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Hornby announce TT:120


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28 minutes ago, Roy L S said:

Yes of course the established ranges from different manufacturers complement each other and allow a more representative layout and nobody is realistically expecting Hornby to achieve anything like that in TT120 even in the medium term, my specific concern is the seemingly lengthening timelines and lack of clarity about what is coming and when. Without it I fear that people's patience will last only so long and they will turn their backs on TT120.

I've obliquely mentioned this before but there is already a comprehensive range of coaches, traction and locomotives- its just that they are in kit form from the likes of Worsley Works and Lincoln Locos and even bespoke wheels are available through a combination of 3D printing and Ultrascale tyres. The glaring lack at present is gearboxes and motor bogies; with these I am sure the growth of kit and short production RTR would ensue.

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14 hours ago, adb968008 said:

I think TT is a good idea, but as with all start up ventures, timing is everything.

Had the money been up front and stock more coordinated, and been on shelves during Covid, I think it would have done well.

 

Having a half cooked range, drawn out over a half a decade, only available via 1 web site, launched during a recession (in all but name) at a time when spare cash for new ideas is spent on the heating bill instead, probably wasnt the wisest time.

 

According to what we've all heard the development of TT:120 has been going on for quite a number of years and for Hornby to sit on it and wait in the hope of better social and economic conditions would be a non-starter - they had to take it to market at some point to start realising some profit from the investment they'd made. I don't think it is fair to say that it wasn't the "wisest time" to release it - it is more that it had to be released at some point and that the current time was just unfortunate for Hornby.

 

And selling direct via their website allowed them to pass on savings to buyers - probably quite critical when you're launching something like UK outline TT:120.

 

Also selling via the web site rather than via dealers doesn't make any difference to the availability of product - Hornby can only supply it as fast as the factory in China can push it out. They appear to be selling pretty much everything they can produce so I don't think that having it only available via web sales really makes any difference at the current time.

 

 

14 hours ago, adb968008 said:

Personally I think the range choice isnt aligned, (hotch potch comes to mind) and if it had been less protective and a more open market from the inception.. then there could be more players and thus promoting more rapid range growth, which means more adoption and more sales for everyone.

 

I signed up out of interest in TT but as its going to be a very long time before I can put together something that makes sense and of interest to me. Its firmly on the back of my mind and I watch with interest, but buying a GBRF 08 to shunt Pullmans doesn’t make sense and i’m not going to buy now and wait a decade.

 

I feel Hornby is committed at this point, so if its going to work, its going to need to pick a theme and expand it, for it to be a success. They jumped in with A3/A4 so it looks like LNER/ER steam..  so if it were me, diesels would be a 08/40/47/55 and steam would be like the J50/N2/B1/K1/L1 and run with that theme, then widen it from the midlands 3f/4f/Black5/8f/Jubilee and Duchess and into BR standards, Type2/3 diesels.

 

But right now it feels its trying to be jack of all trades, master of none, ring fencing the garden from all outsiders… I dont see that approach being successful unless they have deep pocket funds to finance the current approach in a greater detail and shorter timescale… either people will lose interest waiting or competitors will each lunch watching.

 

Don't forget that from what SK has said, TT:120 isn't aimed at your average RMwebber who often wants to model a specific region and time period, at times down to just a few years (or even months!), it was said to be aimed at newcomers, who often neither know nor care what runs with what and are probably happy as long as it goes round and round and looks colourful.

 

Therefore I don't agree that they need to pick a specific theme and expand on it - by doing that you run the risk of pleasing a few people but of alienating a whole lot more. For example, a while ago one contributor to this thread was saying that they should concentrate solely on the most recent modern image locos and stock because that's what people see on the railways these days, but I'd be willing to bet that would be of zero interest to you and you would not even give TT:120 a second thought if that was the 'theme' that Hornby chose for TT:120.

 

So it could be that a 'hotch potch' of locos and stock is keeping a broader range of people interested, some in the hope that more things that they want will turn up sooner rather than later.

 

And that list of locos you have there is huge - I think it is way bigger than Hornby's proposed list of locos so far. Although we are less than a year into TT:120 we are still waiting for a third loco so goodness knows how long it would take them to produce all those that you've listed - and while Hornby are doing that then any modellers not interested in those locos (for example more recent modern image modellers or modellers of other regions/eras) will have switched off and gone elsewhere.

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For my two penn'rth I think TT120 is exactly the niche product Hornby needs (well even i have been predicting it, off and on, for several yaers for that very reason).  So in that respect it is good step for teh company.

 

There are a =I think a few damp squibs in there as they're clearly finding ot that sole direct selling needs more prof duct support than they anticipatred and they've almost certainly  had to increase their labour force because of it.  I think solely direct selling mght not be teh best udea and they should really have looked at g havinga select bunch of licensed retailers to offer sales and service support but the might still happen.

 

I think too that as they've got beyond launch stage they are now under=pricing the range  and taht will not hep their bottom line.  But it is a quandary as they also want to encourage sales.  However in the latter respect they seem to me to have not got it right.   i have yet to see an advert for TT120 in anything which expands their market beyond the existing/traditional area yet they proclaimed taht they saw it as beoadening teh market and bringing new buyers into the hobby, and basically captive to them.  if they can't manage that all they are going to do is compete with themselves and their various 00 ranges .

 

I'm not sure what sells best.  Irrelevant at this stage tro say the East Coast pacific sets sold out because with the modelling market we, nad Hirnby, know they sell. But what sells  a newbie - is it a container train, a FLIRT, or an Electrostar?  That area clearly needs thought.

 

So idea - 100%,; sales model and support - c85-90%; launch models chosen based on sales thus far  95%+;  overall range thus far - not hitting any sort of real world consistency so only about 35%; expanding the buying market (measured against stated targets) =seemingly no better than 10%  (on a good day).   In business team membership it looks like the team needs 'a finisher' tot take the idea etc to a really successful position and bring in a really good rate of retuern on the huge sums invested.

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32 minutes ago, J-Lewis said:

I’ve just had an email that my BR Blue class 08 preorder has arrived in the warehouse.  I guess they will also be on the website as ‘in stock’ soon?

 

I have also received the email for my blue 08.

 

As to whether or not they will be available in stock for purchase, I guess that will depend on whether or not the preorders have exceeded the number they have been able to ship in from China. That will be interesting to see. And also whether or not the GBRf variant is as popular as the blue one.

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4 hours ago, Porfuera said:

 

And selling direct via their website allowed them to pass on savings to buyers - probably quite critical when you're launching something like UK outline TT:120.

 

are you suggesting that going retail will put up price increases ?*

if website only, is that a permanent business model ?

how does this reach new customers without marketing, when its competing against Hornby OO which is nationwide, global and probably the only gauge the customer knows ?

 

Heljan priced their class 31 at £199, which with usual discounts at around £175..

Hornbys class 50 is priced at £145 (with 10% discount for club members at c£130*).

Theres a price gap there, thats unexplained.

 

 

4 hours ago, Porfuera said:

 

Also selling via the web site rather than via dealers doesn't make any difference to the availability of product - Hornby can only supply it as fast as the factory in China can push it out. They appear to be selling pretty much everything they can produce so I don't think that having it only available via web sales really makes any difference at the current time.

we dont know volume, it could be just 1… have any figures been published ?

 

4 hours ago, Porfuera said:

 

 

 

Don't forget that from what SK has said, TT:120 isn't aimed at your average RMwebber who often wants to model a specific region and time period, at times down to just a few years (or even months!), it was said to be aimed at newcomers, who often neither know nor care what runs with what and are probably happy as long as it goes round and round and looks colourful.

 

in that case the range should be smokey joe.. its fast and cheap and I bet its sold more than any other loco.

 

4 hours ago, Porfuera said:

 

Therefore I don't agree that they need to pick a specific theme and expand on it - by doing that you run the risk of pleasing a few people but of alienating a whole lot more. For example, a while ago one contributor to this thread was saying that they should concentrate solely on the most recent modern image locos and stock because that's what people see on the railways these days, but I'd be willing to bet that would be of zero interest to you and you would not even give TT:120 a second thought if that was the 'theme' that Hornby chose for TT:120.

 

Au contraire.…  it was me who suggested modern image should have been the starting point, that is, if you want to reach todays younger modellers.

lock them in for life and give them one of the few things they cannot yet get in OO.

 

Whatever route, era, geography they chose it is imo better than trying to boil the ocean and do nothing for nobody whilst pretending to do everything for everybody.

 

4 hours ago, Porfuera said:

 

So it could be that a 'hotch potch' of locos and stock is keeping a broader range of people interested, some in the hope that more things that they want will turn up sooner rather than later.

 

hope ? Is that a business model ?

 

4 hours ago, Porfuera said:

 

And that list of locos you have there is huge - I think it is way bigger than Hornby's proposed list of locos so far. Although we are less than a year into TT:120 we are still waiting for a third loco so goodness knows how long it would take them to produce all those that you've listed - and while Hornby are doing that then any modellers not interested in those locos (for example more recent modern image modellers or modellers of other regions/eras) will have switched off and gone elsewhere.

agreed.

but I think they need to go in harder and deeper if they want to own this market, or specialise or share it.

Its taken OO 50 years to cover 1830-2023, and a dozen plus companies….
But that VHS vs Beta battle was won in the 80’s, TT isnt Blue-ray or even DVD, its really mini-vhs, competing against a whole vhs back catalog… I think it can work, but not sure the current direction is great.

 

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37 minutes ago, Porfuera said:

 

 

I have also received the email for my blue 08.

 

As to whether or not they will be available in stock for purchase, I guess that will depend on whether or not the preorders have exceeded the number they have been able to ship in from China. That will be interesting to see. And also whether or not the GBRf variant is as popular as the blue one.

I guess we will soon find out as ive just ordered one after seeing they are in the warehouse. 

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2 hours ago, adb968008 said:

are you suggesting that going retail will put up price increases ?*

 

Dealers will want to make some sort of profit so Hornby will either have to increase their prices to account for that or else they will have to reduce their profits to keep prices the same. I'm no expert but I assume that the current model of direct selling allows Hornby to keep what would be the dealers margin for themselves as increased profit and to use some of that to offer lower prices to buyers.

 

2 hours ago, adb968008 said:

if website only, is that a permanent business model ?

 

We know it could change in the future because SK has said as much. Whether it will change or when has yet to be decided.

 

2 hours ago, adb968008 said:

how does this reach new customers without marketing, when its competing against Hornby OO which is nationwide, global and probably the only gauge the customer knows ?

 

It seems to be doing fine without dealers at the moment. Presumably marketing may increase when they have more to offer, both in terms of quantity of supply and of range of items.

 

2 hours ago, adb968008 said:

Heljan priced their class 31 at £199, which with usual discounts at around £175..

Hornbys class 50 is priced at £145 (with 10% discount for club members at c£130*).

Theres a price gap there, thats unexplained.

 

I'm not entirely sure what you're trying to say here but presumably that will be some dealers eating into their own profit margin in order to boost sales, possibly because they shift larger volumes and get more favourable prices from manufacturers as a result. I'd be willing to bet that those prices you're quoting are not universal and if you look around you'll find shops that sell at RRP or close to it.

Is the Hornby Class 50 you're referring to an online sale? Presumably it is up to them what discount they offer if they're selling directly as there's no dealer margin to factor in.

OTOH if you're trying to compare two different prices of two different locos from two different manufacturers then I don't see your point. Prices vary according to the level of detail or the size of batches or dealer discounting or for many other reasons.

 

2 hours ago, adb968008 said:

we dont know volume, it could be just 1… have any figures been published ?

 

What would be the point of trying to sell one unit of anything through a dealer network? It makes even more sense to sell low volumes centrally because you remove the costs of distribution of small volumes around the country. As to figures, I seem to recall in the early days we were counting the number of TT:120 sets sent out and we reached figures of something like 2,500 Scotsman sets over three batches and 1,000 Easterner sets in a single batch before we lost interest around the end of January. What point were you trying to make anyway?

 

2 hours ago, adb968008 said:

in that case the range should be smokey joe.. its fast and cheap and I bet its sold more than any other loco.

 

Apparently they've been selling Smokey Joe since 1983 so you'd kind of hope it would be their largest volume seller considering the timespan and the low price. However, Hornby have presumably started with A1s and A4s because they know their appeal in 00 and they know they'll sell better than TT:120 Smokey Joe sets. Unless you know better?

 

2 hours ago, adb968008 said:

Au contraire.…  it was me who suggested modern image should have been the starting point, that is, if you want to reach todays younger modellers.

lock them in for life and give them one of the few things they cannot yet get in OO.

 

Whatever route, era, geography they chose it is imo better than trying to boil the ocean and do nothing for nobody whilst pretending to do everything for everybody.

 

Your list suggested otherwise - I didn't see any modern image in there at all, just a lot of steamers and older diesels.

 

As I said before, concentrating on a single region/era could alienate more people that it pleases. Plus they can't produce everything all at once and they can't suit everybody all at once either so some people are going to have to learn to wait. Just because you don't like what they're doing doesn't make them wrong and maybe they know more about what they're doing than you do.

 

2 hours ago, adb968008 said:

hope ? Is that a business model ?

 

I said buyers were hoping. I'm not aware of buyers having business models. You might be different.

 

2 hours ago, adb968008 said:

but I think they need to go in harder and deeper if they want to own this market, or specialise or share it.

Its taken OO 50 years to cover 1830-2023, and a dozen plus companies.

 

It has only been 7 or 8 months but we're still waiting to get our hand on the third loco and, as I said previously, they can only sell what the factory in China can produce for them so how can they go 'harder and deeper'?

 

I'm sure they'd love to be able to bring out something new every week, although if they did that then people would be more selective with their purchases because people have limited budgets. Hornby might then end up with a lot more unsold stock in their warehouse leading to them doing smaller production runs which could push up prices, leading to fewer purchases. I imagine they need to strike a balance between keeping the momentum going and not flooding their potential market.

 

If it has taken 50 years for 00 to get to where it currently is then trying to compare seven or eight months of TT:120 with that is a bit unreasonable. I'm sure other companies will come in if they think that TT:120 will stay the course and they can see that a profit can be made.

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I’m looking forward to getting my hands on my first British outline loco.  The class 08 looks great in the preview pictures.  It’s been a long time since I ran any uk models so it’ll be a nice change.  I’ve got an Easterner set on order as well. So for me TT will be a first real foray into steam as well.  I don’t think OO would have tempted me back to British outline so it’s really the appeal of something new that’s grabbed me.

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just a couple of points-

 

At York N-gauge show I was talking to one of the manufacturers present (no I WON'T say which) but he was under the impression that Hornby will be signing up some UK dealers to sell TT "before long".  This would accord with Simon Kohler's comments of "we'll cover the risk until it takes off then open it out". 

 

Said manufacturer wouldn't be drawn on doing TT but didn't rule out the possibility - another one there did.

 

Doing a count on Facebook, the number of people on the TT:120 FB groups is now well in excess of 8000.   Not really a sign of a scale that is going to go away, however much certain people on here and elsewhere would like it to.  Still a lot of very basic questions being asked, so a lot of newbies, and a large number more than happy to have an LNER coloured A1 or Scotsman on Mark 1s and a blue A4 on goods wagons racing round a small oval.  No doubt some on here will sneer at that, but their money is also going into scenic stuff etc - all good for business and a lot of new money going into the hobby.

 

Having got back from York, I've now got the TT layout out, and am running new traction from Piko, Roco and Kres, with another Kres railcar on order.

 

Pics to follow in a new thread.

 

Les

 

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15 hours ago, meatloaf said:

I guess we will soon find out as ive just ordered one after seeing they are in the warehouse. 

Email recieved this morning and card charged. 

 

So looks loke plenty to cover all preorders as i only ordered yesterday.

 

Ordered a few wagons and a track pack 1 to have a play now i know ive got the loco.

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14 hours ago, Porfuera said:

I'm not entirely sure what you're trying to say here but presumably that will be some dealers eating into their own profit margin in order to boost sales, possibly because they shift larger volumes and get more favourable prices from manufacturers as a result. I'd be willing to bet that those prices you're quoting are not universal and if you look around you'll find shops that sell at RRP or close to it.

Is the Hornby Class 50 you're referring to an online sale? Presumably it is up to them what discount they offer if they're selling directly as there's no dealer margin to factor in.

OTOH if you're trying to compare two different prices of two different locos from two different manufacturers then I don't see your point. Prices vary according to the level of detail or the size of batches or dealer discounting or for many other reasons.

 

One thing we can probably assume at the moment is that Hornby are benefitting from a higher margin on direct sales for TT (hence the TT Club discount after which they are still making a profit I should hope) and ultimately if they start selling through retailers they'll need to maintain the current levels of RRPs or there will be a stink.  We'll see discounted levels at retailers similar to the discount the TT club gives I should reckon.

 

So a 33% price difference on RRP between a roughly similar item with Hornby and Heljan shows one or more of the following;

  1. The cost of manufacture is quite different between the two due to differing specifications
  2. Heljan were keen to stick to a known price point (i.e. that of 00)
  3. Heljan may have been front loading more of their development risk than Hornby

What we've seen so far is that Hornby have sensibly opted for more moulded detail than they do in 00, and the CAD Heljan showed of their 31 seemed to indicate construction more like their newer 00 models, which leans into 1. above at least, though 2. would inform 1.

 

At the moment, Hornby are setting the rules for the market, Heljan quickly learnt from that.

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I have to just laugh.  Just checked the Hobbyco web site and they've pushed the expected release date for the Easterner set to Jan 2024.

https://www.hobbyco.com.au/products/tt-120-the-easterner-train-set?_pos=23&_sid=dcc48cc87&_ss=r

 

TT:120 (and Hornby distribution in Australia in general) is just a joke at this point.  It's not just TT either, getting HM7000 gear is also impossible.

Hobbyco were literally with SK promoting this stuff at the Melbourne Toy Fair this year and they still can't sell it!

 

Southern Model Supplies was spoken of by SK as a shining example of how to do things on Youtube videos not that long ago, yet they seem absolutely useless.

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6 minutes ago, Steamport Southport said:

The new magazine just popped through the door.

 

Duchess expected in Phase 2 in September so that debunks the 2024/2025 idea. Class 66 around the same time.

 

 

 

Jason

 

I think we have to take all these dates with a reasonable dosage of NaCl. We saw working prototypes of the 08 before Christmas and they're only arriving now. I'd be delighted if you're right but probably best to remain calm and wait and see.

(Just trying to contain my own excitement. I really want a Duchess!)

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16 hours ago, Porfuera said:

 

Dealers will want to make some sort of profit so Hornby will either have to increase their prices to account for that or else they will have to reduce their profits to keep prices the same. I'm no expert but I assume that the current model of direct selling allows Hornby to keep what would be the dealers margin for themselves as increased profit and to use some of that to offer lower prices to buyers.

 

 

We know it could change in the future because SK has said as much. Whether it will change or when has yet to be decided.

 

 

It seems to be doing fine without dealers at the moment. Presumably marketing may increase when they have more to offer, both in terms of quantity of supply and of range of items.

 

 

I'm not entirely sure what you're trying to say here but presumably that will be some dealers eating into their own profit margin in order to boost sales, possibly because they shift larger volumes and get more favourable prices from manufacturers as a result. I'd be willing to bet that those prices you're quoting are not universal and if you look around you'll find shops that sell at RRP or close to it.

Is the Hornby Class 50 you're referring to an online sale? Presumably it is up to them what discount they offer if they're selling directly as there's no dealer margin to factor in.

OTOH if you're trying to compare two different prices of two different locos from two different manufacturers then I don't see your point. Prices vary according to the level of detail or the size of batches or dealer discounting or for many other reasons.

 

 

What would be the point of trying to sell one unit of anything through a dealer network? It makes even more sense to sell low volumes centrally because you remove the costs of distribution of small volumes around the country. As to figures, I seem to recall in the early days we were counting the number of TT:120 sets sent out and we reached figures of something like 2,500 Scotsman sets over three batches and 1,000 Easterner sets in a single batch before we lost interest around the end of January. What point were you trying to make anyway?

 

 

Apparently they've been selling Smokey Joe since 1983 so you'd kind of hope it would be their largest volume seller considering the timespan and the low price. However, Hornby have presumably started with A1s and A4s because they know their appeal in 00 and they know they'll sell better than TT:120 Smokey Joe sets. Unless you know better?

 

 

Your list suggested otherwise - I didn't see any modern image in there at all, just a lot of steamers and older diesels.

 

As I said before, concentrating on a single region/era could alienate more people that it pleases. Plus they can't produce everything all at once and they can't suit everybody all at once either so some people are going to have to learn to wait. Just because you don't like what they're doing doesn't make them wrong and maybe they know more about what they're doing than you do.

 

 

I said buyers were hoping. I'm not aware of buyers having business models. You might be different.

 

 

It has only been 7 or 8 months but we're still waiting to get our hand on the third loco and, as I said previously, they can only sell what the factory in China can produce for them so how can they go 'harder and deeper'?

 

I'm sure they'd love to be able to bring out something new every week, although if they did that then people would be more selective with their purchases because people have limited budgets. Hornby might then end up with a lot more unsold stock in their warehouse leading to them doing smaller production runs which could push up prices, leading to fewer purchases. I imagine they need to strike a balance between keeping the momentum going and not flooding their potential market.

 

If it has taken 50 years for 00 to get to where it currently is then trying to compare seven or eight months of TT:120 with that is a bit unreasonable. I'm sure other companies will come in if they think that TT:120 will stay the course and they can see that a profit can be made.

No point responding, nothing you say will convince them that TT:120 might actually work and there is a lot of sound business logic in what they have done to date.

 

 

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3 hours ago, Steamport Southport said:

The new magazine just popped through the door.

 

Duchess expected in Phase 2 in September so that debunks the 2024/2025 idea. Class 66 around the same time.

 

 

 

Jason

 

The magazine seems to be a bit disconnected.  In the last issue, they were suggesting that the 08s would be arriving at the same time as the mag!  Perhaps the 08 article was supposed to appear in this issue...

 

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6 hours ago, andrewshimmin said:

 

I think we have to take all these dates with a reasonable dosage of NaCl. We saw working prototypes of the 08 before Christmas and they're only arriving now. I'd be delighted if you're right but probably best to remain calm and wait and see.

(Just trying to contain my own excitement. I really want a Duchess!)

 

Every manufacturer is suffering from the same problems at the moment.  They will know when the tools are made.  They will know when the manufacture of components in-house at the factory starts.  They will know when final assembly starts.  They will know when the stuff is ready to go on the boat.  They will know when the stuff is put on the boat. They will know when that boat arrives in the UK.

 

They will know each of these as it happens.  They will not know any of these in advance to a great degree of accuracy.  Assembly can't start until all sub-contracted bits are in- the recent shortage of sound decoders is an example- Zimo couldn't make the decoders until all the component chips were in stock.  Even when the stuff is on the boat to the UK delays can happen if that boat is rerouted to pick up a more profitable cargo somewhere close to its route- and most containerised cargoes are more profitable than a single container of model railways.

 

Stuff will be ready when it is ready and on sale when it arrives.  Hornby will no doubt show us anything physical they can photograph- after all they need to keep our appetites whetted.

 

Les

 

Waiting for news of J94s....

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I go away for a week and the knockers re-appear! I do wonder if some people think that if they say it enough times it'll actually happen, like the kiddies fairy tale books used to say, hence the TT120 is dead comments from some a few pages ago!

 

Anyhow, like many others, my email about the 08 has come through and I managed to pick up some old green BTTB coaches in a secondhand shop in Bratislava for the BTTB steamer I'd got a while ago, so things are moving on positively!

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I do wonder if there are other things which might come earlier than we expect.

In April by email Simon Kohler told me "the design for the LNER coaches is now complete so they will be sent off soon for tooling quotes and then on to manufacture." I don't quite know what that timescale would be, but presumably less than a year? Samples have already been seen at shows. But they aren't anywhere on the website or being trailed in the videos and magazine. Are they being prepared to spring on us as a surprise?

 

Meanwhile in January again by email when I asked him about tank engines he said Hornby "have [one small tank engine] already in tooling and we have another waiting to be tooled so things are moving along." Again, I don't know what that means, but it certainly suggests we could see a couple of tank engines in the next twelve months. But not a peep on the website or in the magazine and only some hints about Austerities/J94 and Terriers as well as a Pannier tank. Again, could this be going to be a surprise release?

 

Maybe I'm overthinking it 😜

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59 minutes ago, ThaneofFife said:

SK was the driving force behind tt120 so after he retires it needs somebody just as enthusiastic to carry that work on otherwise I can see the whole thing could just shrivel up and die.

 

Really? After the amount of money they've already spent on it they'd chuck it all in because one person has left?!! Amazing!! 🙄

 

If you cared to look at the future plans for locos and stock which will be already in planning, development and production phases it is pretty clear that they are committed to it and I doubt the investors who put the money in to finance it would be all that happy if they quit because one person has left. Succession planning springs to mind...

Edited by Hobby
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14 hours ago, Les1952 said:

 

Every manufacturer is suffering from the same problems at the moment.  They will know when the tools are made.  They will know when the manufacture of components in-house at the factory starts.  They will know when final assembly starts.  They will know when the stuff is ready to go on the boat.  They will know when the stuff is put on the boat. They will know when that boat arrives in the UK.

 

They will know each of these as it happens.  They will not know any of these in advance to a great degree of accuracy.  Assembly can't start until all sub-contracted bits are in- the recent shortage of sound decoders is an example- Zimo couldn't make the decoders until all the component chips were in stock.  Even when the stuff is on the boat to the UK delays can happen if that boat is rerouted to pick up a more profitable cargo somewhere close to its route- and most containerised cargoes are more profitable than a single container of model railways.

 

Stuff will be ready when it is ready and on sale when it arrives.  Hornby will no doubt show us anything physical they can photograph- after all they need to keep our appetites whetted.

 

Les

 

Waiting for news of J94s....

Don't forget that most container ships, especially the long distance vessels, are 'liner' services and work to a timetable that is published in advance although obviously the weather or port problems can cause delays.  Nobody is going to divert a ship for a few higher value boxes but in spme cases transhipment does take place at intermediate ports for all sorts of reasons - sometimes as simple as getting the vessel though its wrork there as quickly as possible,

 

But the ship will have a published UK port arrival date and the shipping agent can track it to check if it is running to schedule so it will be known in advance when the vessel is due to arrive.   The shipping part is probably the most predictable part of the whole process although the weather can be a factor.

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