Corona-virus - Impact of the Health Situation worldwide

[Andy Hayter]

4 hours ago, bourneagain said:

Just heard on the lunchtime news that Boris is now considering closing all the UK Ports, Airports and Eurostar? in order to try to contain this virus. Well I would have thought that this should have been his first course of action, 2 months ago. With most of Europe now in lock-down just what countries are those entering the UK now coming from? And I very much doubt if any are now being placed into the 14 day quarantine that the boat people were subject to. With the virus only being active for 14 days we may have had a chance to contain it. Too little, too late.

We are an island and as this virus can only be passed from person to person this would have been the obvious way to contain it. But we British are just too nice and we don`t really want to upset too many of our foreign friends by locking them out. So we are now paying the price.

 

As well as the immediate trade/living impacts already pointed out, there is the long view problem.

What is the endpoint of such isolation?  Assuming of course that you don't plan to be the North Korea of the Western world, at some stage you have to take the barriers down.  You then have an unprotected population exposed to the rest of the world with a high degree of immunity and a small number of virus carriers doing very little damage - until they arrive in the UK.

 

China will have exactly this issue with Hubei province and the rest of the country.  It will be interested to see how it is resolved.

[Oldddudders]

So UK now has a virtual lockdown rather like ours here in France - but without the silly paperwork!

[Nearholmer]

Well, we're all now nearly, but not quite, locked down!

 

Which, given what I mentioned above, I actually prefer, because it should reduce the shopping risk.

 

8 minutes ago, Andy Hayter said:

What is the endpoint of such isolation? 

 

The strategy seems to be to lock-down; ride out a peak; wait until plenty of hospital beds are available again and NHS staff have recovered; ease the lock-down a bit and let a few more people catch it; lock-down; ride out a peak; wait until plenty of hospital beds are available again; etc. etc., until there is either a vaccine or herd immunity ....... 18-24 months, maybe.

 

God help all of our mental health.

 

Will society crack, and say, in effect: "Blow it; most of the people who will die are either already sick, or ancient - let it take 'em!"? 

 

The potential for starkest division is between the struggling-young and the old ......... effectively the young are being asked to suffer to preserve the old, and there is already a bit of cross-generational annoyance about wealth accumulation since the response to the banking crash massively favoured those who already owned capital assets (mostly houses). The counter, of course, is that the old are the young's mum, dad, gran, granddad.

 

This could get rather challenging at multiple levels!

 

 

 

[Reorte]

4 minutes ago, midlands said:

 At the end of the day all Boris did is publicly ask people not to go out unless it's unavoidable....something that been said for the last three weeks...Only difference was the slight hint that non compliance may or may not be rewarded by a visit from plod

 

Changing from asking to being able to get the police on you is a great deal more than "only". It is a dark day indeed for the country. Having restrictions on things that you're not allowed to do is one thing, explicitly saying what you're allowed to do quite another. Close car parks, close parks, put up temporary no parking at the side of the road and enforce that - that makes it impractical to recreate the scenes from the weekend without stooping this low.

Edited March 23, 2020 by Reorte

[APOLLO]

Pretty scary thoughts there Nearholmer, regards society, the young etc.  Could well happen, especially in cities.

 

I'm sure we all have things to do round the house, garden, model railway, other hobbies etc. We all need to keep busy as much as possible.

 

Try to think, whilst at home, it's business as usual - (of course in actuality it isn't) -  it's a mental attitude type of thing. Easy for us old gits but certainly not easy for the young fit & active.

 

Things will not be easy for some - those in inner cities, flats etc. lots of folk have no gardens, lots have no hobbies other than socialising (pubs etc) - and that is gone for a while, perhaps quite a while. It will be tough for them. They need advice and reassurance - daily. (NOT the Daily Express type !!).

 

Common sense and decency will see us through - but those qualities are in short supply for some people these days.

 

Brit15 

[Gwiwer]

Boris has carefully avoided using the L-word in a script which sounded like the Head was now telling us off and not the teacher.

 

In reality most "non-essential" shops are already closed.  A few takeaways remained.  Some may yet do so depending upon their interpretation of being "asked" and providing delivered food potentially to the vulnerable.  

 

Those whose work cannot be done from home, including key workers, may carry on if essential.  Boris made no changes to the transport arrangements; most operators are working to something like Saturday timetables this week and preparing to move to Sunday timetables from next week anyway.  

 

Weddings were already limited to five persons.  Celebrant*, bride*, groom*, best man*, maid-of-honour*.  No-one much to be called upon here present to witness.  Funerals are exempt and provided distancing is respected there is no limit on attendance.  I have already been asked (on another forum) for an opinion on whether travel to a family or close friend's funeral is "essential"; in my view it is because such events cannot be indefinitely postponed.  I would never seek to challenge anyone in such circumstances.  Just respect distancing.  

 

So pretty much carry on as we were before here.  Just remember there won't be even a takeaway coffee shop open for now.  

 

* other designations of choice are equally implied and intended.  

 

 

[black and decker boy]

An unsurprising development this evening, matching our continental neighbours and as a direct consequence of holiday weekenders 

 

it’s going to be a long 3 weeks (or more) but better that than the dire alternative now playing out in Italy & Spain.

 

lets hope it’s not too late and we do slow the spread

[Gwiwer]

32 minutes ago, Nearholmer said:

God help all of our mental health.

 

Agreed.  And so far few if any words from Government about that.  The damage it will cause to untold numbers of people over goodness knows what timeframe is as unknown as the outcome of the virus itself.  

 

Quote

a long three weeks

 

But that takes us nicely to Easter which for many people might be a make-or-break point. Especially psychologically.  See above. 

Edited March 23, 2020 by Gwiwer

[Reorte]

7 minutes ago, Gwiwer said:

 

Agreed.  And so far few if any words from Government about that.  The damage it will cause to untold numbers of people over goodness knows what timeframe is as unknown as the outcome of the virus itself.  

 

 

But that takes us nicely to Easter which for many people might be a make-or-break point. Especially psychologically.  See above. 

If it's only until Easter people might start getting annoyed and bored but they'll get over that (I'm already annoyed but that's my default state of mind anyway). Much longer than that and you'll start getting damage. And thinking it'll all be sorted by Easter strikes me as far, far too optimistic, although obviously I'd love to be proven utterly wrong on that one.

Edited March 23, 2020 by Reorte

[Gwiwer]

Just now, Reorte said:

If it's only until Easter people might start getting annoyed and bored but they'll get over that (I'm already annoyed but that's my default state of mind anyway). Much longer than that and you'll start getting damage.

 

I strongly suspect Boris has had that in the back of his mind.  Minimise risk, minimise collateral damage, be aware of the simmering pot which is some parts of some inner cities and which is seldom far from boiling over for many reasons.  The last thing he wants is riots requiring armed response. 

[durham light infantry]

As a key worker in health care I was given a letter this afternoon which is effectively a travel permit. I won't go into the wording but we were told it is from a HMG template, which shows that Boris's statement was policy very early today.

 

Mike

[Gwiwer]

1 minute ago, durham light infantry said:

As a key worker in health care I was given a letter this afternoon which is effectively a travel permit. I won't go into the wording but we were told it is from a HMG template, which shows that Boris's statement was policy very early today.

 

Mike

 

I am aware of some railway signallers having had the same for a number of days now.  It will be interesting to see whether all staff are issued them, whether our photo ID is adequate or indeed whether any checks are made at all.  

[57xx]

59 minutes ago, Oldddudders said:

So UK now has a virtual lockdown rather like ours here in France - but without the silly paperwork!

 

Quite frankly, I'd rather have the "silly paperwork". Too many people here are too stupid/up themselves to take advice.

[russ p]

I wonder what will happen with that altered bank holiday for may which is Friday and Monday?

[andyman7]

57 minutes ago, Nearholmer said:

The strategy seems to be to lock-down; ride out a peak; wait until plenty of hospital beds are available again and NHS staff have recovered; ease the lock-down a bit and let a few more people catch it; lock-down; ride out a peak; wait until plenty of hospital beds are available again; etc. etc., until there is either a vaccine or herd immunity ....... 18-24 months, maybe.

 

God help all of our mental health.

For the very reason that you cite, I don't think that is feasible. The main reason for the lockdown is to buy time for:

- increased NHS capacity

- better testing (such as an antibody test)

- better therapies (to treat people more quickly and effectively)

Properly done (as now) it needs about 3-6 weeks to really slow transmission. The 12 week isolation for the most vulnerable , tough though that is, also helps minimise the potential highest peak load on the NHS. The very fact that COVID-19 is quite widespread means that there are also people building up resistence. 

Although I can't see all restrictions being  lifted until next year, bringing the virus under control and getting better data on how it behaves, how many people really get no or mild symptoms and rapid testing/tracing would allow something like normal life to resume in the late summer (domestically at least) with the proviso that outbreaks are ruthlessly tackled. By this time the hope is that the spectre of more widespread lockdowns will make everyone much more compliant.

Edited March 23, 2020 by andyman7

[Nearholmer]

I can see the "allowed out for one exercise a day" getting stretched long and thin, once the weather gets a few degrees warmer too.

 

Keen cyclists and walkers, and even the more self-punishing runners, count maybe six or eight hours with a picnic stop somewhere as one "session". 

 

Watch out for all sorts of creativity around this one by teenagers!

[Legend]

There’s a lot of narrative on here . I though the PM was very clear, followed up by the First Minister in Scotland 

 

You must stay home 

 

Its necessary to save lives .

 

Nothing to debate . It’s clear  . He didn’t mean 1 bit of exercise as being an 8 hour bike ride or an ascent of Snowdon . Anyone that does that hasn’t  got the message and is being irresponsible  or they’re just stupid .  I’d throw the book at them. 

 

 

Edited March 23, 2020 by Legend

[durham light infantry]

3 minutes ago, 57xx said:

 

Quite frankly, I'd rather have the "silly paperwork". Too many people here are too stupid/up themselves to take advice.

 

From the wording of the letter and the briefing I have been given, I would expect to be stopped and produce it, and photo id. There are contact details for the holder of the letter to be verified by those requesting it.

 

Mike

[midlands]

11 minutes ago, 57xx said:

 

Quite frankly, I'd rather have the "silly paperwork". Too many people here are too stupid/up themselves to take advice.

 

agreed, this is why I mentioned the fact that along with the new regulations comes no way to enforce or police them...Around here abouts certain groups will see boris's new orders as nothing more then a new challenge to beat and get around. Italy and Spain are a few weeks ahead of the UK in lockdowns and to me, the best thing we could do is bring our country up to speed asap with their methods, otherwise I can see us catching up with their respective infection and death rates very fast. just my thoughts.

Edited March 23, 2020 by midlands

[Reorte]

2 minutes ago, Legend said:

There’s a lot of narrative on here . I though the PM was very clear, followed up by the First Minister in Scotland 

 

You must stay home 

 

Its necessary to save lives .

 

Nothing to debate . It’s clear .

Except that isn't what they said. Go out for shopping. Go out for "one exercise" (whatever the hell that means).

And even if it was there's still plenty to debate, politicians absolutely need to be held to account for such actions. Especially during tough times they should not be able to say "do this, it's needed, end of."

[crompton 33]

I'm over 70 and  i have to walk my dog more then once a day .  Not every person can stay at home all day

[Legend]

3 minutes ago, Reorte said:

Except that isn't what they said. Go out for shopping. Go out for "one exercise" (whatever the hell that means).

And even if it was there's still plenty to debate, politicians absolutely need to be held to account for such actions. Especially during tough times they should not be able to say "do this, it's needed, end of."

The intent is clear .  Stay at home . 

[Liam]

2 minutes ago, crompton 33 said:

I'm over 70 and  i have to walk my dog more then once a day .  Not every person can stay at home all day

I agree, speaking as a fairly sporty 18 year old. Aside from physical activity, I’m so used to travelling regularly that staying in one location for (hopefully no more than) three weeks will be tough. I’ll just have to optimise ‘shopping trips’ and my ‘daily exercise’.

[Alister_G]

6 minutes ago, Reorte said:

Especially during tough times they should not be able to say "do this, it's needed, end of."

 

They wouldn't have to if there wasn't a section of the population who act selfishly, and disregard the requests that preceded today's instructions.

 

Al.

[midlands]

Just now, SVRlad said:

I’ll just have to optimise ‘shopping trips’ and my ‘daily exercise’.

 heh, This is where it starts. I'm sure tho if you keep your distance and don't get noticed to often you'll get away with it.