Hornby Tier System- An Update.

[Dunsignalling]

It's probably a valid point that, for established modellers/collectors who adhere to a prototypical theme, their wish-lists are likely to be considerably shorter than they will have been even a decade ago.

 

I don't know how many "R number completists" buying one of everything that comes in a red box, ever existed or if any still do, but they are presumably loaded enough not to bother about matters that concern we less-minted individuals. That should be one stable market, anyway.

 

They will buy up the more obscure releases, from Hornby at least, but we can't really know if they are latching on to the "new boys" as well.

 

A question mark must hang over how we "user-modellers" react to models of less-common prototypes. Many of us have built up considerable fleets of some models, Bulleid Light Pacifics, Black Fives, Panniers, A3's etc. over the years, but few of the more niche models made in recent times seem likely to have generated multiple sales on anything like the same scale. I doubt, for instance, that many people (myself excluded) own more Adams Radials than BR did; I have both versions of 30583 because its 1950s traffic condition and its "prepared for preservation" state straddle my modelling era. Oh, and I come from Axminster, too!

 

As for new entrants, particularly the younger end of the market, apart from Bachmann taking on the Thomas franchise, only Hornby demonstrates any interest in serving it.  That said, insofar as electrically driven trains running on metal rails go, they haven't significantly invested in it for some considerable time. Of course, if you have a dynamic progression of new customers who (by definition) aren't aware of the age of what they are being sold, maybe there isn't much need for new products!

 

The new entrants are, quite naturally, going after markets that are easier to understand. Only Hornby really knows the size of the child market and how significant/profitable it is (or isn't) and they (equally naturally) aren't going to divulge that to the opposition. I doubt, therefore, that any shift in that direction is likely.

 

TBH it's pretty futile we oldies agonising about  what the hobby might look like once we transfer to daisy-pushing-up duties. It's for those whose livelihoods are involved to plan for the medium/long-term future on an unsentimental basis, not us. Yes, what happens to our clubs matters, but that (IMHO) will be decided more by how modellers network these days than their demographic. The trend seems very much towards less-formal groups of like-minded individuals forming and re-forming for specific projects. 

 

The hobby isn't going to die with us, but I also think will it look much different from what many of us are accustomed to rather sooner than we expect. As in other aspects of life, dealing with the Covid pandemic has been a driver of change, but not its source.

 

John

 

 

Edited April 17, 2022 by Dunsignalling

[PMP]

2 minutes ago, Dunsignalling said:

Only Hornby really knows the size of the child market and how significant/profitable it is (or isn't) and they (equally naturally) aren't going to divulge that to the opposition. I doubt, therefore, that any shift in that direction is likely.

 

John

 

 

Bachmann have the ‘Thomas’ franchise. At Bath&West I understand that the range attracted a good deal of attention from show visitors. They undoubtedly would not have bid for the franchise if they didn’t have a shrewd idea of how successful it’s likely to be.

[Dunsignalling]

19 minutes ago, PMP said:

Bachmann have the ‘Thomas’ franchise. At Bath&West I understand that the range attracted a good deal of attention from show visitors. They undoubtedly would not have bid for the franchise if they didn’t have a shrewd idea of how successful it’s likely to be.

Bachmann have held the US franchise for TTTE for some years, so the investment required to additionally serve the UK market should be relatively modest. Their models have always been more OO than HO.

 

What's viable/profitable for them, might not be for anyone who had to start from scratch. 

 

Evidently, Hornby either couldn't afford, or didn't consider it worth their while, to renew the UK licence and retool their range to match the revised look of the TV series characters. 

 

The economics stack up differently if you have both markets.

 

John

 

Edited April 17, 2022 by Dunsignalling

[PaulRhB]

14 minutes ago, PMP said:

Bachmann have the ‘Thomas’ franchise. At Bath&West I understand that the range attracted a good deal of attention from show visitors. They undoubtedly would not have bid for the franchise if they didn’t have a shrewd idea of how successful it’s likely to be.

They probably know how much was already coming on grey imports from the USA plus they already had the large scale license so had actual figures for that too. 

[PMP]

12 minutes ago, Dunsignalling said:. 

 

The economics stack up differently if you have both markets.

 

John

 

You specifically stated only Hornby know the size of the child market and how profitable it is.

That’s clearly not the case.

[PMP]

8 hours ago, Enterprisingwestern said:

 

By continuing to buy the magazine when it has that sort of content in it, after all, the content of a product, be it book, car or whatever is dependant upon whatever people (customers) want and are willing to pay for.

 

Mike.

The customer isn’t continuing to buy the product (magazines) because of that content, (long term use reviews).

 

It hasn’t been in them in the past, and isn’t in there currently.
 

Personally I can’t see a print requirement for it, and it would still get the same old manufacturers, advertising, bias trope rolled out anyway. Anyone who reads the magazines regularly can apply a simple bit of common sense to see the ad revenue = bias bs isn’t true. 

Edited April 17, 2022 by PMP
Spacing

[Dunsignalling]

7 minutes ago, PMP said:

You specifically stated only Hornby know the size of the child market and how profitable it is.

That’s clearly not the case.

It's rather debateable whether the Thomas demographic is purely child-driven, but I should have stated that only Hornby know the nature of the non-Thomas child market.

 

That said, whilst Bachmann has, no doubt, picked the brains of those of their dealers who sold the Hornby range  they will only discover the exact nature of UK demand through experience. 

 

What we can't know, is whether Hornby's surrender of the franchise was a matter for regret or relief.

 

John

[Phil Parker]

10 minutes ago, Dunsignalling said:

It's rather debateable whether the Thomas demographic is purely child-driven, but I should have stated that only Hornby know the nature of the non-Thomas child market.

 

As part of writing articles on Thomas, I started following a few people on Twitter and discovered there is a modest, and very active, adult fanbase for the series. They collect ALL the models and can tell you in excruciating detail which particular episode any one of them comes from.

[PMP]

27 minutes ago, Dunsignalling said:

It's rather debateable whether the Thomas demographic is purely child-driven, but I should have stated that only Hornby know the nature of the non-Thomas child market.

 

That said, whilst Bachmann has, no doubt, picked the brains of those of their dealers who sold the Hornby range  they will only discover the exact nature of UK demand through experience. 

 

John

Are you saying Bachmann didn’t bother counting how many of these they sold?

[Philou]

I would like to add that in terms of spending , I used to buy a lot on the basis of 'Cor, look at that!' but I was rather unfocussed in what I wanted out of my planned model railway. Having decided that I shall have two prototype stations, it seemed logical that I should pay lip-service to running locos and stock that would have appeared (or possibly appeared) on the lines concerned. Being incorrigible, I shall be running from oooh, I dunno, 1900 to 2012 but concentrating mainly on GWR/BR(W) between 1930 and 1955. The end result is that my spending has been greatly reduced as I'm not now buying modern block trains with 15 - 20 bogied wagons - Hornby or otherwise. Will the hike in energy prices further reduce my spending? We'll just have to wait and see.

 

Cheers,

 

Philip

[Dunsignalling]

18 minutes ago, PMP said:

Are you saying Bachmann didn’t bother counting how many of these they sold?

They've always seemed pretty half hearted about it though, which suggests the manufacturing slots for such things might be less remunerative than if they were used for their mainstream products. 

 

I've stopped buying catalogues. Do they still offer such things? I searched on line and could only find three current train sets/packs*, none of which seem to be specifically aimed at children.

 

In any event, as an adult enthusiast, I'm not remotely bothered whether Hornby, Bachmann, or anybody else makes stuff I have no interest in buying. Indeed, if the factories are tied up making that, they might be not  making something I do want! (Same goes for Thompson Pacifics 😇).

 

John

 

* Whisky train, "Station Pilot" and Blue Pullman.

Edited April 17, 2022 by Dunsignalling

[Dunsignalling]

37 minutes ago, Phil Parker said:

 

As part of writing articles on Thomas, I started following a few people on Twitter and discovered there is a modest, and very active, adult fanbase for the series. They collect ALL the models and can tell you in excruciating detail which particular episode any one of them comes from.

I have long suspected as much.

[SamThomas]

3 hours ago, SamThomas said:

I tend to agree about the hobby diminishing to some degree

Maybe I should have added "& expanding in others".

 

It has certainly changed in the decades that I have been railway modelling. as others have said the way we buy models as an example.

 

I used to buy most of the available magazines such as RM & CM, also those that came & went such as MRC then I got to the point of flicking through the pages at WHS to see if there was anything of interest for me in them, buying them that had, so of course I bought less of them. Nowadays I still buy them occasionally, mostly as something to read on a long rail journey for when I get bored looking out of the window. I have no idea how magazine sales have faired over this period.

 

Along comes the internet & there is so much available, but the magazines still sell & i hope that they will continue to do so for many years. I still prefer a paper catalogue to internet pages so maybe time to give start reading the magazines again.

 

Talking to exhibition/show managers the footfall would appear to be down genarally but there are a number of factors at work here such as covid, the costs of travel/entrance & catering costs. Some shows may fall by the wayside or end up as shadows of their former selves, time will tell. Hopefully, as they get going again there will be some new layouts to see.

 

Just my take, based on my own experiences, other will of course differ.

[Porcy Mane]

15 minutes ago, Dunsignalling said:

No tiers, no tears!

 

A lesson for others, perhaps?

 

Tiers for Souvenirs. Doddy knew a thing or two.

 

[adb968008]

4 hours ago, AY Mod said:

Is the hobby shrinking? Is it?

 

Let's go back to pre-2008 crash; how many stockists were there 15 years ago and what was the turnover? Some have gone and there are some new ones.

 

So, if 2007 stockists = x and 2022 stockists (y) and direct selling manufacturers (z) is x ≥ y+z? Even without knowing absolute numbers it's not as clear as a simple trope makes it sound.

 

If that trope has any substance it is as a self-fulfilling prophecy in the prophet's pocket and their disciples' too.

Personally I think the hobby has just gone through some major successful years.

So many sell out models, market acceptance of higher prices, peak prices on ebay and several new entrants to the market.

Thats hardly a sign of decline in my book

 

just some unsolicited food for thought..

Maybe one way to avoid fanboy and axe grinders is to take manufacturers out of the equation

 

perhaps ask the retailers themselves and a survey focussed on those, and including  smaller direct to consumer manufacturers may be useful.

 

Another thought for customer feedback is focus on model features, availability, user experience etc, as granular as desired, and also on era, region, niche etc as it keeps it generic.

 

Gartner reports are excellent for this, but there is no way they would even look at our industry but they do churn out all kinds of reports on all manner of industry sectors and oodles of examples exist in the free domain space to get some ideas that could be used for our hobby.

 

tbh I’d be all over volunteering some time for this if you needed help.

Edited April 17, 2022 by adb968008

[Big James]

Might be worth adding my pennies worth. I’m 33 I’ve been involved with clubs on a minor level but haven’t had time to devote to it since I was about 18. I know a lot of people my age are being expected to work longer hours while the cost of living is rising. I just don’t have the time anymore that I had to devote to a magnum opus that’ll take years to run. I’ve also found myself being a lot more selective with what I purchase. Where as before I had a scatter gun approach and would buy things for projects that might happen one day I’ve now scaled back and will only purchase items I know will get run on my layouts. 

People not involved in the hobby are interested though. In my last house my layout was on one wall of the living room and you’d be surprised how many people would comment. With even a couple asking to have a go.

 

But on the other a couple of my friends who are also involved in the hobby don’t go to shows or model shops preferring to use YouTube and online shopping. And that’s the way I fear the hobby is heading. 
 

thank you for taking the time to read though. Tbh it’s just my opinion and I’m just a simple railway modeller. 
 

Big James

[AY Mod]

19 minutes ago, Big James said:

lot of people my age are being expected to work longer hours while the cost of living is rising. I just don’t have the time anymore that I had 

 

You've raised a perspective which is just as, if not more, relevant than the price of an individual product.

[Dunsignalling]

2 hours ago, adb968008 said:

 

Personally I think the hobby has just gone through some major successful years.

So many sell out models, market acceptance of higher prices, peak prices on ebay and several new entrants to the market.

Thats hardly a sign of decline in my book

 

 

Sell out models may seem like a good thing, but it's clear that has, at least to some extent, been achieved by "engineering" batch sizes. If Hornby get the supply/demand calculation right with the first run, the follow-up releases tend to linger (especially where the first lot hasn't completely sold out before they arrive). Where those sell quickly, it's generally a sign that the first lot could have sold substantially more. Not a complaint, just a fact of life. 

 

If I miss out on a first run Item I want, I may or may not bother with a follow up. Depends if I fancy any of the second-run variants. I have been quite successful in picking up what I really wanted for modest prices at swapmeets a couple of years down the road, after any eBay frenzy has died down. 

 

Acceptance of higher prices is another fact of life, but, lots of us had spare money swilling about during lockdown that we were unable to spend on holidays etc. It'll be interesting to see if the model railway "boom" continues now we are "allowed out again" and the general economy is tightening significantly. 

 

The new entrants are very welcome, and may be a greater threat to established players than the latter yet appreciate. My pre-orders from the "new boys" are already more than double those for Hornby and Bachmann combined. 

 

I definitely consider the market is changing, and whilst there clearly is an up-turn, especially in the higher-tech area, I don't think that's happening across the board.

 

In my own case, a couple of years ago, when there weren't new releases I actually wanted, I would often buy attractive items that would see little use or end up in my display cabinet. Now, if there's nothing I really want, I just don't buy. I know enough others who are doing the same for it to be a potential worry for those whose livelihoods rely on us disposing of our disposable income! Hopefully for the trade, the strong growth evident in the "all the bells and whistles" end of the market will compensate for much greater purchasing selectivity that is happening elsewhere.

 

So, no overall decline, but I suspect the strong growth, where it is happening, may be masking something of a downturn among those of us who are spending significantly less despite individual models having risen in price by 20% or more over the past year...

 

John

Edited April 17, 2022 by Dunsignalling
Repitition

[adb968008]

17 minutes ago, Dunsignalling said:

Sell out models may seem like a good thing, but it's clear that has, at least to some extent, been achieved by "engineering" batch sizes. If Hornby get the supply/demand calculation right with the first run, the follow-up releases tend to linger (especially where the first lot hasn't completely sold out before they arrive). I those sell quickly, it's generally a sign that the first lot could have sold substantially more. Not a complaint, just a fact of life. 

 

If I miss out on a first run Item I want, I may or may not bother with a follow up. Depends if I fancy any of the second-run variants. I have been quite successful in picking up what I really wanted for modest prices at swapmeets a couple of years down the road, after any eBay frenzy has died down. 

 

 

Agree, though conversely a sell out is a good thing, but trying to overcook it too soon can be a bad thing.

Eg.. some examples,  which i’d say demonstrate why its hard…no right or wrong answer..

 

class 71/k1’s… too many too soon… still with us 8 years later (dont accountants ever write stuff off ?).. I doubt we will ever see these re-released in the next decade.

 

Pecketts.. Initial trio blew the charts, but an elongated delay, followed by several have some what sated this market.

 

Clan.. Holy Grail, fantastic s/h prices, for nearly a decade, long sought after, requested every year… then two more arrived and plop.. after a year, its slowing coming to the bargain sales. (dont blame the green running plate.. its an excuse, and easy fix).

 

Edited April 17, 2022 by adb968008

[JohnR]

Its difficult to ascertain the size of the UK market. But if we were to take the reported turnover of Hornby and Bachmann, its clear that either the total market has reduced, or they have both lost market share. 

 

Hornby in 2007 was £55.7m, in 2020 prices thats £79m - while they actually reported £48.5m

Bachmann was £11.5m, which in 2020 prices is £16.3m - they actually reported £13.1m.

 

Of course, not all of Hornby's turnover was model railways, but then Bachmann have diversified too. 

[Dunsignalling]

28 minutes ago, adb968008 said:

Agree, though conversely a sell out is a good thing, but trying to overcook it too soon is a bad thing.

Eg.. some examples,  which i’d say demonstrate why its hard…no right or wrong answer..

 

class 71/k1’s… too many too soon… still with us 8 years later (dont accountants ever write stuff off ?)

 

Pecketts.. Initial trio blew the charts, but an elongated delay, followed by several have some what sated this market.

 

Rocket.. took off like a Rocket, but whilst the follow up is slow coming, the price has jumped and the s/h market is plump.. I’m guessing the excitement may wane towards Lion instead.

Clan.. Holy Grail, fantastic s/h prices, for nearly a decade, long sought after… then two more arrived and plop.. after a year, its slowing coming to the bargain sales.

But if looking at the back catalog, whats the future potential for P2, W1, APT… I suspect the initial excitement will only ever be a trickle thereafter.

 

Yes, and there are quite a few "easy winners" that Hornby should be considering.

 

In my own areas of interest, I've basically stopped buying Bulleid Light Pacifics because all I'm offered is new names and numbers, not variations. There has not yet been a wide-cab loco with a cut-down narrow-body tender, a common combination after the rebuilding programme ended. Going by box codes, both sets of tooling are in the same factory, so why not?

 

Ditto rebuilts of both sizes; a new 5250g BR tender body could revive sales for very little cost. For the rebuilt MN's there are another two tender bodies that have never been done. 

 

I'll give them the benefit of the doubt over the air-smoothed MN as it's still relatively new, but the emphasis has been almost entirely on the first ten years of their service. Only a couple have so far been in a condition commensurate with the rebuilding period.

 

I'm sure there are similar gaps across the board in areas I know less about. 

 

Coaches, the LMS Restaurant car is two decades overdue for a retool and the 60' Stanier CK is a glaring omission from the range. The Gresleys really need a revamp, both to correct their cross-section and provide a more logical selection of vehicle types. A catering vehicle for the GWR/WR is another obvious gap.

 

Wagons, largely being left wide-open for others - I thought the SR cattle wagons were a sign of great things to come and the range of new/retooled brake vans is very welcome, but there's so much more Hornby could, and should be doing.

 

Last, the "all the eggs in one basket" syndrome. Why the heck have they done so many big LNER engines so close together? Those who like them must be hard pressed to afford all they want, whilst those who don't are left with little that appeals.

 

I  wouldn't actually want them to fulfil all my Bulleid wishes on a similar basis, one a year will do nicely.

 

John

Edited April 17, 2022 by Dunsignalling

[stewartingram]

We keep hearing about the present living costs rising, but it seems to have been forgotten that in the past (was it 30 years ago, sometime around the late 70s early 80s?_), we had far far  higher inflation rates. I can't remember the exact time, nor the exact inflation rate, but I know that I really pushed to get a mortgage in around 1972 (it wasn't as easy to do then), got married, and had 4 young children. Then inflation hit, prices went sky high & more, and the mortgage kept going up. But we got through - you just do. And I was still interested in model railways. We've been used to very low inflation for so long we've forgotten how to cope. These things go in circles, I'm sure sooner rather than later it will ease off again, just don't know when.

[PaulRhB]

49 minutes ago, AY Mod said:

 

You've raised a perspective which is just as, if not more, relevant than the price of an individual product.

There’s also those in a similar situation because they or spouses lost their job or hours during the pandemic so budgets were already tighter before the cost of living increases. I’ve had less time but more money covering holes in manpower as they didn’t recruit so spending actually increased because I couldn’t go on holiday. That surge in hobby spending could also make a slowdown look bigger than it actually is depending on which year it’s compared to. 
Certainly now we are seeing an even bigger squeeze on pay ‘because we were supported’ the last two years so there’s a lot of uncertainty that means people will hold back to cover car or household failures. 
This is one aspect where the Bachmann 3 month announcements really don’t help with budgeting. A friend of mine has a very limited budget and might go for a great deal from his stash because nothing is due only to find out a month later that a dream model is announced! Unlikely you say but it happened before Xmas with the Fairlies so it took an understanding family to club together for Xmas. This is how the different policies affect patience vs impatience 😉

Going back to magazines, I don’t think I’ve ever seen so many! In any larger Smiths you have a shelf of these bookazines, then about three shelves of prototype / heritage mags and then another 2-3 of modelling mags, and it’s all trains! I usually buy 2-3 each month depending on content and regularly buy prototype mags on top too. For US there are three to choose from, European ones and Narrow gauge. BRM, RM, MRJ, HM, GardenRail, ModelRailroader and CM are all on my radar each month and I only subscribe to CM. So as none have felt the need so far to go back and compile long term reliability data I’d question it’s relevance when they’d struggle to publish the fixes which the forums do so well with the fast response. 
Sure it would be good to give manufacturers a gentle incentive by winning accolades for most reliable model of the last five years, like the JDpower car survey, but it’s a big job. 

[Big James]

From my own personal finances my partner have had a severe strain placed on ours over the last year. Luckily there is now light at the end of the tunnel. But as a result I’ve had to seriously cut back. If I want new models I need to move old models on, I’m currently planning a new layout while I would love to have new track I’m going to have seriously consider using second hand track and any new purchases while be strictly on a basis of will they he run and do they fit my modelling period. As I commented elsewhere I used to have a scatter gun approach and just buy anything that took my fancy but I’ve had to stop that. 
 

Big James

[Michael Hodgson]

9 hours ago, PhilH said:

I do fear for this, and other non essential markets going forward though. There has always been pressure on household budgets  but it would appear that those pressures are going to be ramped up to levels not seen before, with perhaps no likelihood of relief for a very long time. What effect this will have on peoples’ discretionary spend remains to be seen although it can be supposed that it won’t be good.

 

Yes and no.  A lot of people are indeed struggling financially and that is inevitably going to get much worse.  But there are haves as well as the have nots and whilst the affluent may grumble about price rises, the pay gap between rich and poor is widening and it won't stop discretionary spending by the better off if new models are items which appeal to them because their quality is so much better than it was in the good old days when there were fairly few new models every year. 

 

Before the internet era you could go into a model shop in another part of the country and find models that you hadn't be able to get locally for several years.  Production runs were much larger and greater numbers of retailers held stock with very slow turnover.  Manufacturers have been forced to produce models which pretty much sell out immediately, and to do that they have to produce something that hasn't been done before, or not to the standards of realism sought by the more discerning modellers, or at least not available for some time.

 

Inflation associated with high interest rates is what killed off the practice of holding stocks as nobody could afford the cost of working capital any more.  Western economies are now entering another period of increasing inflation and higher interest rates.  That was beginning to happen already anyway, but first the pandemic and now war in eastern Europe is aggravating the situation.  These problems will clearly be with us for some years to come, but the long term solution will involve greater self-sufficiency in the essentials (energy and foodstuffs) and the return of a more local approach to manufacturing.