Early Risers.

[pH]

The annual updated housing assessments for the province are released in the first week of the year. The entertainment, of course after looking up our own, is looking up the assessments of family , friends and neighbours. In the current state of the housing market here, the assessments are ridiculous. 

[BoD]

55 minutes ago, Dave Hunt said:

But remember, there's only 357 days to Christmas. Best start Christmas shopping now.

 

Dave

Valerie has already bought next year’s cards and wrapping paper.  Any cheaper and the shop would have been paying her to take them away.  I just hope we are both still here to use them otherwise it will have been a waste of time.

[Ozexpatriate]

38 minutes ago, simontaylor484 said:

Then factor in the elastic relationship between price and supply and demand. 

I'm not making any observations on building supplies in the UK, but the pandemic has made building supply prices in the US chaotic.

 

If you take lumber specifically prices have been up and down all over the map. Prices plummeted with the initial lockdown in 2020, then supply shut down and as demand for large suburban houses (for remote working) increased lumber demand over short supply drove prices well above norms. The whole system has seen oscillating prices seeking an elusive equilibrium ever since.

 

The PBS Newshour recently did a feature on the "lumber rollercoaster".  There's an interview with an MIT professor who demonstrated a 'slinky' spring as a nice volatility model.

[Coombe Barton]

35 minutes ago, BoD said:

bought next year’s cards and wrapping paper

Wrapping paper - I use brown paper and string as much of decorated wrapping paper is not recyclable. I am given pressies that are more fluff than substance (I mean, how much tissue paper and wood shavings are needed to wrap a bottle of shower gel? You'd be surprised at how much just gets fired) 

 

Cards - make my own with a pic taken that year, but ran out of time this year, so everyone who got one got a Four Candles card.

[pH]

30 minutes ago, Ozexpatriate said:

If you take lumber specifically prices have been up and down all over the map. Prices plummeted with the initial lockdown in 2020, then supply shut down and as demand for large suburban houses (for remote working) increased lumber demand over short supply drove prices well above norms. The whole system has seen oscillating prices seeking an elusive equilibrium ever since.

Part of the cause:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-11-04/u-s-trade-spat-with-canada-on-trees-adds-to-wild-lumber-swings

 

This dispute has been going on for decades. The latest move happened in November 2021, when “anti-dumping and countervailing duty rates” on Canadian lumber exports to the US virtually doubled (9% to 18%).

 

The root of the problem is that most timber land in the US is privately owned, while in Canada companies are sold licences to log on Crown-owned land. Costs are therefore differently-structured.

[simontaylor484]

50 minutes ago, Ozexpatriate said:

I'm not making any observations on building supplies in the UK, but the pandemic has made building supply prices in the US chaotic.

 

If you take lumber specifically prices have been up and down all over the map. Prices plummeted with the initial lockdown in 2020, then supply shut down and as demand for large suburban houses (for remote working) increased lumber demand over short supply drove prices well above norms. The whole system has seen oscillating prices seeking an elusive equilibrium ever since.

 

The PBS Newshour recently did a feature on the "lumber rollercoaster".  There's an interview with an MIT professor who demonstrated a 'slinky' spring as a nice volatility model.

A very similar thing happened here lockdowns  &working from home led to an increase in home improvements and certainly round here there are loads of houses being built.

[Gwiwer]

Constructional hardware seems to have been a victim of both the stay-home directives and supply-chain issues.

 

Stay-home has meant a fair number of people have discovered time to get on with projects they never really found time for previously hence an upturn in demand for the likes of timber, cement, fencing materials and general building hardware.  

 

This at much the same time as the Brexit-effect of goods vehicle driver shortages which has been overlapped by the world-wide slow-down and occasional stoppage in the supply of raw materials.  

 

Even Homebase locally are short of some sizes / brands of threaded soft metal which when well made are known as screws.  Want patio slabs?  Sorry - we can't even guess when we might get the next delivery.  It's affecting the trades as much as the home DIY-ers.  We are waiting for a small plumbing repair which, because of the complexity of part of the job, requires a plumber and mate to attend.  They have been waiting four months (to date) for one small but vital part without which the job cannot be done.  It's something they would normally carry in their van.  We aren't holding any breath on this one.  

 

The Little Red Driving Box had its first outing of the year this afternoon.  We took a round-trip via Chertsey, Thorpe, Virginia Water, Ascot, Windsor Great Park and a residential detour through Ashford because I meant to turn right but found myself in the left-turn lane and wasn't safely able to make the change in time.  Some pleasant spots.  Windsor was packed.  The open-top tour buses were lined up and doing a little business; we followed one out to Datchet (why does a "Windsor" tour go to Datchet? - is there something special there we might have missed?) with three passengers braving the upper-deck.  

 

And back for roast turkey dinner which according to Dr. SEWMBO was "the best meal this year so far"   OK there haven't been too many others but I'll take that as a compliment   

 

No House of Fun tomorrow so I can relax and both head to bed and rise in the morning at my leisure.  G'night all.  Sleep safe and well.  

[Ozexpatriate]

34 minutes ago, pH said:

... most timber land in the US is privately owned

I'm not sure that's true in the west*, but it is true over the whole country - I see online estimates varying from 56% to 60%.

 

* There's a *lot* of USDA/US Forest Service administered lands around here. A lot of what the Forest Service doesn't manage is Department of the Interior/Bureau of Land Management, but that tends to be ranch land rather than forest.

 

The USDA/US Forest Service has a nice map where you can see a lot of private ownership in the southeast.

[Erichill16]

Evening All,

Congratulations to Debs on her win and PB.

Flavio, all your kitchen creations look fabulous (and professionally presented (hope that’s a complement)) and if they taste half as good as they look then the recipients will be well pleased. As to me, I look to Bear for inspiration, don’t want to set my target too high. 
Don’t talk to me about the current cost of building materials and for that matter the price of tradespeople. The new business premises are costing a fortune and taking and age.

As for my days, yesterday mum came up from Newark and mil came around as SWMBO cooked a roast for us all. I think it went quite well as mum and mil haven’t seen each other for quite a few years so had plenty to talk about. (May be Dads funeral in 2004). As neither SWMBO nor myself felt like going walking we decided to go to Lincoln for the day.

Getting late  so goodnight,

Robert

[BSW01]

Good evening everyone 

 

We stayed in bed far to long this morning, so I didn’t get a chance to look, instead I just got stuck into taking the Christmas tree and decorations down, once I’d actually got up. Apart from a break for dinner, this took me until mid afternoon to do. It is all now back downstairs in the cellar ready to go back into storage. But before I put it back, I want to seal the walls like I did in the storage area I did last year. This will be much easier to do before all the boxes get put back. 

 

We had a phone call from James this evening and he informed us that Amelia and her mum both tested positive for Covid last week and that they are both quite poorly. 

 

NHN. Well done to Debs for not only coming first, but also for beating her personal best score, but for giving the ‘cocky no it all barsteward’ a good trashing. 

[BSW01]

Goodnight all 

[PhilJ W]

Goodnight all.

[laurenceb]

Night awl

[J. S. Bach]

Night Owl from the Piedmont.

[Ozexpatriate]

Rain was forecast by the middle of the day, along with a high wind advisory. Looking out the window all afternoon, I saw little evidence of these and the day was dark and dreary.

 

Neither really materialized, though very late in the day and into the evening we have had some light rain. My range hood exhaust has a plastic flap to prevent rain ingress and heavy wind makes it flop around. By dinner time I heard it once, and while there is technically some precipitation it is very light.

 

The forecast continues to be seasonably damp and warmer than last week's freezing weather.

[jamie92208]

And it came to pass that on the 3rd daybof January, in the year ofvour Lord 2022, a decreee was made by She who must be obeyed, that the decorations must be taken down. That's taken care of this morning folks.  I might well try for some shed time in the afternoon.  

 

Interesting that Rick should mention Ashford, Middlesex I presume.   I lived there for a few months in 1971 in Ford Road. My main memory is of watching 4 COR's coming through the station with their corridor connections banging from side to side.

 

Well done to Mrs NHN.

 

Regards tonall.

 

Jamie  

Edited January 3, 2022 by jamie92208

[chrisf]

Polybear may have misunderstood me yesterday, for I watched and enjoyed both Paddington films.  I do not know which star he meant though, but for what it's worth I admire the work of Ben Whishaw, who provided Paddington's voice.

 

A few more discoveries were made in the honours list, including Matt Baker and Margherita Taylor from Countryfile.  Clearly I must accept, reluctantly, that no-one else is interested.  I must therefore find other subjects on which to rabbit.  There is apparently no shortage!

 

Twelfth Night draws near and I must prepare to take down and put away the cards which comprise my decorations.  They certainly brighten up the place for a couple of weeks.  I send more than I get, but it is more blessed to give than to receive, is it not?

 

Chris 

[Barry O]

Ey up!

@New Haven Neil.. congratulations to your good lady! Hopefully she will have an excellent year!

 

Big shortages around here are.. window frames and the double glazed units in them. Quite a few houses around here have extensions which are awaiting windows (including next door but the eediot forgot to order them and wants them in last years colour..slate grey)

 

Getting 25mm by 48mmplaned would here has been difficult (and pricey). Most of it comes from Russia and is poor quality.

 

Christmas decorations are down and packed away. The tree is outside awaiting collection.

 

Tea was my take on Chinese spare ribs (no sugar involved) and was rated excellent by her indoors.

 

I did yet more cricket admin last night then watched Jonathan Creek.

 

As for today.. a quiet day has been decided upon. Tomorrow involves a trip to get Beastie restored to full undamaged beauty followed by a trip into town apparently.

 

Stay safe!

 

Positive thoughts to all ERs but especially our missing ones!

 

Baz

Edited January 3, 2022 by Barry O

[polybear]

8 hours ago, Erichill16 said:

As to me, I look to Bear for inspiration.........

 

Bear's first step to becoming an Internet Sensation.....

 

8 hours ago, Erichill16 said:

........don’t want to set my target too high. 

 

Er, hang on a minute.......

 

1 hour ago, chrisf said:

Polybear may have misunderstood me yesterday, for I watched and enjoyed both Paddington films.  I do not know which star he meant though....

 

 

Why, Paddington of course.....who else?  It seems that the second film briefly held the crown for best film ever, according to the "Rotten Tomatoes" scores (he was scoring 100%, until some unknown, untalented T*sser  seeking his moment of glory came along and dropped it to 99%:

https://www.indiewire.com/2021/05/paddington-2-rotten-tomatoes-score-bad-review-1234641162/

"This is not my Paddington Bear, but a sinister, malevolent imposter who should be shot into space, or nuked from space at the first opportunity.”  Tw@t.

 

Well it seems that our fine friend made $228M for Paddington 2 at the Box Office (that'll keep him in Marmalade for a while) - which could explain why Paddington 3 starts production in the Spring 

Bear actually finished watching No.2 yesterday (I waited so long cos' once you've watched it, it's a bit like staring at an empty cake plate when that very last crumb of LDC has been scoffed....).  And did the fine ending bring a tear to Bear's eye?  I'm sayin' nuffink....

 

Today?  Dunno.  A MIUAIGA day methinks.  Tidy some tools away seems like a start....

[grandadbob]

Good morning all,

Breezy start,  some blue sky has appeared and it should be a mainly dry day with the chance of the odd shower.

We had a nice day at Nicki's yesterday and had a very enjoyable meal of lamb shanks.  Darren collected us and then  returned us home early evening so yours truly was able to indulge in a couple of beers, G & Ts and some wine.  Got home in time for The Boss to watch a couple of TV programmes and then at 10.00 I was able to catch up on rugby and great to see Quins grind out a win at Gloucester but it was a close run thing.

I too served a sentence at Ashford but not at the Borstal/Remand Centre which I believe is now the site of a female prison.    I did spend quite a few hours over the years having a pint or several at the nearby District Arms PH.  From 1987 to 1993 I was manager of our depot in Stanwell Rd adjacent to the railway station (before it was rebuilt it's former address  was The Old Upsidings, Station Rd) but in those days I didn't have any interest in railways. 

Today will see me climbing into the loft to retrieve boxes for the decorations which like Jamie I have to take down today.   Deep joy.  Still, that'll keep me occupied for while.

Time for some breakfast before I begin the ascent of Mount Loft Ladder.

Have a good one,

Bob.

Edited January 3, 2022 by grandadbob

[Gwiwer]

3 hours ago, jamie92208 said:

 

Interesting that Rick should mention Ashford, Middlesex I presume.   I lived there forva few months in 1971 in Ford Road. My main memory is of watching 4 COR's coming through the station with their corridor connections banging from side to side.

The Ashford formerly known as Middlesex   

 

Many people understand where Middlesex is. We ourselves live within it. Some online order forms insist on you including a county and offer it on the list. This despite it having vanished politically and postally many years ago. 
 

Ashford, of HM Remand Centre fame, is now in Surrey. 
 

This confuses a lot of people. It is listed as Ashford (Surrey) for railway purposes but remains Ashford (Middx) for many other purposes. Not a week goes by without me being asked “What’s the difference?” by a confused passenger. None - I just have to make sure they don’t want a place in Kent.  When I announce departures it is plain “Ashford”. 
 

Of 4-Cor units and their famed gangway sway my early memory is of them appearing round the curve at Fratton with electric motors humming (which was new to me at the time) and that front end swaying from side to side. These days I am a carer for the preserved one which lives not a million miles from Ashford - Kent. 

[Barry O]

Builder (?) Hard at work next door from 8am. So he has had Christmas Day and New Years Off.. he  really is the worst and slowest builder I have ever come across.. 

 

Bas

Edited January 3, 2022 by Barry O

[Erichill16]

Morning All,

Not a good start to the week.

Didn’t get to sleep until sometime after 3.00am and woke to the phone ringing.

Manager’s tested positive for the ruddy virus, well that’s my plans for the week sorted.

Robert

[BSW01]

Good morning everyone 

 

When I came downstairs this morning and looked out of the back door window, we hadn’t had any rain overnight, which is the first time that has happened for well over a week now. However, it was sunny when I got up earlier, but the skies are now turning grey and it looks like it could rain soon. But the sun is making a valiant attempt to remain in the sky, as I keep getting glimpses of brilliant sunshine. 

 

Once I've finished my breakfast I shall head off to complete the Sainsbury’s Grand Prix, as we are getting low on fresh fruit and vegetables. As I type there are no firm plans for the afternoon, but that could change before I get back home. 

 

Back late. 

[PhilJ W]

Morning all from Estuary-Land. Put the bin bags out this morning thinking today was collection day. I was wrong, it's tomorrow  Not to worry as the contents of the black bag are at the very least triple wrapped. I need to get out early as I'm out of bread and as the bakery only opens today after the holiday shut down I need to beat the rush.