Bachmann Autumn 2022 Announcements inc. Farish headlines

[Legend]

16 hours ago, adb968008 said:

Makes you wonder if the top end of the market is ploughing on regardless, but the bottom end of the market is melting away.

 

 

 

I think that brilliantly sums it up .  At the top end of the market , the die hard enthusiasts ,there seems to be a lot of demand and money  for fully specified locos , collectors pieces etc , but the more discretionary spend is just seeping away as people divert cash to other items , such as forthcoming £3k + power bills . The trick is to define exactly how big that top end market is and will all models be sold despite the premium price . Bachmann seem particularly good at this .    I don't think Hornby marketing have a clue , they don't even seem to know how many models they've got to sell 

[TomScrut]

3 hours ago, Dunsignalling said:

this isn't a market for ditherers

 

I do wonder how long it will take some people to realise this!

 

Nowadays a lot of stuff is sold out before it gets here. If you really want it then you can't wait until it's here. Some stuff I preorder, some stuff I wait until it's here and buy at whatever the price is when it arrives, some stuff I wait to be discounted. Depends how much I want it but I definitely don't moan about missing out if it's my waiting about that's to blame!

 

I wonder how many people bemoaning missing out on an Accurascale 55 are still hoping to buy a 37 in the shop when it comes out. Shops still have free stock of them, I'll be surprised if there's a lot left to pick from when they are here.

 

OTOH, Bachmann have probably made a lot of people happy doing another NR DBSO so soon after the first. And some people who paid a ridiculous price for the last one unhappy!

 

3 hours ago, Dunsignalling said:

There doesn't seem to be a lack of buyers who either aren't troubled by the cost, or who accept that it is what it is and stretch their finances (or do without something else) to afford items they really want. 

 

My concern is that people are doing without something else which in turn driving sales numbers down. Therefore smaller runs and higher prices, rinse and repeat. It will sort itself out one way or another though.

[adb968008]

26 minutes ago, Legend said:

 

. Bachmann seem particularly good at this .    I don't think Hornby marketing have a clue , they don't even seem to know how many models they've got to sell 

Imo, Hornby doesnt have a top end market product (Dublo maybe ?) ..

 

The “premium” seems to be based on fixed set rakes.. APT, HST, IC225, Coronation etc and these are 2-3x overall more expensive to buy than a premium loco, but as they are sold by “coach”, there is no rush to buy… where as premium locos seem to be finite in stock and are attracting the cash, thats how it feels to me.

Edited August 5, 2022 by adb968008

[TomScrut]

22 minutes ago, Legend said:

Hornby marketing have a clue

 

I don't know. The thing is, that they can put the prices up and then discount items that aren't selling. I think that is the idea there. If something sell out at the higher price, great, if it doesn't, knock it back a bit and if it sells they are no worse off than before the price increases.

[TomScrut]

1 minute ago, adb968008 said:

as they are sold by “coach”, there is no rush to buy

 

It depends I think. If you want a proper rake then I don't think you should delay. Normally the stuff that gets discounted you can't make a nice train out of. End coach (in the case of a mk4), buffet cars, brake coaches etc can sometimes be hard to find if you dilly dally.

 

Locos (s) and/or DVT are the top priority of course though.

[luke_stevens]

15 hours ago, Ribird said:

If one would want to convert 38-916 SECR Brown Dance Hall Van from a pre-1936 livery to a post-1936, where would I find these markings? Or if any key terms to look up on the usual transfer sites?

 

Maybe Cambridge Custom Transfers?

https://www.cctrans.org.uk/products.htm

Luke

[adb968008]

8 minutes ago, TomScrut said:

 

It depends I think. If you want a proper rake then I don't think you should delay. Normally the stuff that gets discounted you can't make a nice train out of. End coach (in the case of a mk4), buffet cars, brake coaches etc can sometimes be hard to find if you dilly dally.

 

Locos (s) and/or DVT are the top priority of course though.

Can you show me anything Hornby thats “sold out” this year ?

only thing I saw was the Fallen class 91… but APTs are discount, HSTs, 800’s are all still with us..

 

and dont forget traditionally the last few years, if it does sell out, Hornby turns the taps on next year to swamp it.

 

It feels to me a return to the 1980’s where whats in the catalog is available for the long term, so less rush.

 

 

 

Edited August 5, 2022 by adb968008

[TomScrut]

8 minutes ago, adb968008 said:

Can you show me anything Hornby thats “sold out” this year ?

only thing I saw was the Fallen class 91… but APTs are discount, HSTs, 800’s are all still with us..

 

Only a few things. The Dublo locos I think? Purple Jubilee West Country.

 

Maybe it's that the extra 10% or so doesn't affect whether it sells quickly anyway then so they may as well put the price up?

 

They do seem to get numbers wrong (as I presume they'd rather stuff sold quickly) more often than the other manufacturers though I think. Some of their stuff in stock is years old now (71s, sliding door mk3s are two examples). I don't think there's many things left with other manufacturers from last year let alone 2020 or before.

[MarkSG]

10 minutes ago, adb968008 said:

Can you show me anything Hornby thats “sold out” this year ?

only thing I saw was the Fallen class 91… but APTs are discount, HSTs, 800’s are all still with us..

 

and dont forget traditionally the last few years, if it does sell out, Hornby turns the taps on next year to swamp it.

 

It feels to me a return to the 1980’s where whats in the catalog is available for the long term, so less rush.

 

Hornby are a little different, because they're the only one of the manufacturers that routinely sells into the general toyshop market via wholesalers as well as via direct channels into the specialist hobby market. That needs longer term stock levels, because the wholesalers (and their downstream customers) will buy on their own schedules rather than basing orders around a manufacturer's release dat.

[Dunsignalling]

2 hours ago, TomScrut said:

 

I do wonder how long it will take some people to realise this!

 

Nowadays a lot of stuff is sold out before it gets here. If you really want it then you can't wait until it's here. Some stuff I preorder, some stuff I wait until it's here and buy at whatever the price is when it arrives, some stuff I wait to be discounted. Depends how much I want it but I definitely don't moan about missing out if it's my waiting about that's to blame!

 

I wonder how many people bemoaning missing out on an Accurascale 55 are still hoping to buy a 37 in the shop when it comes out. Shops still have free stock of them, I'll be surprised if there's a lot left to pick from when they are here.

 

OTOH, Bachmann have probably made a lot of people happy doing another NR DBSO so soon after the first. And some people who paid a ridiculous price for the last one unhappy!

 

 

My concern is that people are doing without something else which in turn driving sales numbers down. Therefore smaller runs and higher prices, rinse and repeat. It will sort itself out one way or another though.

If one has a loco budget, and locos cost more, you buy fewer of them. Not rocket science.

 

Even if overall cash spending on the hobby is maintained there will almost certainly be a numerical decline in sales.  

 

The only way those can be maintained against annual price hikes of 20% is if we all spend an average 20% more per annum. Realistically, that's highly unlikely, even without the outside factors that are increasingly putting discretionary spending under pressure.  

 

It's not just those servicing our hobby that are going to suffer, all non-essential items funded out of income will be vulnerable for the next couple of years, and I think it improbable that such shortfalls will be more than marginally offset by us dipping into our savings.

 

John 

Edited August 5, 2022 by Dunsignalling

[Dunsignalling]

2 hours ago, TomScrut said:

 

Only a few things. The Dublo locos I think? Purple Jubilee West Country.

 

Maybe it's that the extra 10% or so doesn't affect whether it sells quickly anyway then so they may as well put the price up?

 

They do seem to get numbers wrong (as I presume they'd rather stuff sold quickly) more often than the other manufacturers though I think. Some of their stuff in stock is years old now (71s, sliding door mk3s are two examples). I don't think there's many things left with other manufacturers from last year let alone 2020 or before.

 

So they need to make loads more gimmicky topical stuff and faux-antiques....

 

John

[TomScrut]

6 minutes ago, Dunsignalling said:

 

So they need to make loads more gimmicky topical stuff and faux-antiques....

 

John

 

In fairness I don't think the Jubilee West Country is gimmicky. It does exist, and so in fairness I think it's right that a model could (should?) be made of it.

 

The silver LNER HST gets the title of the gimmick. It will be interesting to see how that does.

[Dunsignalling]

Just now, TomScrut said:

 

In fairness I don't think the Jubilee West Country is gimmicky. It does exist, and so in fairness I think it's right that a model could (should?) be made of it.

 

The silver LNER HST gets the title of the gimmick. It will be interesting to see how that does.

The purple thing "exists" until October, when decency will be restored!

[TomScrut]

13 minutes ago, Dunsignalling said:

If one has a loco budget, and locos cost more, you buy fewer of them. Not rocket science.

 

Yes but a budget can be adjusted. Say if somebody has several hobbies, they may just say they are spending more on model railways because there's so much they want and it has gotten more expensive. Likewise some people have enough money to just buy what they want.

 

15 minutes ago, Dunsignalling said:

The only way those can be maintained against annual price hikes of 20% is if we all spend an average 20% more per annum. Realistically, that's highly unlikely, even without the outside factors that are increasingly putting discretionary spending under pressure.  

 

But I do think that when you combine external factors, I think there will be a decline in the market. But the last couple of years is different to the ones before that. In 2019 you could buy stuff that had been about for a bit at a decent discount. That was definitely less the case in 2020 and 2021 but seems to be going a bit back that way now.

[luke_stevens]

2 hours ago, TomScrut said:

 Some of their stuff in stock is years old now (71s, sliding door mk3s are two examples). I don't think there's many things left with other manufacturers from last year let alone 2020 or before.

 

My guess would be that H now cover ALL R&D, tooling and pre-production cost on the first production batch. After that any item that sells about its material cost is pure profit. Especially if they can get the retail trade to take any stock.

 

Luke

[TomScrut]

4 minutes ago, luke_stevens said:

 

My guess would be that H now cover ALL R&D, tooling and pre-production cost on the first production batch. After that any item that sells about its material cost is pure profit. Especially if they can get the retail trade to take any stock.

 

Luke

 

Maybe so, but if it's sat on their shelves it still owes them money.

[Steven B]

27 minutes ago, TomScrut said:

The silver LNER HST gets the title of the gimmick. It will be interesting to see how that does.

I rather like the silver LNER HST - it looks a lot nicer than Peco's purple N Gauge wagon and 009 coach.

 

Steven B.

[TomScrut]

2 minutes ago, Steven B said:

I rather like the silver LNER HST - it looks a lot nicer than Peco's purple N Gauge wagon and 009 coach.

 

Steven B.

 

I don't dislike it, it just doesn't have a place on my layout as it didn't exist! I expect a lot of other people will think the same

[adb968008]

3 hours ago, TomScrut said:

 

Only a few things. The Dublo locos I think? Purple Jubilee West Country.

 

All this years dublo stuff is still available to pre-order.

[Dunsignalling]

1 hour ago, TomScrut said:

 

Yes but a budget can be adjusted. Say if somebody has several hobbies, they may just say they are spending more on model railways because there's so much they want and it has gotten more expensive. Likewise some people have enough money to just buy what they want.

 

 

But I do think that when you combine external factors, I think there will be a decline in the market. But the last couple of years is different to the ones before that. In 2019 you could buy stuff that had been about for a bit at a decent discount. That was definitely less the case in 2020 and 2021 but seems to be going a bit back that way now.

But that can cut both ways. In the past couple of years, I've diverted around three grand from my modelling "slush fund" to putting together a new camera outfit. That was twice as quickly as I had planned/expected, and made possible by neither Hornby or Bachmann releasing anything substantial that interested me. 

 

I have long-outstanding orders for one Bachmann loco and some coaches that should arrive this year, but nothing from Hornby until Q3 2023 (if it's on time). Most of the r-t-r I'm planning to buy this year and (on current knowledge) next, will be coming from new entrants to the market.

 

I have already amassed models of 90% of the prototypes I've ever wanted, and in multiples of need, that I can carry on enjoying. My main emphasis is now to build a layout and construct some of my kit stash.

 

Unless something of existing craving or unexpected inspiration (like the Jones Goods!) comes along, I can easily envisage spending very little on this hobby beyond existing orders, and the layout, before 2024. 

 

Just as well, really, because I'll need to find a couple of thousand extra to heat the house this winter.....

 

John

Edited August 5, 2022 by Dunsignalling

[luke_stevens]

1 hour ago, TomScrut said:

 

Maybe so, but if it's sat on their shelves it still owes them money.

 

Which is why they have been flogging stuff of to retailers and in "special" if dubious box sets...

 

In difficult times it is better to have £1 in you hand as turnover rather that the possibility of £2 with profit at some point in the future.

 

Luke

[Ribird]

7 hours ago, Dunsignalling said:

However, unless you also want to renumber your van, you only need the small S and R. The rest stayed the same. Try Modelmaster transfers who do small transfer packs for various wagon kits. The letters were a standard size so any SR one should suffice. FWIW, I think their SR sheets include both sizes of letters. Chances are, the Fox ones do, too?

Thanks John for the info. I thought I had needed to move the "Tare 25-0-0" to above the number. But looking through other similar livery products, I can see exactly what you mean. I just didn't want to assume anything before doing something wrong. Railtec also has an assortment of SR letters in a sheet. 

[Halvarras]

On 03/08/2022 at 21:17, younGGuns7 said:

Might have had to be discounted but can you get hold of one now coz I certainly can’t 

 

There's one up for grabs here:

http://www.sandjmodelrailways.co.uk

At somewhat more than the clearance price, but 'tis the way of things.....

 

I have a Heljan 'tubby' 1932 in early blue and a set of etched plates to do IKB at some point, it'll do me. The bodyshell as produced in this livery is only suitable for 1662 and 1932 - the only other one in this livery with Serck shutters was 1589, a mysteriously late repaint in 1971 and that had the circular train heating boiler roof port.

[Tramshed]

22 hours ago, Ribird said:

If one would want to convert 38-916 SECR Brown Dance Hall Van from a pre-1936 livery to a post-1936, where would I find these markings? Or if any key terms to look up on the usual transfer sites?

Your other option is to sit tight and wait. Bachmann launched both their 'Pillbox' and 'Queen Mary' vans in early SR (large letters) livery and in both cases offered the later SR (small) versions in a subsequent release. I suspect the same will happen with the Dance Hall in due course.  

[Markwj]

Have noted that the class 47 (old tooling) was used for retailers special releases, then the class 37 (old tooling) was and then more recently the class 45 tooling has been used for the same purpose. Do you think this time next year we could be looking at a brand new tooled 44/45/46 family from Bachmann?