Cost of living crisis - impact on our hobby

[Andy Hayter]

I think the emphasis of some posters on the very high levels of wage increase by a very few very senior company leaders misses the point.*

 

You work it out.  If there are say 10million workers in the private sector (it's probably more) and say 1000 senior managers get pay rises of 200% - which given what they "earn" to start with is a lot of money - just how much does that deflect the average for the 10 million?  

 

four fifths of sod all.  That's how much.

 

*Not that I think some of these increases are in any way justified you understand.   

[Nearholmer]

43 minutes ago, Railpassion said:

I think the second-hand market is healthy and will dominate in the future. 

Spot on.

 

There is an ideal combination coming, with some people looking to release a bit of cash by shedding stashes, and others looking to buy at less than shop prices.

 

I can imagine some doing both simultaneously as a way of focusing what they own down to that which they really ‘need’ for their layout.

 

 

Edited June 29, 2022 by Nearholmer

[whart57]

1 hour ago, Mike Storey said:

 

Hmm. It would seem the ONS does not agree with you.

 

See section on Sector Specific, especially on the hospitality and warehousing industry, to see what I mean. 

https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/averageweeklyearningsingreatbritain/may2022#:~:text=In real terms (adjusted for inflation)%2C in January to,real total pay growth positive.

 

It would seem the ONS does agree with me. That chart you cite shows that manufacturing wage increases have been flat and while hospitality is rising, that is the seasonal increase as the demand for hospitality services goes up during the holiday season. That's when hours increase for pub workers and others. And the chart shows financial services doing brilliantly well compared to everyone else.

[Colin_McLeod]

On 26/06/2022 at 01:31, Nova Scotian said:

The next day I ended up having to spend the same amount on a pair of work shoes and was kicking myself

 

Intriguing shoe design that lets you kick yourself.  😃

[Mike Storey]

35 minutes ago, whart57 said:

 

It would seem the ONS does agree with me. That chart you cite shows that manufacturing wage increases have been flat and while hospitality is rising, that is the seasonal increase as the demand for hospitality services goes up during the holiday season. That's when hours increase for pub workers and others. And the chart shows financial services doing brilliantly well compared to everyone else.

 

By two percent. As for the others, they are all shown to have risen. Let's just agree to disagree on the rest, because my point is where will the primary market be for our hobby?

 

[whart57]

4 minutes ago, Mike Storey said:

 

By two percent. As for the others, they are all shown to have risen. Let's just agree to disagree on the rest, because my point is where will the primary market be for our hobby?

 

 

Two percent of what though? Given that the percentages are to very different base levels that comes back to the point that the 8% rise in the private sector is a suspect figure.

[TT-Pete]

On 26/06/2022 at 20:57, whart57 said:

Small traders are either on their own or have one assistant. How many people can they typically serve in that time, how many can they have a meaningful conversation with advising purchases or ascertaining future needs? There is a danger here of us punters thinking that because we find it useful to tie up a trader for twenty minutes with a chat about what we'd really like to buy, that the trader also finds it useful

 

At the Bristol show recently I'm standing in a queue for the till with an armful of stuff behind a bloke (buying nothing) having a lengthy discussion with the trader about what type of glue to use. Each time it looked like he was finished he would recap with "So what you're saying is," and rattle off all the options again to the sound of groans in the ever-growing queue behind me. But being British one's "I say, now look here my good man" threshold is quite high...

 

[Nearholmer]

Another chart from the ONS (I can’t find one that shows things in easy-read form back to 2008).

 

 

I read that as saying that until the pandemic, which hit private sector employees hardest, the majority of employees were suffering pretty similar, slow, real wage erosion, irrespective of private or public sector, because over the same period prices rose by c25%, which doesn’t look to me to be equalled by either sector.

 

The fact that the public sector median is higher is accounted for by the fact that the public sector employs a higher proportion of ‘professionals’, notably lots of teachers and medical people, and that a lot of lower wage jobs in public services are actually undertaken by private sector employees, things like rubbish collection, landscape maintenance etc.

 

Of course, within each of public and private some sub-sectors have done better than others, with financial services seemingly doing very nicely indeed.

 

One thing that I don’t think has been mentioned is premium brands, making small runs of very high quality, very costly models. They could actually survive better than ‘ordinary’ brands, by serving the top few % of earners. My father always said that in the 1930s Bassett Lowke was “for doctors and stockbrokers”, which must apply to something like Lee Marsh now.

[Phil Mason]

I feel I have to pass this link on to you guys. I think it's brilliant. It's so good, I could have written it myself! 
 

I've just re-read it and giggled all the way through. I realise I've lived by these principles all my life. 
 

it's about photography, but it applies equally well to our hobby, assuming that you you want to buy stuff (even though that's not strictly necessary to enjoy the hobby). 
 

https://www.kenrockwell.com/tech/how-to-afford-anything.htm

[Nearholmer]

That is mostly really sound stuff, amusing but very true, and although its targeted on affording expensive toys, it’s a practical guide to non-consumerism.

 

 

Edited June 30, 2022 by Nearholmer

[Neil]

8 hours ago, Phil Mason said:

I feel I have to pass this link on to you guys. I think it's brilliant. It's so good, I could have written it myself! 
 

I've just re-read it and giggled all the way through. I realise I've lived by these principles all my life. 
 

it's about photography, but it applies equally well to our hobby, assuming that you you want to buy stuff (even though that's not strictly necessary to enjoy the hobby). 
 

https://www.kenrockwell.com/tech/how-to-afford-anything.htm

 

46 minutes ago, Nearholmer said:

That is mostly really sound stuff, amusing but very true, and although its targeted on affording expensive toys, it’s a practical guide to non-consumerism.

 

 

 

While the above concept of frugality works in some circumstances it fails when all the economies have been made and individuals are in the position of having to choose between heating and eating. When there simply isn't sufficient money for housing, food and fuel there's no scope for economies. See the rise in the use of foodbanks here. Growing numbers have found themselves in this position and it's predicted that this group will only get bigger. 

 

 

[Oldddudders]

24 minutes ago, Neil said:

See the rise in the use of foodbanks here. Growing numbers have found themselves in this position and it's predicted that this group will only get bigger. 

Including full-salaried people like nurses, we were told many months ago, before the present price rises kicked in. Meanwhile footballers drive Ferraris, while their wives dispute who said what about whom in the courts. 

 

And as for Nutty Ken Rockwell, you'd be amazed at how many of his pics evaluating a new camera or lens are of opulence and supercars. And for someone espousing thrift, he is always very energised about Japanese cameras (Canon, Nikon, Sony, Fuji etc) being unnecessarily made in other parts of Asia. That's keeping prices down!

[BR traction instructor]

…as ever, it is an ill wind that doesn’t have benefits of some kind. Such strict financial straits will necessarily see an increase in real modelling/growth of modelling skills as enthusiasts are forced to review what is already in their collection with potential for upgrade/conversion.

 

BeRTIe

[Allegheny1600]

2 hours ago, Oldddudders said:

And as for Nutty Ken Rockwell, you'd be amazed at how many of his pics evaluating a new camera or lens are of opulence and supercars.

That’s because that kind of thing is what his “stupid” people are interested in - and therefore they will pay him for images of the same!

 I actually agree with many of his principles, I have discussed previously that it isn’t necessary to have the latest version of the iPhone, iPad, car, fashionable clothes etc etc 

 

As for the ‘celebs’ you refer to, I am aware of something happening but took zero interest in them. People whose lives are ruled by tik tok, faceachebook or whatever - have no value in the real world.

[HonestTom]

I suspect that for the manufacturers, it will be the big ticket items that are affected most, for psychological reasons. £100 or £200 just looks like a lot of money. If you added up all your unnecessary spending over a year, you'd probably get several times that, but £5 or £10 at a time doesn't feel the same.

 

There are a lot of wargamers and crafters out there who make things on the cheap, with basic tools and materials - many of them take pride in how little they spend, or see it as a challenge in itself. With so many excellent tutorials available online and an increased emphasis on recycling, I could see this approach coming back into fashion among railway modellers. By the same token, I think we could see more people seeing what they could do with older, cheaper, less detailed models.

[GWR8700]

16 hours ago, Mike Storey said:

 

Well, for simply not true, please re-visit your own comment, and tell me exactly how public sector wages have returned to 2008 levels?? To be brief, they have not, and not anywhere close, so the fact that private wages have done so, says it all.

 

I agree to some extent with the rest of your comment, but the fact that "new, improved" kit, from the likes of Accucraft/IMR, Rapido and Revolution, at top sovs, keep flying off the shelves, before they have even got to a shelf, somewhat disproves the more general point you are making. Whether the market will sustain that, given what is ahead, remains an open question.

 

I've looked back at my comment and I don't think I stated anything about public sector real terms pay, I mentioned the private sector.

While that is true we don't know the number of models produced and subsequent rereleases may underperform.

[F-UnitMad]

3 hours ago, Oldddudders said:

Meanwhile footballers drive Ferraris, while their wives dispute who said what about whom in the courts. 

I wouldn't mind the obscene rates of pay for Wendyball Prima Donnas if they only got paid when they WIN.

Losses and draws mean no pay this week, sunshine. You'll manage.... 😈

[whart57]

9 minutes ago, F-UnitMad said:

I wouldn't mind the obscene rates of pay for Wendyball Prima Donnas if they only got paid when they WIN.

Losses and draws mean no pay this week, sunshine. You'll manage.... 😈

 

One thing the young kids from the Premiership academies learn very quickly when they go out on loan to lower league clubs is that the players at that level do rely on win bonuses to turn a pretty feeble base salary into one that gives a quality of life.

[Steamport Southport]

17 hours ago, Railpassion said:

It's not just inflation and the cost of living that is hitting the hobby, covid and the supply problem has hammered the shop windows of the box shifters. Few other model shops have the range they once had and this is a real problem. 

 

I think the second-hand market is healthy and will dominate in the future. 

 

I think you are mistaking a lack of stock at the so called "boxshifters" for something else.

 

The problem with the "Big Two" is their disputes with the two major manufacturers. Hornby and Bachmann.

 

 

Jason

[Nearholmer]

7 hours ago, Neil said:

Growing numbers have found themselves in this position and it's predicted that this group will only get bigger. 

That’s not something I would seek or wish to overlook or trivialise, and that guy’s advice can be seen another way, as a guide to selfishness, so I wouldn’t take it too seriously, but I still think it includes some sound tips on frugality.

 

As to footballer’s pay: have a delve into the pyramid of would be footballers involved. Of those who get dragged into the base of the pyramid, academies, at very young ages, pre-teens, the proportion who survive the system to achieve obscene salaries is minute. It’s actually a very exploitative system. It’s an ancient one though, because apparently the highest rewarded people  at the height of the Roman Empire were racing charioteers - there’s a column in Rome (or is it Naples? I remember the column, but not the city!) commemorating one, and his takings were immense compared even to an international footballer’s. It’s all about how much money other people make on the back of the highly paid sportsperson through running gambling or TV rights (OK, no TV for Roman charioteers).

Edited June 30, 2022 by Nearholmer

[Nova Scotian]

I'm enjoying my 1.5% "economic adjustment" against 7% inflation. 

 

15 years ago I was a teacher in the UK - and I've watched how that profession has been gutted, and their pay significantly reduced in real terms. It started around 2008 I'd say, and accelerated from 2010 onwards when there was a government change... For example, my student loan, which I had to become a teacher, was tied to RPI - and in 2009 the interest rate was going to be 4%. However my pay rise was tied to a different inflation measure, so my pay was only going up 1%. Very quickly you get a divergence in real wages when you don't match inflation, and it impacts hardest those entering a profession or in earlier stages of their career - when their debt and outgoings are at their greatest.

I was lucky to leave with twelve grand of student debt, I only had one year (my teacher training) where tutition was three grand a year rather than one grand. It's now nine grand. Doing it today I'd have been in about 48,000 of debt to become a teacher. Completely unsustainable. The UK's entire system is broken, skewed against everyone from the middle-middle class and down - progressively getting poorer and poorer, especially for anyone who wasn't already a home owner from the right-to-buy Thatcher years. Perfect storm of stagnant wages, higher student debt and massive house price increases. 

[Neil]

Reading the responses it's clear that the pain of rampant inflation isn't equally shared. The last two posts (Nova Scotian and Railroad Rich) hint that there may be a generational factor at play here.  Time was when further education attracted a grant, possibly topped up with a bursary, rather than burdening the student with a loan. Housing likewise has become less affordable over my lifetime, so if you don't have the drag of student loan repayments or expensive rent or mortgage payments to make you're in a better position to cope with inflationary pressures. 

[Barclay]

1 hour ago, Neil said:

Reading the responses it's clear that the pain of rampant inflation isn't equally shared. The last two posts (Nova Scotian and Railroad Rich) hint that there may be a generational factor at play here.  Time was when further education attracted a grant, possibly topped up with a bursary, rather than burdening the student with a loan. Housing likewise has become less affordable over my lifetime, so if you don't have the drag of student loan repayments or expensive rent or mortgage payments to make you're in a better position to cope with inflationary pressures. 

Agreed - I left University in '89 with no debt, and our first house, bought in '92 would now cost between 8 and 9 times as much as we paid then. Very tough on the younger generation. 

[Nova Scotian]

9 hours ago, Neil said:

Reading the responses it's clear that the pain of rampant inflation isn't equally shared. The last two posts (Nova Scotian and Railroad Rich) hint that there may be a generational factor at play here.  Time was when further education attracted a grant, possibly topped up with a bursary, rather than burdening the student with a loan. Housing likewise has become less affordable over my lifetime, so if you don't have the drag of student loan repayments or expensive rent or mortgage payments to make you're in a better position to cope with inflationary pressures. 

I agree that much of this will end up being "generational", although I fear for those who have retired and are on fixed incomes. A fixed income with little discretionary spending normally is going to rapidly disappear given the rapid increases in costs such as utilities.

 

I should also be clear on my situation - I am in a position of privilege, I'm relatively well paid and my financial situation is the result of divorce, and then how I have chosen to be in my kids' lives. My career took me away, and I could decide to see them much less often, but I have committed to being there much of the time, with a second house, and all the travel inbetween. I can only do it because I have support from my parents. Because of these choices I get a glimpse of what it would be like to have the financial pressures that others have to live with and have not chosen. The idea that a major household bill can't be paid. There is no family member to bail you out.  

[The Johnster]

I reckon that, so long as one has no dependents because as soon as one does one has relinquished all control of one's money, there is a considerable extent to which if you want something badly enough you will get it irrespective of how poor or otherwise you are.  This is because you have it constantly in the back, and often in the front, of your mind, and thus tend to take any opportunity that presents itself to you to gain the desired item.  You may not even be conciously aware of this all the time, and it may not be obvious that the move is taking you in that direction, step by step. 

 

Of course, a higher disposable income if you have one makes that sort of wish fulfillment easier; if you can afford it, you simply buy it.  If you can't, then you may become obsessed enough to save up for it, denying yourself other things that may or may not be necessary to your existence, or letting the bills go by; this is a clearly dangerours activity and I advise everybody and anybody not to do it. 

 

I'm not quite talking about that sort of obession, but a general gradual movement towards being able to obtain the object of desire.  Much of, well, all of, my stock, and indeed the space to build the layout, has been acquired in this way; it's a matter of patience and steering the world gently in the direction you want it to go.  It is, to an extent, proof against inflation, because all that does is extend the time frame of the operation, and demand more patience.  You can often still do it if you're poor, but you need to play the Long Game!