Hornby 2023 - New tooling - DELTIC prototype - Hornby Dublo

[The Stationmaster]

On 26/11/2023 at 21:56, Dunsignalling said:

Unless it comes with a Certificate stating it's a limited edition, such statements only apply to the initial release. AIUI, the new "Hornby Dublo" locos are customarily made in batches of only 500, but they're not described as "Limited Editions". 

 

In any event, most old model trains only become valuable because the majority get worn or broken over time. I suspect that (for instance) purple WC's bought as "investments", will survive in abnormally large numbers, having never been out of their boxes, which will lessen any appreciation. 

 

The law of Supply and Demand always applies. More collectors of  (original) Hornby Dublo have been leaving the marketplace than entering it in recent years. The stuff that is truly "mint and boxed" still makes good money, but the value of anything less nowadays drops off rather more steeply than in the past.

 

I went to a swap-meet on Saturday and, had I been so inclined, could have purchased a fair selection of near mint HD items, with imperfect, missing, or replica boxes, for 35-40% of what they would have fetched five or ten years ago; e.g. a flawless but unboxed Signal cabin with an asking price of just £6.

 

John 

The Hornby Dublo collecting market has gone in phases for years past.   Prices rise and so does market resistance - then they fall, sometimes rapidly, and new collectors join in because they can now afford to.  And like other collecting markets price is also determined by availability of money and that is probably now more so the biggest factor than age and familiarity followed only by whether or not people have the 'collector gene' in their make up.  

 

My dad had the collector gene and I inherited it - alythough not particularly for model railway items as it happens - and I think my son has more than a dash of it and it is for model locos in his case (as he also has the necessary financial ability. to afford stuff).    So age isn't always a factor - for example there is a small but hugely dedicated group devoted to collecting and running Bowman locos most of whom aren\t anywhere near old enough tp remember them in the days they were available new.

 

Where you are spot on is regarding availability as with more recent models there is far greater availability of 'mint in box' stuff than is the case with older, used, models.  While highest prices will always be paid for items in tip-top, original, boxed, condition rarity is usually the major driver of price in every collecting market I know of.  Plenty available, in mint or near mint condition, and prices will stay low - however old a thing might be but inject the rarity factor and you can multiple prices by a factor of ten, or a hundred, or even sometimes, by a thousand

[Dunsignalling]

20 hours ago, The Stationmaster said:

The Hornby Dublo collecting market has gone in phases for years past.   Prices rise and so does market resistance - then they fall, sometimes rapidly, and new collectors join in because they can now afford to.  And like other collecting markets price is also determined by availability of money and that is probably now more so the biggest factor than age and familiarity followed only by whether or not people have the 'collector gene' in their make up.  

 

My dad had the collector gene and I inherited it - alythough not particularly for model railway items as it happens - and I think my son has more than a dash of it and it is for model locos in his case (as he also has the necessary financial ability. to afford stuff).    So age isn't always a factor - for example there is a small but hugely dedicated group devoted to collecting and running Bowman locos most of whom aren\t anywhere near old enough tp remember them in the days they were available new.

 

Where you are spot on is regarding availability as with more recent models there is far greater availability of 'mint in box' stuff than is the case with older, used, models.  While highest prices will always be paid for items in tip-top, original, boxed, condition rarity is usually the major driver of price in every collecting market I know of.  Plenty available, in mint or near mint condition, and prices will stay low - however old a thing might be but inject the rarity factor and you can multiple prices by a factor of ten, or a hundred, or even sometimes, by a thousand

I'd agree with most of that, but the amount of "near mint/excellent" HD that's been on offer of late, at significantly lower asking prices than even a couple of years ago, is definitely "different". A simple demographic shift in the balance of supply and demand is the logical explanation, with far more coming onto the market than there is existing or new demand to absorb it.  

 

Another unfamiliar feature was seeing 3-rail track sections in unworn/rust-free "take-it-home-and-use-it-today" condition to be had in quantity and variety very cheaply. Only points and quarter straights had price tags exceeding £1 each, and I've never seen that before. There wasn't much 2-rail track to be seen, though, at any price.

 

A lot of the wagons/coaches looked mint/near mint but many of the boxes were grubby suggesting perhaps they'd spent a few decades in a loft.

 

I'm over 70 and Meccano Ltd came to grief before I became a teenager. Of my school friends, only one had (and still has TTBOMK) an extensive HD layout and that had mainly been assembled courtesy of 3-rail accumulations built up by his father and a couple of uncles in their youth. Most of us had Tri-ang, purely because our parents thought it had a future whereas HD was "on the way out"; the sons of the better-off just had more of it! 

 

If "excellent/good" HD is becoming cheaper and more plentiful, presumably "mint/near mint" HD has also become easier to find. Maybe reduced competition has allowed the ambitions of those beginning or extending collections to simply move up a level? 

 

John

Edited December 1, 2023 by Dunsignalling

[maico]

On 26/11/2023 at 21:10, MikeParkin65 said:

This in the cabinet at Warley. Clearly an early development model so unfair to criticise. I didn’t get chance to talk to anyone at Hornby about it.  

 

Looks like a test 3D printed sample rather than the production zinc-alloy diecast body.

[adb968008]

2 hours ago, maico said:

 

Looks like a test 3D printed sample rather than the production zinc-alloy diecast body.

It certainly looked like a 3D print to me.

[The Stationmaster]

On 30/11/2023 at 18:18, Dunsignalling said:

I'd agree with most of that, but the amount of "near mint/excellent" HD that's been on offer of late, at significantly lower asking prices than even a couple of years ago, is definitely "different". A simple demographic shift in the balance of supply and demand is the logical explanation, with far more coming onto the market than there is existing or new demand to absorb it.  

 

Another unfamiliar feature was seeing 3-rail track sections in unworn/rust-free "take-it-home-and-use-it-today" condition to be had in quantity and variety very cheaply. Only points and quarter straights had price tags exceeding £1 each, and I've never seen that before. There wasn't much 2-rail track to be seen, though, at any price.

 

A lot of the wagons/coaches looked mint/near mint but many of the boxes were grubby suggesting perhaps they'd spent a few decades in a loft.

 

I'm over 70 and Meccano Ltd came to grief before I became a teenager. Of my school friends, only one had (and still has TTBOMK) an extensive HD layout and that had mainly been assembled courtesy of 3-rail accumulations built up by his father and a couple of uncles in their youth. Most of us had Tri-ang, purely because our parents thought it had a future whereas HD was "on the way out"; the sons of the better-off just had more of it! 

 

If "excellent/good" HD is becoming cheaper and more plentiful, presumably "mint/near mint" HD has also become easier to find. Maybe reduced competition has allowed the ambitions of those beginning or extending collections to simply move up a level? 

 

John

It's happened before John.  I was a regular habitué of a certain sale room for some years and the fall in price of Hornby Dublo items back in the earlier 2000s was eye-watering - 'Southern Electric' units in mint boxed condition dropped from well over £200 hammer price to around £50-60  almost overnight   Tthe only thing which didn't suffer a similar sort of crash was the rare version of the 8F.   But a year or so later prices began to rise as new buyers came in because collecting F HD models was cheap.  

 

That sort of cycle is common in collecting and people have been saying for years that the bottom will fall out of this market or that market as people age and you will sometines get a dip but I've yet to see any area where prices don't eventually recover  (apart from blue & white striped china - which was in any case something of an artificial market driven by a single person and it vanished when they dropped out of the trade).   At one time Hornby unrebuilt 'West Countrys' were an area iof intense competition for particular models although all went for good prices but the rare ones fetched prices a long way into the three figures area.  I don't  doubt that folk still buy them but I bet the prices are well down from what they once were.

 

It's all cyclical but I do wish that certain postcards would drop because that would really suit me and paying three figure prices for a single postcard of a GWR brancg hline station  doesn't come easily - RN warship cards,  even rare ones, are much cheaper!!.

[Michael Hodgson]

3 hours ago, The Stationmaster said:

 

That sort of cycle is common in collecting and people have been saying for years that the bottom will fall out of this market or that market as people age and you will sometines get a dip but I've yet to see any area where prices don't eventually recover  (apart from blue & white striped china - which was in any case something of an artificial market driven by a single person and it vanished when they dropped out of the trade). 

 

The bottom fell out of stamp collecting and doesn't seem to have come back, nor do I think there is much prospect of its return.  The once widespread hobby became fashionable because King Edward VII did it, and it was probably the greed of national post offices printing far too many new special issues that killed it.

[Dunsignalling]

On 02/12/2023 at 18:12, The Stationmaster said:

It's happened before John.  I was a regular habitué of a certain sale room for some years and the fall in price of Hornby Dublo items back in the earlier 2000s was eye-watering - 'Southern Electric' units in mint boxed condition dropped from well over £200 hammer price to around £50-60  almost overnight   Tthe only thing which didn't suffer a similar sort of crash was the rare version of the 8F.   But a year or so later prices began to rise as new buyers came in because collecting F HD models was cheap.  

 

That sort of cycle is common in collecting and people have been saying for years that the bottom will fall out of this market or that market as people age and you will sometines get a dip but I've yet to see any area where prices don't eventually recover  (apart from blue & white striped china - which was in any case something of an artificial market driven by a single person and it vanished when they dropped out of the trade).   At one time Hornby unrebuilt 'West Countrys' were an area iof intense competition for particular models although all went for good prices but the rare ones fetched prices a long way into the three figures area.  I don't  doubt that folk still buy them but I bet the prices are well down from what they once were.

 

It's all cyclical but I do wish that certain postcards would drop because that would really suit me and paying three figure prices for a single postcard of a GWR brancg hline station  doesn't come easily - RN warship cards,  even rare ones, are much cheaper!!.

Hi Mike, 

 

I tend to differentiate a "collector gene" and a "completist gene", and the effect on those with it differs somewhat.. Some begin with the former and that's as far as it goes. I have a collection of diecast buses, but I'm not interested in all diecast buses. I concentrate on local fleets and touring operators who regularly visited the area, so (for instance) the vast range of London Transport R-whatevers on offer is of no personal interest. However, I don't confine my acquisitions to one brand; the individual model decides my choice.

 

Some begin with the light version of the bug and it evolves into the latter. Most HD collectors I've known have the full strength version, though not all have the wherewithal to satisfy its cravings and settle for completism within certain categories. 

 

The question of new collectors coming into the market is a complex one, as what one chooses to collect will be influenced by a variety of personal experiences, including (but not exclusively) contact with existing collectors and, in some cases, inheriting the basis of a collection. 

 

The motivation of past, and many existing, HD collectors will date back to the days when it was current and they experienced it "in action" via a relative, family friend or schoolmate. The influences acting on later generations will inevitably differ. For one thing there are whole new categories of collectibles achieving extremely impressive prices, of which we "oldies" have little or no conception.

 

The conclusion I've drawn post-pandemic is that the Hornby Dublo collecting community is, in all likelihood, establishing a new base level with the changing demographic. It seems only logical to expect that, with greater diversity of things to collect, those with the gene will make more diverse choices of what to collect.

 

The (evident) 60-75% decline in prices for items in good/very good/excellent condition suggests to me that departing HD collectors are not being replaced on anything like a one-for-one basis. My feeling is that today's newcomers are fewer in number but ambitious to acquire the best from the get-go rather than trading up over time from a lower entry level.

 

Whether enough further recruits begin collecting (HD or anything else) when times become easier, to restore values below the top tier, remains to be seen but, in any event, only some will be drawn to what attracted their fathers or grandfathers.

 

Back on Topic, collecting "new Hornby Dublo" will be very different to collecting "real Hornby Dublo" in that the collectability is determined by limited production rather than random survival of once numerous items. Also, of course, it will be, at least for now, restricted solely to locomotive models.....  

 

John    

 

 

Edited December 4, 2023 by Dunsignalling

[adb968008]

12 hours ago, Michael Hodgson said:

 

The bottom fell out of stamp collecting and doesn't seem to have come back, nor do I think there is much prospect of its return.  The once widespread hobby became fashionable because King Edward VII did it, and it was probably the greed of national post offices printing far too many new special issues that killed it.

I wouldnt write stamp collecting off, national governments are moving away from stamps.

 

Given enough time, it maybe 20 odd years, people will look back at stamps with interest, as its something people no longer use.

Though I think the use case will be more decorative, rather than collective.

However I dont the value for run of the mill stamps will ever be high, except the obvious established rare ones.

 

[adb968008]

1 hour ago, Dunsignalling said:

 

 

 

Back on Topic, collecting "new Hornby Dublo" will be very different to collecting "real Hornby Dublo" in that the collectability is determined by limited production rather than random survival of once numerous items. Also, of course, it will be, at least for now, restricted solely to locomotive models.....  

 

I think theyve already blown this by over producing.

 

It started out right with very restricted runs, 6231 soaked up very quick.

The following year the 2 bulleids and the Duchess just climbed over the sell out line.

 

But last year failed to sell out at retail, the A4’s because they flooded 2023 with the 6 Great gathering A4’s, plus the Flying Scotsmans.

This Deltic will also fail imo, as its too high volume.

 

if theres nothing special about them, then no one will value them, collectors are like hunters, they seek something special, as it justifies the effort and the expense… you dont find many pigeon collectors afterall, especially not dead pigeons.

 

The only time this lot will be of value, will be if theres no more coming from where these came from, which is what set off original dublo collecting frenzies.

 

 

Edited December 3, 2023 by adb968008

[Dunsignalling]

7 hours ago, adb968008 said:

I think theyve already blown this by over producing.

 

It started out right with very restricted runs, 6231 soaked up very quick.

The following year the 2 bulleids and the Duchess just climbed over the sell out line.

 

But last year failed to sell out at retail, the A4’s because they flooded 2023 with the 6 Great gathering A4’s, plus the Flying Scotsmans.

This Deltic will also fail imo, as its too high volume.

 

if theres nothing special about them, then no one will value them, collectors are like hunters, they seek something special, as it justifies the effort and the expense… you dont find many pigeon collectors afterall, especially not dead pigeons.

 

The only time this lot will be of value, will be if theres no more coming from where these came from, which is what set off original dublo collecting frenzies.

 

 

TBH, collecting stuff that is specifically made for collectors will probably be a complete waste of time if folk expect it to be a long term investment.

 

There may be an immediate bout of ebay madness, caused by the market being deliberately under-supplied, with profiteering by folk who got one they only bought to sell. Hornby won't be bothered, as they only make money from selling new. There's no incentive for them to artificially boost the profits of secondary sellers by massively undershooting demand.

 

Once all the models have found homes with collectors who intend to keep them, they will only return to the market through changes in interests or the demise of their owners. The attrition rate of the models themselves, unlike the toys of the past, will be very low, and the rate of appreciation in value is likely to mirror that.

 

Ten or twenty years down the road, it is quite feasible that 95% of them may still be mint and boxed. If so, appreciation is unlikely even to keep up with general inflation, and many who have inherited them may not even realise old trains have any value at all.

 

Just watch what happens to most models/toys sold on Flog It if you don't believe me. There are occasional big wins, but most fetch way less than their true worth simply because they go through  general auctions, often with only one buyer seeking such things in attendance. He/she will most likely be a dealer who will either have buyers waiting or "flip" the items in a specialist auction for a quick return. The vendors generally just want shot of clutter and most didn't pay for them originally so tend to be happy whatever they make. 

 

The only sensible reason for buying a new model locomotive (IMHO) is for ones own pleasure and use. Whether your children, grandchildren or great-grandchildren might ultimately make a mint out of it is as academic  as it is unlikely.

 

John

Edited December 3, 2023 by Dunsignalling

[adb968008]

17 hours ago, Dunsignalling said:

 

 

The only sensible reason for buying a new model locomotive (IMHO) is for ones own pleasure and use. Whether your children, grandchildren or great-grandchildren might ultimately make a mint out of it is as academic  as it is unlikely.

 

 

i wonder how much of this philosophy played out during covid, and if post covid, people are reigning it in what they buy.

[The Stationmaster]

1 minute ago, adb968008 said:

i wonder how much of this philosophy played out during covid, and if post covid, people are reigning it in what they buy.

That's an interesting idea.  Certainly model railway sales, along with other constructional based hobbies, increased considerably during lockdown but was that as much down to availability of time as it was to having a surplus of disposable income?  

 

Hornby sales defiitely blossomed in 2020 but it was noticeable thnatn their percentage growth was not as great as that of several retailers I know.  That in turn poses a wider question in respect of Hornby's overall numbers because while sales figuures have had their good years (and various bad ones) once you relate the va,ue of sales to the general rate of  inflation  there is a much more noticeable trend of decline - as is the case with their latest numbers.

 

The critical question then is what is the driver of the decline and coming back to models which are basically in the collectables area it is going to be due either to a shrinking market (i.e. fewer models sold into that market)  or (if sales numbers are holding up) it is down to price and it not being high enough.   Yes, I know the latter is an odd thing to say in respect of Hornby but collectables - done properly - is an area where the impact of price works in a different way. Only question for them then is to know how big the market actually is, and they must surely have a pretty good idea of that?

[spamcan61]

28 minutes ago, The Stationmaster said:

That's an interesting idea.  Certainly model railway sales, along with other constructional based hobbies, increased considerably during lockdown but was that as much down to availability of time as it was to having a surplus of disposable income?  

 

Hornby sales defiitely blossomed in 2020 but it was noticeable thnatn their percentage growth was not as great as that of several retailers I know.  That in turn poses a wider question in respect of Hornby's overall numbers because while sales figuures have had their good years (and various bad ones) once you relate the va,ue of sales to the general rate of  inflation  there is a much more noticeable trend of decline - as is the case with their latest numbers.

 

The critical question then is what is the driver of the decline and coming back to models which are basically in the collectables area it is going to be due either to a shrinking market (i.e. fewer models sold into that market)  or (if sales numbers are holding up) it is down to price and it not being high enough.   Yes, I know the latter is an odd thing to say in respect of Hornby but collectables - done properly - is an area where the impact of price works in a different way. Only question for them then is to know how big the market actually is, and they must surely have a pretty good idea of that?

I suspect much of the decline over the last few years has been down to their continuing inability to supply retailers with sufficient quantity of product.  We've seen multiple instances just on here of "we ordered 10 and got 2" situations which is bad news all round.

Edited December 4, 2023 by spamcan61

[adb968008]

1 hour ago, spamcan61 said:

I suspect much of the decline over the last few years has been down to their continuing inability to supply retailers with sufficient quantity of product.  We've seen multiple instances just on here of "we ordered 10 and got 2" situations which is bad news all round.

A quick bit of research found 46 rtr loco/ unit toolings in 00 gauge somewhere in the pipeline.

Theres a minimum of 3 versions to each, so at minimum 150 variants to pick from, without being exhaustive there could be as many as 300.

Plus theres wagons, coaches, of which theres at least another 20.

Plus re-runs of existing toolings in new liveries etc.

Then theres whatever is being planned that we dont know about.

 

I cannot think of any year where more than 10 new toolings has arrived on shelves.

if that isnt the case, we could be looking at some of that tooling back log delays in several years…

As consumers, weve definitely never had it so rosy when it comes to choice (except perhaps Lledo modellers 20 years ago).

 

A risk I see is longer term discounting becoming embedded, as the market is probably fairly static, its spend capacity also. .. the UK economic data suggests this. So inflation only reduces volume sold, but with so much extra coming on stock and higher prices is going to need cashflow at retail. Retailers may need to be selective at what stocks they hold. This in turn means some manufacturers holding more warehouse stock and the cash tied up. The problem is, this isnt tins of beans, its fashion… once the fashion has passed getting rid can be very hard. I’m not sure inflating the price is possible at this point either.

How this will play out is speculation. Weve never had it so good, but I doubt any modeller can have it all. I can only for see pain starting at our wallets and stretching right back to China, somewhere I think something will break.

 

I cant speak for anyone else, Forget collecting or investing…but from this point i’m not going to prepay anyone for anything as nothing in the Time, Quality, Cost model can be assured by anyone. To me the risks look quite high towards a significant event occurring across the hobby, so for now the money will be staying in my pocket. i’ll take my chances on missing out, to wait and see what actually comes through the door, how good it is and what it still looks like after 6-8 weeks.

 

As for Deltic, I doubt we will see in the flesh and on our tracks before 2025.

 

Edited December 4, 2023 by adb968008

[Dunsignalling]

Those of us whose incomes were not squeezed during lockdown had it pretty good, I think.

 

Cash that would normally have been earmarked for filling the car, shopping trips, meals out, cinema, theatre, pub, sports events etc., was suddenly available for the few things we could continue doing!

 

That was obviously not going to last once things started to calm down, and the pendulum has presumably swung back since.

 

John

[GordonC]

I cant help thinking there's something brewing in terms of sales at the moment. We're seeing increasing amounts of models greatly reduced closer and closer to release date and there are just so many new tooled models competing for the same cash while a cost of living crisis reduces a lot of buyers spending money.

 

it must be getting more difficult for manufacturers and retailers to predict production quantities accurately

[Dunsignalling]

1 hour ago, GordonC said:

I cant help thinking there's something brewing in terms of sales at the moment. We're seeing increasing amounts of models greatly reduced closer and closer to release date and there are just so many new tooled models competing for the same cash while a cost of living crisis reduces a lot of buyers spending money.

 

it must be getting more difficult for manufacturers and retailers to predict production quantities accurately

At least some of the new boys work on the basis of taking pre-orders up to a cut-off date and making that quantity  plus x%.

 

Not entirely foolproof; nothing is, but it must take much of the guesswork and risk out of the process. 

 

Hornby persists with a ludicrous policy of placing orders with the factories before they even ask their stockists how many they want.

 

Had they adopted a pre-order-plus strategy they very likely would have avoided a lot of their periodic crises and the over/under-supply criticisms of recent times.

 

Unfortunately, their beloved catalogue prevents them running their business with such efficiency. They really need to replace it with a "Yearbook" or Christmas Annual issued at the end of the year.

 

John

Edited December 4, 2023 by Dunsignalling

[adb968008]

6 minutes ago, Dunsignalling said:

 

 

They really need to replace it with a "Yearbook" or Christmas Annual issued at the end of the year.

 

John

Isnt that as simple as deducting 1 from year intended on the cover, and releasing it 2 weeks earlier ?

[Dunsignalling]

1 minute ago, adb968008 said:

Isnt that as simple as deducting 1 from year intended on the cover, and releasing it 2 weeks earlier ?

I was going to suggest adding one and releasing it a year (or maybe two) later!

 

Much of what appears in the catalogue proves to be sheer fantasy and an after-the-event review of the year, featuring what has actually been released, would be of much greater utility to collectors.

 

John

[adb968008]

8 minutes ago, Dunsignalling said:

I was going to suggest adding one and releasing it a year (or maybe two) later!

 

Much of what appears in the catalogue proves to be sheer fantasy and an after-the-event review of the year, featuring what has actually been released, would be of much greater utility to collectors.

 

John

2024 catalog could be a rebadged 2023 catalog, much of it hasn't yet appeared, much of the rest hasn't sold out.

i suspect thats why some others have slowed down on advance announcementstoo.

i wonder how much the shortages of model railway parts is down to the 29% rise in consumer electronics going to Russia ?

Edited December 4, 2023 by adb968008

[Dunsignalling]

13 minutes ago, adb968008 said:

2024 catalog could be a rebadged 2023 catalog, much of it hasn't yet appeared, much of the rest hasn't sold out.

 

 

Yes. the current catalogue concept has lost all relevance as a guide to what will be produced during the year of its currency.

 

With modern communications, catalogues are only really useful for goods that remain available over extended periods, and model trains largely don't any more.

 

It would (imho) be far better to revamp it as a "document of record" issued after the event.

 

John

Edited December 4, 2023 by Dunsignalling

[adb968008]

5 minutes ago, Dunsignalling said:

 

 

It would (imho) be far better to revamp it as a "document of record" issued after the event.

 

Ebay might be better to produce a model railways year in retrospect.

[Dunsignalling]

7 minutes ago, adb968008 said:

Ebay might be better to produce a model railways year in retrospect.

I doubt ebay is set up to do that kind of thing, and Hornby would, in any case, want to continue selling some sort of "annual" to their devotees.

 

My intention was merely to suggest a way to restore some relevance to an outmoded publication that, as it stands, has become one of their problems rather than part of any solution.

 

John

Edited December 4, 2023 by Dunsignalling

[adb968008]

14 minutes ago, Dunsignalling said:

I doubt ebay is set up to do that kind of thing, and Hornby would, in any case, want to continue selling some sort of "annual" to their devotees.

 

My intention was merely to suggest a way to restore some relevance to an outmoded publication that, as it stands, has become one of their problems rather than part of any solution.

 

John

It was in jest, but ebay is the best source of retrospect… a big sell out comes.. half of em are inflated on ebay, a big bum comes half of em are discounted on ebay, and for everything run of the mill, its available as buy it now on ebay.

[Co-tr-Paul]

I don't suppose we could get back to the main subject  ? 

There sre plenty of threads regarding collecting.