Cost of living crisis - impact on our hobby

[Neil]

This piece on the BBC news website seems pertinent to the topic; in a nutshell, regular pay is falling at the fastest rate when taking inflation into account.

 

[jjb1970]

Model railway enthusiasts have been managing with inflation for years. The hobby had a golden period when there was a confluence of rapidly improving technical standards, massive improvements in detail and fidelity to prototype accompanied by low prices thanks to the economic gains from outsourcing to China and very aggressive pricing by some retailers. That probably ended a decade ago as production costs in China rose, and Bachmann introduced measures to limit fire sale discounting at the same time as adjusting their pricing model to make it worth their while. People have managed and have bought less but more selectively, or made economies elsewhere, or bought second hand models or any number of other ways to pay for their interest. Or in some cases decided they don't need to buy more stuff, I guess there will be people that decided the hobby was too expensive and moved on to do other things.

As a rule of thumb, if people are worried about paying for discretionary, expensive, hobbies then life isn't that bad as it indicates that people are clothed and fed. Although I suspect I am not the only one who has known model enthusiasts who spent ridiculous sums on models whilst living in what could be described as near deprivation in every other way. If that's what they want then fair play to them, who am I to criticise and how each of us cuts the cake of our budget is a personal decision.

[Nearholmer]

Apologies if I’ve made the same point before in this thread, but most of us go through some sort of journey of discretionary spending capacity as life progresses too. Typically there are the skint periods (student hood, getting your first home, children, some pensioners), and if we get lucky there are flush times too (DINKY, empty nest, some pensioners), so few will be completely unfamiliar with finding ways to continue a hobby with less, or even next to no, spare cash.

[Neil]

I take the points made above, but both focus on the problem at an individual level. I also wonder what the effect of there generally being less cash spent on the hobby will be? Also at the moment we're in what might be thought of as the 'phoney war', summer time, no one will have the heating on and the household energy price cap hasn't peaked yet.

[F-UnitMad]

4 hours ago, jjb1970 said:

I suspect I am not the only one who has known model enthusiasts who spent ridiculous sums on models whilst living in what could be described as near deprivation in every other way.

Ah, yes. The Stinky Brigade that surface at Exhibitions.... 🙄🤦‍♂️

[jjb1970]

I expect there will be an impact for manufacturers, but it is notable that the industry survived the 2008 financial mess remarkably well and those companies that have hit the wall in recent years have done so because of other factors. Such as incompetence (in my opinion the problem with DJM) or changes in circumstances of proprietors and business problems (LLC). Hornby have amazed many by rolling along, Bachmann seem to have a steady away position and Heljan seem to be doing OK. And there has been several new entrants, such as Accurascale, Rapido and Cavalex. Not to mention the emergence of retailers as manufacturers (Kernow, Rails, Hattons). So despite a tough 15 years the supply side of the hobby has been thriving in many ways. Model railways seem to be a hobby with perhaps a relatively small base compared to some others (though not that small, it's still a big hobby) but that base appears to be very dedicated and willing to find ways to fund the interest. 

So I'm not really worried about the model train companies. Yes I think there'll be an impact but I think it will be of degrees rather than a disaster. Looking further into the future I think the future will increasingly be with small, lean companies which can react quickly and with a low cost base. I'm amazed Hornby can still carry the overheads they have.

[jjb1970]

I should qualify my statement by saying I am assuming a period of inflation and difficult economic conditions within the bounds of normal times. If world events really go off the wall anything could happen. But in that case we won't be worrying about model trains.

[Andy Hayter]

@jjb1970

Re your earlier post.

I hope you are right but fear you are wrong.

 

As I have posted elsewhere, the last two business downturns (covid lockdowns and the financial crash) have both favoured those of mature years (which is what we are seen to be as a group). 

 

The financial crash meant that those of more senior years were often let go - with handsome farewell offerings (money to spend on model railways and suddenly time to indulge in them after years of work and no free time).

 

Covid similarly left the retired with no way to dispose of their discretionary money - no holidays, no visits to preserved railways, no trips out with the grandchildren.  Again free time to do something and money to spend on it.

 

This time around, everyone is being hit and as I have pointed out before we can equate increase household energy increase to models bought.  By my estimate by October that will be one big 00 locomotive every month taken from the finances compared with April 2021..

[tomparryharry]

On 25/06/2022 at 12:57, The Johnster said:

I reckon the majority of modellers are fairly comfortably off middle class types with disposable income who will weather the storm (I’ve seen this before, late 60s and most of the 70s).  Their DI will be less and spending will be cut, but not eliminated.  
 

In my case, I’m just a poor pensioner and feeling the pressure, but I’ve already bought most of my big ticket items before it hit the fan (seen it coming for a while), and the running cost of my modelling is comestibles, glue and paint plus the odd transfer sheet, and I’m coping, so far. 
 

Priorities are rent top-up, bills, and food.  I am lucky in that I have no dependents, and The Squeeze is Polish, so naturally frugaland cost-efficient.  Might have to send the TIVO back to Virgin, though!

 

At present, all of my model stuff is squared away. As such, when I (finally) get back to it, I don't envisage any financial hardship.  

[Kelly]

To some extent I stopped buying new models a while back.

 

The last items I bought were: KR GT3 (payments spread over time), SLW 24 with sound/KA/P4 x3 (paid on payment plan), Accurascale 92 w/sound (again, payment plan, probably the last purchase of a RTR model for a while), a Hornby H + pull-push set, Hornby 48DS (these last two coincided with birthday/christmas money). Aside from that it has been the odd second hand item or kits and parts to cut-n-shut.

 

As I am mostly interested in the Southern and 3rd rail electrics, I am mostly likely to continue down the route of cutting and shutting Replica bodies with their MLV cabs to make various EPBs and others possible from their bodies powered by their chassis. I currently have a Tyneside EPB that needs the final cab work to replicate the original tyneside style (I still need to figure this out) and the start of a 4EPB on the go (work halted due to moving house and health however). I expect I'll carry on down this route as theres no way I can afford the cost of the Bachmann 2 or 4 car units at RRP anytime soon. Wagons/coaches are a bit easier to justify still at least, but I'll still turn to kits I expect (for the small harton layout I'm planning, most of the stock will be kit built anyway).

 

I have a feeling more and more people will start moving towards 3D printing with resin printers available for around £200 that can do a pretty decent job (especially if you model in N I expect where you won't be limited as much by the small bed sizes on the cheaper model printers). Combine a 3D printer with a cricut and you can probably make most of what most people need with enough suitable 3D design work done of course.

Edited August 10, 2022 by Kelly

[Samedan]

Unfortunately, I firmly expect the tone of comments on this topic to become more pessimistic as time progresses. Why? Because, just as one example, the estimate of where the energy price will reach by mid-winter seems to be going up by a significant amount every couple of weeks.

Yes, I know that we’ve had periods of high inflation etc before and model railways as a hobby has come through them. I’ve lived and modelled through them for well over half a Century. But, in terms of macro-economics, we do seem to be heading into a perfect storm. This does not look like the kind of cyclical downturns or even recessions that we have mostly lived through and expect. The economy is heading for Stagflation, where inflation is high but economic activity slows. This makes it more difficult to apply the normal economic levers to get out of it. I will also just add that the U.K. also has specific economic weaknesses which exacerbate the problem. 
This means that it’s not only a question of how individual modellers will respond to the challenges but also of how businesses that keep the hobby supplied will adapt to survive. 
Consequently, even if many existing, older modellers on index-linked pensions are reasonably insulated (if you’ll pardon the pun) from the economic storm, businesses will have to face higher costs (energy, raw materials and components, employee and financing to name but some) as well as reduced discretionary spending by modellers.
I think this is bound to re-shape our hobby. We have become used to an ever-expanding range and sophistication of products. I cannot see this continuing at anything like the pace that we have seen. Moreover, our current capitalist model is also based on the assumption of ever-expanding markets and expenditure. I wonder whether younger, newer entrants will be able to take up the hobby for some time to come?

I accept that this is a very “macro” view of the issue and that I am probably not one of life’s natural optimists. I hope, of course, that the Ukraine war ends soon and that politicians make the right calls and we start to regain a more stable economic path. Do I think railway modelling will die out as a mass hobby? No, actually, I don’t. The trend towards more leisure time - either by choice or enforced - is entrenched and fortunately there is a lot of financial, emotional and intellectual capital in the hobby to draw on.

But modellers and the business community will have to change and adapt the way we go about it, in specific ways which a number of other contributors  have already suggested. 

 

[Chrisr40]

Perhaps the simple answer is be grateful for what we have, don't worry what someone else has got and enjoy the hobby for how it makes us feel/the pleasure it gives us.

[Wheatley]

To answer Neil's original questions from a personal point of view:

 

1. I'm currently building the largest layout I've ever started and only essentials are being purchased - glue, screws, track, Stanley knife blades etc.

 

2. All the "Ooh ! Shiny pretty thing" purchases stopped a while ago when RTR prices started exceeding what I was prepared to pay. There are enough Parkside etc kits stockpiled to meet all current requirements. 

 

3. Most subscriptions have stopped. We never had Sky etc anyway but everything except the broadband and one magazine subscription has stopped, and I no longer buy mags ad hoc unless there's something of considerable interest in them. 

 

4. I'm very fortunate in being able to travel for free or at reduced cost by train. Exhibitions beyond S&W Yorks are now out unless they are do-able in a day by train. Ironically that means some close-ish ones are out whereas Glasgow and even Perth are (just) viable !

Edited August 19, 2022 by Wheatley

[F-UnitMad]

On 19/08/2022 at 16:51, Chrisr40 said:

Perhaps the simple answer is be grateful for what we have, don't worry what someone else has got and enjoy the hobby for how it makes us feel/the pleasure it gives us.

I do that already. 👍

[Nearholmer]

Worrying what someone else has got, by which I’m understanding envy, is a certain way to have a worm eat your soul, so best avoided in all things, not just model railways.

[billbedford]

Back in the real modelling world...

The price of brass etchings has increased by around 30% since February. 

So I can see modellers having to rely on what they have stashed away in their "maturing cabinet"

[melmerby]

37 minutes ago, billbedford said:

 

Simple, we are in the midst of an economic war. US sanctions against Russia were designed to damage European economies and Russia has no reason to save European politicians from their own follies. 

What utter tosh.

[billbedford]

1 hour ago, melmerby said:

What utter tosh.

 

We shall see...

[Legend]

Well my combined gas and electricity was £120 per month , the new variable rate is £178 and If I fix its £333 per month , presumably because the price cap is about to be announced and there's a further increase in spring, so these increases are  built into new fixed rate  .   Just to give people an indication of likely rises !

 

Faced with that across the board , its difficult to believe that there won't be some impact on peoples discretionary spend  and that this hobby, like others will be affected . 

Edited August 22, 2022 by Legend

[Nearholmer]

If you ‘fix’ now the supplier is taking a punt on future fuel prices, wage bills, etc, not operating on the basis of prior intelligence, same as if you take a mortgage on a long ‘fix’, with the lender taking a punt on future base interest rates.

 

The supplier is likely to use their best educated guess, and add a bit to cover uncertainty, and because uncertainty is so high currently, the bit they add will be quite large, and the longer the period of fix, the larger it will be.

 

Are energy providers any better at guessing what is going to happen next than the rest of us? Not much, I would suggest, when it comes to things like war, but what they will be better at is understanding, for instance, the fuel price implications of various war scenarios.

Edited August 22, 2022 by Nearholmer

[Michael Hodgson]

On 21/08/2022 at 08:41, billbedford said:

Back in the real modelling world...

The price of brass etchings has increased by around 30% since February. 

So I can see modellers having to rely on what they have stashed away in their "maturing cabinet"

Where there's brass, there's muck.  Basso is subject to inflation too.

[RichardT]

On 21/08/2022 at 11:09, billbedford said:

 

We shall see...

Well, I’ve had another look-see, and your conspiracist view is still utter tosh.

 

RichardT

Edited August 22, 2022 by RichardT
Spelling

[CKPR]

As a maker of railway models with a somewhat old-fashioned approach to the hobby,  I have a somewhat oblique relationship to  contemporary railway modelling with with its emphasis and increasing dependence on  expensive r-t-r & r-t-p and digital technology. And no,  I'm not an engineer or professional craftsman and I'm at the younger end (I still work !) of what is essentially a hobby for the retired. Therefore,  I think the question is what effect the unfolding economic crisis will have on the current incarnation of the hobby and whether this is unsustainable  - perhaps we will see a shift back to a hobby based on making rather than purchasing? 

Edited August 22, 2022 by CKPR

[melmerby]

4 minutes ago, CKPR said:

  I think the question is what effect the unfolding economic crisis will have on the current incarnation of the hobby and whether we will see a shift back to a hobby of making rather than purchasing

When was it mainly a hobby of making?

I've meddled in model railways/toy trains for over 60 years and RTR has always been the mainstay of it. Without the basic train set and it's accessories in childhood, far fewer would even start it.

AIUI People making stuff came later in their hobby timeline if they continued with it into adulthood, after exhausting the (definitely not) huge variety of RTR available, with such things as body kits for Triang chassis and alternative track and buildings to widen the scope of the layout.

 

The high quality detail and paint/decoration finish on current RTR make it difficult to beat appearance wise, compared to earlier times when the moulded detail was very crude and easily beaten on any kit.

 

The current squeeze is certain to cause the loss of traders in model railway stuff and I can't help feeling the aftermarket suppliers will be hardest hit, many of which maybe operating with smallish margins on their products.

 

BTW electronics has always been a hobby of mine, starting very early when still at school and making electronic devices to control a model train was an early adoption of mine - starting in the '60s

I even worked up a computer control system to operate a DC operated layout using a BBC micro (in BBC Basic!)

[Nearholmer]

4 minutes ago, melmerby said:

When was it mainly a hobby of making?

I haven’t had much involvement with 00, of even 4mm/ft standard gauge of any form for c45 years, but then then balance towards making, either from scratch, kits, bodgery of r-t-r or WHY was much heavier than it is now.

 

As I’m sure you recall, the range of r-t-r was very limited, and r-t-p virtually nil, so anybody setting out to represent a time of place had to set-to with tools. I lived then in Sussex, so most of the club was into SR, either 1930s or 1950/60s, and I can only recall three r-t-r locos (Triang M7, L1 and the dreaded Sir Dinadan) and availability of those was sporadic. Wills kits were a big thing, K’s kits were a big frustration, Wrenn cost too much for most of us.

 

Most of us started with Airfix kits, Schools, West Country (or was it MN?), Standard 4 2-6-0, and zillions of Pugs to practise on, plus the wagons, and were certainly well down the ‘making’ road by the time we went to secondary school. I was certainly hacking A Wrenn R1, scratchbuild if buildings etc c12yo.

 

Not long after I moved to 009, and that involved a lot of making, because there simple was no r-t-r British stuff, none at all.

 

The balance has definitely shifted, and maybe it will shift back a bit, although my forecast is that a lot of the ‘collected’ (stashed) r-t-r from the past 20 years will enter the market as the owners of stashes feel the pinch, and that might keep the wheel turning.

 

Also, despite the popular image of a pensioner as a person scrimping every halfpenny, there are still a lot of “grey pounds” floating about, probably more discretionary spending power among the prosperous portion of the pensioner clan than among younger people with mortgages, children, etc to worry about - that portion of the populace will keep afloat for a while yet.