Hornby APPOINTS NEW CEO

[Anglian]

I don't suppose they had a decorated sample of the H class with them did they?

[Mike Storey]

I would guess at yes as the ‘real thing’ will be and Hornby are deliberately holding back until the real thing is in service before committing to the production run.

 

Terrific. Seriously?

[adb968008]

1 It is necessary to recoup investment before forking out for a second batch

2 It is wise to wait and see if the first batch sells before ordering a second batch.

3 Booking production slots often has to be done years in advance. You'd need to book a second slot even before delivery of the first models if you wanted to avoid 'feast and famine'.

4 The manufacturer requires a minimum number in order to produce. Thus, for instance, you can have a run of, say, 500each in 10 different liveries to give you your 5,000 run. The expenditure to get 5,000 in one go is substantial. No one in his right mind orders 5,000 more until he's seen how well the first batch goes.

Usually the return of 'oldies' means that new tools have been made because the manufacturer thinks it's worthwhile. Some models may have been retooled more than once because, the tools are worn out, some tools may have been lost in transit, the manufacturer is unable to figure out which tools are intended for which model (this was true of Hornby with both Dapol and Lima tools that were acquired).

It's a mistake to think that old tooling makes production cheap. Old tooling is just that - it may not even be usable on modern machines. If it is usable, it may produce parts which require outdated assembly techniques and skills. (CJL)

 

agreed..

 

 

 

I fall back to my original point, it’s not “how many you make how often”, but “what you make for what price”, if you’ve misread the customers apetite it doesn’t matter, what you make or when.

 

I think theres several models out there now, of all manufacturers and GA and special editions, that were influenced by heart based decisions rather than the head with a perception that the public will pay whatever price is asked of them.

 

Not sure what will happen to them in the longer term, but I'd imagine there putting holes in pockets and constraints on plans, should the downturn come it may not be pleasant as when consumers are impacted that only lowers their spending power and discounting to clear has to be much more brutal, voluntary or by administration.

 

In short, every model has it's value, the savvy business gets the mix right at the start, the others find out to their cost later.

Of course the lower risk way is to get customers to pay in advance, though even that has risks.. for example the Cl 74 was priced 2 years ago, I don't know if the maths still stack up today.

 

Returning to the higher level view, Remember Hornby's Customer is the retailer...given Model Railway sales (£22mn) is 2/3rds via two channels (38%, via independent retailers, and 29% in Europe), this is quite vulnerable to Brexit and Economic winds, 19% would be assumed to be very profitable business, as this represents the direct sales channel to consumer from Hornby direct.

 

By comparison Scalectrix (£12mn) however is much more stable with 39% via more reliable National retail chains, and an even split  (of approx 10%) across each of Europe, UK Independents, US etc.

 

Just to repeat...

 

 

if you’ve misread the customers apetite it doesn’t matter, what you make or when.

 

If independent retailers cut back or defer (reduce their apetite for stocking models on shelves) lets say 30%* of orders due to the new 2year warranty policy, high prices, economic uncertainty etc (and as they are more likely to be financially sensitive businesses anyway) this poses a big risk to the business, We may find in 2018 the inventory figure increases once again...

 

* 30% may sound harsh, but if they only order 3 of each model, reducing it to 2... is 30%... if they only ordered 2 and cut to 1.. thats 50%.

Edited October 7, 2017 by adb968008

[SteveC32]

Terrific. Seriously?

Yes seriously, I was ‘well pleased’ with the news.

[Hilux5972]

Sure, 50007, with GW150 unweathered with black backed nameplates, and 50010 in Large Logo Blue, with blue roof, are in the background of these images... neither of them are the Lima ones, and Hornby hasn’t done either, Kernows is known for seeding it’s background images ahead of the surprise... they had 47701 and 47076 plus a GW150 class 47 hiding in the background of the 4TC a few weeks ago,47701 was since announced.

 

https://www.facebook.com/KernowModelRailCentre/photos/pcb.1775752442466295/1775752212466318/?type=3&theater

Ahh I didn’t look close enough at that image when I seen it on Facebook. I just assumed it was the R2408 Sir Ed and a renumbered Large Logo in the background. Good spotting. Time will tell I guess.

[Dunsignalling]

I agree with many of your points.

The lack of rarity value certainly doesn’t help, In an industry that’s promoted to collectors.

 

The market is such now, than any operation with access to £150k can go to a website and ask a factory in China to make them a tooling, considering an average home is £225k this makes the pool of potential risk takers slightly larger than 20 years ago and as people are more willing to crowd fund, that risk further declines. Should the £ increase in strength, then this gene pool will only grow.

 

Maybe in an uncertain economy, they should size their business in a way that they are profitable without making locomotives at all, then produce in limited quantities a few releases a year ?

 

The problem with this (apart from the mass loss of jobs), is Hornby has a fortune invested in locomotive toolings.. without writing them off the only way to make a return from them is to keep using them... catch 22, especially when some are over priced relative to the markets interest to pay and one which is often becoming saturated..but one solution is to sell the toolings themselves.

The whole point I was making is that Hornby are far more likely to be able to sell the output from their tooling for the best price (to them) if they don't use it too often.

 

A heavy demand for the next releases of Pecketts has been built up because they haven't followed too quickly. Some retailers will discount them (but probably by less than usual), just because that fits their business model, but its a safe bet that Hornby won't need to incentivise retailers to take a surplus off their hands.

 

I'm guessing that Hornby came a bit unstuck with several quick follow ups in relatively recent times; those of  D16s, J15s, S15s, 700s and GWR big tanks were all available at heavy discounts from Day 1. The "big boys" were able to do this before local model shops even received deliveries, implying that Hornby needed the retail trade to take them off their hands pretty sharpish. That will have cost them, and fairly dramatic figures have been rumoured. However, as I have no way of knowing their veracity, I won't repeat them on here.  

 

The snag with selling the tooling of models that have already fulfilled their immediate sales potential is that, until the model has been unavailable for some time, the buyer won't be able to make money from it any more than Hornby can. The only way to shift it will be at very low prices, enabling the purchaser's ex-Hornby models to heavily undercut the prices of new Hornby releases (i.e. exactly what is already happening with Hornby's own surplus B17s).

 

The fact is, that demand will not recover unless such tooling is left on the shelf for a couple of years - it's not like Hornby don't have plenty of other things that do keep selling out quickly whenever new versions get released - Bulleid Light Pacifics, for example. If you don't grab those within a couple of weeks of release, you struggle to find one.   

 

Hornby's best plan in the case of the B17 is not to order any more until a year after all the surplus stocks have disappeared. In the meantime, the tooling is of no real value to themselves or anyone else. 

 

John

Edited October 8, 2017 by Dunsignalling

[The Stationmaster]

The whole point I was making is that Hornby are far more likely to be able to sell the output from their tooling for the best price (to them) if they don't use it too often.

 

A heavy demand for the next releases of Pecketts has been built up because they haven't followed too quickly. Some retailers will discount them (but probably by less than usual), just because that fits their business model, but its a safe bet that Hornby won't need to incentivise retailers to take a surplus off their hands.

 

I'm guessing that Hornby came a bit unstuck with several quick follow ups in relatively recent times; those of  D16s, J15s, S15s, 700s and GWR big tanks were all available at heavy discounts from Day 1. The "big boys" were able to do this before local model shops even received deliveries, implying that Hornby needed the retail trade to take them off their hands pretty sharpish. That will have cost them, and fairly dramatic figures have been rumoured. However, as I have no way of knowing their veracity, I won't repeat them on here.  

 

The snag with selling the tooling of models that have already fulfilled their immediate sales potential is that, until the model has been unavailable for some time, the buyer won't be able to make money from it any more than Hornby can. The only way to shift it will be at very low prices, enabling the purchaser's ex-Hornby models to heavily undercut the prices of new Hornby releases (i.e. exactly what is already happening with Hornby's own surplus B17s).

 

The fact is, that demand will not recover unless such tooling is left on the shelf for a couple of years - it's not like Hornby don't have plenty of other things that do keep selling out quickly whenever new versions get released - Bulleid Light Pacifics, for example. If you don't grab those within a couple of weeks of release, you struggle to find one.   

 

Hornby's best plan in the case of the B17 is not to order any more until a year after all the surplus stocks have disappeared. In the meantime, the tooling is of no real value to themselves or anyone else. 

 

John

 

In recent years Hornby seem to have encountered distinct problems asa  result of following their long established pattern of Year 1, then Year 2, then Year 3 relseases for new models.  The Hawksworth coaches seem to have fallen into misinterpretation of sales data as did some of the Southern EMUs hence lots of surplus Year 2 stock to clear plus various locos you have mentioned.  Maybe they've learnt their lesson as the rush with a Year 2 Peckett has in fact turned into a more sedate approach and effectively has merged into Year 3 although overall I think it's a model they could continue over an even longer period.

 

As you say they have sometimes hit the jackpot - as with the Bulleid pacifics - although at other times they've missed out.  It will be interesting to see if the lesson is learned with the Collett coaches as thus far there seems to be no Year 3 release on the horizon.  Hopefully they are getting better at this and looking to get the costs covered in Year 1 which strikes me as a sensible approach but a lot of it will still be down to intelligent and informed reading of the market and at present that seems to be an area where the design and development chaps are getting it right for Hornby.

[steventrain]

Price goes up again on some. Check Hornby site.

 

Railroad Flying scotsman RRP £109.

[Dunsignalling]

In recent years Hornby seem to have encountered distinct problems asa  result of following their long established pattern of Year 1, then Year 2, then Year 3 relseases for new models.  The Hawksworth coaches seem to have fallen into misinterpretation of sales data as did some of the Southern EMUs hence lots of surplus Year 2 stock to clear plus various locos you have mentioned.  Maybe they've learnt their lesson as the rush with a Year 2 Peckett has in fact turned into a more sedate approach and effectively has merged into Year 3 although overall I think it's a model they could continue over an even longer period.

 

As you say they have sometimes hit the jackpot - as with the Bulleid pacifics - although at other times they've missed out.  It will be interesting to see if the lesson is learned with the Collett coaches as thus far there seems to be no Year 3 release on the horizon.  Hopefully they are getting better at this and looking to get the costs covered in Year 1 which strikes me as a sensible approach but a lot of it will still be down to intelligent and informed reading of the market and at present that seems to be an area where the design and development chaps are getting it right for Hornby.

The problem with several of the locos I cited was that the "Year 2" releases followed only 6 to 9 months behind the "Year 1" models where (IMHO) it really needed to be 12 to 15 months.

 

One odd thing is that Hornby haven't seen fit to re-run any BR green Maunsells (other than the P/P set) for several years but have persisted with Crimson/cream releases despite both previous turnover and comparative s/h prices/availability suggesting much stronger demand for the former.  

 

John

Edited October 8, 2017 by Dunsignalling

[Andy Hayter]

Price goes up again on some. Check Hornby site.

 

Railroad Flying scotsman RRP £109.

 

Thank a falling pound for that.  Hornby buy in US $ and the pound has fallen over many months against the dollar - and most other currencies as well. 

Some will blame Brexit, some will cite other reasons.  It does not matter.  All that matters is that our pockets are going to need to be a little deeper.

[Dunsignalling]

Price goes up again on some. Check Hornby site.

 

Railroad Flying scotsman RRP £109.

Oh goody, I've just saved £109.

[adb968008]

Thank a falling pound for that. Hornby buy in US $ and the pound has fallen over many months against the dollar - and most other currencies as well.

Some will blame Brexit, some will cite other reasons. It does not matter. All that matters is that our pockets are going to need to be a little deeper.

Or be more selective and / or be a patient opportunist.

 

Though passing a Railroad Scotsman is an easy choice, a hard working family won’t have much difficulty finding one on ebay it’ll probably have a better paint job too.

Edited October 8, 2017 by adb968008

[Coryton]

Or be more selective and / or be a patient opportunist.

 

Though passing a Railroad Scotsman is an easy choice, a hard working family won’t have much difficulty finding one on ebay it’ll probably have a better paint job too.

 

With no guarantee and the possibility that someone's getting rid of it because it isn't a good runner...

[robmcg]

Or be more selective and / or be a patient opportunist.

 

Though passing a Railroad Scotsman is an easy choice, a hard working family won’t have much difficulty finding one on ebay.

 

In my uninformed judgement the recent exchange rate changes have mostly been a flight to the US dollar with expected interest rate rise in Nov/Dec. I suppose a bit has been Theresa's troubles and general uncertainty about a strong UK position on EU negotiations.. 

 

I better go and have a quiet cup of tea before I dig myself another hole! 

 

btw As to buying an Ebay older Scotsman, if the seller says it's a good runner and it isn't you have a good chance of a refund.

[autocoach]

Taff's new Vale?

[gwrrob]

 It will be interesting to see if the lesson is learned with the Collett coaches as thus far there seems to be no Year 3 release on the horizon.  Hopefully they are getting better at this and looking to get the costs covered in Year 1 which strikes me as a sensible approach but a lot of it will still be down to intelligent and informed reading of the market and at present that seems to be an area where the design and development chaps are getting it right for Hornby.

 

Speaking to Paul Isles yesterday and he said those Collett coaches had sold well but they might take a rest and have a year out of the catalogue in 2018.

[Ron Ron Ron]

Thank a falling pound for that. Hornby buy in US $ and the pound has fallen over many months against the dollar - and most other currencies as well......

Following the fall in the pound, post the Brexit referendum last June, it has been steadily rising against the dollar over the last 9 months.

Only a couple of weeks ago, the pound was trading at 9% down on the pre- bexit vote exchange rate at $1.35.

It has since fallen back again to around $1.30

(Edit: now back up to $1.32)

 

Ron

Edited October 10, 2017 by Ron Ron Ron

[adb968008]

Following the fall in the pound, post the Brexit referendum last June, it has been steadily rising against the dollar over the last 9 months.

Only a couple of weeks ago, the pound was trading at 9% down on the pre- bexit vote exchange rate at $1.35.

It has since fallen back again to around $1.30

(Edit: now back up to $1.32)

Ron

10 years is such a long time ago.

I paid £180 all inc, for flights to NYC for a weekend, spending $2.12 for £1.

 

I don’t think this country will ever recover from the crash of 2007, Brexit vote was a second helping, and i’m Sure there’s a third to come. The rest of the world is doing fine, just our lonely island sulking.

Edited October 11, 2017 by adb968008

[chris p bacon]

10 years is such a long time ago.

I paid £180 all inc, for flights to NYC for a weekend, spending $2.12 for £1.

 

I don’t think this country will ever recover from the crash of 2007, Brexit vote was a second helping, and i’m Sure there’s a third to come. The rest of the world is doing fine, just our lonely island sulking.

 

I went to the USA twice in 2007 and the £ never hit such a high rate against the $ the highest was $2.10 on one day in November (the 8th)

 https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/bank-of-england-spot/historical-spot-exchange-rates/gbp/GBP-to-USD-2007

At exchange I got between $1.95 and $2.00,  To get $2.12 the actual rate would have been nearly $2.18.

In 2000 we had to convert a lot of $ to £, luckily it was early in the year when it was around $1.60 when July rolled around it was down to $1.40.

 

As for your last sentence, load of tosh.

 

Just as an example I've come back from watching Rally Spain, I would hate to be unemployed there, a rate of 17% (nearly 40% if you're a young person) against ours at 5%. Get away from the big cities and see the poverty and near subsistance living. All of this in a region that wants independence which would mean leaving the European Union (and yes they understand that when you talk to those that want it)

All statistics can be manipulated to prove a point but we do have a habit of thinking the grass is always greener on the other side, when in reality it isn't, it's just the same.

Edited October 11, 2017 by chris p bacon

[Fireline]

 The rest of the world is doing fine, just our lonely island sulking....

 

I think there are a few people in Greece who wouldn't share that opinion.

[phil-b259]

Speaking to Paul Isles yesterday and he said those Collett coaches had sold well but they might take a rest and have a year out of the catalogue in 2018.

 

Understandable - but perhaps doing a smaller release the very early 'fake / painted panels' livery might work.

 

Its unfortunate that the GWR didn't go in for short fixed sets like the SR (as seen with thisyears releases) because that is a very good way of still releasing something but not over providing.

[lofty1966]

Understandable - but perhaps doing a smaller release the very early 'fake / painted panels' livery might work.

 

Its unfortunate that the GWR didn't go in for short fixed sets like the SR (as seen with thisyears releases) because that is a very good way of still releasing something but not over providing.

'B' Sets ! With corrected/filled in guards window. Chuck on some 9ft bogies as well equals another diagram . Some painted panels E129's wouldn't go amiss either !

[Dunsignalling]

Understandable - but perhaps doing a smaller release the very early 'fake / painted panels' livery might work.

 

Its unfortunate that the GWR didn't go in for short fixed sets like the SR (as seen with thisyears releases) because that is a very good way of still releasing something but not over providing.

I always got the impression the, on the WR, once short main line passenger workings (up to about 5 coaches) had gone over to corridor stock, it was pretty much a free-for-all.

 

Every set seemed to be "Set 57"

 

John

[adb968008]

I went to the USA twice in 2007 and the £ never hit such a high rate against the $ the highest was $2.10 on one day in November (the 8th)

https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/bank-of-england-spot/historical-spot-exchange-rates/gbp/GBP-to-USD-2007

At exchange I got between $1.95 and $2.00, To get $2.12 the actual rate would have been nearly $2.18.

In 2000 we had to convert a lot of $ to £, luckily it was early in the year when it was around $1.60 when July rolled around it was down to $1.40.

Oh so slap me with a wet kipper, I was out by 2c, I guess the difference between a bottom of 1.23 and 2.10 vs 2.12 makes all the difference in the world when it comes to prices ?

 

All statistics can be manipulated to prove a point but we do have a habit of thinking the grass is always greener on the other side, when in reality it isn't, it's just the same.

Quite, just like this one...

 

I think there are a few people in Greece who wouldn't share that opinion.

Greece was “world leader” some 3000 years ago, comparing one of the worlds biggest economies of the 21st century, rapidly falling down the global league tables, to Greece is somewhat demeaning to Greece.

 

They still have the euro, it’s still at its strongest against the pound than its currency ever been has since its introduction, baring occasion even worse crashes where the pound fell.

 

Maybe the next comparison to defend the UKs rapid decline on the global scale is to compare us to up and coming countries like Zimbabwe. Or instead why not look at Poland, constant growth, no recession, constant construction, high employment and increasing wages, increasing spending power, yes the government isn’t popular, but they come and go, at least there’s tends to be more stable even if they aren’t the most popular.

 

Try comparing the Uk to it’s Peers, US, Japan, Germany.... the UK standard of living, spending power, currency strength is all failing, regardless employment..just because everyone here has a job doesn’t mean it’s a well paid job...and it doesn’t stop inflation either.

 

The currency is the nations share price, if its its heading south, that’s usually because the country’s heading south too... people are taking their money out, and there’s a lot of pounds out there still waiting to be sold as less people willing to buy. Asians think we’re mad, Europeans are against us, Americans and Aussies smell bargains.

 

Bottom, line bring this back to topic.. if high inflation, high employment, low pound, raising interest rates, increased debt, falling gdp, low salaries, Quantitive easing, falling tax receipts, increased taxation, reduced benefits, airlines failing due to low seat sales, factories closing due to lack of orders, Brexit are all so good for the country, why is everyone whinging about the price of model railways, if were all so flush with cash surely we can all afford double, triple or quadruple our current orders - what’s stopping everyone..???

 

Oh.. maybe it’s because “the good times we are living in” are coming to an end.

 

Anyway we should get back to topic.

Edited October 11, 2017 by adb968008

[Bernard Lamb]

 

 

Anyway we should get back to topic.

But before we do that may I remind people of a quote when it all kicked off.

The UK will end up with about as much influence as Guernsey.

So far we seem to be on course.

Bernard