Hornby Tier System- An Update.

[PaulRhB]

26 minutes ago, cctransuk said:

BUT I WON'T - primarily because there is little or no scope for putting my 'personality' on them via actual MODELLING.

Oh dear why is modelling defined by stock for some? I love building layouts but get bored building stock except in 7/8ths scale so I choose to spend on that part in smaller scales. Modelling can be any part of the hobby and for many operation is more important than that, many interests cross over so it’s pointless holding up modelling as something so tightly defined. 
 

5 minutes ago, cctransuk said:

The pricing of the latest announcements is simply beyond the means of a rapidly increasing proportion of potential purchasers on modest incomes.

Unfortunate I agree but who’s filling the gap in this sector if it’s so big? The new ones aren’t so far. Others in Europe have taken this path successfully so is it a surprise that companies owned by shareholders are looking this way?
 

5 minutes ago, cctransuk said:

Others of us, with an appreciation of the fact that toy trains have a finite value in the greater scheme of things, simply draw the line and say "enough is enough".

Which is fine and no doubt means 3D printing and kit production will continue to grow if cheap models are gone. 

 

6 minutes ago, cctransuk said:

So be it - let's give it a couple or three years and see if there's been a marked change in marketing policy, shall we?

LGB took this direction over ten years ago and seem to be doing quite well with multiple premium new models over a thousand quid. I’ve not bought any since the focus on collectors but they seem to do fine without me 😉

One reason I was surprised Hornby used the Bassett Lowke brand for Steampunk when it has previously been used for the premium tinplate O gauge under Corgi. 
The manufacturers are evolving whether we like it or not because of their ownership changing. 

[Phil Parker]

28 minutes ago, cctransuk said:

The pricing of the latest announcements is simply beyond the means of a rapidly increasing proportion of potential purchasers on modest incomes.

 

And yet the models sell. But then maybe you know something the manufacturers who are selling them don't. I mean real sales figures can be as important as Internet opinions can they? 

 

30 minutes ago, cctransuk said:

As predicted, such comments are ridiculed here by those in control, for reasons which are well understood by most members.

 

Not the old "the mods are scared of the advertisers" line. It's not true and no matter how often you repeat a lie you know is offensive, it still isn't true. 

 

32 minutes ago, cctransuk said:

So be it - let's give it a couple or three years and see if there's been a marked change in marketing policy, shall we?

 

The first complaint I can find about prices was in a magazine in 1946. Is 76 years enough?

[cctransuk]

1 minute ago, Phil Parker said:

 

And yet the models sell. But then maybe you know something the manufacturers who are selling them don't. I mean real sales figures can be as important as Internet opinions can they? 

 

 

Not the old "the mods are scared of the advertisers" line. It's not true and no matter how often you repeat a lie you know is offensive, it still isn't true. 

 

 

The first complaint I can find about prices was in a magazine in 1946. Is 76 years enough?

 

You miss the essential point; of course they sell, but in diminishing numbers.

 

The producers even acknowledge this - that's why the batches are tiny and, when demand is greater than they predicted, potential customers are dumped from pre-order lists and a certain producer hangs onto pre-ordered retail stock to meet its own direct sales orders.

 

The current production and sales policies will prevail for a while yet - but then we'll see some seismic shifts in producers and product policy!

 

John Isherwood.

[adb968008]

To sort of drag this back to topic they…

replaced reps with an orderform.

Trying to replace retailers with a website.

what are they planning to replace customers with ?

 

Year 5 of “the great turnaround” of Hornby and i’m just not seeing a happy ending here, indeed I've not seen much magic at all the last few years and I think the worst is still to come.

 

just for fun, I looked up how much for a bag of trackpins… nothing else…

 

thats why Hornby needs a retail network, supported by commercial teams who ensure the retailers have not just the glammer stuff, but the mundane that has a high margin, and volume turnover all year around.

 

unless of course, they intend to neglect the high margin, volume turnover stuff thats generally recession proof, and concentrate on high cost unicorns, competing against several other more quality obsessed, lower cost based competitors during a forthcoming great recession and huge hit to spending.

 

Peco, Gaugemaster trackpins £3.50… no p&p from your shop or added to your next mail order box.

 

Hundreds of other run of the mill modelling essentials are also better sourced from your model shop, and other suppliers of which, that customers are less Brand attached for,  do exist.

 

Edited April 16, 2022 by adb968008

[The Stationmaster]

44 minutes ago, cctransuk said:

 

You miss the essential point; of course they sell, but in diminishing numbers.

 

The producers even acknowledge this - that's why the batches are tiny and, when demand is greater than they predicted, potential customers are dumped from pre-order lists and a certain producer hangs onto pre-ordered retail stock to meet its own direct sales orders.

 

The current production and sales policies will prevail for a while yet - but then we'll see some seismic shifts in producers and product policy!

 

John Isherwood.

I think you are conflating two slightly different things here.  Yes some manufacturers clearly appear to manufacture in small batches and that will obviously increase the price for a single item unless costs have been avoided when developing and tooling it.  But how do you know if a batch is 'tiny' when you don't know the size of the potential market because with some companies what they get produced and sell, in whatever numbers, will generally match what their end customers have ordered from them.  If that is profitable then the company will prosper as long as it is efficiently managed and financed and is able to bring a succession of products to the market and those products sell - even in 'tiny' numbers (whatever tiny means?).

 

But I wouldn't mind betting good money that pricing is in many respects disconnected from development and production costs because it has to cover a far wider range of costs.  Hornby have just said, in this week's trading statement that delivery of new models has been delayed by extended shipping times, lack of drivers (by inference in the UK) and of fuel (again by inference in the UK) plus shortage of electronic components and extended lead times have impacted delivery of models.  All of those things cost money because if nothing else the time taken to get any return on investment in a new model is extended apart from some of those things, e.g. shipping, having greatly increased in cost anyway.  So then it doesn't matter how many examples of a particular model are made because there are various costs which don't necessarily relate to that, in fact if more models were made the cost of delayed delivery would be even greater.

 

Coming back to Hornby we don't know how many of each particular model they do buy-in from the factories but they appear to have self-inflicted problems arising from over-selling.  Hence tiers to try to mitigate those problems and create a more logical way of applying rationing.  But on the other hand we also knw they have a stack of inventory of older models sitting in a warehouse costing them yet more money because they had bought-in than they could sell.  So obviously hardly a clever business approach to order so many that you not only fully meet all the demand but then finish up with surplus stock costing you money, year after year.   Which is right - Selling everything you have bought in from the factory and disappointing some people or keeping all the end customers happy but also providing a steady income stream for your contracted warehouse?

 

And like it or not in the end the market, and not moans about price on RMweb, will decide what a company does with its pricing policy and in consequence whether it can afford to stay in a particular line of business.  For all we know Hornby might have a far better profit ratio on, say, Airfix kits than it does on some model railway items and that too might help decide its strategy for the future.

[Enterprisingwestern]

2 hours ago, adb968008 said:

Hundreds of other lower end modelling essentials are also better sourced from your model shop, and other suppliers of which, that customers are less Brand attached for,  do exist.

 

You'll not make a living out of selling track pins and "lower end modelling essentials" though if customers are buying the "higher end" items cheaper elsewhere.

 

Mike.

[Widnes Model Centre]

Grateful to recent posters for highlighting a number of things.

 

We deal with a fairly large number of suppliers, all of whom have had to deal with COVID, shipping costs, the ‘B’ word, fuel, driver shortages etc. As a general all round model shop we stock just about everything a modeller needs.

 

The two major model railway suppliers give by far the slowest service. Keeping on top of stock levels keeps me busy for the greater part of my time.

 

Airfix is a big part of our business model, plastic kits in general are the largest part of our overall business with all the ancillaries that go with the hobby. Good Friday afternoon after closing we spent a few hours just topping up the paints. Then placed an order for paints we needed. I expect them to be delivered on Wednesday, only that late as it’s a Bank Holiday on Monday. Plastic kits take up a great deal of storage space so have to be ordered in shelf quantities. 
 

On Tuesday evening around 7pm, it dawned on me that our usual van delivery would be a day earlier from Javis Manufacturing , my preferred wholesalers, due to Good Friday. I emailed my order and it was delivered at 1030 the following morning.  Nothing is a problem for them.

 

We play Ordering Roulette with another company to see how late we can place an order for next day delivery. They have never let us down yet.

 

A great number of plastic kit manufacturers are based in Ukraine. Our thoughts are with them. We are still receiving goods from those manufacturers.
 

Conversely, an order placed with Hornby can take weeks. Why? Same with another model railway supplier. Monday of this week, an order was ‘in picking’. Nothing received. 
 

None of our other suppliers have Tier Systems, some of them sell direct but actually state… please order from your local shop if you are able to do so. 
 

It is very true that the small items are what’s essential to modellers of any persuasion. We opened yesterday, Good Friday and l think we probably sold more paint than B and Q. Have you tried buying paint from Amazon, eBay etc. We also sold quite a number of rail joiners!

 

Does anyone know what’s happening with Oxford Die-cast/Rail? Rumours that those products may have to bought direct.
Finally with regards to Airfix, received an email recently from a wholesaler we don’t deal with on a regular basis. Price of Airfix supplied to the trade has gone up, but the RRP remains the same? Will be interesting to see how this affects Aldi/Lidl in the Autumn.

[Dunsignalling]

Simple answer. I and a number of friends/acquaintances who already have loads of stuff have reappraised our purchasing habits in the light of the current rampant inflation within and without the model railways sphere.

 

First, I question whether the model under consideration is likely to see any use beyond the first two weeks of ownership. If it's going to end up in the cabinet or back in its box in the wardrobe, no sale.

 

Second; if it clears the first hurdle, is there any good reason to buy more than one (I don't model multiple eras  so won't want SR as well as BR). Usually, no; almost never, any more than two. It will also require something much more substantial than a new name/number to make me increase my already excessive fleet of Bulleid Pacifics. 

 

Any loco with a number beginning in a 6, no sale.

 

I'm having quite a cheap time at present.😃😃😃

 

John

 

 

Edited April 16, 2022 by Dunsignalling

[Matt]

8 hours ago, The Stationmaster said:

I think you are conflating two slightly different things here.  Yes some manufacturers clearly appear to manufacture in small batches and that will obviously increase the price for a single item unless costs have been avoided when developing and tooling it.  But how do you know if a batch is 'tiny' when you don't know the size of the potential market because with some companies what they get produced and sell, in whatever numbers, will generally match what their end customers have ordered from them.  If that is profitable then the company will prosper as long as it is efficiently managed and financed and is able to bring a succession of products to the market and those products sell - even in 'tiny' numbers (whatever tiny means?).

 

But I wouldn't mind betting good money that pricing is in many respects disconnected from development and production costs because it has to cover a far wider range of costs.  Hornby have just said, in this week's trading statement that delivery of new models has been delayed by extended shipping times, lack of drivers (by inference in the UK) and of fuel (again by inference in the UK) plus shortage of electronic components and extended lead times have impacted delivery of models.  All of those things cost money because if nothing else the time taken to get any return on investment in a new model is extended apart from some of those things, e.g. shipping, having greatly increased in cost anyway.  So then it doesn't matter how many examples of a particular model are made because there are various costs which don't necessarily relate to that, in fact if more models were made the cost of delayed delivery would be even greater.

 

Coming back to Hornby we don't know how many of each particular model they do buy-in from the factories but they appear to have self-inflicted problems arising from over-selling.  Hence tiers to try to mitigate those problems and create a more logical way of applying rationing.  But on the other hand we also knw they have a stack of inventory of older models sitting in a warehouse costing them yet more money because they had bought-in than they could sell.  So obviously hardly a clever business approach to order so many that you not only fully meet all the demand but then finish up with surplus stock costing you money, year after year.   Which is right - Selling everything you have bought in from the factory and disappointing some people or keeping all the end customers happy but also providing a steady income stream for your contracted warehouse?

 

There are many factors influencing price - I think another we should recognise is that the big “opportunities” have largely vanished for the major manufacturers such that sales of new items are likely smaller than in the past; consequently dev costs are written off over fewer models. Even for major loco classes I suspect this is true though I don’t have any inside info. 
 

Take the Class 47. I was a bit of a Lima tart and accumulated a fair collection. When Bach and Vi came along the differential from Lima was such that I dumped my Lima and have amassed a fair Bach / Vi collection over the years - in early releases from Bach I was on a “one of each” policy. (Note I was out of the hobby for a few years when HJ launched their 47).

 

Now we have newer 47s which are better still. I jumped in straight away on one and whilst they are lovely, they are not better enough for me to start dumping my old collection and start amassing this new version.  It’s likely I will accumulate a few but more to supplement my existing collection than to replace. 
 

If other people are like me, the sales of these newer improved (more detailed and therefore more expensive) models will be fewer and dev costs will be recovered over fewer units.

 

Although I’ve cited the 47, I suspect could substitute others (66, 37, 20, 24, Black 5?). The apparent discounting on some of these models might suggest sales have been slow.

 

Some manufacturers are deliberately targeting niche models where no competition and it seems to be working. One manufacturer at least has been really clever with targeting niches within a major class that have never been done before which seems to have seen brisk sales on pre-orders - this is classic targeting people who are topping up their existing collection rather than replacing. I know for me this approach secured a number of sales where otherwise maybe not.

 

M

[adb968008]

6 hours ago, Enterprisingwestern said:

 

You'll not make a living out of selling track pins and "lower end modelling essentials" though if customers are buying the "higher end" items cheaper elsewhere.

 

Mike.

when was the last time you went to Heinz.com to buy baked beans ?

 

Do you think Heinz don’t make money out of baked beans ? and in a recession will Baked bean sales perform poorly against rump steaks ?

 

Hornby feels to me like it’s retreating from the public market place… after all you don’t need salesmen if you don’t intend to sell. If they want to become a web retailer then they need to change their range to one that’s web retailable, and to me that’s not “beans” yet were coming to a recession where “steak” sales are going to become very competitive to close as wallets shrink.

 

of course Hornby has more than 57 varieties and is not just a butcher, but a baker and a candlestick maker too.

 

So whatever strategy Hornby is changing, I feel this is just the beginning and much more is to come.

 

If their strategy is to protect steak sales for themselves, other butchers sell steaks too, have lower costs and have more passion in their meat preparation. And If Hornbys beans aren’t competing for space on retailers shelves people will buy other brands of beans instead. Of course if meat is on sale too long it goes bad and the price reduced until it’s binned, beans have a much longer shelf life… as long as the retailer can reliably buy beans.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited April 16, 2022 by adb968008

[boxbrownie]

6 hours ago, Enterprisingwestern said:

 

You'll not make a living out of selling track pins

 

Mike.

They will at that price…..😇

[boxbrownie]

1 hour ago, Widnes Model Centre said:

.

A great number of plastic kit manufacturers are based in Ukraine. Our thoughts are with them. We are still receiving goods from those manufacturers.

And the major plastic kit manufacturer in Ukraine has announced a set of 1/35th Ukrainian soldier figures with an AK47, mobile phone (taking a picture) and a V sign victory salute for posing next to a Russian Tank, you just have to admire their resilience and determination during this war.

[No Decorum]

For those who find that super-detailed models are out of financial reach, there is always Hornby Railroad. Before Hornby went down the blind alley of Design Clever and attempted to tool models for that range, they used old Lima moulds. Lima models were generally accurate, if lacking in features. Most of the Lima products were one-piece body mouldings on a chassis using a minimum of parts. Hornby has improved the mechanisms and the decoration. It seems that expensive and highly detailed models sell well but Railroad models do too. By selling well, I mean selling enough to be profitable.

[SamThomas]

19 minutes ago, boxbrownie said:

And the major plastic kit manufacturer in Ukraine has announced a set of 1/35th Ukrainian soldier figures with an AK47, mobile phone (taking a picture) and a V sign victory salute for posing next to a Russian Tank, you just have to admire their resilience and determination during this war.

Please tell me that's not a wind up & provide a link - I just have to have one of those.

[Oldddudders]

18 hours ago, eldomtom2 said:

And that speaks volumes as to the too-cosy relationship between manufacturers and magazines!

Too cosy? Really? Symbiotic would be a better adjective. Manufacturers benefit from having a recognised platform for product launches - and the specialist press obliges. The press, online and printed, gets good fodder of the sort that many of us relish. Any activity of which capital purchases are part has exactly the same set-up, be it motoring, fishing, photography and a zillion others. Healthy and normal.

[Phil Parker]

1 hour ago, Matt said:

If other people are like me, the sales of these newer improved (more detailed and therefore more expensive) models will be fewer and dev costs will be recovered over fewer units.

 

And this is the problem with this, and many other threads - extrapolating from your own experience and assuming you are a typical customer. Most of us are not, and it's the job of manufacturers to look at ALL the data and make their decisions.

[Dunsignalling]

TBH, the Rule One mob and collectors between them probably account for many more sales than all we "serious" modellers combined.

 

Whilst we may want/need half a dozen Black Fives or thirty-odd West Countries (guilty) they will generally be more interested in something they don't already own.

 

I therefore think that fears that, because all the "low-hanging fruit" have been picked, the RTR trade is doomed to contract, are greatly overstated.

 

John

Edited April 16, 2022 by Dunsignalling

[Dunsignalling]

1 hour ago, boxbrownie said:

And the major plastic kit manufacturer in Ukraine has announced a set of 1/35th Ukrainian soldier figures with an AK47, mobile phone (taking a picture) and a V sign victory salute for posing next to a Russian Tank, you just have to admire their resilience and determination during this war.

Wonder if they'll do a burned-out Russian tank with a Z scrawled on the side to  complete the diorama.

 

John

[Drifter]

1 hour ago, SamThomas said:

Please tell me that's not a wind up & provide a link - I just have to have one of those.

 

 

[adb968008]

5 minutes ago, Drifter said:

 

 

the problem with this image, is the tank still has its turret.

 

I would have thought a tank, minus its turret, and impaled in a field may be contemporary, as would tractors towing tanks, and of course opening rear doors displaying a stolen washing machine inside.

 

Edited April 16, 2022 by adb968008

[Oldddudders]

https://www.mbltd.info

 

[boxbrownie]

1 hour ago, SamThomas said:

Please tell me that's not a wind up & provide a link - I just have to have one of those.

No wind up, it was advertised in one of the kit magazines a few weeks ago.

[boxbrownie]

46 minutes ago, Dunsignalling said:

Wonder if they'll do a burned-out Russian tank with a Z scrawled on the side to  complete the diorama.

 

John

Not been able to find a contemporary Russian tank as yet, but it will be on my list along with the Ukrainian group as soon as I do 👍

[Steamport Southport]

New Project BTR-4E an infantry fighting vehicle designed in Ukraine will be released soon. 

 

https://miniart-models.com/product/37100-ukrainian-btr-4e-early/

 

So it's not just nice little engine sheds they make.

 

 

Jason

[andyman7]

3 hours ago, Widnes Model Centre said:

Finally with regards to Airfix, received an email recently from a wholesaler we don’t deal with on a regular basis. Price of Airfix supplied to the trade has gone up, but the RRP remains the same? Will be interesting to see how this affects Aldi/Lidl in the Autumn.

It's always interesting to hear direct from the retail trade. At the moment, inflationary pressures means a lot of belt tightening across the supply chain, so I suspect that the wholesale price increase/hold RRP is at the end of quite a long chain where every link is expected to take some of the pain.

2 hours ago, Matt said:

 

Take the Class 47. I was a bit of a Lima tart and accumulated a fair collection. When Bach and Vi came along the differential from Lima was such that I dumped my Lima and have amassed a fair Bach / Vi collection over the years - in early releases from Bach I was on a “one of each” policy. (Note I was out of the hobby for a few years when HJ launched their 47).

 

Now we have newer 47s which are better still. I jumped in straight away on one and whilst they are lovely, they are not better enough for me to start dumping my old collection and start amassing this new version.  It’s likely I will accumulate a few but more to supplement my existing collection than to replace. 
 

If other people are like me, the sales of these newer improved (more detailed and therefore more expensive) models will be fewer and dev costs will be recovered over fewer units.

 

 

1 hour ago, Phil Parker said:

 

And this is the problem with this, and many other threads - extrapolating from your own experience and assuming you are a typical customer. Most of us are not, and it's the job of manufacturers to look at ALL the data and make their decisions.

I've grouped Matt's post and Phil's reply because I think they both illustrate human trends and human behaviours. 

The 'classis' model railway market that many hark back to - variously going back to the 60s-early 2000s depending on age - is only such because it is within adult experience. 100 years ago there was no mass model railway market; why is it to be assumed that it is somehow a fault or a failure if in 100 years' time the way things are has changed again?

Society and technology are constantly changing, and a long-established manufacturer evolving with the marketplace is inevitable. There is no doubt that Hornby have made some mistakes and mis-steps and they more than anyone will want to get past this. But trying to reinvent the past will not achieve this.