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Possible production problems for Far East manufactured models?


shortliner

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Reminds you of we in the West 50 years ago......workers rights, wanting better wages etc.,.

Thanks to the OP for the link...very interesting to see this from the labour market viewpoint. When you read about the disruption the first thing that strikes me is that it's not surprising that the manufacture of Hornby models was so badly affected; and the second thing that strikes me is how fatuous the moans of anyone who hasn't got their promised model seems, in the face of the issues being played out with real people's lives on the other side of the world!    

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Thanks to the OP for the link...very interesting to see this from the labour market viewpoint. When you read about the disruption the first thing that strikes me is that it's not surprising that the manufacture of Hornby models was so badly affected; and the second thing that strikes me is how fatuous the moans of anyone who hasn't got their promised model seems, in the face of the issues being played out with real people's lives on the other side of the world!    

Well yes, but ... the strike only seems to have started in March (unless there had previously been a go slow?) so in theory previous production would not have been affected.  Secondly Kader announced a long time back that it was closing/had closed a former Sanda Kan factory because of increase in local taxation (in effect a sort of business rate it would seem) and taht this would in any case delay output until staff could be trained and production restarted.

 

So to be honest it could well be a s much a case of six of one and half a dozen of the other - Kader have said workers were being poached by other employers which doesn't sit quite so easily with tales of folk not wanting to move.  So do I believe this? - to be honest not entirely; do I believe Kader? - haven't got a clue.  All I do know is that stuff, not just for model railways, from China is not appearing as rapidly as it once did.  Time, again, to wait and see I think.

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My theory* - In much the same way that 'The selfish gene' drives evolutionary change, I think there's such a thing as 'The selfish dollar/pound' which drives capitalist economy  - the ever present push to get more for less money moves the actual production work to wherever pays the lowest wages. But there must come a stage where there is no longer anywhere with significantly cheaper labour force as the (rightful) demand and expectation for decent living standards spreads. At such a stage, there suddenly isn't anywhere to make a good profit and capitalism implodes. Get stocked up on essential supplies - and I don't mean model supplies either.....

 

* By Ann Elk [brackets] Miss [close brackets]

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 But there must come a stage where there is no longer anywhere with significantly cheaper labour force as the (rightful) demand and expectation for decent living standards spreads. At such a stage, there suddenly isn't anywhere to make a good profit and capitalism implodes...

Still half the world not making a decent wage because the location they live in is underdeveloped, so a long way to go before the cheap labour supply is run through. Last time I looked the UN's estimate was around 200 years to get the whole world onto a relatively level economic playing field from a circa 1970 start point. The change agent is capitalist industrialisation which began in earnest here about 1750. Before industrialisation capitalism functioned in a world that was fairly evenly developed at a much lower level of economic activity. No reason to believe it will not work equally well at a much higher level of activity globally: the present developed world is the model. I buy stuff from 'anywhere', sell my services 'anywhere'.

 

It's going to be a bumpy ride getting there. We (our species) just don't have the tools to manage the process by anything other than value exchange. It's the least worst solution. Not pretty, not fair, but it gets you there.

 

Model railways: China has moved beyond the point of being able to support the relatively low added value / highly labour intensive operation this requires. Kader are kidding themselves if they believe that production will stay in China with 20% annual wage increments. This business will be off to a new location. Seen this all before with Japan, their businesses had to outsource this class of work all over the Far East to remain competitive.

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At such a stage, there suddenly isn't anywhere to make a good profit and capitalism implodes. Get stocked up on essential supplies - and I don't mean model supplies either.....

 

You are right up to a point but capitalism as a whole will not implode. The areas that will suffer most are discretionary spending (such as hobbies) and branded goods where the profit margins are increased by perceived added value. Also manufactured desire where people are urged to get the latest smartphone/tablet/TV etc every 12-18 months will become unsustainable.

 

There will certainly be an adjustment in living standards and expectations but it will be a steady change rather than a short sharp shock as the rest of the world will catch up with us steadily rather than overnight.

 

Just like ancient Rome where the roman citizens lived in comparative luxury, their standard of living was maintained by slave labour and tribute paid by the rest of their empire. We are benefitting from the same effect in that we have outsourced our inflation, pollution etc. It is inevitable that this will catch up with us as eventually china will stop buying our debt and we will have to live within our means.

 

I suspect that in future years, the last half-century will look like a golden for the west that was bought by inflicting economic imperialism on the developing world.

 

Sorry for wandering slightly OT on such a cheery topic. :(

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Just an idle thought. I guess the goods found in our many £1 shops are Chinese, anyone know if there is a downturn in supplies to them?

 

Stewart

The quality/variety of goods in the £1 shops has certainly decreased over the past year or so, but that may be just a simple function of inflation.  After all, a couple of decades ago we had 50p shops with similar types of goods.  I suppose we should now be steeling ourselves for the advent of the £2 shop!

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....Can't help thinking when you look at it:

Big company buys a competitor

Shuts down the operation

restricts supply

removes the skill set / tools

indications of reduced future quality

Increases price..

 

all sounds a bit like playing monopoly to me......

 

Meanwhile, over at Pfizer....

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According to publications elsewhere, the entire CAD design team has resigned and left kader, no work since Chinese new year.

That rather pulls the plug, if true. Whatever the turnover in the nimble-fingered ones who assemble pins in holes for our delectation, without CAD there will be no new components. Secondhand and shop-soiled models are gonna see a further rise in prices, I bet.

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Meanwhile, over at Pfizer....

British companies  are no better.

 

After Pfizer sold the division I worked for to Cadbury , I along with the rest of the factory found ourselves redundant and all production transferred to Turkey and Canada.

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.....Secondhand and shop-soiled models are gonna see a further rise in prices, I bet.

 

...to say nothing of the many broken / damaged ones.

 

British companies are no better.

 

After Pfizer sold the division I worked for to Cadbury , I along with the rest of the factory found ourselves redundant and all production transferred to Turkey and Canada.

Was this before or after the Kraft takeover?

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...to say nothing of the many broken / damaged ones.

 

 

Was this before or after the Kraft takeover?

Before.

 

It annoys me to see Kraft accused and criticised for closing ex Cadbury factories.

 

Cadbury bought the Adams division ( 2nd biggest gum manufacturer world wide) from Pfizer and found themselves world wide with a surplus in production capacity and multiple manufacturing facitiies in some countries. Prior to the take over they had a 50 % stake in a factory in Turkey which was only operating at around 50 % capacity.

 

So they drew up a plan for redundancies and closure' s  world wide including several factories in the UK. 

 

Kraft took over before many of the closures were implemented and as a 'foreign' company took the flak for decisions made by that 'wonderful' family firm Cadbury. 

 

During the time I worked for Warner Lambert,  then Pfizer I found them both very good companies to work for.  My time working for Cadbury was short and not the best period.  Their plan was to close us with 90 day's notice,  ( statutory requirement) but our factory manager told Cadbury management they were not dealing with stupid people. We were bound to notice when equipment and machinery was shipped out to Turkey. So he got us 14 months notice during which time he and the HR dept instituted many programs to assist the work force in finding new jobs.

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According to publications elsewhere, the entire CAD design team has resigned and left kader, no work since Chinese new year.

 

Might this just be connected with the closure of the Kader (ex-Sanda Kan) factory in Dongguan (HK), where there have been (or still are) strikes rather than the other (main?) Kader factory/ies?

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Been talking with various people -who seem to have got info from reliable sources, but I can't verify that - who have told me this week that Hornby owe considerable monies to Chia, that their new top man has upset the Chinese by calling them idiots, and are seriously in doubt of getting production for a while. I am not trying to start a rumour, but wondering if anyone has heard anything similar?

 

Stewart

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Been talking with various people -who seem to have got info from reliable sources, but I can't verify that - who have told me this week that Hornby owe considerable monies to Chia, that their new top man has upset the Chinese by calling them idiots, and are seriously in doubt of getting production for a while. I am not trying to start a rumour, but wondering if anyone has heard anything similar?

 

Stewart

The comment about the money comes as no surprise as I have heard from a very reliable source that Hornby's biggest concern at present is cash.  

It has also been suggested in the past that the fact that models started appearing in fits & starts might be as much to do with the ability to pay for them all at once as to any production difficulties but I have no firm information to confirm that.

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Been talking with various people -who seem to have got info from reliable sources, but I can't verify that - who have told me this week that Hornby owe considerable monies to China, that their new top man has upset the Chinese by calling them idiots....

 

Bloody hell, I don't think even Frank "You've all done very well" Martin managed to make that sort of mistake. If you insult the Chinese, just remember that they can harbour very long (generations-long) and deep grudges against you as a result. China was a feudal society for a very very long time, and old habits / tendencies die hard.

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