RMweb Gold Joseph_Pestell Posted February 12, 2014 RMweb Gold Share Posted February 12, 2014 If I might be permitted to go off topic for a moment - I disagree with this post, 1) Any infrastructure project costs BIG MONEY - that we tax payers, or customers, have to fund and the issue with that is how the project is 'sold' to us. 2) The Civil Engineering profession should not need to lobby anybody, they should be able to remind people of their successes, but the masses are possibly ignorant, or fearful, of Civil Engineers (I refer you to read any book about Thomas Bouch and the Tay Bridge) 3) Modern politicians are not looking any further than the next election, to them any major engineering project is a photo op. and a sound bite, they have no long term interest in any projects - unless it has an effect on them - see my point four. 4) The early motorways were built by a company called Marples Ridgeway, at a similar time there was an Ernest Marples M.P. enough said! Starting to head back on topic, There has been a lot of comment about the LSWR route being reopened, and the New Waverley route has been mentioned, and the case for The Waverley route reopening should be used as an object lesson by all concerned - it wasn't until the first draft of plans had been produced and publicly inspected that anyone asked about tourist and excursion trains, and the plans had to be altered. Devon, Cornwall, Network Rail and the Railtour Operators Association should all be involved in any planning for a reopened LSWR line. And finally - back on topic After the day that all the FGW and Network Rail staff have had, I would just like to say thank you for all that you are doing in these trying days, and I hope that a long lasting solution can be found for all these problems. From what you write, I am not really sure that you do disagree with my post. Yes, of course infrastructure projects cost a lot of money. But then much of that money gets recycled back into the wider UK economy and creates further wealth (not quite so true today with a more global economy). It is because they cost a lot of money that they need proper strategic thinking rather than the short-termism of politicians looking at their next election, an attitude that gives the NIMBYs their strength. It's that sort of strategic thinking that the Civil Engineering profession should be championing. Without it, you don't get to see projects like that A16 viaduct pictured earlier in the thread. Cost-benefit analysis determines whether the cost of the infrastructure is covered financially by improved performance in the economy and, therefore, more tax revenues.. And however much the infrastructure projects cost, is that more expensive than the damage to the economy of a long stoppage of rail service, cost of temporary repairs at overtime rates, followed by proper repairs, etc.................................? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RMweb Premium PhilJ W Posted February 12, 2014 RMweb Premium Share Posted February 12, 2014 Here we go again. Another big one forecast later today with winds predicted on the shipping forecast of storm/violent storm (even hurricane force 12 in the approaches). Wind gusts predicted of 70 mph +. Even gusts of up to 100mph predicted on the Welsh coasts. That's not to mention potentially 'a month's rain' in a couple of days. Edit Post relevant to both threads now I guess Whilst the winds are in the current direction things will not be too bad (or at least no worse than the last few days). However this mornings forecast shows gale force winds from the SSE on Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RMweb Premium brushman47544 Posted February 12, 2014 RMweb Premium Share Posted February 12, 2014 Any reinstatement of the LSWR route HAS to be done solely on the basis of providing a rail service to the Tavistock & Oakhampton areas. Sorry, but I cannot let that go unchallenged. If future rail passenger traffic growth continues as forecast, reopening the LSWR route throughout (Okehampton and Tavistock may well already be rail served by then) may be the best option for freeing up capacity on the Dawlish route, e.g. for more local trains. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RMweb Premium Mallard60022 Posted February 12, 2014 RMweb Premium Share Posted February 12, 2014 I have been looking at footage on UTube, reading some frightening testimony, and hearing some really sad stories on R4. While we are concentrating on this bit of railway, there is the horrendous damage that has happened all along the Cornish coast, both south and to some degree, north. I mention this as every person involved has said something like "never seen this in my lifetime". It is the ferocity of the sea that I can't quite comprehend.....truly awful. There is an interesting discussion entering the arena just now and that is the influence of the Sun's inactivity and how this coincides with all this extreme weather behaviour. Boy, are we just specs of dust compared to natural forces.... I do hope there is some respite soon so that the NR gangs can achieve more excellent work. It will be interesting to know if local people are extending their 'arms of friendship' to these lads and lasses. I'm sure the sight of some hot pasties and tea can boost the morale. All the best to you all. Phil, in a dryish 36E (for once) 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RMweb Gold Oldddudders Posted February 12, 2014 RMweb Gold Share Posted February 12, 2014 Sorry, but I cannot let that go unchallenged. If future rail passenger traffic growth continues as forecast, reopening the LSWR route throughout (Okehampton and Tavistock may well already be rail served by then) may be the best option for freeing up capacity on the Dawlish route, e.g. for more local trains. Quite right. The Trent Valley line had lamentable local services for decades because of the two-track section limiting capacity. Completing the four-tracking - another NR success! - has enabled regular local services to run again. With the national network seeing record levels of passenger use, any study would need to consider the strategic needs of 20/50 years time as a minimum, not just 2014. Having berated the Beeching era for lack of foresight in so many places, we should at least be aiming to get it right here now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Glorious NSE Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 You cant really mis me, Im in that lorry with NR on the sides! You can't miss him he'll be the guy wearing orange! Thoughts go out to anyone down there today, it's wild up here in Exeter. Stay safe guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadman Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Exeter's road system is really quite poor, no dual carriageways get anywhere near the city centre, nor is there anything like a ring road. It's one reason the replacement buses are better starting from Tiverton than Exeter - it can take a good 30-40 minutes to get from St Davids out to the motorway / A38; by which time, a service from Tiverton can be well past the area! The "Dawlish cutoff" could possibly give a faster & more resiliant route (while still serving Torbay), but whether it wll make sense financially is another thing... Exeter's road system is poor because of the city council (Minority of the transport grip can actually drive 3 out of 12). Signage indicated paris street would only be closed for 12 months although it became permanent. Traffic lights change to red in front of you on clear roads, no emerging traffic from side streets to warrant the change. No provision for those who work shifts, unable to use public transport when you work the first or last service etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RMweb Premium Gwiwer Posted February 12, 2014 RMweb Premium Share Posted February 12, 2014 Winds at Bass Point (Lizard) recorded as 83mph which is well into Beaufort Force 12 (hurricane) so I can only imagine how much water is piling over the sea wall again today. The containers are surely helping ameliorate the worst effects however. On the suggestion to shuttle trains to Dawlish Warren wold there be adequate demand even if it became possible? Mid winter means the only use would be by locals. But if a couple of peak trips were arranged to slot in around the works programme it might help. There should be no shortage of suitable rolling stock, the usual problem with any special arrangements, with such major disruption still ongoing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coombe Barton Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 (edited) On the suggestion to shuttle trains to Dawlish Warren wold there be adequate demand even if it became possible? Mid winter means the only use would be by locals. But if a couple of peak trips were arranged to slot in around the works programme it might help. There should be no shortage of suitable rolling stock, the usual problem with any special arrangements, with such major disruption still ongoing. Trouble is that works access is tidal - in six hour shifts - nothing the same from one day to the next. Edited February 12, 2014 by Coombe Barton Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
10800 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Wind very strong here at the moment, cats looking through French windows with WTF expressions (again). They are on the inside BTW. Fortunately wind is SW and it's just past low tide which is better news for the works at Dawlish, at least from the wave point of view. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trisonic Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I wuz lying in bad last night, thinking about this. One bright spot is that the Cap'n and the rest of the team at least don't have to deal with the U.S. Corps of Engineers.......... Best, Pete. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southernman46 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 The captain wasn't kidding, that did make a hell of a bang when the gas axe went through it. The guy doing it certainly jumped! A superb illustration of why the first cut into any CWR is done by gas torch - it can go anywhere..........admittedly this is slightly different to the norm though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rivercider Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 On the suggestion to shuttle trains to Dawlish Warren wold there be adequate demand even if it became possible? Mid winter means the only use would be by locals. But if a couple of peak trips were arranged to slot in around the works programme it might help. There should be no shortage of suitable rolling stock, the usual problem with any special arrangements, with such major disruption still ongoing. True the station is less well used in the winter, but when we stayed down there the week before the storm we used the train on 3 days and were by no means the only ones joining at the Warren. At least one of the caravan parks there is now effectively a residential park open 50 weeks a year (closed 2 weeks in Feb). A number of the residents are either retired or semi retired, and overhearing conversations it is obvious that many of them use their free bus passes as well as senior citizens railcards to get about. Also there is a lot of cross city commuter traffic from Starcross and St Thomas to Digby & Sowton for example. cheers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coombe Barton Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 (edited) More promises by David Cameron during Prime Minister's Question just now - probable reports on BBC later. BBC quote "Mr Cameron tackles a question on the Dawlish rail link - Network Rail will get all the help it needs, he says." Edited February 12, 2014 by Coombe Barton 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RMweb Gold Re6/6 Posted February 12, 2014 RMweb Gold Share Posted February 12, 2014 Wind very strong here at the moment, cats looking through French windows with WTF expressions (again). They are on the inside BTW. Fortunately wind is SW and it's just past low tide which is better news for the works at Dawlish, at least from the wave point of view. Getting a little unsettling here now. My new abode is higher up than I was before. The gusts are 'vibrating' the house walls when they hit. I shudder to think what the seas are like on SW/W facing coasts in the county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trisonic Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 (edited) Winds have to be sustained at 70mph plus for a Hurricane. Gusts don't count (except in real life)! Rick, Can you provide a link for me for weather data for the area? I'd like to check it out. Cheers, Pete. Edited February 12, 2014 by trisonic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Lurker Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Not a link to the data but a link to the BBC weather news which shows that there are Hurricane force winds forecast for certain sea areas: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-26153889 Lundy, Fastnet, and the Irish Sea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Glorious NSE Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Live weather feed from nearby Exmouth here: http://www.edgewatersports.com/weather.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trisonic Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 (edited) Looks like it calmed down quite a bit in the last hour, Martyn. Don't forget though that the wind speed and gusts as indicated are in "knots". Edit: Just found this site "Strategic Regional Coastal Monitoring Programmes" The trend in Wave Heights for Dawlish looks ominous. The geography of this location doesn't help much either... http://www.channelcoast.org/data_management/real_time_data/charts/?chart=103 Best, Pete. Edited February 12, 2014 by trisonic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pacific231G Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 (edited) Winds have to be sustained at 70mph plus for a Hurricane. Gusts don't count (except in real life)! Rick, Can you provide a link for me for weather data for the area? I'd like to check it out. Cheers, Pete. Force 12 (Hurricane >63knots ) winds aren't that uncommon around the British Isles and they're not the same as actual Hurricanes, you get F12 in the shipping forecasts several times most winters but they're usually further north. I can't remember the last time I saw one for Lundy which includes the whole Bristol Channel. At the moment the aerodrome readings are 32G49 for Bristol, 43G61 for Newquay and 31G42 for Exeter. The aerodrome forecasts are shorter term than the shipping forecasts and are forecasting winds this afternoon and evening of 35 Gusting 55knots for all three from 250 degrees so West South West but Newquay is already well above that. At sea those windspeeds would be gale force but the aerodromes are all somewhat inland so would normally have lower winds than the open sea. Knots to MPH is x 1.15 Edited February 12, 2014 by Pacific231G Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trisonic Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 (edited) 63 knots is about 71 mph - so it's about right. However see the waves heights (just off shore of Dawlish in my link). If I'm reading it correctly the wave heights (sometime) on 5th February were much higher. Best, Pete. Edited February 12, 2014 by trisonic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
10800 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 'Money no object', according to BBC TV news on now, apparently refers only to existing departmental contingency funds and only applies to the current situation and not for any future investment. There's no 'new" money on the table as yet. Winds have now dropped a bit here, and it's stopped raining for the moment, but it's scary looking at the Atlantic pressure charts for the next few days seeing all the deep depressions queuing up over Newfoundland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Etched Pixels Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Sorry, but I cannot let that go unchallenged. If future rail passenger traffic growth continues as forecast, reopening the LSWR route throughout (Okehampton and Tavistock may well already be rail served by then) may be the best option for freeing up capacity on the Dawlish route, e.g. for more local trains. And this is precisely why any decision about routes will be longer term and rigorously analysed. The economics of delays and closures will get turned into models, the risk assessments on the coastal route will get turned into actual numbers and values and costs. The local service benefits will be computed and so forth. It's also entirely possible at the end of this the answer will be none of the current three obvious proposals. Pulling traffic off the roads is not always a win either. The civil service likes to factor in losses in fuel tax revenue as an anti- to building the railway! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trisonic Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Jeez. The wave heights just reached 4 metres in a sharply rising pattern. I hope someone is monitoring this for the guys actually at work... Best, Pete. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RMweb Gold Captain Kernow Posted February 12, 2014 RMweb Gold Share Posted February 12, 2014 ...any chance of anything coming from Mars though? Well spotted re the quote (with apologies to H.G. Wells - or was it Jeff Wayne - can't remember..!) 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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