New diesel and petrol vehicles to be banned from 2040 in UK

[pH]

And how will a battery cope with providing motive power and heat/cooling for passengers at temperatures of minus 40 or plus 40? (both of which have been recorded in North America this year)  - http://batteryuniversity.com/learn/article/discharging_at_high_and_low_temperatures

Edited July 27, 2017 by pH

[Ozexpatriate]

Living in Australia, it's going to be fun if they bring in this BS.

What percentage of Australians live within say 50km of either their workplace, or the CBD of Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Adelaide or Perth?

 

Sure, Australians will need something other than an EV to cross the Nullarbor, but I bet you that an EV could cover 90% of all car journeys taken in Australia today and there are no range limitations with hybrids compared with petrol-only cars.

 

Distances are no different in scope in the US. The US isn't going to ban petrol (gasoline) anytime soon, but the level of EV usage is increasing dramatically all the same. The initial production run for the Tesla Model 3 was sold out as soon as it was announced.  The first production models will be delivered on Friday. If you order one now, it won't be delivered until 2018.

[PatB]

G'day Gents

 

Living in Australia, it's going to be fun if they bring in this BS. With the distances we have over here, there's not many places we'd be able to go with an Electric car, with hundreds of miles between towns, and I take a 22' caravan on holiday with me when I go away, I'd hate to think how for I'd get with that on the back of a EV..........500 meters  before a recharge.

 

And what about our 100 ton + road trains, how big a battery will they need.

 

manna

 

 

What percentage of Australians live within say 50km of either their workplace, or the CBD of Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Adelaide or Perth?

 

Sure, Australians will need something other than an EV to cross the Nullarbor, but I bet you that an EV could cover 90% of all car journeys taken in Australia today and there are no range limitations with hybrids compared with petrol-only cars.

 

Distances are no different in scope in the US. The US isn't going to ban petrol (gasoline) anytime soon, but the level of EV usage is increasing dramatically all the same. The initial production run for the Tesla Model 3 was sold out as soon as it was announced.  The first production models will be delivered on Friday. If you order one now, it won't be delivered until 2018.

 

Whatever may be the case in their Crocodile Dundee fantasies, most Australians spend 99% of their driving time in an area roughly equivalent in size and urban density to the English Home Counties. Most do not tow caravans/large boats across the Nullabor, or even into the country areas of their own state. In the days when I commuted daily my 100-120 km daily round trip was looked upon by most of my peers as an almost intergalactic distance to travel every day. Whilst that's now changed a bit as the affordable bits of Perth have sprawled hugely, I'd still be regarded as a bit weird by many.

 

So a pure electric car, charged overnight (and most Australian car commuters do have their own dedicated parking at home) would, even with today's technology, would adequately serve the transport needs (as opposed to the desires) of the majority. Those living outside the major urban centres have always been, and almost certainly will always be, quite generously subsidised (whether financially or by exemptions and/or supplements to regulation) for their own particular needs. I have no problem with this, given my own ambition to disappear into rural obscurity without too much discomfort and inconvenience, but it needs to be recognised that no Australian government can afford the political backlash that would result from doing anything to seriously disadvantage "The Bush".

 

It also needs to be recognised that neither technology nor society remain static. Something noticeable in this thread is an assumption by some that in 2040 (in the UK) or some unspecified date (in Australia) our cities, lifestyles, energy infrastructure, vehicle technology etc. will be just like they are in 2017 but more so. May I respectfully suggest that this is almost certainly a false assumption. Even using the most basic means of predicting progress (ie looking at changes over the last 23 years),  the one thing that we can be fairly confident of is that 2040  will look very unlike 2017.

[Ozexpatriate]

... In the days when I commuted daily my 100-120 km daily round trip was looked upon by most of my peers as an almost intergalactic distance to travel every day. ...

My brother had a commute of about 65 km each way - this was an inter-urban commute with a lot of (busy) highway. He hated it and found a position much closer to home.

 

My cousin's husband (a police officer) lives in a semi-rural area. For a time he had a cross-town 55 km commute from one extreme edge of the city to the other, with the most direct routes going through the CBD. Now that he is on a glide-path to retirement, this assignment is over and he's now in a desk job closer to the CBD.

 

These commutes are worse than most of the Australian commutes that I know of, though I'm sure, like everywhere else, commutes are on average getting further, but particularly longer in duration.

[Dunsignalling]

So the Government in 2040 will buy every petrol and diesel car left on a scrapagge scheme ? .

 

Pure fantasy twaddle, until the electric car is viable they are living in fantasy world. The Nissan Leaf manages if you are lucky 100 miles on a charge = no thanks its useless, other than a town car .

The announcement was of a ban on new petrol and diesel cars being sold, nothing was mentioned about removing existing vehicles.

 

Also, when listening to the more in-depth parts of the news reports of this story yesterday, it became clear that the bill only legislates for new vehicles powered solely by petrol or diesel engines, so there is a presumption that hybrids will continue to be required for those who live/drive outside urban centres.

 

Reading more deeply into Volvo's announcement that they intend to cease introducing new IC-powered models much sooner, exactly the same distinction is made.

 

The next stage, possibly earlier than 2040 (I'm guessing) is that those of us driving cars with any IC capability (including hybrids) will be forced to leave them at the edges of major conurbations and summon autonomous electric hire cars or use park-and-ride facilities. 

 

John

Edited July 27, 2017 by Dunsignalling

[jjb1970]

This is not just a UK move, it is happening internationally. All France and the UK have done is to pluck a number out of the air (2040) as a time limit for a transition that is happening anyway and which will probably be completely well before 2040 simply as a result of market forces. China is pumping $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$’s into electric vehicles and renewable energy and has very ambitious plans. Automotive manufacturers in Europe, Japan and the US have been shifting more and more of their R&D development and future model plans to EVs and PHEVs for a few years. Take a look around the major (and not so major) auto makers and have a look at the prominence of EVs in their plans and the declining interest in developing new IC engines. People are increasingly aware of environmental issues and behaviours are altering. And that is a good thing. What gives me hope for the future is that we are going over a tipping point from a position where interest in things like renewable energy and clean technologies was driven by government subsidies and punitive measures to a position where consumers are demanding it, industry sees it as the best choice for commercial reasons and it is just the better choice regardless of the saving the world aspects. Which means it is no longer an extension of government policy and coercion but a sustainable long term change driven by society.

We have no idea what the world will be like in 2040. Will we still have cars? Will we still want cars? Will cars be a small niche interest of diehard fans in the way there are still people who ride horses or go sailing? Who knows, but I have confidence we’ll have done an awful lot to reduce pollution. I do believe that domestic micro-generation and energy storage will I believe become the norm within the next few years and that transport will progressively de-carbonise. Even shipping is moving towards much cleaner technologies, the last hold out of high sulphur fuels.

[Horsetan]

.....We have no idea what the world will be like in 2040. Will we still have cars? Will we still want cars? Will cars be a small niche interest of diehard fans in the way there are still people who ride horses or go sailing? ....

How many of us will still be alive?

Edited July 27, 2017 by Horsetan

[jjb1970]

How many of us will still be alive?

We can't say with absolute certainty that we'll still be alive at the end of today, never mind in 2040.

[Dunsignalling]

This is not just a UK move, it is happening internationally. All France and the UK have done is to pluck a number out of the air (2040) as a time limit for a transition that is happening anyway and which will probably be completely well before 2040 simply as a result of market forces. China is pumping $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$’s into electric vehicles and renewable energy and has very ambitious plans. Automotive manufacturers in Europe, Japan and the US have been shifting more and more of their R&D development and future model plans to EVs and PHEVs for a few years. Take a look around the major (and not so major) auto makers and have a look at the prominence of EVs in their plans and the declining interest in developing new IC engines. People are increasingly aware of environmental issues and behaviours are altering. And that is a good thing. What gives me hope for the future is that we are going over a tipping point from a position where interest in things like renewable energy and clean technologies was driven by government subsidies and punitive measures to a position where consumers are demanding it, industry sees it as the best choice for commercial reasons and it is just the better choice regardless of the saving the world aspects. Which means it is no longer an extension of government policy and coercion but a sustainable long term change driven by society.

We have no idea what the world will be like in 2040. Will we still have cars? Will we still want cars? Will cars be a small niche interest of diehard fans in the way there are still people who ride horses or go sailing? Who knows, but I have confidence we’ll have done an awful lot to reduce pollution. I do believe that domestic micro-generation and energy storage will I believe become the norm within the next few years and that transport will progressively de-carbonise. Even shipping is moving towards much cleaner technologies, the last hold out of high sulphur fuels.

I think it's almost inevitable that there will be some enthusiast element which still wants a motoring experience, just as there are those today who relish using cars of a bygone age.

 

Indeed, as railway enthusiasts, we are probably more guilty than most on the nostalgia front. 

 

At some point, hopefully after I'm no longer around, I can envisage the running of both old trains and old cars being curtailed. Horses produce greenhouse gasses, too, even if you discount the mileage a lot of them seem to cover in diesel-powered horse boxes. 

 

Taking things to a reasonably logical conclusion, the day when we won't ultimately need to go anywhere, but can interface with anyone, anywhere from home probably isn't any further off than 100% electric transport. Whether we will want to is open to debate, but I can easily envisage a situation where air travel might be rationed on environmental grounds. How long before holidays or business meetings in deep immersion VR become indistinguishable from the real thing? 

 

Maybe everyone should get a personal CO2 allowance, if one wishes to enjoy old motorbikes or cars, fine, if you want to fly off on holiday, equally fine, but you can't do both......... 

 

John

Edited July 27, 2017 by Dunsignalling

[Horsetan]

We can't say with absolute certainty that we'll still be alive at the end of today, never mind in 2040.

Exactly.

[Arthur]

 

I very much take the Old Testament view,

 

 

 

 

.

[Metr0Land]

Of course we all know that you can prove almost anything with statistics, however I am quite surprised by the statistics being totted out that eg 95pct of journies are under 30 miles (other statistics available).

 

Whilst that may be the case, sooner or later most of us will want to go on holiday/visit relatives etc involving longer journies.

 

What are we supposed to do? Have a 2nd car for longer journies? Spend hours at charging stations en-route?  Members outside the UK might be unaware that service stations on motorways have a 2 hour max stay or after that charge ripoff parking rates.  This could be a nice little earner, having trickle chargers that take ages to recharge batteries at M-way service areas.....

[eastwestdivide]

Longer journeys - will we see the revival of the coaching inn concept, where instead of changing horses, you swap battery packs. Would need some standardisation and design considerations, but in principle no worse than having standardised fuel pumps/nozzle sizes.

[PatB]

Of course we all know that you can prove almost anything with statistics, however I am quite surprised by the statistics being totted out that eg 95pct of journies are under 30 miles (other statistics available).

 

Whilst that may be the case, sooner or later most of us will want to go on holiday/visit relatives etc involving longer journies.

 

What are we supposed to do? Have a 2nd car for longer journies? Spend hours at charging stations en-route?  Members outside the UK might be unaware that service stations on motorways have a 2 hour max stay or after that charge ripoff parking rates.  This could be a nice little earner, having trickle chargers that take ages to recharge batteries at M-way service areas.....

 

I can envisage circumstances, even  now, where it would actually make more economic sense to rent a suitable vehicle for the occasional longer journey/heavy towing task/moving stuff episode than it does to permanently own such a vehicle and have to cough for its running costs 365 days a year.

 

And, again, the assumption that an EV will not be able to do this stuff in 2040 remains a heroic one. In many ways, the EV is at a comparable stage of practicality to where petrol cars were c1914. That is, the basic architecture fairly settled and they are becoming a regular, if still noteworthy, sight on the roads but their all round practicality is still a little limited and they are still very expensive in comparison to average incomes, at least in Europe, although the Model T is starting to change that elsewhere. Fast forward 23 years from there and it's 1937. Compare a state of the art 1937 car to one from 1914. Maybe not one from the British industry, hobbled as it was by a daft taxation regime and a captive market. Instead, perhaps look at the progenitors of the VW Beetle, or the sort of thing the likes of Tatra were working on. Cars fully capable of reliable daily use, not just in 1937 but, with a little effort, even now.  I was using a 1960s Beetle, not so very different from those 1930s prototypes, as 20,000 km a year daily transport in 2007, so it was definitely a "modern" design. I suspect the difference there is at the bottom end of what we are likely between now and 2040.

Edited July 27, 2017 by PatB

[Nearholmer]

We might revert to a former travel pattern, and use rail for the longer trips, reserving the EV for shorter trips. It's known that younger people already have a different relationship with cars, and are heavy rail users, than boomers.

 

Currently in mid tedious journey on M25, two children in the back ........ they will remember having their day out curtailed by traffic.

 

Kevin

 

(my wife is driving, in case you're worried)

[Reorte]

Pity there's no simple, practical way of storing the petrol engine and fuel tank in the garden shed and just swapping them in when I need to do a longer journey (and hybrids strike me as the worst of both worlds tax dodge).

[Karhedron]

Driving used to be fun - it often still is up here.

 

This is something I have never been able to understand. I have been driving for over 20 years and it has never been anything other than a necessary chore to get from A to B. The kindest description I would ever give of a car journey is "painless" but it is never something "fun".

[Edge]

So, electric and fuel cell vehicles only. And yet they have cancelled the British round of Formula E for this year, and quite possibly next year too. Hmm

[jcm@gwr]

I very much take the Old Testament view,

 

 

IMG_0523.JPG

 

 

.

 

I'm of the understanding that he owned a Stag, after all, the quote is:-

 

"and God burned up the desert in his Triumph"

[Arthur]

Very good Jeff ,

 

I understand he had a few Heralds too....

 

.

Edited July 27, 2017 by Arthur

[alastairq]

 Will there be a run on these??  

 

[Dunsignalling]

I'm of the understanding that he owned a Stag, after all, the quote is:-

 

"and God burned up the desert in his Triumph"

That would be a Bonneville, surely?

[Reorte]

This is something I have never been able to understand. I have been driving for over 20 years and it has never been anything other than a necessary chore to get from A to B. The kindest description I would ever give of a car journey is "painless" but it is never something "fun".

I guess hurtling around like a lunatic might be fun for those without the brains to keep that to the circuit. Personally speaking I find driving along motorways to be a pretty dull experience but off them, if the roads aren't busy, I often find it quite a pleasant experience, to the point where I'll happily have a journey take an hour longer by going around the back roads (haven't found a good non-motorway route to get me to the other side of Manchester yet though). The trick is to never be in a rush and not mind about the time.

[PatB]

I've lived and breathed IC vehicles since before I can remember. Cars, bikes, trucks, some boats, all have at least interested me, and I've owned something interesting (though not necessarily working ) pretty much continuously since shortly after my 14th birthday in 1981. Whilst my choices have pretty much always been limited by circumstance or finance, I've spent most of my adult life almost incapable of conceiving of not getting pleasure from owning, fiddling with or driving/riding IC powered vehicles. I am, and have always been, a petrolhead.

 

I still enjoy driving/riding. I (generally) like hopping in a car (any car) or on a bike and going somewhere. I like pretty much every aspect of it. I like doing it. I like trying to get as good at it as I can ("good" in this context generally being in an IAM/smooth/efficient sort of way, rather than a wannabe racer sort of way). I like seeing the scenery change.

 

And yet, as I get older I find that it's all less important to me than it was. My only working motorcycle is currently for sale, I find myself speculating on how chezB could become a one-vehicle household (probably not pracctical under current circumstances if I'm honest) and I find picking up the tools to do even essential maintenance to be a chore rather than a pleasure. Age seems to be providing me with some perspective on what's really important and some realism as to what I might feasibly afford.

 

I'm at the stage where, as long as my transport needs can be met, my desires wrt vehicles are not that critical to my overall happiness. I'd like to own a big grumbly V8, another Land-Rover, a Shorrock supercharged Ford 100E, a Harley Shovelhead bobber and any number of other weird and wonderful devices. But I'm not going to notice some great, yawning gap in my life if I don't. I have other things with which to fill such time as I have left, most of which are cheaper and less hazardous and probably less prone to government/pressure group interference. The vehicles that really excite me were never going to be mine anyway. After all, there's only one Napier-Bentley and I'm fairly confident that it's worth more than I've earned, in total, over my entire lifetime.

 

And so, if when I'm 73 or so, I can no longer buy an IC engined vehicle, I don't think it's really going to affect me much.

[298]

So, electric and fuel cell vehicles only. And yet they have cancelled the British round of Formula E for this year, and quite possibly next year too. Hmm

The British F1 GP isn't safe either, whilst Mercedes are dropping the DTM for Formula E.