Hornby 2012 - Reasonable Speculation Thread!

[Mighty]

I think we have to draw a distinction between preserved (NRM and Bluebell etc) pre-grouping steam and the vast list of pre-grouping classes that were not preserved. Yes, both date from the same period but preserved pre-grouping can be seen on the preservation lines and museums. The remainder are ghosts of the past that the majority of new modelers and enthusiasts may never read into or look at. Sadly the growth market for the major manufacturers appears to be 'one off specials', famous namers and museum pieces. The first seems to fit the pioneer diesel classes. The latter two seem to be aimed at cross-selling - you've seen / ridden on the real thing - now buy the model.....

 

In summary I think the best chances of guessing which pre-grouping steam may be produced will be to have a good look around the museums and preserved lines for working / cosmetically restored examples. (No use looking at a 'preserved' pre-grouper that's actually a pile of scrap!)

 

I think that's no bad thing. There are some fantastic pre-grouping locomotives out there that have survived a long time - the Wainwright C being an obvious one that Bachmann have picked up on, and I do hope in time that this will lead to tie-ins with other preserved SECR locomoties and stock, such as the H and P classes, as well as a Birdcage trio set that surely would be a good seller and all of which have great livery variations. When the Brighton Atlantic finally emerges from the works at the Bluebell in a few years time, we might well see that locomotive produced by Hornby or Bachmann.

 

I realise there are some lovely and much missed locomotives out there that never made it into preservation, but it must be easier for the manufacturers to work off a real locomotive than preserved drawings? Better to have some of these models than not at all, and it may well encourage those who buy the models to do a bit of research into the history of some of the pre-grouping companies. That's one reason why I became interested in the Southern and its constituent companies.

[coachmann]

Hor Stan :

That's only because, with the Big Four and post-nationalisation stuff well and truly mined, what else was left to replicate?

Errrmmm....

 

GWR : 42XX, 72XX, 48XX, 54XX, 94XX, 15XX, 16XX, 47XX.

SR : S15, Q, L1, U-1, W,.

LMS : Fowler 2-6-2T, Stanier 2-6-2T, Stanier 0-4-4T, Stanier 2-6-0, Stanier Caprotti 5, Fowler 7F 0-8-0,.

LNER : Thompson A2's, B16 rebuilds, B2, K1, K4, Claud rebuilds, Scottish D11, 01 rebuilds, J38, LNER /GC A5

BR : Duke, 77XXX Cl.3 2-6-0, 78XXX Cl.2 2-6-0, 84XXX Cl.2 2-6-2T, 9F Franco-Crosti, WD 2-10.0

 

[The Stationmaster]

So are we agreed then that Hornby should be producing a new 48xx? Together with Autocoach, fully DCC fitted with lights and passengers!!

Not agreed - I'd rather a 64XX/74XX and I think the flexibility they would offer, especially from a fresh start, plus the 'novelty' of a new type in the marketplace would be better than messing with the 14XX which needs a new chassis plus some work on the body. But no doubt we'll not see it for the Xth year running.

[The Stationmaster]

(re SK saying GW doesn't sell)

This sort of statement is often quoted and I'm curious to understand its origins. As with chinese whispers it's original meaning (whatever that was) has been transformed over the years. The fact that that Hornby's recent super-detail includes the Castle and 2800/3800 classes defies the comment.

dilbert

He's said it to me (twice) when I've buttonholed him at shows about possible new GW locos - mind you he did say it in the year before the 28XX was re-tooled so the facts might be slightly different from the repeated message (or it might have been a way of getting rid of me and my repeated 64XX lobbying ).

[The Stationmaster]

Hor Stan :

Errrmmm....

 

GWR : 42XX, 72XX, 48XX, 54XX, 94XX, 15XX, 16XX, 47XX.

SR : S15, Q, L1, U-1, W,.

LMS : Fowler 2-6-2T, Stanier 2-6-2T, Stanier 0-4-4T, Stanier 2-6-0, Stanier Caprotti 5, Fowler 7F 0-8-0,.

LNER : Thompson A2's, B16 rebuilds, B2, K1, K4, Claud rebuilds, Scottish D11, 01 rebuilds, J38, LNER /GC A5

BR : Duke, 77XXX Cl.3 2-6-0, 78XXX Cl.2 2-6-0, 84XXX Cl.2 2-6-2T, 9F Franco-Crosti, WD 2-10.0

 

And the other thing is that the 'Pre-Group' path thus far trod by Bachmann has been entirely in locos that lasted into BR days and which Bachmann have only sold in Post-Group or BR liveries. Depending on what comes in the next Barwell announcement (wrong thread I know, but ...) the only Pre-Group livery they have announced thus far is the SE&CR C (or have I missed one?). However they've been getting some useful Pre-Group exposure via the NRM - with all the risk taken out - and that might well be encouraging them to have a go on their own account.

 

Meanwhile Hornby have actually done a number of locos, of varying standard of reproduction and finesse, which are either longer lived engines in Pre-Group livery or engines which went before the Grouping, and they're having another go at it in this year's (i.e. 2011) programme.

[Guest dilbert]

He's said it to me (twice) when I've buttonholed him at shows about possible new GW locos - mind you he did say it in the year before the 28XX was re-tooled so the facts might be slightly different from the repeated message (or it might have been a way of getting rid of me and my repeated 64XX lobbying ).

 

Looks like an opposite answer to the question rather than an apposite declaration, which means there may even be a 64xx announcement next year (or not) ... dilbert

[D605Eagle]

Hor Stan :

Errrmmm....

 

GWR : 42XX, 72XX, 48XX, 54XX, 94XX, 15XX, 16XX, 47XX.

SR : S15, Q, L1, U-1, W,.

LMS : Fowler 2-6-2T, Stanier 2-6-2T, Stanier 0-4-4T, Stanier 2-6-0, Stanier Caprotti 5, Fowler 7F 0-8-0,.

LNER : Thompson A2's, B16 rebuilds, B2, K1, K4, Claud rebuilds, Scottish D11, 01 rebuilds, J38, LNER /GC A5

BR : Duke, 77XXX Cl.3 2-6-0, 78XXX Cl.2 2-6-0, 84XXX Cl.2 2-6-2T, 9F Franco-Crosti, WD 2-10.0

 

Not a dig, just a question, but why Scottish D11s, and not just all D11s?

[The Stationmaster]

Not a dig, just a question, but why Scottish D11s, and not just all D11s?

Because it was a list of Post-Group classes I would think (the 'Directors' being a Pre-Group class).

[The Black Hat]

 

(If there ever is to be a RTR S15, I have Bachmann as the likely source. They have knocked out useful goods heavies for oop North: the S15 is the SR equivalent, and there is no competing similar looking loco in their range. Is there some tender crossover possible too, when they get around to renewing their LN?)

 

Really? Must have missed an annoucement for a Q6 or Q7 then! I dont think 'oop North' has had anything!

[bluex5]

 

Really? Must have missed an annoucement for a Q6 or Q7 then! I dont think 'oop North' has had anything!

 

Sorry, I was sure we'd had an 04 not so long back. Surely a better choice than the geographically limited 0-8-0's that were pretty much confined to the Tyneside area?

[The Black Hat]

 

Sorry, I was sure we'd had an 04 not so long back. Surely a better choice than the geographically limited 0-8-0's that were pretty much confined to the Tyneside area?

 

Yeah right... and that was made really for GC operation, not for the handful that were allocated to Tyne Dock.... forgive me for thinking if thats co-incidental rather than a deliberate attempt to model a north eastern freight engine, and Im thinking more away from Tyneside and towards the County of Durham.... Sure we modellers of the North East can say models made are useful, like a B1, but I think Hornby is focusing on Anglia more than the North East. Its always the same, models made for somewhere else find use because of that georgraphical element of Eastern operations. But no one has made an NER machine, save the J72. The North East for a long time, has had nothing.

 

Still, Im hoping for a K1....

 

But on the subject of Hornbys models to come. I agree with statements that the Castle is a leap forwards and think people might be right in not wanting to replace a popular class that they would have a few examples of given the expense that models now cost. Even I have bought a new Castle thanks to a soft spot I have for Western region engines - now named 'Defiant' thanks to its irronic place on my northern layout! Its interesting what others are mentioning, perhaps it might be that S-15, but if it were thats no surprise for me.

[Guest Max Stafford]

Not a dig, just a question, but why Scottish D11s, and not just all D11s?

 

 

'Cause the Scottish ones are the best!

 

Dave.

[kevinlms]

 

Kevin, if you read my post fully, you'd see I was pointedly saying that the two models of differing quality, accuracy and pricing, could in fact cater for two very different markets and not touch each other's sales. Having the Hornby Jinty and Bachman Jinty sold alongside each other has not hurt each other's sales.

 

I did read your post on this fully and hence my comments.

 

I'm still less than convinced that excessive duplication of models is a good thing. Maybe there is such a market for some popular prototypes (Gresley Pacifics, Class 47s & Jinty's as good examples), but I'm thinking of the issue from a retailers point of view. Do retailers (big internet sellers excepted probably) really want whole shelves of duplicate models where one is (for the sake of discussion) 80% the cost of the other?

 

How much evidence is there that suggests that because 2 competing products are available, that say 750 of each get sold rather than 1000 if only a single product was available? If because two products are available & people buy both, then yes the market grows, but if most people buy only one, then its just duplication, for little gain.

 

Just some speculation of this thread which is about speculation.

 

Kevin Martin

[Ozexpatriate]

That's only because, with the Big Four and post-nationalisation stuff well and truly mined, what else was left to replicate?

Bulleid Leader???

Well, it was big. But was one ever painted green* or get a nameplate? If so, I'd say it was a matter of time.

 

* Or just 'works grey'?

[Charlie]

A shop on the south coast was looking at a ltd edition of the Leader IIRC, I'm assuming it's not got very far though,,,

[Guest dilbert]

* Or just 'works grey'?

 

Now that's something that I don't recall having been done by a manufacturer for an RTR loco - outshopped in lined* works grey for the photo session. Another livery option, but would it sell by the bucket load ?... dilbert

 

 

* as appropriate

[Ron Ron Ron]

Now that's something that I don't recall having been done by a manufacturer for an RTR loco - outshopped in lined* works grey for the photo session.

I seem to remember that Bachmann released Tornado in "works grey", although it may have only been available as a Collectors Club edition.

[Andy W]

Tornado actually ran in service on the (preserved) Great Central in "works grey" during her running in period, so a grey liveried model of her is usable as more than a static exhibit

[Fenman]

Now that's something that I don't recall having been done by a manufacturer for an RTR loco - outshopped in lined* works grey for the photo session. Another livery option, but would it sell by the bucket load ?... dilbert

Didn't Hornby do a WC/BB in photographic grey?

 

Paul

 

Edit: Yes, found it -- R2286, Fighter Command

[stevetreble]

He's said it to me (twice) when I've buttonholed him at shows about possible new GW locos - mind you he did say it in the year before the 28XX was re-tooled so the facts might be slightly different from the repeated message (or it might have been a way of getting rid of me and my repeated 64XX lobbying ).

 

SK has also been reported in an interview in the press saying the 'old' 28xx was a slow seller, but Hornby still went ahead and re-tooled it. Someone else said here that the fact the 'new' 28xx can be found at a bargain price on Hattons site is evidence that GWR doesn't sell well, so maybe SK was right! But, the new SR Schools and T9 have at various times also been for sale at bargain prices, so does that mean someone at Bachmann is nodding knowingly and quietly saying we told you SR doesn't sell? I doubt it, but I suspect whether a loco ends up for sale at a bargain price in the shops may be more a reflection of the quantities produced in a particular livery than the overall success of a model. For instance Hattons have the shirtbutton 28xx for sale at a discount, but appear to have completely sold out of the one with Great Western on the tender.

 

There may be other reasons why for Hornby the GWR hasn't sold as well as the other companies, including:

 

1. A lack of 'hero' engines compared to other companies. For instance how many Eastern region main line layouts have you seen where they have many A4s? This isn't to say the GWR didn't have significant engines, because they did, but not in a way that seems to encourage modellers to buy heaps of them if the layouts that appear in the press are any guide.

 

2. Except for the recent Grange, Castle and 28xx a lot of Hornby's GWR product has been poor, and old. GWR modellers have been blessed for 20+ years with excellent kits from the likes of Mitchell and Finney that cover many of the popular GWR prototypes. So, those with the skill and time to kit-build locos, or pockets deep enough to pay someone to build locos for them would have stayed away. I'm not sure whether modellers of the other companies have been blessed with the same range of quality kits, but if not then Hornby may have found them better sellers.

 

3. Livery choice. This is something Hornby got right with the new 28/38xx releasing the GW versions with Great Western, G W R and the shirtbutton insignia all at the same time. I'm sure this has helped sales. Even Bachmann haven't worked this one out. They have been very reluctant to release the 57xx Pannier with the Great Western markings having only just recently done it, but only as part of a train set. The fact that you can find plenty of these Panniers for sale on ebay separated from the rest of the train set indicates there is a market for this loco in this livery.

 

4. A lack of excitement in the range. Yes the Grange was new, but the new Castle and 28xx were retools of models that have been available for years. Compare that to what some of the other companies have received, and it has all been a bit ho-hum.

 

If I worked at Hornby and was contemplating a new GWR model and wanted it to be successful, then I would look at something that has never been done before, isn't available as a quality kit, covered as many modelling periods as possible, wasn't too rare, and release it in several liveries all at once. I really don't think retooling another exisiting model like the 48xx would have the same sales impact. Hopefully somebody at Hornby thinks the same way!

[phil gollin]

.

 

21 DAYS !

 

 

(At 22 days to go = 385 posts)

 

Now, 455.

 

.

[45568]

If I worked at Hornby and was contemplating a new GWR model and wanted it to be successful, then I would look at something that has never been done before, isn't available as a quality kit, covered as many modelling periods as possible, wasn't too rare, and release it in several liveries all at once. I really don't think retooling another exisiting model like the 48xx would have the same sales impact. Hopefully somebody at Hornby thinks the same way!

 

For example??

Cheers, Peter C.

[coachmann]

My sympathies go with folk like Black Hat when sods-law tells us a goddam useless Bullied 'Leader' would probably sell better than the NER Q6 0-8-0. Proof if proof were needed that modellers are outnumbered in life by collectors and trainset people.

 

The 'Merchant Navy' is another example. They only ran in as-built form for a few years before getting new shape cabs etc, yet folk want one. Why? Because it is an exciting toy whereas scores of other SR locos from 0-4-4Ts to 4-4-0s are not. At the end of the day, modellers have to be grateful when something useful comes along. The NRM Compound is a gaily coloured toy but at least enthusiastic builders can make something useful out of it. I foresee a lot of modellers buying and super-detaling the forthcoming LNER D49. Perhaps a future does lye in Railroad Models afterall. I'd be happy to see a basic Fowler 0-8-0 or Stanier 2-6-0 that I could detail up!

[Coach bogie]

 

They have been very reluctant to release the 57xx Pannier with the Great Western markings

 

Challenge for Bachmann is the same as Hornby with the 14XX. The body is based on thirty year old moulding that is only really appropriate for late 1940's onwards. The pannier body also has the topfeed and associate pipework. No pannier with GREAT WESTERN on the tanks ever had this feature so I can understand the reluctance knowing how critical the market can be.

 

As for only producing Great Western models not covered in kit/rtr form before, the list is fairly short and I cannot see either of the big two introducing broad gauge.

 

Regards

 

Mike Wiltshire

[Pennine MC]

 

I'm still less than convinced that excessive duplication of models is a good thing. ...

 

How much evidence is there that suggests that because 2 competing products are available, that say 750 of each get sold rather than 1000 if only a single product was available?

 

That's the thing though Kevin - convincing evidence either way is notoriously difficult to come by, which is why the argument never goes anywhere.

 

 

... I suspect whether a loco ends up for sale at a bargain price in the shops may be more a reflection of the quantities produced in a particular livery than the overall success of a model.

 

In most cases, yes, I believe that proper analysis will usually reveal that to be the case. But I think even a 'popular' model may be reduced to clear the last few, such is the turnover of new products nowadays - and I'm also sure that that's the expected thing, not always an admission of 'getting it wrong'.