Things happening in China

[Martin_R]

There seems to be many things happening in China at the moment including the continuing devaluation of yuan and now the terrible events in Tianjin.

 

Talking with a couple of ex workmates earlier today in China there seems to be some kind of manufacturing meltdown in some provinces with small to medium manufacturing businesses of all types just disappearing virtually overnight leaving Chinese workers without any jobs. Just a few months ago the self same workers were being poached because of skill shortages now there seems to a complete reversal. 

 

I suspect our hobby will take a hit along with many other types of business - so much for the long term predicted growth and prosperity in China.

[Andy Y]

Can we please ensure this topic does not include selfish comments about the whereabouts of models with respect to Tianjin (as with a couple of other topics today)?

[Kris]

I would imagine that it is the closure of manufacturing plants that is causing the Chinese government to reduce the value to their currency to make their goods more competitive. It will be interesting to see if this works, or if a new manufacturing based develops in a different country. 

[Horsetan]

Eggs and baskets still spring to mind.

[Bernard Lamb]

If you go back to when the UK was in a similar state of development I reckon things would have been very much how they are in China at present.

Bernard

[Ozexpatriate]

There seems to be many things happening in China at the moment including the continuing devaluation of yuan and now the terrible events in Tianjin.

The explosion in Tianjin is quite terrible, dramatic and shocking but it will have little impact on the nation of China.

 

Even a place like the US where we (supposedly) have strong at least some token industrial safety regulations they do not prevent industrial accidents of a similar magnitude. I am reminded of the PEPCON disaster in Henderson Nevada (near Las Vegas) in 1988 or the West Fertilizer Company in West, Texas in 2013.  The difference is that in the US these facilities aren't usually as close to big population centres, though in West perhaps 75 buildings in the town were damaged and 15 people died.

 

Numerous YouTube videos of the PEPCON fire are available to those who seek them.

 

Just this week the Animus River in Colorado ran gold. Well actually it was gold coloured (bright yellow even) from the toxic slurry of lead, mercury and arsenic accidentally released from tailings from the defunct Gold King Mine. The Gold King Mine is upriver from Silverton in Colorado. The Durango to Silverton Railroad, beloved by US railfans, was built to serve such mines.  Ultimately the Animus flows to the Colorado.

 

Tianjin will hopefully raise questions about industrial safety and issues related to chemical storage in an urban area in China. I say hopefully. There are no doubt plenty of regulations in China, but they don't seem to have many that might restrain commerce.

[Ozexpatriate]

If you go back to when the UK was in a similar state of development I reckon things would have been very much how they are in China at present.

I'm reminded of 'dark satanic mills' for some reason.  Aberfan comes to mind too.

[pointstaken]

I'm always saddened when firemen are killed "in the line of duty", wherever that happens.

 

 Dennis

[Rivercider]

If you go back to when the UK was in a similar state of development I reckon things would have been very much how they are in China at present.

Bernard

True, and modern technology has enabled development in China to take place on a much larger scale, for good and bad,

presumably some of the lessons previously learned have been applied, others are being re-learned (see Chinese coal mining accidents for example)

 

cheers

[APOLLO]

China is like a gigantic flywheel running at very high speed. There is so much pent up energy / money / production / people / resource requirements / etc that if it were to go wrong quickly (break up) the whole world will be involved, heavily, and everyone worldwide will feel the effect / suffer to some degree.

 

I think this flywheel can go no faster. A gradual slowdown to a more suitable speed (whatever that is) is what needs to happen. Trouble is there are many factors involved, and many want the flywheel to turn even faster.

 

Then there is the vast amounts of energy / food / clean drinking water for over 1.4 Billion people. They import lots of energy and food, all their major rivers are heavily polluted.

An aging population also. Modern China has many future problems, (we all do) - but China's future problems are on a huge scale.

 

Interesting times ahead.

 

Brit15

[trisonic]

Some short memories? I can remember some chemical explosions and fires even in England in the past 20 years......

 

Best, Pete.

[roundhouse]

My other halfs work has an office that has been badly affected by the explosion . Luckily as it happened at night it was not full of workers but  she has heard that there are a few who lived nearby are missing with many more now without a home.

[PhilJ W]

Some short memories? I can remember some chemical explosions and fires even in England in the past 20 years......

 

Best, Pete.

Flixborough for example. What I noticed was the relatively low casualty rate considering the magnitude of the explosion. Also there is no or little evidence of search partys suggests that an evacuation had taken place or that people had fled after the first smaller explosion.

[Andy Hayter]

Going to the other point of the OP's post, the French model press are reporting that Modern Gala (who are the producers or production facilitators for LS Models) have been forced into liquidation following fraudulent activities.  Could this be the tip of an iceberg? 

[Arthur]

 

Do you mean Flixborough, 1974, Phil?

 

Caused by an inadequate 'temporary' bypass pipe in a process plant. A high death toll amongst those present at the plant, minimised by the fact that it happened on a Saturday.

[Colin_McLeod]

I'm always saddened when firemen are killed "in the line of duty", wherever that happens.

 

 Dennis

Agree though I would extend that sentiment to anyone killed while at work doing their job.

[Oldddudders]

Going to the other point of the OP's post, the French model press are reporting that Modern Gala (who are the producers or production facilitators for LS Models) have been forced into liquidation following fraudulent activities.  Could this be the tip of an iceberg?

 

I think there are plenty of examples world-wide of financial liberation, rapid expansion and fraud going hand in hand. I have a couple of Modern Gala products - their logo actually appears on the LS Models box. Sadly it would seem the promised X3953 Picasso in blue and cream, the prototype of which runs near my home, will not be modelled.

[kevinlms]

China is like a gigantic flywheel running at very high speed. There is so much pent up energy / money / production / people / resource requirements / etc that if it were to go wrong quickly (break up) the whole world will be involved, heavily, and everyone worldwide will feel the effect / suffer to some degree.

 

I think this flywheel can go no faster. A gradual slowdown to a more suitable speed (whatever that is) is what needs to happen. Trouble is there are many factors involved, and many want the flywheel to turn even faster.

 

Then there is the vast amounts of energy / food / clean drinking water for over 1.4 Billion people. They import lots of energy and food, all their major rivers are heavily polluted.

An aging population also. Modern China has many future problems, (we all do) - but China's future problems are on a huge scale.

 

Interesting times ahead.

 

Brit15

Double digit growth (or close to it) cannot continue for ever.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Historical_GDP_of_China#Annual_GDP

 

This week has seen several events that suggest, that this won't happen for a few years at least.

[The Lurker]

Even with the one child per couple rules, China's population has been expanding so rapidly that they have been needing to create 26 million new jobs a year to allow full employment.

 

The yuan devaluation will make exports cheaper for the world.

 

But it will make it more expensive for China to import.

 

With vast resources, there will be a drive to ensure that imports are replaced by self-produced goods.

[Reorte]

Even with the one child per couple rules, China's population has been expanding so rapidly that they have been needing to create 26 million new jobs a year to allow full employment.

How's that happened? Is the rule widely ignored, or has it not been in place long enough for the effects of earlier higher birth rates to still be rippling through?

 

Population growth is a massive worldwide problem. An ageing population is seen as one in some areas but the "solution" of more at the other end is very short-termist and will make things even worse in the long run (you're into pyramid scheme-type territory there, although the idea of constant economic growth so beloved by politicians looks like that too).

[woodenhead]

The problem they have is that the population are savers not spenders so the internal markets they need to bolster growth are not forthcoming, in a knee jerk to this they have devalued the currency to boost exports and keep growth going - but unless we buy it all then they will see lowering growth.

[Pacific231G]

The explosion in Tianjin is quite terrible, dramatic and shocking but it will have little impact on the nation of China.

 

Even a place like the US where we (supposedly) have strong at least some token industrial safety regulations they do not prevent industrial accidents of a similar magnitude. I am reminded of the PEPCON disaster in Henderson Nevada (near Las Vegas) in 1988 or the West Fertilizer Company in West, Texas in 2013.  The difference is that in the US these facilities aren't usually as close to big population centres, though in West perhaps 75 buildings in the town were damaged and 15 people died.

 

Numerous YouTube videos of the PEPCON fire are available to those who seek them.

 

Just this week the Animus River in Colorado ran gold. Well actually it was gold coloured (bright yellow even) from the toxic slurry of lead, mercury and arsenic accidentally released from tailings from the defunct Gold King Mine. The Gold King Mine is upriver from Silverton in Colorado. The Durango to Silverton Railroad, beloved by US railfans, was built to serve such mines.  Ultimately the Animus flows to the Colorado.

 

Tianjin will hopefully raise questions about industrial safety and issues related to chemical storage in an urban area in China. I say hopefully. There are no doubt plenty of regulations in China, but they don't seem to have many that might restrain commerce.

 I definitely agree. Tianjin will obviously raise questions about chemicals in urban areas but I'm not sure that it's simply a product of rapid development. Have any steps actually been taken in N.America to avoid a repeat of Lac Megantic in Canada two years ago where a runaway train of tankers destroyed muich of the town and killed 47 people?. The circumstances of that tragedy seemed like something from the early chapters of Red for Danger before we got a grip on railway safety. A railway  that carries no passengers can still threaten the lives of those around it. 

[Reorte]

The problem they have is that the population are savers not spenders so the internal markets they need to bolster growth are not forthcoming, in a knee jerk to this they have devalued the currency to boost exports and keep growth going - but unless we buy it all then they will see lowering growth.

Sounds rather short-termist unless the savers never spend the money they've saved. In any case even if they don't then that that's a problem is a sign of a serious flaw in the whole economic model. If people can save then they've presumably got everything (or at least most) of what they actually need, the rest of it only sounds marginally better than increasing jobs by having one person dig a hole and another fill it in.

[PhilJ W]

Do you mean Flixborough, 1974, Phil?

 

Caused by an inadequate 'temporary' bypass pipe in a process plant. A high death toll amongst those present at the plant, minimised by the fact that it happened on a Saturday.

Yes indeed, memory not as good as it was, and never very good anyway. Fixed now, or should that be flixed?

[kevinlms]

How's that happened? Is the rule widely ignored, or has it not been in place long enough for the effects of earlier higher birth rates to still be rippling through?

 

 

I thought that this rule was actively enforced, with many reports of pregnant mothers with existing children, being forcibly aborted!

 

An enormous problem that the Chinese have created is a large surplus of males, as a result of gendercide - a truly horrible impact of the majority of parents wanting a boy as a first child and not being able to have a 2nd child.

 

http://www.allgirlsallowed.org/gender-imbalance-china-statistics

 

So as well as the problems of searching for a partner, when there isn't one to be had, do they give up and 'act up' to society? Certainly Western countries have problems already, when single males have time on their hands.