Lockdown’s Last Lingerings - (Covid since L2 ended)

[Nearholmer]

1 hour ago, Jonboy said:

How can it realistically get any tighter for us?

Very good question. 
 

It almost certainly can’t for you as a couple, but not everybody who is going out to work because their work can’t be done from home is doing a ‘short-term essential’ job - many could be furloughed if absolutely necessary to cut virus transmission.

 

I mentioned before the very active ‘light engineering and tech’ sector here, and will give two extreme examples of non-essential activity within that: motor-racing, in that the engineering functions of several F1 teams are based locally; and, the music industry, in the form of a very prominent designer and importer (I think they’ve ceased main production in the U.K.) of amplifiers, a huge international name. Clearly nobody would want to shut those down, but they could, and I’m pretty certain they were shut in the first lockdown.

 

As usual it’s about balance and difficult choices, and I’m probing at whether difficult choices might be being deferred yet again. Of course, I can’t be sure, because, unlike one hopes the real decision makers, I don’t know for sure where transmission is taking place - I’m making an educated guess that is it ‘house hopping’ at least partly via workplaces.

 

PS: if Amazon was banned from distributing pointless consumer goods, that would probably allow 80% of their workforce, and a load of delivery guys, to hole-up too. But that raises the question of how gig-workers get enough income to feed their families in that circumstance.

Edited January 10, 2021 by Nearholmer

[woodenhead]

22 minutes ago, John M Upton said:

One issue is that many are still going into work even if they do have mild symptoms because they still need to put food on the table and know full well that employers will say if they don't turn up for work, they will get the sack.  Supposedly illegal but in the lower paid levels of society, labour is cheap and in plentiful supply.

 

Meanwhile many shops that were shut down last time in March are staying open all be it for click/collect or takeaway like services, this still needs employees to go into work to run them and in turn manufacturing and distribution to service and supply them,

 

These business are using whatever they can to try and keep trading otherwise they will never reopen again no matter what promises the Government make about support which many no longer believe.  

 

In the end, bills need to be paid, food needs to be put on the table and as far as possible within the restrictions, people are having through no choice of their own to continue as best as they can as normal.

You'd be surprised how some organisations in official sectors expect some of their mildly infected staff to keep going to work, not using tracing apps and using their PPE to keep others from being infected.  Or leave them in a room with a patient dying of Covid but with lesser PPE which leads to them being infected not to mention the rest of the ward and other staff.

 

Digitrains have had to close due to a staff member becoming infected, I hope they get well soon and the rest of the staff remain well.

[hayfield]

52 minutes ago, 3rd Rail Exile said:

I concur totally - there's not much more some of us can stop doing! 

 

I'm single and retired, and have pretty much given up on exercise.  I leave my flat only to go to the local supermarket to buy food and other essentials. 

 

The only things I could realistically do to tighten things up are: 

• Do food shopping on-line, but I've taken the conscious decision not to use up a delivery slot that could be better used by someone who is shielding, or otherwise unable to get to the shops. 
• Stop ordering non-essentials online, in an attempt to reduce the movements of the delivery drivers.  But the non-essential items are (in my view) necessary for my sanity-sustaining modelling hobby... 

 

You are doing what is asked, as do many other folks, but there are large groups who fail to do as yourself.

 

I think we should all exercise when we can (providing its safe to do so) at this time of the year as there are many days when its too wet. Shop at less busy times and use hand gel when offered

 

We are luck we have a hobby and forum to fall back on, keep mentally active

[Reorte]

47 minutes ago, Oldddudders said:

I think you guys are, in effect, answering your own question. Basically you are doing what Government and its advisers ask. But plenty of others no doubt aren't. The 'entitled' section of society always carries on doing as it likes until physically stopped, and there aren't the resources to do that in any measurable way. Covid-fatigue, i.e. boredom with being constrained by regulations, has led to greater chance of such people going about their lives as usual - at the very time the new strain makes such 'rebellion' even more dangerous. 

That does raise the question about whether or not any further tightening will merely cause more hardship, if most of the spread is caused by people ignoring existing restrictions. If more restrictions will be brought in they have to consider whether the reduction in transmission they're likely to achieve outweighs even more people getting annoyed with them and ignoring them - we can condemn that but it's inevitable human nature that it happens.

 

Whether or not more jobs that can't work from home are suspended or not will make a difference probably depends what most of those jobs look like. I'm in an office where quite a large proportion, but not everyone, can work from home, so everyone has been spread out. I assume the same's true for quite a few. But if you've got a place where two people are having to work side-by-side on the same piece of equipment the risks are going to be higher. How many of both are there? (I've no idea).

[relaxinghobby]

On 08/01/2021 at 15:41, vaughan45 said:

 

 

Se facciate niente di errato non avete niente temere, se avete qualcosa nasconderlo persino siete qui.

 

Google Translate gives this translation..

If you do anything wrong you have nothing to fear, if you have something to hide it you are even here.

 

How close is it to the intended meaning ?

 

 

 

[boxbrownie]

32 minutes ago, Nearholmer said:

 

 

PS: if Amazon was banned from distributing pointless consumer goods, that would probably allow 80% of their workforce, and a load of delivery guys, to hole-up too. But that raises the question of how gig-workers get enough income to feed their families in that circumstance.

Oh no don’t do that, we have been in isolation since March, and Amazon has been our lifeline to items just to keep the household running and repaired, just silly things such as brushes, drain cleaner, repair hardware like hinges, locks, handles, screws etc etc....I am surprised just how much silly little things I have needed to order just to do small repairs and maintenance around the house and garden over the year. We even buy our toilet tissues and kitchen rolls via Amazon as they have ALWAYS been in stock (usually direct from the manufacturer) via Amazon.

[Nearholmer]

I would post a petty-minded chap with a clipboard and a toothbrush moustache in the warehouse, deciding whether people really need the things they are ordering, and binning their orders if not. 

 

 

[Dagworth]

47 minutes ago, Nearholmer said:

PS: if Amazon was banned from distributing pointless consumer goods, that would probably allow 80% of their workforce, and a load of delivery guys, to hole-up too. But that raises the question of how gig-workers get enough income to feed their families in that circumstance.

Would that not also put toy train shops selling toy trains by mail order into the same position? 
 

Andi

[Oldddudders]

We have been warned that the mental health of the population at large is being impaired - to a different degree among each of us, of course. So the new iPhone cover from Amazon that Hitler decides is spurious, is actually cheering up someone on the edge.  

 

This is Wisdom of Solomon stuff - and then some. 

[boxbrownie]

12 minutes ago, Nearholmer said:

I would post a petty-minded chap with a clipboard and a toothbrush moustache in the warehouse, deciding whether people really need the things they are ordering, and binning their orders if not. 

 

 

Well if you’ve nothing to do........

[Nearholmer]

Joking aside: there is an emerging working assumption in this thread that continuing spread of the beast is the result of people bucking the the rules.

 

Some are bound to, and that has to be factored-in, because in practice it can’t be policed-out, but I honestly believe that it is possible to stay completely within the letter of the law, and 99% of the spirit of the guidance, and for the new variant to ‘house hop’ very effectively. And, a load of eminent scientists are saying the same.

 

So, lock down tighter, or have continuing spread threatening hospital overload. Trigger moment dependent upon how imminent overload is - and if HMG can be trusted to read the numbers closely and act decisively.

[boxbrownie]

Trust me, the can of slipper deodorant I ordered last week Mrs BB said was very necessary 

[Nearholmer]

2 minutes ago, boxbrownie said:

Well if you’ve nothing to do........

I shall cultivate my ‘tache forthwith.

[boxbrownie]

1 minute ago, Nearholmer said:

Joking aside: there is an emerging working assumption in this thread that continuing spread of the beast is the result of people bucking the the rules.

 

Some are bound to, and that has to be factored-in, because in practice it can’t be policed-out, but I honestly believe that it is possible to stay completely within the letter of the law, and 99% of the spirit of the guidance, and for the new variant to ‘house hop’ very effectively. And, a load of eminent scientists are saying the same.

 

So, lock down tighter, or have continuing spread threatening hospital overload. Trigger moment dependent upon how imminent overload is - and if HMG can be trusted to read the numbers closely and act decisively.

We will only be able to judge that if the lockdown gets tighter in future stages.......

[woodenhead]

1 minute ago, Dagworth said:

Would that not also put toy train shops selling toy trains by mail order into the same position? 
 

Andi

And for me that would be a step too far and I will emigrate to a country without Covid......

 

In reality, how many people work closely in an Amazon warehouse, they are doing a lot of automation and if Boston Dynamics are anything to go by, even stacking crates will soon be done by robots.

 

Retail shops are where it becomes difficult because of the mix of the general public with staff and trying to keep everyone apart as they mooch around the shops, but that isn't possible now.

 

And I do worry that gig worker do not have the furlough protection, I was thinking this morning, all the attractions that are closed that used summer casuals - who helped them when Alton Towers and such like were closed - if you're not an employee then you cannot be furloughed.

 

I remember in the autumn going to a local beauty spot, a couple of miles from home, it was mayhem, with everything else shut everyone had descended on it - there was nowhere to park, all the paths were full of people walking, some of the paths were narrow and we're all there mixing at close quarters.  On New Years day we went to another similar spot, also full of people, really didn't like it, but then having lots of people around annoys me generally.

[chrisf]

57 minutes ago, Nearholmer said:

PS: if Amazon was banned from distributing pointless consumer goods, that would probably allow 80% of their workforce, and a load of delivery guys, to hole-up too. But that raises the question of how gig-workers get enough income to feed their families in that circumstance.

A friend of mine works for Amazon, managoing liaison with third party vendors.  He has been working twelve hour days for six days a week  and might possibly welcome some time to himself.

 

Chris 

[Neil]

 

I wonder if the current wave of infections, hospitalisations and deaths are the results of allowing mixing at Christmas with the raised expectations and confusing messages that went with it. Of course now that we have such a large number of cases it'll be far harder to bring them down.

 

15 minutes ago, Nearholmer said:

Joking aside: there is an emerging working assumption in this thread that continuing spread of the beast is the result of people bucking the the rules.

 

Some are bound to, and that has to be factored-in, because in practice it can’t be policed-out, but I honestly believe that it is possible to stay completely within the letter of the law, and 99% of the spirit of the guidance, and for the new variant to ‘house hop’ very effectively. And, a load of eminent scientists are saying the same.

 

So, lock down tighter, or have continuing spread threatening hospital overload. Trigger moment dependent upon how imminent overload is - and if HMG can be trusted to read the numbers closely and act decisively.

 

Some of the problem will undoubtedly be that 1% gaming the spirit of the guidance. Many will try to do as much as they can to not catch and spread the virus but, like in every other aspect of life, some will try to get by with the minimum compliance. This is where clarity of message is important and part of that clarity is to remove exemptions. I could see a bit of tightening up around support bubbles.

 

[vaughan45]

1 hour ago, relaxinghobby said:

 

Se facciate niente di errato non avete niente temere, se avete qualcosa nasconderlo persino siete qui.

 

Google Translate gives this translation..

If you do anything wrong you have nothing to fear, if you have something to hide it you are even here.

 

How close is it to the intended meaning ?

 

 

 

If you've nothing wrong you have nothing to fear, if you have something to hide you shouldn't be here

[john new]

24 minutes ago, woodenhead said:

... snipped ....

 

And I do worry that gig worker do not have the furlough protection, I was thinking this morning, all the attractions that are closed that used summer casuals - who helped them when Alton Towers and such like were closed - if you're not an employee then you cannot be furloughed.

 

I remember in the autumn going to a local beauty spot, a couple of miles from home, it was mayhem, with everything else shut everyone had descended on it - there was nowhere to park, all the paths were full of people walking, some of the paths were narrow and we're all there mixing at close quarters.  On New Years day we went to another similar spot, also full of people, really didn't like it, but then having lots of people around annoys me generally.

What has surprised me regarding the issues of the self employed/gig workers and furlough , no grant aid etc.  is HMG should know via tax and national insurance contributions and the like what people earn PAYE/declare. 

Re beauty spots, we are extremely lucky enough that work brought us to live at the coast in what is now an internationally recognised World Heritage Site. The crowds do get thickish here on the island but, even currently without the massive influx of summer tourists, if only a % of the 10k island  residents decide either a walk at the Bill or down on the Chiswell  Esplanade is their exercise answer - on a sunny day it gets (over?) crowded. (Monday was like that). All within guidelines.

 

What a lot argue would be good down here is stopping second homers occupying, I concur to a point; not if they come once and stay put but definitely if they are still commuting for just weekends. That has been alleged but I have no personal proof it is true.

[darrel]

It would help if there were not so many selfish / stupid people out there. It is against the law to make non essential journeys on public transport. Yet I keep seeing large groups of drunk teenagers roaming the rails using trains as a mobile youth club. Not a facemask in sight. And not a BTP officer in sight, not that they evern turn up when you ask for them. 

[Reorte]

51 minutes ago, Nearholmer said:

Joking aside: there is an emerging working assumption in this thread that continuing spread of the beast is the result of people bucking the the rules.

 

Some are bound to, and that has to be factored-in, because in practice it can’t be policed-out, but I honestly believe that it is possible to stay completely within the letter of the law, and 99% of the spirit of the guidance, and for the new variant to ‘house hop’ very effectively. And, a load of eminent scientists are saying the same.

 

So, lock down tighter, or have continuing spread threatening hospital overload. Trigger moment dependent upon how imminent overload is - and if HMG can be trusted to read the numbers closely and act decisively.

People who stand out are usually the ones bending or breaking the rules and with the size of the population it's easy enough to see some of them even if it's a small proportion, so I believe that you're right and that most stay at least within the spirit (which can sometimes involve going beyond the letter). Are those 1% a spark that then spreads elsewhere, making restrictions that would otherwise work less effective?

 

Since I live on my own (without a bubble) my perception of what everyone else is doing might be a little biased, is there still more household mixing than I'd expect? The only time I encounter others is at work, where where everyone is is managed, and at the supermarket, where I obviously don't spend a lot of time but where people are behaving pretty much as normal, unlike during the first lockdown. Oh, and I've seen some suspiciously large groups when out for a walk, more than two adults and some children.

[boxbrownie]

52 minutes ago, john new said:

What has surprised me regarding the issues of the self employed/gig workers and furlough , no grant aid etc.  is HMG should know via tax and national insurance contributions and the like what people earn PAYE/declare. 

Nail on the head there......

[John M Upton]

Still a fair few slightly sheepish looking long distance travellers with suitcases about.  Where are they going?!?

[Nearholmer]

1 hour ago, Neil said:

wonder if the current wave of infections, hospitalisations and deaths are the results of allowing mixing at Christmas

If you look at the graphs, they suggest to me that Christmas didn’t make much difference in SE, E and London, where household mixing was banned, although a bit of it doubtless happened. The case numbers appeared to pause a bit for a couple of days, I think because of a pause in testing of a pause in reporting, then carried on upwards.

 

The point is that the rise in cases, and to some degree case rates, continues despite lockdown as presently constituted, Christmas cancelled etc.

[john new]

6 minutes ago, boxbrownie said:

Nail on the head there......

My point was perhaps unclear. I know of self-employed people in the entertainment sector who are getting zero offered despite the fact the government has the information available to calculate a figure for what they have declared they were earning, or for paid employees even casuals, that which employers should have recorded as having paid them. True, those who have under declared and worked off the books would take the consequences but that was their gamble at the time.