Vanders Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Latest photo and news from Network Rail. Interesting 'remodeling' of the containers! I think that would make an excellent basis for a public education effort. Just that picture, with someone pointing at it. You'd cut the number of fools who insist on wandering around near the coast during a storm "to look at the waves" by half. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
RJS1977 Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 BBC webcam shows more containers arriving to extend the wall. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
AngryMeerkat Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Have to say, I'm seriously impressed with how well those containers stood up to the storm. A massive 'well done' to the person responsible for that idea! Listening to how bad it was here in Dorset last night, I expected to see so much more damage than there actually is in Dawlish. Winds here were regularly gusting over 80mph, my mooring is gone and the boatyard and houses flooded out, and the River Stour has burst it's banks in a fair few places. I spent the evening hoping that the NR guys and contractors were safe, and that their hard work wouldn't be undone. Luckily it seems their forward planning was spot on and they prevented/escaped further catastrophic damage. Chatting to a few locals last night and I have to say I'm disgusted by the attitude of some people just because they can't get a train. There were stories of SW Trains drivers having to pull branches and trees out from under their wheels just to try and keep some kind of service running, as well as NR staff doing everything they can to keep the trains running safely in some of the worst conditions we've seen for decades. The sheer ignorance of some people complaining about slow or cancelled trains simply beggars belief! So to all the Network Rail staff, platform staff, drivers, and anyone else responsible for trying to keep our railways running - thank you. Keep up the great work, and stay safe. Mark 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
RMweb Premium melmerby Posted February 15, 2014 RMweb Premium Share Posted February 15, 2014 You'd cut the number of fools who insist on wandering around near the coast during a storm "to look at the waves" by half. No. They be so distracted trying to get a picture on their 'phone/tablet that they wouldn't notice the 30foot wave bearing down on them! Keith Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pacific231G Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 (edited) David, I think that the "problem" is that there are several different "models" available and at any one time they differ slightly - the further out in time the more dissimilar they are. Best, Pete. Hi Pete That's not the problem it's the solution! It's how the behaviour of a fundamentally chaotic system can be forecast. It's not just about being able to predict what the weather is likely to do but as much about knowing how probable that prediction is to be accurate. Basically as I understand it they run the models many many times with slightly different observations. When the results become divergent they know that's the limit of how far in the future they can produce an accurate forecast. For as far into the future that the results remain consistent they can be fairly confident that the forecast will be reliable. The techniques for doing this have been around for quite some time but it didn't become practical until computers became fast enough to run the models enough times to get a forecast before the weather had actually happened. Imminent forecasts such as those used for aviation are nowadays very reliable though the weather can sometimes behave unexpectedly. Forecasters can't win. The forecasts for three to five days ahead are now as good as those for the next day used to be but people's expectations have also increased so "you didn't warn me it was going to rain tomorrow" becomes an equally dismissive "you didn't warn me it would rain next Saturday so the Met Office are useless" I think part of the problem with public forecasts is that most people don't really understand probability. If they did the bookies would all go broke!! Edited February 16, 2014 by Pacific231G 6 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
RMweb Premium Gwiwer Posted February 16, 2014 RMweb Premium Share Posted February 16, 2014 (edited) What did I say in the final sentence of my last post? Looking for the "Silver Lining" can get people hurt. Best, Pete. One Pete might appreciate: There is a silver lining in that these storms will eventually abate and we can rebuild what is damaged. Those containers have clearly done their job and done it well. Placing a hollow object in the path of the storm waves has allowed their energy to be dissipated into those containers which have buckled but not given way under the force. No doubt exactly as someone intended. Can we expect some at Penzance as well? There seems to be a decent hole in the sea wall with at least the Sea Siding undermined and subject to inspection possibly the running line also. Edited February 16, 2014 by Gwiwer Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
highpeak Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Hi Pete That's not the problem it's the solution! It's how the behaviour of a fundamentally chaotic system can be forecast. It's not just about being able to predict what the weather is likely to do but as much about knowing how probable that prediction is to be accurate. Basically as I understand it they run the models many many times with slightly different observations. When the results become divergent they know that's the limit of how far in the future they can produce an accurate forecast. For as far into the future that the results remain consistent they can be fairly confident that the forecast will be reliable. The techniques for doing this have been around for quite some time but it didn't become practical until computers became fast enough to run the models enough times to get a forecast before the weather had actually happened. Imminent forecasts such as those used for aviation are nowadays very reliable though the weather can sometimes behave unexpectedly. Forecasters can't win. The forecasts for three to five days ahead are now as good as those for the next day used to be but people's expectations have also increased so "you didn't warn me it was going to rain tomorrow" becomes an equally dismissive "you didn't warn me it would rain next Saturday so the Met Office are useless" I think part of the problem with public forecasts is that most people don't really understand probability. If they did the bookies would all go broke!! It's a bit off-topic but illustrative of this point: if you look at National Weather Service forecasts in the US, there is a link marked "Forecast Discussion". That will show you the reasoning behind the forecast and the degree of confidence the forecaster has in the interpretation of the different models. While it's pretty heavy with weather jargon (a lot of which has links to definitions), there's enough there for the lay person to gain some insight into what went into the forecast. Sample: http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=OKX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pete 75C Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 (edited) Like Ashcombe yesterday, I'm finding the Radio Devon links a good source of images showing the most recent damage. In the second picture, the red and blue containers are distorted so much it almost looks like explosives have been detonated inside them! Whoever had the idea to form a line of ballasted containers knows what they're doing. Without them, I can't imagine the extra damage that would have been done. Such a simple solution, and they're sacrificial too. Both these pictures sourced from BBC Radio Devon: Edited February 16, 2014 by Pete_S 7 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatB Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 My father used to tell the story of the time when he was a student and spent a summer working at the Met Office. This was back in the early '50s when weather data came from fixed stations, merchant ships and the odd weather balloon and so could be expected to be incomplete, conflicting or just plain wrong. He alleged that a daily conference would take place, during which the various Experienced Meteorologists would provide their analysis of the data available to them and, with much discussion, a general consensus would be reached as to what the weather had been doing, what it was doing now and what it would be doing over the forecast period. During this, sometimes quite heated, debate, the Very Senior Meteorologist would generally remain silent but observant. As the meeting wound down, he would nudge his gathered minions towards a consensus which he would silently ponder for a while, following which, he would get up, wander over to the window, peer out at the sky for a few moments and then either OK the result of the meeting or, alternatively suggest "Gentlemen, I I believe you may wish to reconsider your conclusions" thus kicking off another hour or two of argument. I'm happy to accept the story as BS, but I find it quite amusing BS nonetheless . 3 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
roythebus Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 BBC TV news this morning reporting that a further 10m of the trackbed has been washed away overnight and that some of the containers have gone. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
RMweb Premium cornelius Posted February 16, 2014 RMweb Premium Share Posted February 16, 2014 I'm not sure why they're wasting perfectly good shipping containers down there when there are plenty of Pacer units available to chuck in the hole. 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
RMweb Premium Gwiwer Posted February 16, 2014 RMweb Premium Share Posted February 16, 2014 I'm not sure why they're wasting perfectly good shipping containers down there when there are plenty of Pacer units available to chuck in the hole. Guess which is considered stronger? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pete 75C Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Guess which is considered stronger? Agreed - I'd take my chances riding out a storm inside a shipping container any day. Using Pacer units might result in someone a mile inland getting an unexpected new Pacer-shaped garden ornament... 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
RMweb Gold Oldddudders Posted February 16, 2014 RMweb Gold Share Posted February 16, 2014 Sadly rolling stock availability in the South West is such that Pacers are a key ingredient in the mix. Better a Pacer than no train, after all. As at Dawlish, things can only get better. 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
RJS1977 Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 They all appear to be present in the webcams. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coombe Barton Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Seems like that gap that was visible yesterday isn't there now - more containers? http://www.siteeyelive.com/monitor/bbcdawlish/camputerb86.jpg Think that the Beeb are perpetrating yesterday's news items. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatB Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 (edited) Agreed - I'd take my chances riding out a storm inside a shipping container any day. Using Pacer units might result in someone a mile inland getting an unexpected new Pacer-shaped garden ornament... Yep. A fairly standard cyclone shelter in the more remote bits of northern Australia is an old shipping container chained to buried 44-gallon drums filled with scrap iron and concrete. They work. Edited February 16, 2014 by PatB Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
RJS1977 Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Seems like that gap that was visible yesterday isn't there now - more containers? http://www.siteeyelive.com/monitor/bbcdawlish/camputerb86.jpg Think that the Beeb are perpetrating yesterday's news items. See post #1092... Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kenton Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Think that the Beeb are perpetrating yesterday's news items.Nothing new there then.... Nothing else happening other than BAFTAs, Olympics, Football, Syria and Thames Flooding. Despite the advent of a roaming reporter, I think it has become apparent in how little they move from the designated spot on a flooded road/beach/bridge. If they wandered around a little more the wider extent of the "event" could be appreciated. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
ess1uk Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Both these pictures sourced from BBC Radio Devon: _73009551_73009547.jpg _73009552_73008244.jpg The pictures are always better on the radio! 2 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
lmsforever Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Gave up watching BBC news long time ago especially during this crisis SKY have given detailed coverage from the start plus good shots at Dawlish and reasoned questioning of NR staff ,by the way if you put 70,s there it would put the fires out! Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pete 75C Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 All the talk on the news (and even in this thread) of an alternative route may well have cost this guy a few grand... http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-devon-26163597 I'd buy it though. Assuming someone could lend me the other half a million... http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-43506245.html It's rather lovely. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
cromptonnut Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 In other news, about half a mile of the Seaton Tramway has been wrecked by the storms with damage at the depot too but no news as to whether any trams were damaged. http://www.tram.co.uk/blog/events/adverse-weather-conditions/ There are some pictures on their Facebook page: https://www.facebook.com/SeatonTramway Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
gismorail Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 All the talk on the news (and even in this thread) of an alternative route may well have cost this guy a few grand... http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-devon-26163597 I'd buy it though. Assuming someone could lend me the other half a million... http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-43506245.html It's rather lovely. I really don't think he has anything to worry about that sort of money is just not going to be spent on a rail link to a remote part of the country which doesn't serve the south eastern money belt. where voters can be impressed Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pete 75C Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 In the absence of any new insider info from CK who has not been online for a couple of days, it would appear that a little off-topic good-natured banter about the resemblance of a Class 70 to a shipping container is not to be tolerated and has been the subject of a little "thread de-cluttering" by a moderator. There must have been half a dozen posts deleted since I last had a look at this thread? I see very little point adding anything else to this thread if there's a 50-50 chance it will disappear in a few hours... Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
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