Covid - coming out of Lockdown 3 - no politics, less opinion and more facts and information.

[andyman7]

On 24/11/2021 at 16:46, Nearholmer said:

If it’s burning at 1000/100k.week in a particular age group, it would take two years at that rate for everyone in that group to catch it ……. Put another way, I think it can burn fast for months before simmering down, and if acquired immunity decays significantly within that period, it could go on simmering for a very long time.

 

Thats what I meant on a previous posting when I talked about a simmering endemic.

 

I don’t think it implies that a person catching it a second time around is in for a really bad time, they should be able to fight it off without it being too bad, but catch it they possibly could.

Yes, although it is likely that Covid can be caught again and again, over time the immune system is primed to respond better, even if it is a symptomatic infection. The vaccines effectively fast-track this priming. Pandemic are caused by novel pathogens and wreak havoc because there is no inbuilt or acquired immunity. 

[adb968008]

On 24/11/2021 at 16:08, Nearholmer said:

 

It is now absolutely rife locally, especially in schools, and I have both of our two (11 and 14yo) at home showing “could possibly be” symptoms. LFT says “no”, but I’ve just taken them for PCR, because the schools are telling us that they’ve seen a lot of instances of younger children with very mild symptoms (effectively just seeming more tired than usual) testing -ve on LFT, then +ve on PCR.

 

My instinct is that even if this time it proves simply to be a cold, it is only a matter of time before they catch it.

 

I’m just recovering from Covid.

 

For me it started week last Wednesday I was positive on a LFT, and by the end of the day I knew it without needing a test, today i’m pretty much all in name climbing out of it.

 

My wifes had a harder time of it, and she was still down yesterday, it developed to a cough but shes up today though Lost her voice, sore throat, but shes on the recovery path now.

My little one had it, but she barely noticed, maybe 2 days looking pale and being cuddly, shes been bored ever since.

 

How does it compare with Sars..

I was in my 20’s, it knocked me flat out. Unable to lift my arms or even roll over in bed, going to the loo was a long slow crawl. No apetite, coughing. It hit my chest and throat from day 1. Very sweaty and cold chills Sars really hit my chest, it was hard to breathe, and after I recovered it physically hurt my chest just to be outside for a few hours over the next few days..i lost 7kg with sars.

 

Covid knocked me down for a few days, about 3 days shorter. I developed a slight shortness of breath for maybe a day, had extreme temperatures but it hit my nose, it was like a heavy sinus cold, without the sneezing. Blocked, sinus headache and a bit light headed. I never got to the point of extreme fatigue like Sars, nor have I had any impact on my chest at all. I was able to move about, though I felt heavy, though I lost smell, its not yet fully come back. At this point i’m back on my feet and have done so for 3 days as such now.

 

Vaccine must have done something.

 

secret sauce:

 

Lemsip.

This made a huge difference twice a day, within 20 minutes at one point I was sympton free, lasted about 3 hours then it wore off and knocked me down.. amazing reaction.

 

Chinese Spicy chicken noodle Shincup… this saved my life in Sars, After two of these I never went back to bed in Sars. I didnt even realise until i’d had dopedly gone on amazon and unconsciously bought it, what i’d done this week.. At my worst my body just guided me to do it…Ive not had one of these for years, yet it popped into myhead.

 

Anyway.. Friday I had the first.. within 10 minutes I was sweating profusely, it felt like a bomb in my mouth, my nostrils opened.. and since that point Ive been headache free and I could smell in one nostril!

Since then with recovered energy we boiled a chicken leg, thigh bones, with carrot, onion, celeriac and a bit of black pepper, the recovery has not faltered since.

 

The power of chicken broth, or especially Spicy beef noodle… its saved me twice.

 

Covid isnt a cold, but it behaves similar, starts in the nose and tries heading south, and its not like Sars.. it started in my chest, expanded all round and tried to go up.

 

LFT and PCR tests have been in sync, weve done umpteen LFTs all were negative to the point we didnt believe them, over the last few months, hence we were surprised by the sudden positive.. but they've been dead right all along, for each of us inturn it was the indicator ahead of a PCR.

 

Weve volunteered for Antibody testing now.

After waiting for months in a steam drought, Ive had to miss 3 steam workings past my place in one week!.. 2 of which were BML Southbound !!

 

 

 

Edited November 25, 2021 by adb968008

[Nearholmer]

ADB, best wishes for a swift return to full health.

 

More widely: there is a first-class analysis of the U.K. vs European countries comparison and prognosis on Radio 4 at the moment (25/11 at 20:00). Really well worth finding it on iPlayer.

[PenrithBeacon]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/nov/25/scientists-call-for-travel-code-red-over-covid-variant-found-in-southern-africa?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other

[Andy Kirkham]

4 minutes ago, PenrithBeacon said:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/nov/25/scientists-call-for-travel-code-red-over-covid-variant-found-in-southern-africa?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other

 

Eek! Scary!

[PenrithBeacon]

http://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-wise-to-take-precautions-against-nasty-new-variant-b11529-12478859

[Andy Hayter]

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-59424269

[Hobby]

9 hours ago, Andy Kirkham said:

Eek! Scary!

 

In some respects it's also positive, firstly that they've identified it so quickly and secondly because they'll be using the data to modify the vaccines to cope with it!

[beast66606]

7 minutes ago, Hobby said:

 

In some respects it's also positive, firstly that they've identified it so quickly and secondly because they'll be using the data to modify the vaccines to cope with it!

 

Exactly - it was inevitable this would happen, it's how it's dealt with that matters

[Andy Kirkham]

11 minutes ago, Hobby said:

 

In some respects it's also positive, firstly that they've identified it so quickly and secondly because they'll be using the data to modify the vaccines to cope with it!

 

1 minute ago, beast66606 said:

 

Exactly - it was inevitable this would happen, it's how it's dealt with that matters

 

Modifying a vaccine still takes time; you need to arrange trials, organise manufacturing, distribution and deployment. Meanwhile the new variant will soon be at our gates, and whatever security measures are taken, I don't think countries can exclude it forever, especially a country containing a global transport hub like Heathrow.

 

Ultimately I'm placing my hopes on the "Second Generation" vaccines now in development, many of which are designed to protect against a wide range of variants. However they're not available yet and meanwhile, with even scientists talking of a "worst ever" variant with "horrific" mutations, I fear we'll be back to lockdown before long. 

 

Sorry to be so pessimistic.

[Hobby]

Glass half empty vs glass half full yet again...

 

To counter what you said, Andy, the development to counter the Delta variant was done pretty quickly and I see nothing that would change that for any new variant unless you have specific inside info to counter that? Thing is, they now know what they are dealing with, and have the information they need to get working quickly, and they also have the basics all up and running, it's very different to the early days when it was all new to the scientists involved.

[AY Mod]

25 minutes ago, Hobby said:

the development to counter the Delta variant was done pretty quickly

 

I don't recall reading about any changes to the existing vaccines for the Delta variant; it just seems that they were slightly less effective against it but worth continuing.

 

This new one obviously means that changes or adaptation need to be made; that takes time. One can only hope that when it does appear here that everyone can take it seriously and exercise caution and take precautions; I fear that will be very difficult given societal changes that have taken place since July.

[Andy Hayter]

A slight correction @AY Mod at this stage we just don't know whether changes in the vaccine will be necessary.  It is wise to assume they will, but there is currently insufficient data to reach any conclusions.  The virus was only identified 3 days ago.

[AY Mod]

21 minutes ago, Andy Hayter said:

we just don't know whether changes in the vaccine will be necessary.

 

That's true but I was thinking of different approaches too such as anti-viral oral or nasal treatments posited.

[Ramblin Rich]

It's interesting that the UK government have said there will be travel restrictions and quarantine for these areas very quickly. I do wonder why they can react quickly this time but failed to do so on previous occasions. Was it a case of missing opportunities before, or trying to keep routes open for economic reasons? 

[beast66606]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-59426277

 

Quote

 

11:07

Emergency WHO meeting gets under way

Meanwhile, away from the UK, the World Health Organization (WHO) is holding a special meeting to consider the significance of the rapidly spreading new coronavirus variant in South Africa.

Experts in Geneva will decide whether it should be designated a variant of concern.

The WHO says it will issue new guidance after the talks, but has warned that it will take weeks to establish how transmissible the variant is - and whether vaccines remain effective against it.

As the meeting gets under way, a WHO spokesman says the organisation is currently cautioning against imposing travel restrictions and advised governments to apply "a risk-based and scientific" approach.

 

 

My bold etc.

 

It's not like the virus is spread by travel, my mind boggles, err on the safe side and then wind back if not necessary surely ?

[woodenhead]

6 minutes ago, Ramblin Rich said:

It's interesting that the UK government have said there will be travel restrictions and quarantine for these areas very quickly. I do wonder why they can react quickly this time but failed to do so on previous occasions. Was it a case of missing opportunities before, or trying to keep routes open for economic reasons? 

Hmmm

 

My wife also asks, why is it not immediate, why is it always some many days into the future at some god awful time in the morning.  Who are they leaving a window for?

[Reorte]

2 minutes ago, woodenhead said:

Hmmm

 

My wife also asks, why is it not immediate, why is it always some many days into the future at some god awful time in the morning.  Who are they leaving a window for?

Immediate is very impractical.

[woodenhead]

2 minutes ago, Reorte said:

Immediate is very impractical.

Maybe, but so is a allowing in another potentially highly infectious virus when we've just about gotten on top of the current variant.

 

All it ever does is create a panic of people returning from the place where the infectious virus is circulating, and there cannot be that many people travelling to Africa at the moment that it is so impractical to put restrictions in place quickly.

[Oldddudders]

17 hours ago, adb968008 said:

I’m just recovering from Covid.

Thankyou for an excellent witness statement. Such factual but personalised experiences add a great deal more to our understanding than some of the politically-motivated theorising that bedevils this thread. May your recovery, and that of your loved-ones, be swift and complete.

[adb968008]

https://www.nicd.ac.za/latest-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-in-south-africa-25-november-2021/

 

look at how Gauteng stands out from the rest of South Africa… 1950 cases yesterday, next highest province was 132 cases.

Gauteng - Johannesburg/Pretoria area (high international travel area).

but I want to cross compare this statement also from NICD yesterday..

 

https://www.nicd.ac.za/frequently-asked-questions-for-the-b-1-1-529-mutated-sars-cov-2-lineage-in-south-africa/

 

whats worrying is this…

Quote

 B.1.1.529 has been detected in Gauteng at relatively high frequency, with >70% of genomes sequenced (n =71) from specimens collected between 14-23 November 2021 belonging to this lineage. 

this dashboard below shows the spread of cases, there is a huge one day jump in cases on the 24th , which suggests a reaction towards surge testing (hopefully) rather than a sudden trend upwards

https://gis.nicd.ac.za/portal/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/15eb33988f104b73867606c1248578ff

 

I guess those results will show in the next few days if its really widespread, or if its just a variant within all the others.

and encouragingly, existing PCR tests still capture it..

Quote

However, most other targets (including the N and RdRp genes) remain unaffected from specimens tested in over 100 specimens from testing laboratories in Gauteng so it is unlikely that overall PCR test sensitivity is affected. These PCR tests typically detect at least two different SARS-CoV-2 targets, which serves as a backup in the case of a mutation arising in one.

But the key word here is “over 100 specimens”… so its way beyond the 59 cases reported, but thats before the 24ths sudden wake up call on testing.

 

on transmissability, well it looks like a Canadian traveller in quarantine in the room opposite the South African guy has just become the 2nd case in Hong Kong.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-11-26/hong-kong-finds-two-cases-of-new-covid-variant-in-travelers

 

 

South Africa just doesnt have the same levels of resources to throw at it, and its strange to see a small rise from 20-90 cases a day in Gauteng to overnight jump to over 1000.. I cant help but wonder if, it hadnt been for the Hong Kong Traveller being detected, if this would have sparked a response globally at all, but it suggests it has been circulating for at least a couple of weeks, maybe a month or more undetected in South Africa…

 

if the test results over the next few days shows a high % of new variant cases, then sadly chances are it could already be here and transmissibility would be confirmed.

 

The paralells of timescale of Wuhan and its small cluster of flu in November 2019 comes to mind.

 

My quarantine ends tomorrow, Maybe I should celebrate by staying in ?

 

 

 

Edited November 26, 2021 by adb968008

[Dunsignalling]

Travel should be shut down for anybody not already in the air when the ban is announced, IMHO, with formal quarantining upon arrival for those who are.

 

That, however, means maintaining quarantine hotels/barracks in a perpetual state of readiness, which I doubt HMG would be willing to finance.

 

John

[Oldddudders]

18 hours ago, AY Mod said:

That's incorrect - https://www.statista.com/statistics/1105363/coronavirus-covid-19-infection-rate-by-federal-state-per-100000-people-germany/

Interestingly the 'top' states are all from the former GDR, implying something about attitudes. It takes generations to fully integrate, it seems. 

[Dunsignalling]

48 minutes ago, Oldddudders said:

Interestingly the 'top' states are all from the former GDR, implying something about attitudes. It takes generations to fully integrate, it seems. 

Or maybe that distrust of any government becomes deeply ingrained by decades of tyranny....

 

The wall wasn't just physical.

 

John

Edited November 26, 2021 by Dunsignalling

[PenrithBeacon]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/nov/26/vaccine-resistant-what-scientists-know-new-covid-variant?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other