes say that these lines have been "guaranteed" by the Scottish government, presumably on the basis of some research I did at the time, so it may be that passenger numbers are not that important as far as survival is concerned. I did get the impression that the line was well maintained and equipped, within constraints - stations are clean and most of the many occupation crossings have telephones - possibly a luxury for 4 trains a day.

[18B]

While looking at ticket prices for the lines, I was pleasantly surprised that a Wick to inverness return was around £34, for a 320+ mile return journey that's pretty good value, 10 mile to £1, beds the question (put on a new thread) what's the highest and lowest £ to mile journeys in the country? Also thanks to the comment above re: rovers, I checked them out and for a fantastic £85 there's a 4 in 8 day unlimited rover ticket, now that is goo value as well,  

[caradoc]

I see my notes say that these lines have been "guaranteed" by the Scottish government, presumably on the basis of some research I did at the time, so it may be that passenger numbers are not that important as far as survival is concerned. I did get the impression that the line was well maintained and equipped, within constraints - stations are clean and most of the many occupation crossings have telephones - possibly a luxury for 4 trains a day.

 

Interesting point regarding the crossing phones Derekl; These are regularly a cause of delay as if they fail trains have to be cautioned over the crossing, which on a single line soon causes late running to mount up.

[caradoc]

There was a mass closure event in 1960 when 20 stations on the Far North Line were shut by BR, although a few of those have since re-opened. As you say Eddie no further closures will happen, and the nature of the line and its signalling precludes any major change in journey times. Perhaps the best that could be hoped for are redoubling Clachnaharry to Clunes and converting Inverness/Dingwall to TCB instead of RETB.