Idle Speculation and the Hornby Announcement

[60B]

Okay here's the joined up thinking (not great for a Sunday Morning)

 

What do a (new) K2 especially with the K2/2 variant, (new) J36 - available for scanning, (re-tooled) Gresley Coaches and their already excellent LMS Class 5, and available Fowler 4F, and a new issue Clan - Clan Cameron have in common?

 

- Only arguably the most modelled line in Scotland

 

Anyone see where Hornby are going with this?

 

Glenfarg?

[Bob Reid]

Glenfarg?

 

Bzzzzz..... Wrong answer (unless it's a bit more obscure than I can come up with)?

[Jamie]

Re. 24/25

If it's that good ..."

 

Bob, as I'm sure hasn't passed you by, the Hornby model dates from the 70s.

 

Granted it's not as dire as the contemporary 21/29, but it has all the hallmarks of that period - moulded beading around the yellow panel, some very "indicative only" detailing, but what Russ is, I think, getting at is that the general shape is there around the cab ends. Whilst it may be in the target range of your nitpickers, so were the cl.60 and 56, both of which started in a much stronger position than the Triang-Hornby 25.

 

I'm personally not too phased about what might/might not come out - it's already possible to model a lot of Scotland with the existing LMS/LNE and BR standard types. Something RtR Caley or NB would suddenly lose an element of exclusivity, make it a bit harder to do something different. Don't scream elitism - I can't kitbuild either.

[60B]

Bzzzzz..... Wrong answer (unless it's a bit more obscure than I can come up with)?

 

West Highland?

[MarkSG]

 

In all honesty I wish that they would. The Railroad range would be enlivened considerably by the addition of the Battle Space turbo car, operating helicopter wagon, and satellite train.

 

I agree, seriously. When I was a kid I had a lot of that kind of stuff in my train set, and it was one of the things that made it attractive. As I got older I moved on to "real" modelling rather than just playing trains, but I'm not at all certain I'd have ended up there if I hadn't started from the position of having fun with rail-related toys. And I do think it's a gap in the market. The Thomas and Harry Potter tie-ins are aimed primarily at children, but that's a different kind of market to the kid who enjoys playing trains for their own sake rather than recreating a favourite TV programme or film. Pretty much the only "just for fun" items currently available are the Railroad "circus" themed models, which are nice but rather limited in action appeal. I'm sure that the rocket launcher and exploding wagon would sell very well, if reintroduced.

[Bob Reid]

West Highland?

 

Spot on Paul!

 

I'm sure this is where this is all going - albeit in a kind of - spread out over the years fashion - for the Scottish region applicable stock!

 

I guess in 3 weeks it'll be rather more obvious if I'm wrong!

[Bob Reid]

Re. 24/25

 

Bob, as I'm sure hasn't passed you by, the Hornby model dates from the 70s.

 

Granted it's not as dire as the contemporary 21/29, but it has all the hallmarks of that period - moulded beading around the yellow panel, some very "indicative only" detailing, but what Russ is, I think, getting at is that the general shape is there around the cab ends. Whilst it may be in the target range of your nitpickers, so were the cl.60 and 56, both of which started in a much stronger position than the Triang-Hornby 25.......................

 

I perhaps came at that from the wrong direction. Both are in the position of requiring, were they to be modernised for new production, to be fully re-designed and re-tooled - I doubt they'd use anything from the 70s version/s, and I doubt they've looked back at any of the old models when it comes to new production (other than for direct comparison). I feel however that a new build 21/29 being so long off the radar - even for the chop shop builders that it has a certain appeal over the 25 that Hornby may wish to capture. Who knows in reality - not me!

['CHARD]

Glenfarg? That was the runner-up scenario that I ditched when I went for Lessismore. Has anyone actually modelled the location? It's one of my most visited spots of ScR dereliction (and very beautiful decay it is too), but I've only ever seen two pictures of the stretch obliterated by the M90.

[Ravenser]

One way of approaching what they might do is from the negative angle. In the present climate retools of anything done recently are off the agenda - so no revised Gresleys, revised Kings etc. The market for "dinosaur diesels" is actually largely untested - classes 14, 15, 22, 23, 41 haven't actually appeared , and the sales of class 17 are an issue clouded with the smoke from a thousand burnt out motors. It seems unlikely 2010 will be the year Hornby say "must have a slice of that action!". 2011 seems more plausible there - once we've seen sales of 14, 15, and 22

 

The formula for several years has been 3 steamers + one D+E item - the latter often aimed at the trainset market (390, 395) and very bold. Then a range of coaching stock and some wagons

 

Here, for reference, is the Hornby section of the "scoreboard" from The Shape of Things to Come, slightly updated

 

Hornby:

2009 - Schools [released], Standard 4MT [released], Castle [release Dec/Jan], Clan [released], 395 Javelin [released], a wagon or two, Pullmans [observation car released, buffet released , others expected Dec/Jan]

2010 - LNER steam engine , one or two other steam engines, a D+E item?, Mk3 DVT and Mk3 buffet, ZCAs, OTA, ? GW coaches

 

 

The Schools and Standard 4MT were carry overs from the previous year. The airbraked wagon slot is already covered, and we have two new Mk3s in the line up already.

 

In the spring Pat Hammond at MREMag suggested Hornby might make a supplementary announcement if production problems cleared up which would be "good news for LNER fans". It never happened, but that strongly implies to me that Hornby already have an LNER loco up their sleeve. My guess is that the Mk3 DVT and buffet were also part of the potential supplementary announcement

 

Having cleared their backlog, Hornby are likely to have a more modest progamme for 2010 anyway - they need not scale back the announcements dramatically

 

It's reasonable to assume a new range of coaches. The question is what. They've successively replaced their LNER, LMS, and SR coach ranges, and their Pullmans. That just leaves the GW. They could of course replace their Mk2 aircons, or even their scale length Mk3s to make a play in the D+E sector. However both ranges are passable and I don't think this is the year for replacing the passable. I can see why GW has been left to last - the ex Dapol B set, auto trailer and Centenary stock are passable and the old Hornby Colletts were the best of a bad bunch. However general service mainline stock is missing.

 

A really left field suggestion here - some accurate Churchward era clerestory coaches to modern standards??? They'd sell with a Dean single or City of Truro. Hornby do go pre war not post war with coaches- unlike Bachmann

 

On to the locos. What would be the LNER loco? There is the argument that Hornby like big green namers for expresses, which points to something beginning with B.... The B17 has pedigree in the range, came up in our LNER thread and polled strongly in the MRE poll. B12 fared less well though the tooling is ancient and it would help Scotland. Caledonian's suggestion of a new B1 to challenge Bachmann's model has merit , though the pre-war/ECML tendency at Margate might point to the V2

 

That leaves one or two other locos plus some D+E traction. I think the Southern has been done to death, so a quiet year here. That leaves GW and LMS . Assuming they won't retool the passable Dean Goods , I think its too early for a Star on the Castle chassis - the Castle's not out yet. A Saint to modern standards might be an option since they missed out on the Halls, or a direct challenge to the Bachmann 43xx. They could do a new County 4-4-0 , or even a 42xx or 72xx

 

However one thing that emerges is that the options point strongly towards the pre Grouping Churchward era GWR; and Hornby's own GW stuff has often tended to be from that period

 

I'm assuming the lower selling price of small engines will mean they won't put the money into a new Pannier.

 

Does the LMS need another loco? Would they go for 2 GW locos and some coaches ? A new 4F?

 

On the D+E front I suspect it could be quite quiet. Things like new 25s or 29s don't ring true. A new Modernisation Plan DMU might make sense - or in traditional Triang style they could try upgrading some units with a new underframe eliminating the "black box" - 101 and 156 would be the best candidates, and they could then do a 2 car 101

[coachmann]

Quite a thoughtful essay there Ravenser. I don't think GWR clerestory coaches ring true though. City of Truro is as preserved, not as running when built so coaches from that early period are not strictly required. Besides CoT isn't even a Hornby product.

 

I'd expect Hornby to produce coaches to go with their impending 'Castle'. So it is likely we can expect new up to the minute GWR 57' Collett stock.....Brake Third, Composite, Corridor Third, and 'Ocean Mails' PBV. Liveries : fully panelled style lining, simple livery, and BR blood & custard.....the latter first!

 

These should keep modellers on their toes for a number of years like the Maunsells.

 

I guessed a new 'Castle' last year so if I'm wrong I'll eat my hat...

 

Larry

[Oldddudders]

Given the large number of Maunsells already released - in at least 4 liveries to date - those who aren't much concerned by affairs south of the Thames might assume that's that. It's just that these seem to sell rather well - or at least those varieties that fit people's layouts do. Check ebay and you find rather a lot of corridor firsts going cheap - when did you last see one of those on a branch or secondary route, as modelled by most of us? Point is, Hornby have only just started to release the "high corridor window" variant of Maunsell coach, as built from 1929 on, so it seems likely they will pursue that range, hopefully with more emphasis on brake seconds and brake composites, as used in huge numbers in Devon and Cornwall, as well as on the fabled Atlantic Coast Express.

[gwrrob]

Quite a thoughtful essay there Ravenser. I don't think GWR clerestory coaches ring true though. City of Truro is as preserved, not as running when built so coaches from that early period are not strictly required. Besides CoT isn't even a Hornby product.

 

I'd expect Hornby to produce coaches to go with their impending 'Castle'. So it is likely we can expect new up to the minute GWR 57' Collett stock.....Brake Third, Composite, Corridor Third, and 'Ocean Mails' PBV. Liveries : fully panelled style lining, simple livery, and BR blood & custard.....the latter first!

Larry[/i][/i]

 

I would settle for some of those Larry.I disagree on the B sets and Cententaries being passable.They might have been decent in the late 70s but not now.Just look how many crop up on ebay.

[Barry Ten]

I would settle for some of those Larry.I disagree on the B sets and Cententaries being passable.They might have been decent in the late 70s but not now.Just look how many crop up on ebay.

 

I??m not sure why they crop up on ebay but I think they (and the Airfix autocoach) are passable in the sense that they can be made into very good models with a little work, whereas the Hornby Collets need a lot more. Even they can be spruced up very nicely but it??s a significant amount of effort and perhaps not really worth it compared with the option of building a Comet kit from scratch. Granted the Centenary stock is limited in the number of types available but the real mystery must be why additional diagrams weren??t tooled up years ago - see also the Bachmann Collett stock, again very good basic models but lacking in variety.

[gwrrob]

I??m not sure why they crop up on ebay but I think they (and the Airfix autocoach) are passable in the sense that they can be made into very good models with a little work, whereas the Hornby Collets need a lot more. Even they can be spruced up very nicely but it??s a significant amount of effort and perhaps not really worth it compared with the option of building a Comet kit from scratch. Granted the Centenary stock is limited in the number of types available but the real mystery must be why additional diagrams weren??t tooled up years ago - see also the Bachmann Collett stock, again very good basic models but lacking in variety.

 

Having said that ,will the new Castle be able to pull a rake of kit built [Comet] coaches ?

I certainly agree we need more variety.

[Bloodnok]

It's reasonable to assume a new range of coaches. The question is what. They've successively replaced their LNER, LMS, and SR coach ranges, and their Pullmans. That just leaves the GW. They could of course replace their Mk2 aircons, or even their scale length Mk3s to make a play in the D+E sector. However both ranges are passable and I don't think this is the year for replacing the passable.

 

Here's a suggestion - loco hauled Mk3as.

 

IIRC these were last done by Jouef in the 1970s. Everything since has been HST (no buffers, roof, underframe and end differences).

 

Hornby currently have pictures of GC HST trailers on their website (which are converted Mk3as, so the vast majority of the details needed are in common with the loco hauled stock they were converted from). There is the Mk3b DVT that has been mentioned several times in this thread, and the new buffet (which is also a loco hauled coach). Why not also make a Mk3a TSO and FO - this would complete a West Coast train with the Limby 87 (or dare I suggest it 90...), and it'd sit well with the Pendolino, which they also have in their range...

[Wolf27]

I was in the local model shop yesterday and was trying to get the shop owner to drop some hints,as he said he does know what Hornby are planning but is sworn to secrecy, which is fair enough.

 

My money is on an all new 90.

 

Cheers

 

Shane

[60B]

Looking at this years poll, Truro topped the GW section with a 42XX second. The GC Director got far more votes than Truro. Heljan clearly looked at the poll and chose the top diesels (Baby Deltic and Lion). I really want to see what happens with next years poll as this year has seen a number of unexpected announcements. I suppose the poll depends on Hornby and Bachmann's plans for 2010.

[Ravenser]

Looking at this years poll, Truro topped the GW section with a 42XX second. The GC Director got far more votes than Truro. Heljan clearly looked at the poll and chose the top diesels (Baby Deltic and Lion). I really want to see what happens with next years poll as this year has seen a number of unexpected announcements. I suppose the poll depends on Hornby and Bachmann's plans for 2010.

 

 

The complication here is that the signal from MREMag about a possible LNER loco came early in the year, and Margate would have chosen their candidate before that poll, probably in autumn 2008.

 

Therefore I doubt the "delayed announcement" loco can be a D11 - it would probably be something in line with their traditional thinking (green, named , and six-coupled) rather than something that featured in a poll. I also suspect that the D11 needs to make a strong showing in the polls for at least 2 years before they'll go for it - so it could well be a question of the 2011 announcement

 

It would be fair to say that the 3 strongest LNER candidates - based on the discussion here, the MREMag poll and the current debate on MREMag - were the O4/ROD - which Bachmann have announced, the B17, and the D11. If either B17 or D11 is announced by Hornby , that will mean looking at the next group down. Only 18 days till we find out of course

[The Fatadder]

Only 18 days till we find out of course

 

Only 18 days to Christmas then, guess I aught to go and do my shopping.........

 

I see that there is going to be a 'Christmas surprise' in the next issue of DEMU's update thats due in the next couple of weeks. Cant help but speculate that it will be an early announcement of the D&E range......

[RedgateModels]

Looking at the review in HM they have retooled the tender chassis to take a tender mounted DCC decoder and the drawbar arrangement is a simple on with 4 wires passing to the loco. I can't see what changes have been made to the loco chassis, but HM claim that the only component common with the Brit is the tender body, so that implies a complete new chassis. Of course Hornby could simply use this chassis for all new Brits to recoup the tooling costs, but why not make me (at least) very happy and do a Duke of Gloucester (with sound)

 

 

Just been doing a comparison between the service sheets for the Clan and the current DCC ready Britannia shows that contrary to HM's opinion the Clan chassis is very much that of the Brit, only a few minor changes to move the decoder location to the tender - chassis, wheels, valve gear, bogies etc etc are all common. Does not mean that DoG is less likely though, just that Hornby have not invested heavily in an all new chassis for the Clan........

 

 

 

 

 

[great northern]

The complication here is that the signal from MREMag about a possible LNER loco came early in the year, and Margate would have chosen their candidate before that poll, probably in autumn 2008.

 

Therefore I doubt the "delayed announcement" loco can be a D11 - it would probably be something in line with their traditional thinking (green, named , and six-coupled) rather than something that featured in a poll. I also suspect that the D11 needs to make a strong showing in the polls for at least 2 years before they'll go for it - so it could well be a question of the 2011 announcement

 

It would be fair to say that the 3 strongest LNER candidates - based on the discussion here, the MREMag poll and the current debate on MREMag - were the O4/ROD - which Bachmann have announced, the B17, and the D11. If either B17 or D11 is announced by Hornby , that will mean looking at the next group down. Only 18 days till we find out of course

It's not an easy one to call, is it? I agree we need to take into account that what is announced now has been in the pipeline for some time, so the D11's high position will not have been a factor. It would logically be one for Bachmann now that they will have a GC tender shortly, but of course Hornby might already have been considering it. I just have a sneaking feeling that Bachmann may have delayed too long in announcing a retooled V2. It is long in the tooth, and split chassis. It is also big and green, well for some of the time anyway, and there is one in the national collection. I would not be surprised if Hornby jump in and beat them to it. I agree that the B17, or perhaps a D49, would be the most obvious choice, but I just have this feeling that things are changing, and that something entirely unexpected might be announced.

[34theletterbetweenB&D]

Interesting thought the V2; not many names (even if some of them are interminable) but OTOH going up against a competitor that is decidedly the weakest item among Bach's OO locos, for an 'easy win' on appearance and performance.

 

My money has been on Hornby renewing the B17 for three (going on four) reasons: force of habit; old model can go in Railroad, and there are all those football club names, (and in Railroad they can 'get away' with popular club names that never appeared in reality); and if tooled appropriately, content that could be shared with a B1, and if they offer the GER tender with the B17, a renewed B12 or perhaps a D16. (Surely they must be looking at getting more mileage out of their 4-4-0 chassis arrangement?)

 

 

[great northern]

Interesting thought the V2; not many names (even if some of them are interminable) but OTOH going up against a competitor that is decidedly the weakest item among Bach's OO locos, for an 'easy win' on appearance and performance.

 

My money has been on Hornby renewing the B17 for three (going on four) reasons: force of habit; old model can go in Railroad, and there are all those football club names, (and in Railroad they can 'get away' with popular club names that never appeared in reality); and if tooled appropriately, content that could be shared with a B1, and if they offer the GER tender with the B17, a renewed B12 or perhaps a D16. (Surely they must be looking at getting more mileage out of their 4-4-0 chassis arrangement?)

That was one of the suggestions I put to Simon Kohler. Build on the Britannia by adding more GE types, the B12 and B17 being the obvious ones given their long standing presence in the Hornby catalogue. I did mention that the tender would be right for a D16 also. We can only wait and see. Given my liking, to put it mildly, for B17's, that would come out very expensive for me, especially if they did the GE tender version too.

[Ravenser]

Interesting thought the V2; not many names (even if some of them are interminable) but OTOH going up against a competitor that is decidedly the weakest item among Bach's OO locos, for an 'easy win' on appearance and performance.

 

My money has been on Hornby renewing the B17 for three (going on four) reasons: force of habit; old model can go in Railroad, and there are all those football club names, (and in Railroad they can 'get away' with popular club names that never appeared in reality); and if tooled appropriately, content that could be shared with a B1, and if they offer the GER tender with the B17, a renewed B12 or perhaps a D16. (Surely they must be looking at getting more mileage out of their 4-4-0 chassis arrangement?)

 

 

 

 

My instinct is that the "good news for LNER fans" would be a new version of B17, B1, V2, or B12. Strong cases for all of them can be mounted - would they retool their own model first or take on a Bachmann split chassis first??. My guess is that the B12 is the least likely of the lot

 

great northern

 

It's not an easy one to call, is it? I agree we need to take into account that what is announced now has been in the pipeline for some time, so the D11's high position will not have been a factor. It would logically be one for Bachmann now that they will have a GC tender shortly, but of course Hornby might already have been considering it. I just have a sneaking feeling that Bachmann may have delayed too long in announcing a retooled V2. It is long in the tooth, and split chassis. It is also big and green, well for some of the time anyway, and there is one in the national collection. I would not be surprised if Hornby jump in and beat them to it. I agree that the B17, or perhaps a D49, would be the most obvious choice, but I just have this feeling that things are changing, and that something entirely unexpected might be announced.

 

I don't think Hornby would think the Bachmann ROD somehow stops them doing the D11. I'm convinced that Hornby will do another round of 4-4-0s for everyone, slowly, and we are therefore back to the debate about which LNER 4-4-0 we want. And I simply can't see Bachmann announcing a pre Grouping LNER 4-4-0 when they have conspiciously failed to do any new LNER stuff in recent years , and are much more focussed on post war and Grouping era locos. The Super D was their first tentative venture before 1923 . Bachmann have never done a 4-4-0- Hornby have done lots. They have unfinished business with their existing split chassis locos, and surely will tackle at least one of those first for the LNER - and to be honest many of their existing LNER locos are as promising a subject as a D11

 

I also think that somewhere down the track lies a new Hornby Compound, while current discussion about CoT suggests strongly that Hornby could get a lot of mileage out of a Dukedog. By the nature of the beast they can get another loco out of it by fitting a different body. But these are a couple of years away I reckon.

 

It looks like there might be a new LNER loco from both Hornby and Bachmann - I hope, different ones. One think the MRE debate has shown is just how bare the cupboard now is when it comes to large LMS and SR steamers

 

I think a review of the LNER situation once the Hornby announcement is out may be called for - we need to keep up the pressure , and keep the lobbying focussed behind a few targets - but the target shortlist may need to change. My instinct is to keep up the pressure for a D11, but the question is whether an 0-6-0 remains the next priority given the arrival of the O4 or whether a large passenger tank is more desirable

[S.A.C Martin]

I'm going to stick my neck out and hope it doesn't get chopped off...

 

With flangeless cartazzi wheels on the Brit, A3, A4, and the newly retooled Coronation chassis, I think the time is perfect for Hornby to do a 2-8-2 as a 2-8 with rear -2 flangeless.

 

Added to that, in the same vein as the clan and brit in recent years - green, named, express and visually stunning.

 

I'm going to stick my neck out and say if Hornby wanted to create a proper froth-fest - an absolute "WOW" factor, then a P2 (Cock of the North) plus the streamlined examples would be an absolute winner.

 

Thinking about it - we have the retooled Gresley Teak carriages already to make a suitable rake and it fits in with their perceived policy of prestige locomotives first and foremost. Not only that, but with an A3 and A4 in the range, you could easily recreate the pre-war "Top Shed" look quite easily...

 

I'm not saying it will be in the 2010 range - but I think the time is ripe for Hornby to make it so for the P2 class in years to come.

 

A B17, B12 and D49 are all the favourite candidates so far as I can ascertain, but I think Dave (Max Stafford's) suggestion of a director (Butler Henderson) could be precisely what'll be announced - like the P2, bright, colourful and has that express locomotive glamour we seem to clamour for from Hornby.

 

Having said that, the earlier suggestion of a goods engine or shunting tank engine - perhaps a J50 and J21? Or something midland or great western perhaps. A 16xx pannier tank and an aberdare or a 2P and a Deeley 1F?