Covid - coming out of Lockdown 3 - no politics, less opinion and more facts and information.

[Nearholmer]

I mentioned earlier that my youngest bro (59yo) had it. He felt off-colour for three days, then very rough indeed for about three days, which he spent in bed, but now seems to be getting over it. He too is thrice jabbed, and he is pretty certain he caught it at a work-related social in the pub about three days before symptoms started to show. He didn’t test positive on LFT until the third day of it, and was still testing very, very faintly positive yesterday, so is still confined to barracks.

[Andy Kirkham]

I've been trying to do a lateral flow test but having swabbed my nostrils I find flecks of blood on the swab. I imagine that invalidates the test but I can't find anything about it online. Has anyone else had this issue?

[EddieB]

5 minutes ago, Andy Kirkham said:

I've been trying to do a lateral flow test but having swabbed my nostrils I find flecks of blood on the swab. I imagine that invalidates the test but I can't find anything about it online. Has anyone else had this issue?

There should be a warning within the instruction booklet that comes with the kit.  It could be that you’re pushing the swab too far.

[Oldddudders]

My right nostril permanently has blood in it in the colder months, has done for years. Neither LFT nor PCR has demurred over my supplying a swab with traces of blood on it. 

 

Invalid samples do get flagged up, so I'm sure things are fine. . 

[boxbrownie]

1 hour ago, Andy Kirkham said:

I've been trying to do a lateral flow test but having swabbed my nostrils I find flecks of blood on the swab. I imagine that invalidates the test but I can't find anything about it online. Has anyone else had this issue?

Presently visiting Son (the Doctor) I asked him the question and like all doctors he was quite in non committal but he basically said the test is looking virus not blood so should be fine……he hasn’t heard of a reason not to take the test because of specks of blood.

[PaulCheffus]

1 hour ago, Andy Kirkham said:

I've been trying to do a lateral flow test but having swabbed my nostrils I find flecks of blood on the swab. I imagine that invalidates the test but I can't find anything about it online. Has anyone else had this issue?

Hi

 

I had the same with one of my ONS tests and it was fine.

 

Cheers

 

Paul

[Nearholmer]

Given that the four countries of the UK are taking quite different approaches in the face of Omicron, I thought I'd try to find out whether that might have anything to do with hospital capacity, ICU beds per capita, that sort of thing. Well, it isnt at all simple to find out! Here is a slightly grumpy summary of the situation as regards discoverable figures from the office for Statistics Regalution, which, TBH, I'd never heard of, but now admire. 

https://osr.statisticsauthority.gov.uk/news/uk-data-on-hospital-capacity-and-occupancy/#pid-scotland

 

There are all sorts of things on-line that get close to utilisation vs capacity, and even tantalising hints about how the NHS does demand and capacity modelling, but I can't find live/recent capacity figures, although utilisation figures are available, and I certainly can't find demand vs capacity projections, which are the really important bit.

 

So, should Sajid Javid be feeling confident, or deeply, deeply nervous? Dunno!

 

One thing he did say in the interview he gave today is that ".....we are working to build hospital capacity.....", which I read to mean that the projections he has show a significant risk that the capacity at his disposal now might not be sufficient.

 

 

Edited December 27, 2021 by Nearholmer

[Rivercider]

17 minutes ago, Nearholmer said:

Given that the four countries of the UK are taking quite different approaches in the face of Omicron, I thought I'd try to find out whether that might have anything to do with hospital capacity, ICU beds per capita, that sort of thing. Well, it isnt at all simple to find out! Here is a slightly grumpy summary of the situation as regards discoverable figures from the office for Statistics Regalution, which, TBH, I'd never heard of, but now admire. 

https://osr.statisticsauthority.gov.uk/news/uk-data-on-hospital-capacity-and-occupancy/#pid-scotland

 

There are all sorts of things on-line that get close to utilisation vs capacity, and even tantalising hints about how the NHS does demand and capacity modelling, but I can't find live/recent capacity figures, although utilisation figures are available, and I certainly can't find demand vs capacity projections, which are the really important bit.

 

So, should Sajid Javid be feeling confident, or deeply, deeply nervous? Dunno!

 

One thing he did say in the interview he gave today is that ".....we are working to build hospital capacity.....", which I read to mean that the projections he has show a significant risk that the capacity at his disposal now might not be sufficient.

 

 

It has been widely reported that around 25 per cent of hospital beds in my area are occupied by people fit to leave, but unable to be discharged awaiting care package, or space in a care home. So certainly all is not well.

A ninety year old relative of a friend of mine spent nine hours waiting in an ambulance outside hospital yesterday, though that did include a visit to the X-ray department.

Field hospitals might be one way of building hospital capacity quickly.

 

cheers

[Reorte]

3 minutes ago, Rivercider said:

Field hospitals might be one way of building hospital capacity quickly.

The bigger problem than physical hospital space is staff, and you can't train new staff quickly.

[Nearholmer]

Yes, any capacity projection must surely factor-in staff availability.

[Andy Hayter]

An interesting comment from the French authorities this evening is that 90% of C19 victims in ITU are currently unvaccinated. 

 

I am unsure quite how transferable that is to the UK population but it may be a good indication.

 

I am also not entirely sure whether unvaccinated means not ever having had a C19 vaccine or whether it means they don't have a current vaccinated status.   Bear in mind that access to many locations is now dependent on a current vaccine pass and that has defined validity from the last injection.

[john new]

3 hours ago, Rivercider said:

It has been widely reported that around 25 per cent of hospital beds in my area are occupied by people fit to leave, but unable to be discharged awaiting care package, or space in a care home. So certainly all is not well.

A ninety year old relative of a friend of mine spent nine hours waiting in an ambulance outside hospital yesterday, though that did include a visit to the X-ray department.

Field hospitals might be one way of building hospital capacity quickly.

 

cheers

A&E waits are so variable it is luck of the draw. I was a walk in to A&E and SAU on Christmas Eve mid evening (not COVID related) - surprisingly only 3 ahead of me and I was in and out in around 2.5 hours. Luckily what could have been something much more serious was traced to an infection and I got a dispensed course of pills. 

 

 

Edited December 27, 2021 by john new

[hayfield]

10 hours ago, Andy Hayter said:

An interesting comment from the French authorities this evening is that 90% of C19 victims in ITU are currently unvaccinated. 

 

I am unsure quite how transferable that is to the UK population but it may be a good indication.

 

I am also not entirely sure whether unvaccinated means not ever having had a C19 vaccine or whether it means they don't have a current vaccinated status.   Bear in mind that access to many locations is now dependent on a current vaccine pass and that has defined validity from the last injection.

 

I think in the past the French had a system based on both vaccinations and tests, now I believe its changed to vaccinations only. Our members in France will be able to confirm 

 

I think it was the BBC yesterday stating the French are bracing themselves for 200,000 new infections a day, though I guess we and others may well be in a similar boat once the figures are  processed, unless that is we have a series of daily revised figures smoothing out the reporting data. I think the BBC yesterday they reported a slight uptake in first and second jabs as more begin to realise the benefits of being fully vaccinated.

 

I see that the booster roll out has been pretty impressive, perhaps this is one of the things is tipping the balance in decision making by the English government, time will tell

 

In the UK I would assume it will be days before the real pattern emerges after the 4 day holiday. Perhaps even it will be found it has actually been a bit of a natural circuit breaker, with families meeting in smaller groups, testing prior to meeting up and keeping away from the shops.

 

In todays papers it looks like Europe is bracing itself this week for a further series of infection rises fuelled by Omicron  

[Andy Hayter]

I can confirm that the vaccine pass (formerly known as a health pass) now only covers those who have been fully vaccinated and/or those who have had a confirmed infection.

 

The vaccination has a defined lifetime and once that is passed, if no booster has been given, the pass expires.  If a booster has been given then the pass is updated.  The pass may be held on an electronic device or on paper.

[fulton]

We are staying in Dusseldorf for now until travel to the UK settles down. Have been out and about on the trams and S bahn today, 100% mask wearing, regular annoncements in german and english, must not travel without covid pass, proof of covid recovery, or a test. Did not see any enforcement but I suspect it would be the normal ticket inspectors who descend on mass on a train or tram, so no one can slip away. My wifes sports club now needs a test result as well as the pass, where we are there are at least two free drop in test centres within a short walk.

Edited December 28, 2021 by fulton
Spelling

[rocor]

19 hours ago, Reorte said:

The bigger problem than physical hospital space is staff, and you can't train new staff quickly.

 

When it comes to Covid, would the staff to treat the sufferers on a day-to-day basis need a full medical training, or just have completed a short intensive course in the treatment of those suffering from this one malady. The wards within a Nightingale hospital would certainly need to be overseen by seasoned NHS personnel, but could in the case of hospitals set up for the treatment of just one disease have those trained with a narrow skill set proving to be adequate to the task.

[Andy Hayter]

23 minutes ago, rocor said:

 

When it comes to Covid, would the staff to treat the sufferers on a day-to-day basis need a full medical training, or just have completed a short intensive course in the treatment of those suffering from this one malady. The wards within a Nightingale hospital would certainly need to be overseen by seasoned NHS personnel, but could in the case of hospitals set up for the treatment of just one disease have those trained with a narrow skill set proving to be adequate to the task.

 

It's been said before but needs to be said again it seems.  People do not die from Covid, they die from other things which covid exacerbates. 

 

So any "minimal" training to prevent such deaths would need to cover; raspatory issues, pneumonia - viral (principally) and also bacterial - heart problems,  Kidney failure, liver disease, thrombosis and other blood conditions.

 

In other words the short intensive course would not be short.

[durham light infantry]

1 hour ago, rocor said:

 

When it comes to Covid, would the staff to treat the sufferers on a day-to-day basis need a full medical training, or just have completed a short intensive course in the treatment of those suffering from this one malady. The wards within a Nightingale hospital would certainly need to be overseen by seasoned NHS personnel, but could in the case of hospitals set up for the treatment of just one disease have those trained with a narrow skill set proving to be adequate to the task.

 

Before they even start training they would need a DBS. Which are currently taking  4-8 weeks. Omicron will be over before they get to the induction phase.

[Nearholmer]

1 hour ago, rocor said:

suffering from this one malady

The trouble with Covid is that it isn’t a simple thing, it progresses in multiple directions.

['CHARD]

3 hours ago, Andy Hayter said:

 

So any "minimal" training to prevent such deaths would need to cover; raspatory issues...

 

Very popular at this time of year with all the Brussels sprout and stuffing consumption. 

[Zero Gravitas]

Big problem at the moment is test availability.  No LFTs at any pharmacy in town, and no knowledge of when any more will be delivered.  As such, it’s even more likely that cases are being significantly underreported.

[Jol Wilkinson]

12 minutes ago, Zero Gravitas said:

Big problem at the moment is test availability.  No LFTs at any pharmacy in town, and no knowledge of when any more will be delivered.  As such, it’s even more likely that cases are being significantly underreported.

At the risk of starting "panic ordering", I found the same recently. However, an online order through the NHS website resulted in a test pack arriving in three days through the post. That was just before Christmas and, together we the few we had left, provides sufficient tests to see us through to the New Year and beyond if we are cautious.

 

Sadly, I thing Boris and Co's current approach will result in a considerable increase in cases in the next weeks, making it more difficult to avoid Covid19. As the impact of the latest variant on the older population is not yet, according to the Government, full understood, I fail to see why they aren't taking a more cautious approach. As a senior  member of the Scottish "health team" said recently, Coronavirus thrives on indecision.

[Hobby]

With respect, they have made a decision, just not the same one as Scotland.

[Zero Gravitas]

29 minutes ago, Jol Wilkinson said:

At the risk of starting "panic ordering", I found the same recently. However, an online order through the NHS website resulted in a test pack arriving in three days through the post. That was just before Christmas and, together we the few we had left, provides sufficient tests to see us through to the New Year and beyond if we are cautious.

 

Sadly, I thing Boris and Co's current approach will result in a considerable increase in cases in the next weeks, making it more difficult to avoid Covid19. As the impact of the latest variant on the older population is not yet, according to the Government, full understood, I fail to see why they aren't taking a more cautious approach. As a senior  member of the Scottish "health team" said recently, Coronavirus thrives on indecision.

 

I should have added - none available for delivery through the NHS website either.  The actual wording was “no delivery slots are available “

 

And I fully agree about the government’s current approach.  It would appear that Boris Johnson is much more interested in keeping his job than actually doing it - and keeping his backbenchers happy rather than keeping the public safe. The consequence will be that the restrictions, when they inevitably come in the new year, will be more severe and longer lasting. Remember that it’s not just about having beds in hospitals- you have to have the staff to look after the people in those beds, and NHS staff are currently dropping like flies...

Edited December 29, 2021 by Zero Gravitas

[Hobby]

Bearing in mind that he went against some of his backbenchers already by using Labour MP's votes to get through his policy your argument doesn't stack up. I'm sure they'll have taken into account staffing levels when making their decision. Can you show me the statistics (not hearsay please) to back your claims about NHS staff, just wondering if there were some genuine figures or if they were coming from Media stories?

 

I'd agree that it's a fine line our leaders have to tread and there are many people on this thread who would agree with your call for more restrictions, however many people were claiming we'd already be in dire straights by now by not locking down long before Christmas and so far we've coped. As I've said before he's damned if he does and damned if he doesn't.