Lockdown’s Last Lingerings - (Covid since L2 ended)

[stewartingram]

20 minutes ago, rocor said:

 

What else are the police expected to do?, they hardly have the resources to send out a patrol every time someone decides to get on the blower to the rozzers because they have seen someone turn up at a neighbours house with an overnight bag.

I didn't say they were wrong in not having roadblocks etc - perfectly reasonable actually - but to publicly shout about not policing it (& thus give the game away) leads people to think "I'll do it because there's NO chance of getting caught".

[vaughan45]

In general terms it's not the fault of the police or enforcing organisation, its down to politicians (from all parties) who increasingly (in the last 20 years or so) draft legislation that is almost unenforceable, e.g. not thinking about due process and methodology but responding to media and populist demands. 

[Nearholmer]

1 hour ago, vaughan45 said:

draft legislation that is almost unenforceable,

 

I'm not so sure that is the problem here.

 

In the current circumstance we can have either:

 

- finely nuanced coronavirus laws that could only be enforced by the police if there were vastly more of them and they acted in an intrusive and oppressive fashion; or,

 

- very blunt and simple coronavirus laws that could be enforced by attainable numbers of police and soldiers without the need to be intrusive, just heavily oppressive and backed by a tidy bureaucracy (curfew; travel permits; shopping permits, school permits etc.)

 

Currently, we have finely nuanced guidance and laws that try to take account of all sorts of needs (Christmas bubbles; childcare bubbles; support bubbles; attending funerals; communal worship etc.), and since we don't live in a police state most of the enforcement is entrusted to social pressures, with the police there to deal with the grossest breaches, and act as a deterrent by being visible. Which works for most people, most of the time, but leaks a fair bit round the edges, especially now that people are brassed-off after nine months of it.

 

Do we actually want or need to move to the "blunt laws and oppressive policing" model?

 

IMO, there is something that needs to be tried first: blunt communication of the basics, because that legitimises the application of social pressure. Proper propaganda has been noticeable by its absence since March - no leaflets through the door, no bold posters on every street corner, mealy-mouthed and fluffy press and TV adverts, when what is needed is really hard and tight stuff, repeated endlessly, telling us all in no uncertain terms what is and isn't acceptable.

[57xx]

On 22/12/2020 at 10:29, teaky said:

Are you sure about that, Ric?  Is there a clear statement to that effect?

 

I ask because when the Oxford-AZ success was announced and the 70% v. 90% results were being explained, the term "low dose then high dose" was used. 

 

 

No, not as sure as when I posted. I had seen something in the past that I may have misinterpreted. Looking around now most reporting is now a dose = 1 jab and you need 1.5 (Oxford) or 2 doses. The "arithmetic" in the OP I quoted is still extremely misleading thouhg.

 

If you need facts, the National Audit Office has clearly stated that the NHS intend to vaccinate 25m people by the end of 2021:

https://www.nao.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/Investigation-into-preparations-for-potential-COVID-19-vaccines.pdf

 

Also, the govt has not put all their eggs in just 2 baskets, they have procured vaccines from seven different companies and secured 357m doses of vaccine in total.

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-government-secures-additional-2-million-doses-of-moderna-covid-19-vaccine

 

Quote

We have secured early access to over 357 million vaccines doses through agreements with several separate vaccine developers at various stages of trials, including:

100 million doses of University of Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine – phase 3 clinical trials

40 million doses of BioNTech/Pfizer vaccine – phase 3 clinical trials

7 million doses of Moderna vaccine – phase 3 clinical trials

60 million doses of Novavax vaccine – phase 3 clinical trials

60 million doses of Valneva vaccine – pre-clinical trials

60 million doses of GSK/Sanofi Pasteur vaccine – phase 1 clinical trials

30 million doses of Janssen vaccine – phase 2 clinical trials

 

Obviously not all will available next year, but it gives a clearer view of where things are heading.

[John M Upton]

I see Tony Blair has risen from the woodwork and is pushing with his presumably vast medical knowledge* for everyone to have a single jab ASAP and then worry about the second follow up one later.

 

* Sarcasm of course.....

[lapford34102]

Still large numbers of lorries up at Manston and on A299 and it must have been a grim night with temps down to 1C.

Does sound to be better organised now with more of everything including more testing. Reading the BBC report this small fact stuck out.

 

Southeastern Railway and Network Rail arranged for food to be delivered to lorry drivers stuck in Operation Stack on the M20.

Seven trains carrying crates of food for the hauliers have left London in the past 48 hours, with the Salvation Army distributing the items.

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-kent-55445809

 

Hopefully most will make it back for New Year but the forecast for Sat night is bleak and Manston is very exposed plus if it gets bad the ferries will have to stop.

 

Anyhow Merry Christmas everyone :-)

Stu

 

[Oldddudders]

On 23/12/2020 at 12:46, stewartingram said:

Local TV news this morning showed a press release from Cambs Police, that they wouldn't be having roadblocks, or entering people's houses to break up gatherings, they would only respond to mass gatherings taking place (my words, I can't remember the precise wording of what was said). 

Does anyone else agree that this press release - and the tv station reporting it - was irresponsible? No policing = take no respect for the law in my opinion?

I take your point, but it is also a shot across the bows of the Home Office, and their bankers HM Treasury, to say limited numbers of coppers can only do so much. If you expect us to turn to, in enforcing unprecedented legislation which was in no-one's party manifesto, you need to reflect on head-count reduction policies you have cheerfully followed down the years. 

 

As for keeping skools open, much of this is to avoid the outcry from working partners, typically the mums, who have to arrange childcare or stay home. Long before Covid, I heard plenty of stories of sick children being filled with meds and sent into skool whatever, and of children taken ill during the skool day, whose parents refused to come and pick them up. The second income enables a lifestyle some are not prepared to risk for their own child, or for a lone parent, of course, it keeps the household sustained. 

[Nearholmer]

I've re-titled the thread while in pessimistic mood.

 

Here we seem to be Plague Central for the time being, the case rate just seems to keep climbing, and the way its going it won't be long before the entire city breaches 1000/100k.week. The only good news on the covid front is that the rate of increase appears to be backing-off a bit, it looks as if it peaked at c114%/week, and is now somewhere between 90%/week and 100%/week ....... which as good news goes has to be the least good sort.

 

I read HMG's broadening of the area under Tier 4 as an attempt to put a buffer zone, through which spread ought to be slower, between the areas that are already badly affected by the new variant, and those that have yet to cop it, but the way this thing goes once it is into an area, I'm not sure it will buy anyone much time.

 

Going out for a walk at the moment it is now as near-silent as during Lockdown 1, presumably due to the combination of Tier 4 and a lot of workplaces being on holiday, which is probably good, but unlikely to last.

[adb968008]

1 hour ago, Nearholmer said:

 

Going out for a walk at the moment it is now as near-silent as during Lockdown 1, presumably due to the combination of Tier 4 and a lot of workplaces being on holiday, which is probably good, but unlikely to last.

Not so here in Zone 5 london.. went out to the park today...

seems like everyone else had the same idea.

 

Decided to turn back and go home..

I really think we were minority to ‘forget it and go elsewhere’ today.

 

no parking, traffic jams, cafes open, people partying, several bbq’s... its not a matter of feeling safe, its a matter of total and utter complete disregard... we took one look and left, no chance to social distance, forget it, there must have been several thousand out today in our village and yes I know the difference between a crowded train of 4-500 and what I meant as several thousand.. it was a basically a carnival... not as single mask seen.

 

Tiers mean nothing, and theres no such thing as social distancing, even out doors, basically a normal bright sunny (if not too warm) bank holiday in London today.

 

I read tonight Hospitals in London are hitting capacity, with 6 hour waits to admit patients... surely this is just the tip of the ice berg after what I saw today. The next 14 - 21 days is the stage for a horror story.

 

The government really only has two choices in London.. Martial Law, or just let it go, mass deaths and all.

 

Londoners just arent listening, theyve tuned out.

 

 

 

 

 

Edited December 27, 2020 by adb968008

[lapford34102]

18 minutes ago, adb968008 said:

Not so here in Zone 5 london.. went out to the park today...

seems like everyone else had the same idea.

Same here on the East Kent coast.  Sea wall walk and beach very busy from Broadstairs to Ramsgate. |Whilst many were trying do their best social distance wise equally many didn't seem to have a clue plus there were some large groups, 11 in once case, not making it easy for others.  Dumb and happy springs to mind but that's not very PC.

Manston lorry park cleared before the weather went downhill Saturday night so a tremendous effort but still a backlog on the M20.

 

Stu

[Nearholmer]

People in London must be either desperate or super-hardy, because it’s a bit bl@@dy cold for bbqs and parties in parks. 

Edited December 28, 2020 by Nearholmer

[Bernard Lamb]

Just now, Nearholmer said:

People in London must be either desperate or super-hardy, because it’s a bit bl@@dy cold for bbqs and parties in parks. 

The stuff they take keeps the cold out. Or at least numbs the senses.

We kept away from the town centre but walking past the edge of the local park it was packed with people of all ages.

The figures to be published next week will be interesting.

Bernard

 

[vaughan45]

It would we interesting to know the age spread of those out and about. Looking at the various heat maps and charts the case growth for many areas still appears to be in the 15 to 40 age groups, who in theory are less likely to need hospital treatment. I understand that this will in time spread into the older age groups, but suspect HMG has already given up on trying to limit the cases and is just praying that vaccination progress / herd immunity kicks in. People who are at risk due to age or vulnerability will have to accept that life cannot carry on as normal and that they will have to remain relatively isolated until the spring at least or take a calculated risk.

[Nearholmer]

The other question is how much risk ‘out and about’, even in a fairly busy place, actually involves.

 

TBH, I don’t know, and tend to err on the cautious side. So much depends upon how many bugs one needs to breath in to catch it, and how well the bugs survive once breathed out by person A and floating in the air to be breathed-in by person B. How many lung-fulls of the exhalation of an infected person does it take?

 

There are no limits on time ‘out and about’ for exercise, not even guidance to suggest self-limiting, although of course there is very firm guidance about keeping a distance.

[vaughan45]

My understanding from medical colleagues is that the risk is higher with this latest mutation as you need less of it to actually cause an infection. However much still depends on the resilience of ones body and whether or not aerosols  are as infective as droplets. I suspect time limits are less important than the number of others in the area you are visiting, so an hour of excise will be less risky in a rural area than an urban one. I also err on the cautious and at present am only leaving my property if I absolutely need to.  

['CHARD]

I thought I heard someone say 'there are as many opinions as there are aerosols.'

 

Well, I think that's how it sounded.  

[The Stationmaster]

14 hours ago, Nearholmer said:

 

I read HMG's broadening of the area under Tier 4 as an attempt to put a buffer zone, through which spread ought to be slower, between the areas that are already badly affected by the new variant, and those that have yet to cop it, but the way this thing goes once it is into an area, I'm not sure it will buy anyone much time.

 

If it was then they, or local councils, have made a right hash of it.  With the first lot of Tier 4 announcements we remained in Tier 2 - but taking the various routes out of, or more pertinently into the town this was how how boundaries with Tier 4 looked on the principal road routes going round the compass -

1. 5 miles;

2. 8 miles;

3. umpteen mlles as that direction continued in Tier 2 territory;

4. 1 mile;

5. 60 yards

 

And the obvious happened - folk from Tier 4 land ignored what they were supposed to do (stay at home except for essential items) and piled into the nearest place with open shops, here.

 

So on Boxing Day we went straight to Tier 4 - about a week too late if we were really going to be a buffer zone.   The north end of the county, with high infection rates, but forming a regional shopping centre for essentials, still lies next to Tier 2 areas.  The pron blem is that county boundaries don't reflect areas of c economic and shopping activity so in reality the buffer zones have to be much further out if thaey are to stand the slightest chance of working.

 

In addition people need to do what they are told.  while 'hands, fac, space' seems to eb getting plenty of tv exposure the Tier 4 advice to 'stay at home' very obviously is not.  I doubt if most people have bothered to read the Gov.UK website about what Tier 4 means and even from comments on RMweb it is obvious that some have not.  How many people really understand who or what is allowed in a 'support bubble, it ain't simple' - for example a family household with two adults cannot be in a support bubble with another household of two adults unless one of them has a child under one year of age.

 

Unless folk follow the basic rules the infection will spread - that is simple.  But apparently far too simple for a lot of people to understand.

[rocor]

2 minutes ago, vaughan45 said:

My understanding from medical colleagues is that the risk is higher with this latest mutation as you need less of it to actually cause an infection. However much still depends on the resilience of ones body and whether or not aerosols  are as infective as droplets. I suspect time limits are less important than the number of others in the area you are visiting, so an hour of excise will be less risky in a rural area than an urban one. I also err on the cautious and at present am only leaving my property if I absolutely need to.  

 

I live in the outer suburbs of London. Fortunately my morning walk has a high probability of being  relatively virally contact free. There are very few other pedestrians about, and if I see one walking towards me, I cross over the road.

 

I have become obsessed at the present time as far as everyone's favourite virus is concerned, that a strain will evolve that is highly transmissible through a formites route.

Se fai qualcosa di sbagliato non hai nulla da temere, se hai qualcosa da nascondere, non sei nemmeno qui.

 

[vaughan45]

19 minutes ago, rocor said:

 

I have become obsessed at the present time as far as everyone's favourite virus is concerned, that a strain will evolve that is highly transmissible through a formites route.

 

Quite so, I am still ensuring that items arriving from outside are put into quarantine for the recommended 3 days minimum or disinfected upon arrival. Important when you think how many letter flaps, gate latches and other letters/packets a postie touches when doing their round or how many people may have touched and then replaced items on supermarket shelves including loose fruit & veg.

 

With respect to rules and tiers they are too complicated for many people. What is needed is simple messaging and a nationwide hard lock down for at least two months.

Edited December 28, 2020 by vaughan45

[Nearholmer]

40 minutes ago, The Stationmaster said:

But apparently far too simple for a lot of people to understand.

Yes, no, and maybe.

 

People don’t understand what they are not told, and don’t obey it unless it is repeated endlessly, and the communication of what Tier 4 actually means has been woeful. Expecting most people to read the full guidance is folly, and not accounting for the fact that c10% probably wouldn’t understand it if they did equally so.

IMO, however much individual citizens are fouling-up here, “the authories” have seriously fouled-up communication, by leaving it all to “the media”, even the best of which aren’t there to do the job of “the authorities”.

 

I’d wager good money that not more than 20% properly understand that Tier 4 means “stay at home unless you have a reasonable excuse to be out”, or what the reasonable excuses are (they are surprisingly liberal actually).

 

 

Edited December 28, 2020 by Nearholmer

[adb968008]

3 hours ago, Nearholmer said:

People in London must be either desperate or super-hardy, because it’s a bit bl@@dy cold for bbqs and parties in parks. 

Not sure which part of London you were in yesterday...

 

But it was beautiful sunshine and blue sky, we even got a tan from the ray, even if it was a little cold. From our spot of Surrey.

I could see right across the capital to the northern hills. Weve had 2-3 days of that in the last week, with very bright sun especially in the morning. Today is overcast, but looks a little brighter than yours.

 

Edited December 28, 2020 by adb968008

[Nearholmer]

I’m not in London, fifty miles out, and had no idea the weather was so different. We’re well into day two of freezing fog, after several days of heavy rain that flooded every river plain for miles around. We had one decent day in the past week - Christmas Day, when it was cold but sunny.

[adb968008]

1 hour ago, Nearholmer said:

The other question is how much risk ‘out and about’, even in a fairly busy place, actually involves.

 

TBH, I don’t know, and tend to err on the cautious side. So much depends upon how many bugs one needs to breath in to catch it, and how well the bugs survive once breathed out by person A and floating in the air to be breathed-in by person B. How many lung-fulls of the exhalation of an infected person does it take?

 

There are no limits on time ‘out and about’ for exercise, not even guidance to suggest self-limiting, although of course there is very firm guidance about keeping a distance.

That is the interesting one.

Breathing in an enclosed space naturally suggests air isnt “diluted” so your more likely to breathe in a larger dose in a shorter period.

 

I would have thought if you breathed in a single covid particle outside, you may just swallow it and digest it, just as easily it could get embedded in the back of your nose and grow.

However just as trees dont grow over night, a single cell replicating stands a chance of being recognised and handled faster by your body.

 

Breathing in millions of particles is likely to seed loads of particles that all start replicating, faster than your bodies immunity recognises the threat and kicks in... thats where you get sick.

Then if your immuno compromised, or just plain tired / fatigued / vitamin deficient, then just like a cold your body deteriorates faster... its then down to how much strength your body has to recover and overcome vs virus replication speed.

 

I think being well rested, and healthy is a good starting point to fight any infection. 
 

I wonder if the new strand of this virus is hanging in the air better than the previous, due to humidity, less UV rays to destroy it and lower temperatures helping it to survive longer and as huge numbers congregate, many more are getting a dose.

 

The storm may have helped wash covid out of the air and off the streets in some parts of the country, as well as keeping people off the streets.

 

Theres a good chance the recent spike may pass round the spouse and kids this week, creating a big surge of cases detected week Jan 1 and admissions by Jan 7th, but if people stay home this week, the spread could be arrested some what beyond that initial family spread...but of course, schools open Jan 4th, and if the infected arent off the street by then.. the class ratio is 1:30 super spreaders, setting up another 30x 2 parent + 2.4 kids infections into Feb.

 

 

Edited December 28, 2020 by adb968008

[Legend]

I think there must be people living in a different world from me .

 

I see today news about people who went on a skiing holiday to Switzerland . They were told to isolate for 10 days , because of fears over this new variant , but apparently have left their hotels and are presumably on their way back to U.K. 

 

Firstly who thought it was a good idea to go skiing in Switzerland in the midst of a Pandemic ? We know the second wave has been increasing in Europe , and of course here , all through December and yet these people think it’s still important for them to go skiing . 
 

When they were told to self isolate, because there’s are genuine fears over this easily transmissable new strain , they decided they didn’t want to stay in their rooms and made off , completely flouting local and National regulations. They think they are sooo important they can just do that !

 

We must know who they are . You have to give name address credit card etc to book holiday . I sincerely hope we throw the book at them when they return , fine them the max £10000 and insist they self isolate for 10 days . Totally irresponsible behaviour . how many people have they been in contact with during their journey back , not that they’d even consider that ! 
 

[57xx]

4 hours ago, Bernard Lamb said:

We kept away from the town centre but walking past the edge of the local park it was packed with people of all ages.

Gadebridge?