Lockdown’s Last Lingerings - (Covid since L2 ended)

[08221]

5 hours ago, adb968008 said:

Just before London lockdown I was on the M40 and saw a blue light procession of 15-20 ambulances heading north. I wonder if that explains it.

 

I saw something very similar on the M5 heading north at junction 2 (Oldbury) one morning a couple of months ago.

[andyman7]

6 hours ago, adb968008 said:

Fair enough.

I feel strongly about it.

Respiratory diseases are horrible, and you can take mitigation's to avoid them.

Imho mitigations are a responsible course of action, whatever the odds are.

 

Personally I think the government approach has been slow and minimal, which is why I think it is much worse here than other countries. Whats worse is its possible to have insights to possibilities of whats coming without being a scientist. Then having to live it around you, ive seen more ambulances this year than ive ever seen. I accept many peoples risk tolerance is much higher than mine. What frustrates me, is their high risk threshold, by default increases my risk whether I like it or not.

Other countries are much more respectful and responsive of this virus, why is that ?  
 

The only reason I see is economic, but the economic cost of covid is likely to 100year “war” bonds, hopefully mutualised and inflated away into the future, 1% on property sales. Every government is in a similar position and will want to cash in on that, so its nebulous... so why are we sacrificing people ?

 

 

When the pandemic is past, there will no doubt me extensive studies about which responses worked and which didn't. Observation suggests that the UK has had similar outcomes to Spain, Italy, France, Belgium and possible Sweden. I'm as uncomfortable with those that claim UK is the worst just because they live here and don't like what's happened as I am with those that trumpet so-called 'British execptionalism' without any evidence.

There are clear lessons from a number of the Asian nations but they have the benefit of having had experience of SARS/Bird Flu. In that sense the UK has acted in line with human behaviour throughout history by not paying heed to events far away and/or long ago. If there is any benefit to the pandemic, it will be hopefully to finally make the economic and human case for funding better health and social care. We must not forget that the health services has hit or exceeeded capacity nearly every winter for years. Covid is bringing it to breaking point because it can barely cope even without it at this time of year.

[boxbrownie]

2 hours ago, rocor said:

 

This lesson has been learned and remembered.

 

Do not kiss anyone with your mask on, because you will set them alight.

My kisses have been setting girls alight for many years.......

 

[gordon s]

You’re lucky, I can’t remember that far back......

[rockershovel]

3 hours ago, Nearholmer said:

To me the speed and efficiency with which the Nightingale hospitals popped-up always suggested that they were part of a ‘pandemic ‘flu contingency plan’, which was, quite logically, enacted once the near-certainty of the U.K. copping this one sunk in.

 

But, equally logically, they seem to have been specified to aid in a ‘flu pandemic, and aren’t quite the right tool for treating people afflicted by this particular bug. Not equipped as needed, and impossible to staff to meet the particular needs.
 

Personally, I don’t blame anyone for (a) not foreseeing the exact needs of this pandemic, or (b) enacting the pre-existing contingency plan in precautionary mode.

 

 

 

The “Nightingale” hospitals were derived from the temporary hospitals recommended by the Cygnus report https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/uk-pandemic-preparedness/annex-a-about-exercise-cygnus which was, indeed, based upon a hypothetical flu pandemic (these being much the most common form of pandemic). 

 

Temporary holding wards of this sort are common in such pandemics (there are numerous photos extant of service personnel, in particular, in temporary wards in warehouses in U.K., for some reason). Flu patients typically require only general nursing care and few precautions are taken to prevent cross-infection, since effective vaccines are well known and can be rapidly administered, if they have not already been given in routine medical care.

 

There will be a considerable number of hard questions to answer in the aftermath, I dare say. 

[Jonboy]

No doubt all locked up nice and tidily in a public enquiry that costs a few billion quid, takes 8 years, 3 heads quitting due to a conflict of interest and reports shortly after a general election.....

[Nearholmer]

Well, the stats are beginning to catch-up after Christmas, and it looks as if rates in our city might have peaked just shy of 1000/100k.week on 23rd December, fallen to <800/100k.week, then rebounded to c900/100k.week.

 

But, I'm a bit sceptical about whether the peak-fall-rebound is genuine, because all the changes that might affect case rate occurred within 24hrs 18/19th December: school term ended; some local 'office' workplaces shut for the holiday; and, we swiftly moved Tier 2-3-4. A mere four days seems a very short time for that lot to have made much real difference - my gut feel is that people chose not to get tested on Christmas Eve, Christmas Day, and Boxing Day, or that postal testing went into hiatus, giving a "false dip" when what has really happened is a plateauing.

 

All families of secondary school children were asked to get tested, which I thought might cause the rate to carry on going up for a fair few days as that process revealed asymptomatic cases, so either: many have been tested, and the results were negative (as they were in our case, and for all my son's pals' families); many haven't got tested yet, in which case there might, or might not, be a still-submerged issue.

 

Meanwhile, the published figures for hospital occupancy are ages out of date.

 

I hope to goodness somebody in authority has access to the detailed underlying data, and can make head or tail of this lot, because somebody has to decide what to do next based on it!

 

 

Edited December 29, 2020 by Nearholmer

[Hroth]

12 hours ago, Nearholmer said:

I hope to goodness somebody in authority has access to the detailed underlying data, and can make head or tail of this lot, because somebody has to decide what to do next based on it!

 

They'll probably panic tomorrow and promote all the remaining Tier 1/2 regions into Tier 3 on Thursday, with an option to make Tier 4 the next step for everyone not yet in it.

 

Happy new year, eh?

 

08:20 30/12

 

I see the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine has now been approved for UK use.  It should enable a more flexible roll-out to the general population.

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55280671

 

 

Edited December 30, 2020 by Hroth
Update

[lapford34102]

AstraZeneca jab approved however there appears to be a change of delivery strategy with people getting one dose than another at a later date, 12 weeks, rather than the 3 weeks. (BBC News) Having read through the CDC docs on the Pfizer one it's clear from that the 3 weeks gap between doses is a minimum rather than a specific target and the 2nd dose can be longer and guessing Zeneca jab is same.  Given the present situation can understand why they would want to get more people protected quickly.

BUT I would hope this change is clearly explained by one of scientists, preferably Prof JVT who has done a good job so far, rather than a politician as there's likely an opportunity for the tinfoil hat brigade to have a field day with this and this change will need explaining very clearly.

Stu

[TheQ]

Part of the change was explained this morning, with both vaccines, one jab gives 70% coverage, it's now thought getting more done with 70% success rate, is better than than getting half that done with two jabs and a 95% success rate. Then up to 12weeks later doing the second round.

[rockershovel]

2 hours ago, TheQ said:

Part of the change was explained this morning, with both vaccines, one jab gives 70% coverage, it's now thought getting more done with 70% success rate, is better than than getting half that done with two jabs and a 95% success rate. Then up to 12weeks later doing the second round.

 

It also simplifies the logistics, provides two suppliers rather than one (one of which, can be presented as a British achievement) and gives a workable programme by which a sufficient number of people receive a jab of some sort. 

 

 

[John M Upton]

It also gives the politicos in Westminster something shiny and positive to present (and bury bad news beneath whilst they are at it).

 

Cynical?

 

Err yes, just a bit!!!

[The Stationmaster]

On 29/12/2020 at 12:42, rockershovel said:

 

As a general comment on British professional and vocational training, there is a serious problem - failure to ensure the necessary professional experience, resulting in a high wastage of graduates who miss essential professional development between the ages of around 20 to 27, leave and don’t return. Or, of course, never enter. 

 

It’s interesting to note that the press are already beginning to refer to increased levels of nursing staff immigration from, in particular, West Africa, West Indies and India - “The Commonwealth”. 

It no doubt varies from place to place.  My daughter starts as a (mature)  Student Nurse in February but first the trust she works for required her to do a year as a Nursing Assistant before being considered for nursing training  - so she gets a pay drop to become a Student Nurse.  The Trust are paying her uni fees and she will study via the Open University but that is mixed with practical time on the wards etc at the Trust's four hospitals.

 

The elective surgery orthopaedic ward she has been on  was closed on Boxing Day because the Trust stopped that surgery early last week and all of the staff from that ward have been transferred to a Covid ward.  By the time she starts the theoretical stuff she'll ja have had plenty of practical experience including an awful lot of what fully trained Nurses had to do in the not very old days.  

 

And what she is doing isn't unusual - one of the Nurses in our GP practice followed exactly the same career course.  Went in for it as a mature student and had to first do the year as a B Nursing Asst before she was accepted for the full nursing training course.

[The Stationmaster]

5 hours ago, lapford34102 said:

AstraZeneca jab approved however there appears to be a change of delivery strategy with people getting one dose than another at a later date, 12 weeks, rather than the 3 weeks. (BBC News) Having read through the CDC docs on the Pfizer one it's clear from that the 3 weeks gap between doses is a minimum rather than a specific target and the 2nd dose can be longer and guessing Zeneca jab is same.  Given the present situation can understand why they would want to get more people protected quickly.

BUT I would hope this change is clearly explained by one of scientists, preferably Prof JVT who has done a good job so far, rather than a politician as there's likely an opportunity for the tinfoil hat brigade to have a field day with this and this change will need explaining very clearly.

Stu

Somebody who has been involved with the process was interviewed on 'The World At One' and she explained what has happened during the testing of the Oxford drug when the second dose was given at varying intervals during the trials period.  That seems to have established, by example and by assessment of the results, the intervals being quoted for the Oxford drug.  But there was no mention of similar testing with the Pfizer drug during its trials (but of course its trials were not held in the UK)

[Andy Kirkham]

I notice here https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/30/coronavirus-uk-covid-cases-and-deaths-today that, whereas the number of new infections continues to skyrocket, the trend in the number of deaths is much less dramatic, and looks as if it might be levelling.

 

I wonder if there's any possibility that the new variant, while more transmissable, could be less deadly.

Edited December 30, 2020 by Andy Kirkham

[Nearholmer]

23 minutes ago, Andy Kirkham said:

I wonder if there's any possibility that the new variant, while more transmissable, could be less deadly.

 

We're all praying for that, its what viruses are supposed to do, get better at spreading, but weaker, but I think its too soon to tell, because it takes a few weeks for the bug to progress to the worst outcome.

 

Perversely, though, even if it is less deadly in one sense, it could cause more deaths by simply producing so many "fairly ill" people that it over-loads the NHS to the degree whereby patients who might be saved in ordinary times simply can't be.

 

 

Edited December 30, 2020 by Nearholmer

[Gilbert]

13 minutes ago, Nearholmer said:

 

We're all praying for that, its what viruses are supposed to do, get better at spreading, but weaker, but I think its too soon to tell, because it takes a few weeks for the bug to progress to the worst outcome.

 

Perversely, though, even if it is less deadly in one sense, it could cause more deaths by simply producing so many "fairly ill" people that it over-loads the NHS to the degree whereby patients who might be saved in ordinary times simply can't be.

 

 

I think the NHS is also "learning" and will be keeping more people alive leading to full hospitals and associated capacity issues

[teaky]

Am I mistaken or have I just heard Hancock hide some bad news about the vaccine rollout?

 

The Oxford-AZ vaccine will be available from Monday which is good news but there only seem to be around 500,000 doses.  There will be a substantial increase in availability from the start of February.  I thought AZ had been manufacturing millions of doses 'at risk' which ought to have meant that it was available immediately following approval.

[Hroth]

Hey ho for tier 4/3 from midnight.

[rockershovel]

1 hour ago, The Stationmaster said:

It no doubt varies from place to place.  My daughter starts as a (mature)  Student Nurse in February but first the trust she works for required her to do a year as a Nursing Assistant before being considered for nursing training  - so she gets a pay drop to become a Student Nurse.  The Trust are paying her uni fees and she will study via the Open University but that is mixed with practical time on the wards etc at the Trust's four hospitals.

 

The elective surgery orthopaedic ward she has been on  was closed on Boxing Day because the Trust stopped that surgery early last week and all of the staff from that ward have been transferred to a Covid ward.  By the time she starts the theoretical stuff she'll ja have had plenty of practical experience including an awful lot of what fully trained Nurses had to do in the not very old days.  

 

And what she is doing isn't unusual - one of the Nurses in our GP practice followed exactly the same career course.  Went in for it as a mature student and had to first do the year as a B Nursing Asst before she was accepted for the full nursing training course.

 

When my daughter started her studies (diagnostic radiology) we found that only one of the three colleges we interviewed at, had arrangements for students to complete their clinical placements during their academic period and qualify ready to enter practice. Another, which we didnt pursue, said something similar.

 

One flatly admitted that around 50% of graduates never entered practice, and that if graduates did not succeed in completing their “competencies” within three years, they were effectively unemployable in graduate level roles, being overtaken by following cohorts (because once passed over a couple of times, that became an insurmountable problem) although some settled into roles as technicians. 

 

Thats a great waste of talent, and a significant disincentive to incur substantial debt...

 

[stewartingram]

34 minutes ago, teaky said:

Am I mistaken or have I just heard Hancock hide some bad news about the vaccine rollout?

 

The Oxford-AZ vaccine will be available from Monday which is good news but there only seem to be around 500,000 doses.  There will be a substantial increase in availability from the start of February.  I thought AZ had been manufacturing millions of doses 'at risk' which ought to have meant that it was available immediately following approval.

I thought he said that their was more in the pipeline but each batch had to be checked by the regulator before release(which is normal), but would be coming on stream quickly

[teaky]

18 minutes ago, stewartingram said:

I thought he said that their was more in the pipeline but each batch had to be checked by the regulator before release(which is normal), but would be coming on stream quickly

Ah, that makes sense.  Thanks.  Perhaps I should re-watch his speech via iPlayer (once it becomes available).

Edited December 30, 2020 by teaky

[laurenceb]

Learning n the job was a far better system, some people will never be able to nurse for whatever reason and it is better for  them to find out sooner rather than later

[Nearholmer]

Well, that was a firm blow, no less uncomfortable for being expected: home-school for at least a month, and I'd wager at lot longer.

 

Eldest will cope reasonably (by skimping his work, is my worry), but this really messed youngest up last time around, so I do not approach this with optimism. It will not help her state of mind that my nephew, only a year older, will be able to go to school, because they live about 200m "over the border".

 

I wonder what will happen to children who travel to either the" out of area" grammar school, or the fee-paying school that runs a coach to pick-up here daily, which is also "out of area"? 

 

 

Edited December 30, 2020 by Nearholmer

[adb968008]

Tbh I’m happy schools have been closed.

 

Whilst home schooling isnt for everyone, i’m sure kids would chose having parents and grand parents for decades, as more important than a few weeks away from friends.

you can always earn more money, you cannot come back from the dead.

 

Edited December 30, 2020 by adb968008