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The Crystal Ball thread - Predict the future


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Hello all, 

 

Not sure if this might get taken down over the idea of doing something akin to a predict the future thread (which naturally turn towards wish lists), but I wondered about doing one - just one thread - so that we all put down in one place what we think might be made. Rather than always repeating ourselves every time an announcement is made. The idea is that you name 5 models (in no particular order) that you think will be made and see who gets all their five crossed off first. This is new tooling so not a relivery of an existing model. So, its not a wish list - of things you'd like to see made, but instead a prediction of what you think is most likely to be made and then when announced see who gets all 5 crossed off first.

 

So my 5 that I guesstimeate will be made are:

1. Class 185 Desiro
2. HOBC - High Output Ballast Cleaner rake/set
3. NER-BR Class J21
4. YEA Perch/Porpoise Continuously Welded Rail Trains 

5. Class 319 / 769 set

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My predictions, in no particular order:

  • The Hattons "Genesis" coaches do for pre-grouping what the Hornby Peckett did for industrial, resulting in several new announcements - including an entirely new tooling for Hornby's venerable clerestory coaches.
  • Class 745/755 FLIRT
  • GER T26/E4
  • "Big Bertha" Lickey banker
  • Festiniog Double Fairlie (already announced, it seems)

I think all of these are plausible. I've already mentioned in the Genesis thread that the Hornby clerestories are due a retool, and this might be what prompts it. A FLIRT is an obvious addition to the contemporary line-up. An E4 is a bit more left-field, but it's an unusual prototype that has the advantage of longevity so a model could carry several different liveries as well as being distinctive. Big Bertha is firmly in the one-offs and oddities category, but recent history shows that these do sell - often surprisingly well. And with RTR 009 now very much a thing, it can't be that long before the Double Fairlie makes an appearance.

 

 

Edited by MarkSG
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1 hour ago, MarkSG said:

My predictions, in no particular order:

 

  • Festiniog Double Fairlie

I think all of these are plausible. I've already mentioned in the Genesis thread that the Hornby clerestories are due a retool, and this might be what prompts it. A FLIRT is an obvious addition to the contemporary line-up. An E4 is a bit more left-field, but it's an unusual prototype that has the advantage of longevity so a model could carry several different liveries as well as being distinctive. Big Bertha is firmly in the one-offs and oddities category, but recent history shows that these do sell - often surprisingly well. And with RTR 009 now very much a thing, it can't be that long before the Double Fairlie makes an appearance.

 

 

 

Pay attention 009...

 

https://www.hattons.co.uk/newsdetail.aspx?id=566

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Did The Black Hat have a premonition that the Annual Poll for new models wasn't going to be re-run this year?

 

With a Crystal Ball that good, methinks our learned friend knows very well what's on the manufacturers' drawing boards just now!!!!

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I normally find that things are announced either when I buy/start a kit or a model kit is released.

 

GWR 15XX 0-6-0PT - Nucast Partners have reissued it and Warren Shepard have announced an etched kit

LBSC K Class 2-6-0 - Bought one a little while ago. Always seemed to do well in the wishlist

SECR R1 0-6-0T

LBSC E2 0-6-0T 

 

Something a bit left field - LNER Coronation set

 

 

Jason

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Ok, here’s my 5, in ‘most likely’ order:-

 

1) Class 126 dmu. 
2) GWR Collett Restaurant Car as rebuilt by Hawksworth. There are no RTR GW catering vehicles to current standards. 
3) LMS ‘Austin 7’ 0-8-0. 

4) Class 104 dmu. 
5) B16 4-6-0. 

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1) Class 377 electric unit

2) NER J21

3) Class 700 electric unit

4) 4-CIG electric unit (OK, wishful thinking on my part, but this is THE major gap in 1960s third rail stock - you cannot model the Brighton main line between the mid 1960s and early 2000s without one, and the 4-VEP has already been done, so why not complete the Brighton main line scene)

5) SECR O1

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3 hours ago, 'CHARD said:

Did The Black Hat have a premonition that the Annual Poll for new models wasn't going to be re-run this year?

 

With a Crystal Ball that good, methinks our learned friend knows very well what's on the manufacturers' drawing boards just now!!!!


If only! I actually read that after I had submitted this for posting. Its a pity as I think the poll was useful, but this could be interesting too to see what we all think is coming, rather than actually what we specifically want most. 

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3 hours ago, Steamport Southport said:

I normally find that things are announced either when I buy/start a kit or a model kit is released.

LBSC K Class 2-6-0 - Bought one a little while ago. Always seemed to do well in the wishlist

 

Jason

Yes please. However, I'm not wishlisting, you understand.

 

No, not wishlisting at all. Not even in Southern olive green. No, not wishlisting at all......

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Not a model, but I predict that model shows and "normality" will not return to the UK as quickly as we might hope.

 

It's not a model railway show, but I saw that a show was cancelled in 2021, the reasons are sobering :-

 

"...we are unable to proceed and Bolton Scale Model Show 2021 is officially cancelled.  The reasons for this are numerous, examples are given below, but are not restricted to:

  • Local special measures due to increased Covid transmission rates in the North West of England affecting organisers, club members and potential exhibitors/traders/visitors.
  • The demographic of our show is liable to high impact from Covid.
  • Imposition of a limit of 500 people maximum by the venue, including all visitors, exhibitors and traders (for comparison, the venue normally holds 1500 people and we achieved this in 2020). 
  • Restrictions on hall layout:
  1. No stands along external facing walls.
  2. A minimum spacing of 4m between each trader or exhibitor table.
  3. A maximum of 1 person behind each 6ft of frontage (Trade and Exhibitor).
  • No provision of catering by the venue.
  • A maximum of 2 people per toilet facility at any given time.
  • No venue support to setup/strikedown.
  • Health and safety considerations for post-show strike down and waste disposal.
  • Proposed increase to venue hire cost due to requirement for post-show deep cleaning.

Obviously the hall in question might be particularly 'picky' on their rules, but some, notably the venue limit, might become common.

 

Sorry.

 

jch

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Ah, I see, a somewhat restricted segment of the future, I read the threads title, and thought it was going to be about , flying cars, household robots and holidays on Mars, that sort of thing.

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