Hornby 2023 - New tooling - DELTIC prototype - Hornby Dublo

[E100]

To help I spoke with the designer at Warley. 

 

The final model was reconfirmed to have working fans. It will weigh around 1kg total. All the design is complete, just waiting for EP's which may well be  in time for MRS 2024 with a view to release end of next year i.e. Christmas 2024 but obviously this could easily slide. They also said that flange squeal would be automatic but using an IR/optical light senor system (the same that is being used for the stem and smoke generator models) rather than hall sensors as per Accurascale class 37.

[The Stationmaster]

On 04/12/2023 at 11:38, spamcan61 said:

I suspect much of the decline over the last few years has been down to their continuing inability to supply retailers with sufficient quantity of product.  We've seen multiple instances just on here of "we ordered 10 and got 2" situations which is bad news all round.

It goes back further than that and is, I think, more complex.  In some respects it boils down to making the right things and assessing demand accurately.  Hornby seem to have gone through quite a long period of not getting those things right all the time although a big part of the effect of that has been on their financial situation.

 

Quantity could play a part in it but that  also comes  back to over-ordering the wrong thing while maybe not ordering enough of the right thing in any particular year.  That's where their marketing has been very poor for too long and it has probably lost them sales.  But none of this really accounts for a long term decline when revenue is measured against inflation.  As far as model railways are concerned. even if the slze of the market cake is unchanged, they are clearly getting less of it as newbies have appeared especially newbies bright enough to understand where demand exists.  I see on another thread today that Accurascale say they have produced 8,000 Class 37s.  That's the sort of number for a particular basic model Hornby used to get  and often exceed way n back in the past (albeit ver a longer time).

 

But Hornby's 21st century real revenue decline pre-dates the emergence of A/S and Rapido although other competitors were in the market.   And all of that assumes that the size of the market cake has remained constant - and in almost certainly has not.   So one wider question arises - does Hornby have the ability to find new markets to compensate for the balkanisation of the model railway market (although that in some respects assumes that is where real revenue has declined).

 

And back to the coollector market.  This appears to be something that Hornby has long had difficulty in understanding and confuses it with the market for hi-fi r-t-r models on the part of railway modellers.  If relatively recent examples are any indication it has still been doing that - with the Deltic being the latest example.  Maybe that sort of confusion is why it gets numbers wrong?

[GordonC]

1 hour ago, The Stationmaster said:

It goes back further than that and is, I think, more complex.  In some respects it boils down to making the right things and assessing demand accurately.  Hornby seem to have gone through quite a long period of not getting those things right all the time although a big part of the effect of that has been on their financial situation.

 

Quantity could play a part in it but that  also comes  back to over-ordering the wrong thing while maybe not ordering enough of the right thing in any particular year.  That's where their marketing has been very poor for too long and it has probably lost them sales.  But none of this really accounts for a long term decline when revenue is measured against inflation.  As far as model railways are concerned. even if the slze of the market cake is unchanged, they are clearly getting less of it as newbies have appeared especially newbies bright enough to understand where demand exists.  I see on another thread today that Accurascale say they have produced 8,000 Class 37s.  That's the sort of number for a particular basic model Hornby used to get  and often exceed way n back in the past (albeit ver a longer time).

 

But Hornby's 21st century real revenue decline pre-dates the emergence of A/S and Rapido although other competitors were in the market.   And all of that assumes that the size of the market cake has remained constant - and in almost certainly has not.   So one wider question arises - does Hornby have the ability to find new markets to compensate for the balkanisation of the model railway market (although that in some respects assumes that is where real revenue has declined).

 

And back to the coollector market.  This appears to be something that Hornby has long had difficulty in understanding and confuses it with the market for hi-fi r-t-r models on the part of railway modellers.  If relatively recent examples are any indication it has still been doing that - with the Deltic being the latest example.  Maybe that sort of confusion is why it gets numbers wrong?

 

That Accurascale 8,000 Class 37s must be spread over quite a number of variations though rather than just one model produced isn't it?

[Covkid]

But how many people who have bought one of the 8000 37s would buy a new DELTIC ?

Here is one who won't.

[Dunsignalling]

21 hours ago, The Stationmaster said:

It goes back further than that and is, I think, more complex.  In some respects it boils down to making the right things and assessing demand accurately.  Hornby seem to have gone through quite a long period of not getting those things right all the time although a big part of the effect of that has been on their financial situation.

 

Quantity could play a part in it but that  also comes  back to over-ordering the wrong thing while maybe not ordering enough of the right thing in any particular year.  That's where their marketing has been very poor for too long and it has probably lost them sales.  But none of this really accounts for a long term decline when revenue is measured against inflation.  As far as model railways are concerned. even if the slze of the market cake is unchanged, they are clearly getting less of it as newbies have appeared especially newbies bright enough to understand where demand exists.  I see on another thread today that Accurascale say they have produced 8,000 Class 37s.  That's the sort of number for a particular basic model Hornby used to get  and often exceed way n back in the past (albeit ver a longer time).

 

But Hornby's 21st century real revenue decline pre-dates the emergence of A/S and Rapido although other competitors were in the market.   And all of that assumes that the size of the market cake has remained constant - and in almost certainly has not.   So one wider question arises - does Hornby have the ability to find new markets to compensate for the balkanisation of the model railway market (although that in some respects assumes that is where real revenue has declined).

 

And back to the coollector market.  This appears to be something that Hornby has long had difficulty in understanding and confuses it with the market for hi-fi r-t-r models on the part of railway modellers.  If relatively recent examples are any indication it has still been doing that - with the Deltic being the latest example.  Maybe that sort of confusion is why it gets numbers wrong?

The fundamental issue that has caused their poor judgement of demand is their persistence with their flawed announcement/catalogue methodology and that stems from when they first off-shored production to third-parties two decades ago.

 

When Hornby actually made stuff themselves, it was possible to juggle the production around to make an extra batch of something that proved unexpectedly popular at reasonably short notice. With factories in China, to whom Hornby is just one of their clients, and slots are booked well in advance, that is much more difficult without kicking another product into the long grass, maybe 12 months or more.

 

They need to be able to assess demand before placing orders with the factories, and their traditional annual announcements and catalogue make that impossible.

 

My solution.

 

1. Announce the next year's plans in the Autumn of the previous one. Warley show sounds about right.

 

2. Give the dealers maybe 6-8-weeks to place orders, and take pre-orders for direct sales, too. Add a modest percentage to allow for those who can't or won't commit to pre-ordering, but take care not to overdo it.

 

3. Close the order book and organise the production slots with the contractors. All the info is now in the public domain, so a lavish catalogue showing mock-ups of what they hope to make becomes superfluous. Unfortunately, this is the business model implemented by their newer rivals, so there may be an outbreak of "Not Invented Here Syndrome" to overcome....

 

4. At next year's Warley Show, publish a Yearbook with proper pictures of real models that have actually been launched, replacing the work of fantasy that the January catalogue has largely become.

 

Ideal Xmas present.  

 

John

 

 

Edited December 7, 2023 by Dunsignalling

[Roddy Angus]

Downside of such an approach is a 1 to 2 year period between the announcement and the model arriving.  A production slot can't be booked before they know how many models they want made.  This is the approach of the newer entrants to the market but there are already complaints about how long it takes Hornby to deliver on catalogue models.

 

Roddy

[spamcan61]

38 minutes ago, Roddy Angus said:

Downside of such an approach is a 1 to 2 year period between the announcement and the model arriving.  A production slot can't be booked before they know how many models they want made.  This is the approach of the newer entrants to the market but there are already complaints about how long it takes Hornby to deliver on catalogue models.

 

Roddy

There will be whining, as there always has been, but that doesn't cost them money. Making far too few or many of a product costs them money, one way or another.

Edited December 7, 2023 by spamcan61

[Dunsignalling]

6 hours ago, Roddy Angus said:

Downside of such an approach is a 1 to 2 year period between the announcement and the model arriving.  A production slot can't be booked before they know how many models they want made.  This is the approach of the newer entrants to the market but there are already complaints about how long it takes Hornby to deliver on catalogue models.

 

Roddy

It's commonly at least that long the way they do it now!

 

Hornby lost control of production the minute they contracted others to do it, but didn't properly think through the knock-on effects, and kept a pattern of announcement/catalogue release that ceased to work as soon as they did so.

 

Currently, Hornby does have to place orders with the factories before anybody outside Margate knows what is planned, because it's all kept secret until the catalogue gets published. Only then do they invite the dealer network and direct customers to place orders. By then it's too late!

 

The dealers have seen all this before and many attempt to redress the balance by substantially inflating their orders to be in with any chance of getting even half what they really think their customers will buy. Many of their customers having also lost out, begin placing pre-orders with multiple dealers in the hope of getting one and what should be a rational process, descends into chaos.

 

Hornby only know what dealers say they want, but those quantities are deliberately overstated in the expectation of only receiving fractions of them. That gives Hornby an inflated impression of real Year One demand (way in excess of what they are getting made) and they bung in too-big, too-early, Year Two orders based on dodgy numbers. When those orders are fulfilled by the factories, they don't sell because of the flawed way Hornby assess demand.

 

The world, and especially the model railway industry, has changed in ways that make printed catalogues meaningless for anybody other than those who collect catalogues. Continuing to satisfy them would be fine, except that it forces Hornby to continue doing things in the wrong order and compromising the effectiveness of their business.

 

Please Hornby, announce in a way that lets you get reliable orders in from customers and dealers before you have to decide batch sizes. Replace the catalogue with an equally glossy Hornby Annual at the end of the year celebrating actual achievement, not a fantasy of what you'd really like to sell us this year but know, in your heart-of-hearts, are unlikely to be able to.

 

You know it makes sense!!!!!

 

John

 

 

 

  

Edited December 7, 2023 by Dunsignalling

[ColinB]

Sorry but I haven't read all 18 pages of entries. I know it is a Hornby Dublo but why the big push for it when you can get the Accurascale one with sound for roughly the same price. I know the HD is a metal bodied loco but the Accurascale is so good all round even though it is plastic. I have bought a few Hornby Dublo steam locos and I got the opinion that the quality assurance on them was worse than the ordinary models. Of course in my case I couldn't exchange my duff one for another one, as the place I bought it from only got issued just enough to meet orders. I just got the opinion Hornby thought it would sit in a glass case, so who cares if it doesn't run that well. I once said on the Hornby Forum that the catalogue was a wish list rather than say a TLC Direct catalogue which tells you exactly what they sell. I must admit I find the likes of Dapol and Accurascale have more appeal to me, I have at least 3 Flying Scotsmen so I don't need anymore. Similarly I bought the latest West Country from Hornby and was horrified that for all that money, it was at least a 20 year design with not even smokebox flicker (that would have cost next to nothing to fit).

Edited December 8, 2023 by ColinB

[natterjack]

2 hours ago, ColinB said:

Sorry but I haven't read all 18 pages of entries. I know it is a Hornby Dublo but why the big push for it when you can get the Accurascale one with sound for roughly the same price.

You pays your money and makes your choice- BTW you cannot (yet) get an Accurascale Deltic Prototype and it would appear the Hornby one will be accurater (sic) than the Kitmaster/Dapol and Bachmann options in OO.

[Dunsignalling]

9 hours ago, ColinB said:

Sorry but I haven't read all 18 pages of entries. I know it is a Hornby Dublo but why the big push for it when you can get the Accurascale one with sound for roughly the same price. I know the HD is a metal bodied loco but the Accurascale is so good all round even though it is plastic. I have bought a few Hornby Dublo steam locos and I got the opinion that the quality assurance on them was worse than the ordinary models. Of course in my case I couldn't exchange my duff one for another one, as the place I bought it from only got issued just enough to meet orders. I just got the opinion Hornby thought it would sit in a glass case, so who cares if it doesn't run that well. I once said on the Hornby Forum that the catalogue was a wish list rather than say a TLC Direct catalogue which tells you exactly what they sell. I must admit I find the likes of Dapol and Accurascale have more appeal to me, I have at least 3 Flying Scotsmen so I don't need anymore. Similarly I bought the latest West Country from Hornby and was horrified that for all that money, it was at least a 20 year design with not even smokebox flicker (that would have cost next to nothing to fit).

 

Any real steam loco with flicker coming from the smokebox would be in serious trouble! 😉

 

The prototype Deltic is shorter than the production series, which is why Accurascale steered clear. 

 

I haven't run a ruler over my Bachmann DP1 but I don't think they stretched it to fit their existing chassis! The model looks right to me, so I've never  bothered checking!

 

However, the bodywork on the prototype surrounds the bogies much more tightly than that on the BR locos, and Bachmann had to use undersized wheels to make it go round 2nd radius curves. Those who model in P4 with 6' minimum radii will be more than capable of rectifying matters to their satisfaction.

 

Hornby will presumably have to pursue a similar strategy. The alternative is to raise the body up on the bogies to create the necessary clearance, which would look far worse.  

 

In any event, the "New Hornby Dublo" concept is primarily aimed at collectors, some of whom won't even remove the model from the box for fear of lessening its future value, and most of the rest won't get any further than a display cabinet.

 

Only a (probable) minority of purchasers, who actually run their models will therefore be able to judge the level of QA applied to them, and most whose layouts "need" a DP1 are likely to already own a Bachmann one. Despite having not been made for a good while, they aren't hard to acquire.

 

John

 

Edited December 9, 2023 by Dunsignalling

[ColinB]

6 hours ago, natterjack said:

You pays your money and makes your choice- BTW you cannot (yet) get an Accurascale Deltic Prototype and it would appear the Hornby one will be accurater (sic) than the Kitmaster/Dapol and Bachmann options in OO.

Thank you for explaining that, I did wonder if that was the reason. Be interesting to see how it turns out.

[cctransuk]

8 hours ago, natterjack said:

You pays your money and makes your choice- BTW you cannot (yet) get an Accurascale Deltic Prototype and it would appear the Hornby one will be accurater (sic) than the Kitmaster/Dapol and Bachmann options in OO.

 

Are you able to be more precise about how the HD DELTIC will be more 'accurater' - or is this just Hornby's publicity bluster?

 

CJI.

[AY Mod]

27 minutes ago, cctransuk said:

Are you able to be more precise about how the HD DELTIC will be more 'accurater' - or is this just Hornby's publicity bluster?

 

It's a bold claim seeing as we haven't seen an EP yet.

[natterjack]

14 hours ago, cctransuk said:

Are you able to be more precise about how the HD DELTIC will be more 'accurater' - or is this just Hornby's publicity bluster?

Nope, just the sales hype - personally, I'm happy enough with my 7mm Loveless interpretation.

[GordonC]

14 hours ago, natterjack said:

Nope, just the sales hype - personally, I'm happy enough with my 7mm Loveless interpretation.

 

of course sales stuff never lies! I'm not sure its claimed to be more accurate, thats perhaps just an assumption about a newer model, but I'm not sure anything about the 3D print shows it will stand out from the existing, excellent, Bachmann model.

[Bulleidboy100]

I thought I read on this forum that Hornby would not be making any announcement of new models in January, as they usually do, but in future would announce new models either when they were on the boat or had actually arrived in the warehouse? The downside to this method, for some, is that the price would not change from announcement to delivery. I just made a huge saving on the 2MT, as I am sure others did, by ordering when it was announced in January 2021.

Edited December 11, 2023 by Bulleidboy100

[ColinB]

1 hour ago, Bulleidboy100 said:

I thought I read on this forum that Hornby would not be making any announcement of new models in January, as they usually do, but in future would announce new models either when they were on the boat or had actually arrived in the warehouse? The downside to this method, for some, is that the price would not change from announcement to delivery. I just made a huge saving on the 2MT, as I am sure others did, by ordering when it was announced in January 2021.

I know I mentioned this in another post, it also means though that they have to be more realistic about their pricing structure. It is great for us guys that order 2 years previous to the model being released we get it by the time it gets released for a discount price. Trouble is Hornby keeps inflating the price until they get to the situation they are now in, where certain models just don't sell because they are too expensive. It also means they have to be more realistic on what they can actually make. I notice that the Deltic is due to be released end of 2024, it was announced in Jan of this year, that is two years.

[Edge]

I think that the announcement was that Hornby would be making announcements every few months (in the same kind of way the Bachmann now does) beginning with an announcement in January 

[spamcan61]

6 minutes ago, Edge said:

I think that the announcement was that Hornby would be making announcements every few months (in the same kind of way the Bachmann now does) beginning with an announcement in January 

Think that was pretty much it, the statement was in issue 4 of the TT:120 magazine, which annoyingly I can't now find.

 

Edit: found my quote of the quote in a previous discussion:-

 

 >>>>>>>>>>

   

    Sarah: We are changing how we announce models and instead of a range launch taking place once a year, we will make more announcements at regular intervals so that not only will this be more exciting, it will also mean that people do not have so long to wait for the items to arrive into stock
 
https://www.rmweb.co.uk/forums/topic/180653-Hornby-2023-annual-report/?do=findComment&comment=5287646

Edited December 11, 2023 by spamcan61

[Dunsignalling]

48 minutes ago, spamcan61 said:

Think that was pretty much it, the statement was in issue 4 of the TT:120 magazine, which annoyingly I can't now find.

 

Edit: found my quote of the quote in a previous discussion:-

 

 >>>>>>>>>>

   

    Sarah: We are changing how we announce models and instead of a range launch taking place once a year, we will make more announcements at regular intervals so that not only will this be more exciting, it will also mean that people do not have so long to wait for the items to arrive into stock
 
https://www.rmweb.co.uk/forums/topic/180653-Hornby-2023-annual-report/?do=findComment&comment=5287646

 

Interesting, but given that it was in a discussion about TT-120, does it apply across the board?

 

If so, how does that fit in with Hornby's established concept of the annual catalogue? 

 

John

 

Edited December 11, 2023 by Dunsignalling

[spamcan61]

1 hour ago, Dunsignalling said:

 

Interesting, but given that it was in a discussion about TT-120, does it apply across the board?

 

If so, how does that fit in with Hornby's established concept of the annual catalogue? 

 

John

 

It didn't actually state the discussion was limited to TT:120, it was just "an interview with the new marketing manager" or some such. Would've been nice to be clearer one way or another with regard to scope. In terms of TT:120 specifically I think they've still got a long way to go on the range announced at day 1 i.e. the first 4 stages of whatever they called them. So I wouldn't expect anything 'big bang's from TT:120 anyway.

[Bulleidboy100]

On 11/12/2023 at 17:51, ColinB said:

I I notice that the Deltic is due to be released end of 2024, it was announced in Jan of this year, that is two years.

Hornby have said many times that when they announce, for example, they are making a 2-10-10-2 loco, it will be a minimum of three years before it hits the shelves. The 2-10-10-2 loco was a fictitious example - just in case someone asks or tries to order one.🙄

Edited December 12, 2023 by Bulleidboy100

[maico]

On 07/12/2023 at 07:50, Covkid said:

But how many people who have bought one of the 8000 37s would buy a new DELTIC ?

Here is one who won't.

 

Enough. The sound Deltic is sold out on the Hornby site and the there are circa 65 ddc ready ones left.

 

Delivery is still a year away so it will sell out.

[spamcan61]

1 hour ago, Bulleidboy100 said:

Hornby have said many times that when they announce, for example, they are making a 2-10-10-2 loco, it will be a minimum of three years before it hits the shelves. The 2-10-10-2 loco was a fictitious example - just in case someone asks or tries to order one.🙄

The Class 71 was just under 2 years from scanning the prototype to available in the shops. The cynical might think that had something to do with a competitor also developing one