Cooper craft - Cautionary notes for customers - Its fate and thoughts on an alternative

[Roy Langridge]

Ah, but don't let facts get in the way of plans based on assumption!

 

I note that one of those leading discussion about grouping to save these toolings has stated in another thread that they can't afford a £50 deposit on a model. That did make my eyebrows raise.

 

Roy

[Horsetan]

Ah, but don't let facts get in the way of plans based on assumption!

I note that one of those leading discussion about grouping to save these toolings has stated in another thread that they can't afford a £50 deposit on a model. That did make my eyebrows raise.

#alternativefacts

[hayfield]

If he does show up I am sure he will get a warm reception.

 

 

If he does show up its much better to encourage than antagonise, If you are owed money/goods better to negotiate as you may end up better off

[Craigw]

Ah, but don't let facts get in the way of plans based on assumption!

 

I note that one of those leading discussion about grouping to save these toolings has stated in another thread that they can't afford a £50 deposit on a model. That did make my eyebrows raise.

 

Roy

 

You obviously missed the one complaining about the prices of Bill Bedford wagon kits and being prepared to fork out for about 1/2 dozen Kings too!

 

Craig W

[Edwardian]

I am not going to assume that Roy is including me in his comments, not least because he has made a number of fair and sensible points with which I agree.  I have no beef with him.  But for the sake of clarity I am just going to put my position on record.

 

I have made no secret of my support for the idea of kit manufacturers taking over from CC or taking up where CC has left off.

 

I have also made no secret of the fact that I am not, presently, in a position to invest.  My modelling budget is also quite modest, at present.

 

For this reason I have restricted my contribution to general thoughts about how a business might be structured and what it might seek to do.

 

I think those who would like to throw their hats in the ring understand full well that a lot of research and careful costing needs to be undertaken.  Any venture might be deemed non-viable as a result of this exercise, but it has not, so far as I know, been completed by anyone yet.

 

I do not, therefore, think anyone is assuming that this can be done in some irresponsible factual vacuum.  It remains to be seen whether or not it can be done.

 

What is starting to iritate the t*ts off me, however, is the sheer volume of naysaying comments in the meantime that assume nothing can be done!

[Roy Langridge]

I am not going to assume that Roy is including me in his comments, not least because he has made a number of fair and sensible points with which I agree. I have no beef with him. But for the sake of clarity I am just going to put my position on record.

 

I have made no secret of my support for the idea of kit manufacturers taking over from CC or taking up where CC has left off.

 

I have also made no secret of the fact that I am not, presently, in a position to invest. My modelling budget is also quite modest, at present.

 

For this reason I have restricted my contribution to general thoughts about how a business might be structured and what it might seek to do.

 

I think those who would like to throw their hats in the ring understand full well that a lot of research and careful costing needs to be undertaken. Any venture might be deemed non-viable as a result of this exercise, but it has not, so far as I know, been completed by anyone yet.

 

I do not, therefore, think anyone is assuming that this can be done in some irresponsible factual vacuum. It remains to be seen whether or not it can be done.

 

What is starting to iritate the t*ts off me, however, is the sheer volume of naysaying comments in the meantime that assume nothing can be done!

T'was not you, no.

 

Edit: what worries me is that some people are not being as upfront regarding their ability to support. I have said I would possibly provide modelling, but not finance. Somebody (one or more) needs to make this investment, but where is it coming from. I thought I knew one, but then see comments that appear to scupper that.

 

Roy

Edited February 3, 2017 by Roy Langridge

[Clearwater]

Cf my comment on the other thread that a venture set up as "not for profit". That, cynically, could benefit some individuals but leave others materially out of pocket

 

I'm not naysaying to be clear - there needs to be realism. Personally I believe something is possible but it needs the combination of technical skills, capital and business acumen. I can help on some, I'd like to think!, but I've never opened CAD in my life...

 

David

[Dave47549]

Hmmm. Chatting with Bachmann last week, the number of shops with accounts wIthaca them, so ones with actual physical premises not just on the web, is going UP.

 

That's not the same thing though, is it Phil? Both Statements could be true, & i'd be surprised if that wasn't the case:

 

For instance, say there's 100 model shops, Bachmann have accounts with 40 of them.

Then, 15 shops close, but Bachmann doubles its numbers of accounts...

 

To bring it back on topic, my opinion as to why Coopercraft were so popular was the VFM, ready availability, & that you got everything except the paint in the bag (the same with Ratio rolling stock kits). Upgrading them with 3rd party wheels/metal buffers/3 links etc was all part of the fun - if you can easily source the bits nowadays, another stockist/availability issue.

 

Which is how I discovered the supply problem a few years back. I popped into HobbyRail, who usually kept a box of said kits, but where devoid of the wagon kits. Excellent traders that they were, they said they'd reorder. Of course, the box remained depleted.

 

I've got a small stash of unbuilt CC/Ratio wagon kits for my planned sleepy North Wales BLT. In fact I think it's some form of perversion that I've denied myself the simple pleasure of knocking them together yet. I don't really need any more, which of course translates as i'd eagerly try to snap some more up if they ever were resurrected!

[Phil Parker]

That's not the same thing though, is it Phil? Both Statements could be true, & i'd be surprised if that wasn't the case:

 

For instance, say there's 100 model shops, Bachmann have accounts with 40 of them.

Then, 15 shops close, but Bachmann doubles its numbers of accounts...

Not sure I understand you logic, I was talking about actual number, not percentages which is how I read your reply.

 

I'd argue that if you sell model railways, you want an account with Bachmann. If you don't, then what stock have you got? Find me a successful model railway shop that doesn't contain one of thier products and I'll be surprised.

 

Thus, more Bachmann accounts equals more model railway shops. Maybe back street rather than high street but more shops, not the perceived wisdom of doom and gloom. Important if considering a commercial venture like rescuing a kit range that used to be in model shops.

[brian777999]

I wonder what prompted Peco to buy the Ratio range of wagons ? They obviously thought that kit building was not dead. Is it possible that they might be sniffing the Coopercraft carcass ? They must be aware of the current problems.

Edited February 3, 2017 by brian777999

[kandc_au]

 

What is starting to iritate the t*ts off me, however, is the sheer volume of naysaying comments in the meantime that assume nothing can be done!

 

Frankly, the naysaying comments as you put it, are quite welcome in a discussion of this type.

There are a lot, that we all do NOT realise is involved and not much point having a discussion without all the facts on the table, whether they be regarded as naysaying or not.

A lot of guys with a lot of experience have made comments, which are probably regarded as naysaying.

The other side of the coin is it shows that there are issues they have experienced and pointing out to us so we do NOT have the same experiences.

 

Khris

[Pendennis]

Hmmm. Chatting with Bachmann last week, the number of shops with accounts wIthaca them, so ones with actual physical premises not just on the web, is going UP.

 

But are these all model railway shops?  Remember Bachmann now owns EFE so any new accounts generated by shops stocking this range would be added to the total, but model railway only accounts could be static or even decreasing..

[Coach bogie]

 

 

What is starting to iritate the t*ts off me, however, is the sheer volume of naysaying comments in the meantime that assume nothing can be done!

 

Basically, nothing can be done without MONEY.

 

Some of the ranges now 'listed' (note I refrained from using supplied) by CC were on open sale prior to Paul Dunn of CC deciding to buy when others did not. With one range, after careful examination of what was on offer, the further investment required to bring to market was unlikely to be recovered in the short term. As a stand alone range, return on capital employed was going to negative for several years, hence why it went no further.

 

The first company I was a director of, we had nothing; bank just laughed and we all had to mortgage our homes to get started. The first few years were touch and go, but eventually, the bank let us have our homes back.

 

How many on here are will to take that risk to produce an 1897 XY&Z Joint Railway open wagon that you may sell an unknown quantity of?

 

Again the proposed venture needs MONEY. With money you can buy practical skills, management skills, marketing skills and your project can progress quickly but without the expectation to recover your investment in the short term. 

 

Good luck

 

Mike Wiltshire

[Joseph_Pestell]

I wonder what prompted Peco to buy the Ratio range of wagons ? They obviously thought that kit building was not dead. Is it possible that they might be sniffing the Coopercraft carcass ? They must be aware of the current problems.

 

It's a long time ago now (20 years?) that Peco took over Ratio - and they had been doing the trade distribution before that, I think.

 

From what I know of the products, Ratio's tools are of a rather different type/quality to those of Kirk/Coopercraft.

 

But that said, with an existing network of retailers, Peco would be in a strong position to take on a range such as this.

[chris p bacon]

Ah, but don't let facts get in the way of plans based on assumption!

 

I note that one of those leading discussion about grouping to save these toolings has stated in another thread that they can't afford a £50 deposit on a model. That did make my eyebrows raise.

 

Roy

I'll make a comment on that, that might be relevant.

 

I have a budget for this hobby and think carefully about what I buy, I am reluctant to place deposits on items as it ties up my available budget, this may look like I don't have the money to buy anything and yet the invoices I paid in January amounted to just short of £20,000 and we're looking at spending money this month on a holiday as well as work. Does this mean I have £50 for a deposit....no, because it's a different budget.

[Edwardian]

T'was not you, no.

 

Edit: what worries me is that some people are not being as upfront regarding their ability to support. I have said I would possibly provide modelling, but not finance. Somebody (one or more) needs to make this investment, but where is it coming from. I thought I knew one, but then see comments that appear to scupper that.

 

Roy

 

Both "Thanks" and "Agree" there, Roy

 

Basically, nothing can be done without MONEY.

 

Some of the ranges now 'listed' (note I refrained from using supplied) by CC were on open sale prior to Paul Dunn of CC deciding to buy when others did not. With one range, after careful examination of what was on offer, the further investment required to bring to market was unlikely to be recovered in the short term. As a stand alone range, return on capital employed was going to negative for several years, hence why it went no further.

 

The first company I was a director of, we had nothing; bank just laughed and we all had to mortgage our homes to get started. The first few years were touch and go, but eventually, the bank let us have our homes back.

 

How many on here are will to take that risk to produce an 1897 XY&Z Joint Railway open wagon that you may sell an unknown quantity of?

 

Again the proposed venture needs MONEY. With money you can buy practical skills, management skills, marketing skills and your project can progress quickly but without the expectation to recover your investment in the short term. 

 

Good luck

 

Mike Wiltshire

 

That much seems clear.  It remains to be seen how much money is necessary and whether it will be found!

 

Frankly, the naysaying comments as you put it, are quite welcome in a discussion of this type.

There are a lot, that we all do NOT realise is involved and not much point having a discussion without all the facts on the table, whether they be regarded as naysaying or not.

A lot of guys with a lot of experience have made comments, which are probably regarded as naysaying.

The other side of the coin is it shows that there are issues they have experienced and pointing out to us so we do NOT have the same experiences.

 

Khris

 

Some are more constructive than others.  Constructive posts are always helpful.  A general Doomfest perhaps less so.

[Edwardian]

Cf my comment on the other thread that a venture set up as "not for profit". That, cynically, could benefit some individuals but leave others materially out of pocket

 

I'm not naysaying to be clear - there needs to be realism. Personally I believe something is possible but it needs the combination of technical skills, capital and business acumen. I can help on some, I'd like to think!, but I've never opened CAD in my life...

 

David

 

I agree.  I have my doubts about a not-for-profit model.  As I have said before, and I suspect you are of a similar view, I think there needs to be a sensible level of investment. If it is by a group, that needs to be a relative small group bringing relatively large stakes.  They should expect to get their money back and rather more than a nominal ROI in order to justify them risking their money and keeping it in the business rather than in any other investment.  The cost of finance/ROI needs to be built into the business model, thus putting more pressure on it, of course.

 

I think there is a general recognition - which I would not call "naysaying" - that a substantial investment is a sine qua non of the sort of scheme under discussion.  I am not aware of individual or group yet in the position to provide substantial investment. 

[Dave47549]

That's not the same thing though, is it Phil? Both Statements could be true, & i'd be surprised if that wasn't the case:

 

For instance, say there's 100 model shops, Bachmann have accounts with 40 of them.

Then, 15 shops close, but Bachmann doubles its numbers of accounts...

 

 

Not sure I understand you logic, I was talking about actual number, not percentages which is how I read your reply.

 

I'd argue that if you sell model railways, you want an account with Bachmann.

 

Really? I thought it was an example that outlets could decrease at the same time that Bachmann increase their accounts, not an absolute statement of real life facts.

 

By all means argue, I'm not pursuing it further as it's OT, & I need to go out & be careful not to trip over all these new blue box outlets that have popped up overnight.

[Joseph_Pestell]

I agree.  I have my doubts about a not-for-profit model.  As I have said before, and I suspect you are of a similar view, I think there needs to be a sensible level of investment. If it is by a group, that needs to be a relative small group bringing relatively large stakes.  They should expect to get their money back and rather more than a nominal ROI in order to justify them risking their money and keeping it in the business rather than in any other investment.  The cost of finance/ROI needs to be built into the business model, thus putting more pressure on it, of course.

 

I think there is a general recognition - which I would not call "naysaying" - that a substantial investment is a sine qua non of the sort of scheme under discussion.  I am not aware of individual or group yet in the position to provide substantial investment. 

 

I think that there is an element of confusion here (which is why it might be better to be on another thread).

 

The current "proposal" is to take over existing tooling and put items back into production. That has costs, of course, but not necessarily a massive investment financially. The snag with that approach is that old tooling is not going to produce high-quality product which is what perhaps the modern market demands.

 

Where a big investment is certainly required is if one looks to produce anything which is injection-moulded and needs new tooling. The upside is better quality and potentially a larger market.

 

Traditionally, most of the cottage-industry producers, have opted for a business-model that involves a lower tooling cost but higher production costs. It's the right choice for low-volume sales items. Only if one is sure of a very large market for a product, is a low production cost / high tooling cost business model viable.

[Roy Langridge]

I'll make a comment on that, that might be relevant.

 

I have a budget for this hobby and think carefully about what I buy, I am reluctant to place deposits on items as it ties up my available budget, this may look like I don't have the money to buy anything and yet the invoices I paid in January amounted to just short of £20,000 and we're looking at spending money this month on a holiday as well as work. Does this mean I have £50 for a deposit....no, because it's a different budget.

 

I can agree, but only to a point. If somebody starts a business which they claim to serious about and go seeking further backers to join, they have to commit to it fully (that is unless they are so well off that putting down deposits on things is small fry - in such cases they do not look for a small one month delay in spending money elsewhere. ).

 

When I set up my business everything else bar feeding and clothing the children went on hold. That meant no railtours, no new rolling-stock, no holidays, no take-aways, no meals out, no pubs... You get the message.

 

Most small businesses fail not through a lack of orders, but through a lack of cash-flow. That £50 deposit will make no difference if it is just shifted to next month, it is still spent. Three months. twelve months down the line its non-availability (and the subsequent payments that become due following that deposit) may be the straw that breaks the camel's back.

 

How would you feel if you go into partnership with somebody committing fully to then find out that they are not doing the same?

 

Roy

[Roy Langridge]

I think that there is an element of confusion here (which is why it might be better to be on another thread).

 

The current "proposal" is to take over existing tooling and put items back into production. That has costs, of course, but not necessarily a massive investment financially. The snag with that approach is that old tooling is not going to produce high-quality product which is what perhaps the modern market demands.

 

Where a big investment is certainly required is if one looks to produce anything which is injection-moulded and needs new tooling. The upside is better quality and potentially a larger market.

 

Traditionally, most of the cottage-industry producers, have opted for a business-model that involves a lower tooling cost but higher production costs. It's the right choice for low-volume sales items. Only if one is sure of a very large market for a product, is a low production cost / high tooling cost business model viable.

 

Until the business is up and running it needs capital and that means finance. What is a massive investment is different from one person to another. Ask me to invest £500K and I won't, ask Bill Gates and he probably has that in his back pocket

 

I and other posters have said we need to see the business plan - I still think the initial investment needed will be several tens of thousands of pounds and that will be capital employed for a long time. Somebody needs to provide that finance and not expect to see it back for a long time.

 

Roy

[chris p bacon]

Most small businesses fail not through a lack of orders, but through a lack of cash-flow. 

Dead right about cash flow, I've said it before here many times. I get about one pay cheque a year (although it tends to be a biggie) and the art of this job is planning your expenditure around what you've got so as not to borrow.

 

I must admit I'm not a fan of partnerships, that's based on my experiences and those I've seen working. Those where there is a clearly defined role so one is a 'sleeping partner' that stumps up cash for a defined return seem to work the best. Others where the parties are responsible for different roles tend to get into trouble. The best business model for me is Dictator......well that's what they say I am....

[Roy Langridge]

Dead right about cash flow, I've said it before here many times. I get about one pay cheque a year (although it tends to be a biggie) and the art of this job is planning your expenditure around what you've got so as not to borrow.

 

I must admit I'm not a fan of partnerships, that's based on my experiences and those I've seen working. Those where there is a clearly defined role so one is a 'sleeping partner' that stumps up cash for a defined return seem to work the best. Others where the parties are responsible for different roles tend to get into trouble. The best business model for me is Dictator......well that's what they say I am....

 

Even the model of a sleeping partner providing financing has a well known problem - that they suddenly wish to withdraw their funding / recover their investment. It has seen numerous businesses fail over the years.

 

Dictatorship is best...

 

Roy

[Joseph_Pestell]

But when did a wealthy man ever become a dictator? Oh, wait a moment, it's just happened.

[Joseph_Pestell]

Until the business is up and running it needs capital and that means finance. What is a massive investment is different from one person to another. Ask me to invest £500K and I won't, ask Bill Gates and he probably has that in his back pocket

 

I and other posters have said we need to see the business plan - I still think the initial investment needed will be several tens of thousands of pounds and that will be capital employed for a long time. Somebody needs to provide that finance and not expect to see it back for a long time.

 

Roy

 

I would agree that any project is looking at several tens of thousands. But that is way different from the hundreds of thousands implied by quantities of new tooling.