OO or TT range.......

[Torbay Express]

Recently seen a Facebook post regarding TT from AS...... When I first saw TT as a boy, I was gutted that it wasn't available, but I think that most Modellers are pretty seasoned in OO.  Some will probably venture into a project with TT, but for the majority unless totally changing modelling interest, then it's too late, without vast expense and getting rid of cherished models. 

 

I can see the logic of Margate going into this ring, it opens a new door- less competition than OO, reasonable representations of models without having to meet exacting details such as AS are doing in OO. (Things like the TT HAA look okay, but don't appear to brimming with separate details, that's not a criticism but it fits in with Margates strengths better than ultra detail spec which A/S aspires to, plus the classic 'traditional' train set potential that comes from the brand and diversification in light of the competition) .  

 

As for A/S I think the door is firmly open on the OO market, which they could easily come to dominate in a relatively short space of time.  OO, the size permits exceptional levels of detail which A/S are known for, plus if the likes of Margate become more focused on a different market, they are less likely to retaliate and duplicate, as with another manufacturer in the case of the Class 37.  The only achillies heel of OO, is the r-t-r track compromise with HO, unless you venture down the likes of the DCC concepts route of track.  Whilst difficult, I would still like to see an Accuratrak range.......

 

Hopefully too for Margate, TT becomes something that they can develop and nurture, as they are clearly investing into it heavily with a clean sheet. It also works with the philosophy of recent years of maximising direct selling. 

 

 

[atom3624]

TT does seem a 'nice size', but I totally agree with Scumcat - far too invested - time and money - in OO to make the change.

The annoying anomaly is the relative agreement in scale and gauge, not present with 'normal' OO/HO.

Al.

[adb968008]

If the economy was good, outlook certain and inflation under control, then i’d have had a dabble.

 

Relaunching TT is a bit like relaunching Cassette tapes and a Walkman..its got benefits, looks cool, but the world has moved on, theres always some who will have ago.

 

But ive still not got around to putting some 009 alongside my OO.

 

So for now i’ll look at it, think its exciting but there is absolutely no reason for me to waste some cash on it. I’d look at 009 to compliment my OO before TT.

 

I think TT will just dilute N interest long term and cannabalise OO trainset sales short term. It might make a slice of the market for itself, but I dont see it growing the market, just splitting up N/OO down the road, how much depends on how much range is available and how exciting those choices are… 30 years ago N gauge was dying, due to limited range, most of it out of date, today its cool, but OO it is not. The case for N is still stronger than TT imo.

 

if TT is aimed at new future modellers, i’d not be starting with Duchesses and 57’ stock, tank wagons etc.. i’d be straight in at Modern units, integrated Apps, onboard cameras, wifi enabled etc and make it cooler, younger more attractive than the alternatives.. as thats what future modellers are looking at.. More of the same but smaller isnt compelling.

 

For HO, I shamelessly mix and match with OO, its just for fun afterall.

Edited October 12, 2022 by adb968008

[Islesy]

Well, obviously, if we had wanted to dabble in TT, we've had two years to develop a range to bring to market (the TT range was well advanced when I left Margate), but we're not looking to get involved in the SK ego circus. The range could have been so much more, and so much more relevant (warnings from the Dev team at Margate were aired at the time), but it's positioning is too 'traditional train set' orientated.

At least it means there's an abundance of 12mm track on the market 😉

[The Stationmaster]

I think TT120 faces an uphill battle due to the popularity of N - which still occupies a far, far smaller share of the market than 00 - and even the ready availability of 'mainstream' 009.   So for TT120 I think market positioning will be crucial and - although it is an innovation where Hornby are in desperate need of an innovation to create a new market - it will inevitably take time to find its place in the wider range of scales/gauges.  The key is going to be if it will 'stick' after the initial splurge of publicity and discount offers and, just as importantly, if it will provide the necessary goods to also make it a modeller's scale which will take advantage of Peco's involvement.

 

Hornby are, I think, to be praised for having a go but at the same time it is a big gamble.  And it might in the future present them with serious choices about where to pump their  model railway investment in order to  secure the best overall result for the business and its shareholders.

[TheQ]

Hornbys greatest asset is their name.. Mum and Dad will buy a train set for the child and it will be Hornby.. The scale doesn't matter, except being smaller than 00 it will fit in the childs bedroom easier..

[The Stationmaster]

1 hour ago, TheQ said:

Hornbys greatest asset is their name.. Mum and Dad will buy a train set for the child and it will be Hornby.. The scale doesn't matter, except being smaller than 00 it will fit in the childs bedroom easier..

Exactly so and something you can regularly witness in shops which sell model railways every year as Christmas approaches.  But in my experience the trainset purchase seem to more often involve grandparents, or aunts and uncles more frequently than mums & dads.  The latter are usually to the fore when time comes to visit the shop for add-ons.    So the big question for Hornby is how many silver-surfers are likely to want to buy a model railway online without being able to discuss it with the sales person. (but I do recognise there are trainset sales by mail order companies and Argos etc are an important market area and you can't ask them very much).

 

But if you are going to sell online you need to create brand and product awareness in a big way, and for trainsets that needs penetration to a wide market area that in turn means big bucks.  The Hornby Show on tv will help - if it is aired at the right time but that apart it's either press and/or tv advertising which will have to be very carefully targetted.  And obviously it needs a sales and product support organisation which should at least be open on Boxing Day and following days (Hornby normally seem to shut down over the Christmas-New Year period).  It'll be interesting to see how they manage.

[TomE]

3 hours ago, adb968008 said:

I think TT will just dilute N interest long term

I've seen a couple of comments like this recently, and I'm not sure it will. N Gauge is an established scale, it has major manufacturers supporting it with a strong pipeline of future releases and continues to see investment to bring it up to modern standards with features like DCC Sound etc. On top of that it has an active society and extensive support from smaller suppliers. There really isn't any contest if you want to have the option to grow your layout over time and you're space restricted, the choice is N Gauge.  

The argument that people will choose TT over OO due to shrinking house sizes also doesn't hold up for me either. If that were the case N would have seen that 20%-ish figure of sales vs OO gauge start to rise, and all the available evidence is that it's actually holding steady. 

 

Despite Hornby throwing everything and the Kitchen sink at TT, and a few others dabbling around the edges, people will very quickly hit the dead end of what's available and realise if they want to progress they should have gone for N or OO. And let's be honest, Hornby have gone scurrying off to TT because people like Accurascale have come along, have listened to what modellers really want and then given it to them in spades, diminishing Hornby's position and stature in the market. They're also not working from one person's ego driven view of what they think the market should want from them, rather what they can offer the market to recapture some of the ground lost to the new kids on the block. 

 

Bachamnn appear to have taken up the challenge posed by Accurascale and are responding with improved models. 'Hornby' are having a massive sulk and are now trying to leverage the only really valuable asset they have left, the name. 

 

Tom.  

 

Edited October 12, 2022 by TomE

[Plomax]

36 minutes ago, TomE said:

'Hornby' are having a massive sulk and are now trying to leverage the only really valuable asset they have left, the name. 

 

All in your opinion of course........

 

 

[Allegheny1600]

54 minutes ago, The Stationmaster said:

But if you are going to sell online you need to create brand and product awareness in a big way, and for trainsets that needs penetration to a wide market area that in turn means big bucks.  The Hornby Show on tv will help - if it is aired at the right time but that apart it's either press and/or tv advertising which will have to be very carefully targetted.  And obviously it needs a sales and product support organisation which should at least be open on Boxing Day and following days (Hornby normally seem to shut down over the Christmas-New Year period).  It'll be interesting to see how they manage.

Well, according to Mr SK - that’s exactly what they are planning on doing! He and I think, Montana, said so during the introduction video.

 I don’t think Hornby are having a “sulk” as it’s been put, I think they are being bold with a “modern” business plan.

More to the point, everyone is clamouring about the online only plan, afaik this is purely for the TT range - for the present time! I got the impression that, should the TT range be successful, then Hornby will send it out to retailers.

[wairoa]

I don’t really see the point of TT. I had N gauge for a while but went back to HO/OO.  To me it does not seem to have the detail of OO nor the flexibility of N. 
 

I may be the only one here who thinks this, but if a manufacturer is going to take a risk with a new gauge/scale I would like to see British HO. I know Fleischmann and Lima were unsuccessful in the past, but surely someone could get it right.

 

Many would probably think UK HO more pointless than TT I suppose.

Edited October 12, 2022 by wairoa

[Covkid]

4 hours ago, Islesy said:

Well, obviously, if we had wanted to dabble in TT, we've had two years to develop a range to bring to market (the TT range was well advanced when I left Margate), but we're not looking to get involved in the SK ego circus. The range could have been so much more, and so much more relevant (warnings from the Dev team at Margate were aired at the time), but it's positioning is too 'traditional train set' orientated.

At least it means there's an abundance of 12mm track on the market 😉

You have spelt it out concisely as an SK ego circus. It's basically a TT Hornby Dublo catalogue with a few modern bitz thrown. Totally wasted. SK in his video said it is all brand new tooling, but actually it has to be 4mm tooling copied and shrunk. 

 

To have made TT a success SK should have plumped for a PEP an electrostar, a 185 and probably existing tooling 66 and 8xx. I reckon there would be many modern image modellers who woukd be sufficiently swayed by TT stuff which is not available in OO. 

 

Of course, now SK has thrown down the gauntlet of entirely online shopping, Accurascale could take the bait and release some of their contemporary rolling stock. U imagine a green or blue diesel would look very nice with 30 HUOs and a 20T brakevan.

 

Must get me a bucket of fresh popcorn !!!!

[TheQ]

I could be a grandparent Great Grand parent, so buying TT off Hornby is well within a grand parents reach... Come to that my parents are on line as well and they could order from Hornby..

I built my first home computer (from chips, not plug in boards) 44 years ago.. The use of computers online to order a Hornby railway for your child or grand child is well with in the majority of the populations reach..

 

Hornby would be better adding Amazon to their sales outlets though, if they want to go online only..

[The Stationmaster]

Except when we provide hard information and real numbers everything we express on here is opinion albeit in many cases well informed opinion.

 

2 minutes ago, Allegheny1600 said:

Well, according to Mr SK - that’s exactly what they are planning on doing! He and I think, Montana, said so during the introduction video.

 I don’t think Hornby are having a “sulk” as it’s been put, I think they are being bold with a “modern” business plan.

More to the point, everyone is clamouring about the online only plan, afaik this is purely for the TT range - for the present time! I got the impression that, should the TT range be successful, then Hornby will send it out to retailers.

All a question of picking the right 'press' - might be sensible to start with 'The Oldie' and 'Daily Telegraph'. - think demographics and disposable income.  And plus some of the various weekend colour supplements. 

 

57 minutes ago, TomE said:

snipped

 

'Hornby' are having a massive sulk and are now trying to leverage the only really valuable asset they have left, the name. 

 

Tom.  

 

Not so much 'a sulk' more an area of innovation where they can, hopefully, create a market for themselves and carve out an improved share of the total cash flowing into the hobby.  

 

What we don't know - and they might not either -  to any degree of accuracy is what percentage of that cash they are currently getting.  For example in 2021 (their financial year ends on 31 December) Bachmann's UK sales amounted to £12,398,000  and would have been almost entirely model railway related although it includes other brands such as Woodland Scenics.  Peco's turnover (excluding publications etc) was £8.5 million in the year to 31 March 2021.    I can't find any sales or turnover figures for other companies which are identifiable separately as 'manufacturers' in the UK market but you can probably reckon that they, plus retail commissioned models, will collectively be achieving a  million or so in total  turnover.  So with a definite £20.9 million from known accounts we can maybe see a total of c.£22-23 million in new sales.  

 

Against that Hornby's UK sales, in total across all their ranges, came to £37,739,000 for the year ending in March 2022 but it is not known what percentage of that came from model railways.  But in view of the prices involved it might be fair to assume that it was quite a high percentage which might well have exceeded c.£30 million.  In other words, but alas without the necessary detailed numbers from Hornby, they probably still predominate in taking a share of our money spent on the model railway hobby but Bachmaann and Peco still get a pretty good share.

 

Which leaves one big question - will TT120 allow Hornby to get an even bigger share of what we, and others, spend or - if not - will it at least allow them to maintain their share? 

[Chris M]

The Hornby TT project seems to be aimed at collectors and the “train set” market. The models planned so far would not allow a “serious”

model to be built. Whilst I like the size of TT I will stick with N for the foreseeable  future. Hornby have taken a brave step with TT; they have made a huge investment with no knowledge of how well it will be taken up. The next couple of years could be interesting. Either the range will grow rapidly or it will quietly disappear.

[D9020 Nimbus]

There are some illogicalities in Hornby's position and some odd choices to their initial product selection — a crucial thing when you're dealing with a scale where there aren't any existing ready-to-run models. They could do with some joined up thinking like Airfix displayed with the GMR range, and Dapol in both N and more recently in O.

 

Take Dapol's initial N gauge offerings, introduced when there was (temporarily) little competition — much of the Farish range was outdated, and the running quality was mediocre. Bachmann were still trying to make something of the existing tooling. So what did Dapol introduce?

 

A 14xx and auto-trailer. Followed up by a 45xx/4575 and B-set; the coaches apparently all owing something to the old Airfix models. Some of the later models were not quite joined up in the same way, but they did do the B17 and Gresley coaches, and the Hymek and milk tanks.

 

N gauge has a number of issues as a beginner's scale. Two main ones for me.

 

1. The couplings. Uncoupling is hard and coupling up can be too. In many ways they work worse now than they did years ago; the implementation on the old Minitrix range was better than any of the current mainstream offerings. Not helped by models where the coupling doesn't lift at all (Farish 08 and WD) or enough (many Dapol models, although the latest 27 seems better than before). And not helped either by Farish's interpretation of NEM355 being different from every other manufacturer …
2. Set-track. Most models nowadays are built to run on radius 2, but — unlike the situation in OO — the points are radius 1. Even the ones that Farish offers.

Bachmann do seem to have a thing about uncoupling — they are the only major manufacturer in any market not to include an uncoupling track or tool in their range, not even in OO…

[frobisher]

As I see it, AS are in the position that they have a lot of lovely CAD they can repurpose should they want to if and when Hornby make a success of it all, but for the moment they seem to be doing very nicely at eating Hornby's existing lunch.

[nightstar.train]

32 minutes ago, frobisher said:

As I see it, AS are in the position that they have a lot of lovely CAD they can repurpose should they want to if and when Hornby make a success of it all, but for the moment they seem to be doing very nicely at eating Hornby's existing lunch.

 

I doubt much at all would be reusable. Any TT model will require an entirely new design of chassis and drive train, along with PCB and speaker placement. The body shell might shrink, but detail parts will probably have to be different. And then all this will have to be tooled, which is a far far larger cost than the CAD stage. So although Accurascale have lots of lovely OO gauge CADs, it would probably only represent 5% of the work and investment needed for a TT loco. 

[andythenorth]

Was there an actual question?  🙃

 

My understanding is that AS do not see the case for TT:120 currently, and have plenty of worthwhile things to do in OO.  I might be wrong, but eh.

 

I'm buying into TT:120 personally, but does it need to be re-debated in new threads for every manufacturer?  There are already hundreds of posts about it in the Peco thread and TT:120 sub-forum.  Just my 2p 🙂

Edited October 13, 2022 by andythenorth

[frobisher]

1 minute ago, nightstar.train said:

 

I doubt much at all would be reusable. Any TT model will require an entirely new design of chassis and drive train, along with PCB and speaker placement. The body shell might shrink, but detail parts will probably have to be different. And then all this will have to be tooled, which is a far far larger cost than the CAD stage. So although Accurascale have lots of lovely OO gauge CADs, it would probably only represent 5% of the work and investment needed for a TT loco. 

 

 

Tooling is always its own cost so you can discount that from the equation.  You have that cost whether you start with completely fresh CAD or repurpose/rescale.

 

Even if the CAD is 5% of the development costs (I would dispute that) having existing CAD would probably save you 50% of that cost, and a similar amount of development time.

 

Also going to a smaller scale will reduce tooling costs which are pretty much charged by volume as I understand it, but if nothing else you could include (for 4mm -> 2.5mm) you could include 2 1/2 times the components on a single sprue at the same tooling size which could give you 60% reduction in the amount of tooling a single model would need.

 

 

[McC]

10 minutes ago, frobisher said:

 

 

Tooling is always its own cost so you can discount that from the equation.  You have that cost whether you start with completely fresh CAD or repurpose/rescale.

 

Even if the CAD is 5% of the development costs (I would dispute that) having existing CAD would probably save you 50% of that cost, and a similar amount of development time.

 

Also going to a smaller scale will reduce tooling costs which are pretty much charged by volume as I understand it, but if nothing else you could include (for 4mm -> 2.5mm) you could include 2 1/2 times the components on a single sprue at the same tooling size which could give you 60% reduction in the amount of tooling a single model would need.

 

 

 

Using n as a comparator, the CAD costs is about 75% if you are converting from OO, the tooling cost us about 75% as much as OO, the unit cost is roughly the same (75%).

 

TT thus would be somewhere in between, maybe 80-85% as much as OO.

[Covkid]

26 minutes ago, andythenorth said:

I'm buying into TT:120 personally, but does it need to be re-debated in new threads for every manufacturer?  There are already hundreds of posts about it in the Peco thread and TT:120 sub-forum.  Just my 2p 🙂

 

I did want to ask the question although it probably shouldn't be here - does the TT forum include all the new products ?

[MrTea]

If you were to judge success on the number of pages generated on RMWeb then the recent TT:120 announcements by Peco, Heljan, Gaugemaster and now Hornby would certainly fit the criteria. However, it’s the sales in the next 12-18 months that will matter. 
 

I think the AS Facebook post sums up the company’s attitude to the new scale, for now, and I can see why - they’re pretty busy with the projects they do have on. 
 

What makes Accurascale exciting for me is the level of transparency and engagement with the model railway community, especially online. But that’s partly because it’s a newer smaller and more nimble operation. My hope is that this continues, along with the delivery of great products, for the foreseeable future. 

[Islesy]

44 minutes ago, MrTea said:

My hope is that this continues, along with the delivery of great products, for the foreseeable future.

Well Ian, that's the intention! It's great to have the support from you all that we do, and we hope to grow that relationship even further across the next 12 months (which will see a number of important model announcements and developments - in 00 of course) 😆

[adb968008]

12 hours ago, McC said:

 

Using n as a comparator, the CAD costs is about 75% if you are converting from OO, the tooling cost us about 75% as much as OO, the unit cost is roughly the same (75%).

 

TT thus would be somewhere in between, maybe 80-85% as much as OO.

Thanks very insightful.

 

If you look at the Hornby RRP pricing, a £220 average for a pacific, TT £145.

As Hornby are offering a further 15% off, that outs the pacific at c£125.

Working back on that 20% from OO RRP suggests TT should be around £170-180.

 

By making it web exclusive, have they removed the trade margin and offered it back at a lower price to the end consumer ?

 

Is that sustainable longer term ?

 

if they do push this to trade, will we see a sudden price hike of the TT range ?

 

How about looking at the established TT market…

 

TT Roco BR120 diesel 36520 (DCC Ready) is 209 Euro RRP

HO Roco BR120 diesel  71790 (DCC Ready) is 218.90 Euro RRP

Rocos active range is just 6 locos this year, Pikos is more optimistic, and its encouraging they are doing the Vectron, which is the big thing in European locos right now, so its definitely not stale.

 

Whilst the TT market exists on the continent, its a tiny fraction compared to HO, and feels like its being kept relevent, rather than growth.

 

My guess is for those wanting TT the current prices are as good as it gets, and cynically if it fails it maybe pushed (with discount) to retailers at a similar price to get rid of it.

 

Similarly if it takes off, then prices will rise, and this will be seen as an introductory offer.

 

I do find it odd that Hornby's web page is quite definitely redirecting people away from OO to TT…

 

And this page reads to me as typical corporate “why us, not my competitor” slide.. a why not to do OO, rather than a why do TT…

 

https://uk.Hornby.com/hornbytt120/benefits

 

in other words.. cannabalising a OO sale for TT… 

Hornby's planned TT range (16 already declared locomotives) is already bigger than Roco’s range (5 steam, 3 diesel)  and Pikos range (14 locos)  … their aspirations are at least as great as Europes TT aspirations straight from the outset… and duplicating the 31/66.. somethings never change.

 

if I were to pick a loco for TT i’d pick the class 92. (66 is already taken), as the 92 has moved around the continent somewhat.

 

A great April fools joke next year would be to announce a full AS range being offered in TT and watch for the mushroom cloud forming over Margate.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited October 13, 2022 by adb968008