Corona-virus - Impact of the Health Situation worldwide

[Captain Kernow]

CTMK and I have imposed a voluntary social distancing policy, just trying to be on the safe side.

 

Much has been said about all this time we should be having for modelling etc., by staying at home, but am I the only one who's finding any available modelling time is seriously being eaten-into by keeping up with this thread, news websites etc., just trying to keep on top of the news as this thing changes almost by the minute?

 

Sorry, got to go and empty the dishwasher.

 

[Torper]

9 minutes ago, Gwiwer said:

Shock horror.  Cases locally have doubled.  To two. 

 

Here in Tayside there are 15 cases out of a population of 416,080 - that's 0.0036%.  And for that supermarket shelves are being emptied and they're shutting the place down and talking of imprisoning elderly people in their own homes.  I still fail to understand why it is being put about that this epidemic will infect more people then Spanish flu (c.25% in 1918/19 when there was no NHS, no remotely suitable drugs and a hugely depleted medical service) or Asian flu (18% in 1957).

 

DT

[Ron Ron Ron]

16 minutes ago, jonny777 said:

 

I have this message from someone in rural Italy - 

 

"For the record, I am in an area that is now in lockdown. Shops are closed except for the chemist, baker, and supermarket. You may only go into the baker and chemist one at a time. At the supermarket you must use a trolly. There are only 10 in circulation so you must wait outside till one is free. People wait at a distance of around 3M. You need to compile a self certificate before leaving the house; only essential movements are allowed. Spot check are made and several people in this small village have already been fined."

 

 

This has been the situation for my sister and her family in Italy over the last week.

They have to queue outside the supermarket, spaced well apart by a few metres and are only allowed in, when someone comes out.

I think she said it was only a dozen people allowed in at a time.

This is a moderately sized store that would probably have dozens, if not a hundred or more people inside at the busiest times.

Disposable gloves have to be worn at all times when in the supermarket and before handling a trolley.

The trolleys are being managed by staff and wiped down and sterilised between each use.

 

In no way do I wish to be an alarmist, but to give a flavour of what it feels like from within Lombardy, I'll try and relate what I've been told by my sister.

 

This morning, she said it was eerily quiet. No cars on the road. Nobody walking around. No noise apart from the occasional sound of ambulance sirens.

There are no funerals allowed. The deceased are being buried or cremated as quickly as possible, but there's now a backlog and dozens of coffins are reported to be building up at the main city Crematorium. 

 

The situation is already very bad, but if it spirals completely out of control, they've been told the only measure left is a complete and total lock down, as the Chinese applied in Wuhan. 

That means no food stores or chemists will be open and everybody confined to their homes to ride it out.

My sister thinks it's doubtful the government will go that far at this stage.

 

It sounds quite terrifying. Let's us hope that it doesn't come to that here.

 

Meanwhile, my wife's brother and family live in Spain.

They are now in total lockdown.

They are meant to only go out for essential supplies.

Even taking a dog for a walk has been banned.

All but essential work has been suspended.

His business has shut down and his wife's school is closed TFN.

 

 

.

[Hal Nail]

20 minutes ago, Torper said:

 

Here in Tayside there are 15 cases out of a population of 416,080 - that's 0.0036%.  And for that supermarket shelves are being emptied and they're shutting the place down and talking of imprisoning elderly people in their own homes.  I still fail to understand why it is being put about that this epidemic will infect more people then Spanish flu (c.25% in 1918/19 when there was no NHS, no remotely suitable drugs and a hugely depleted medical service) or Asian flu (18% in 1957).

 

DT

The cynic thinks we hadn't adopted the american attitude that if anything goes wrong you sue someone back then. 

 

And also these days I'm less confident i can trust any stats given out since they seem to vary depending on what argument they are being used to support!

Edited March 15, 2020 by Hal Nail

[MJI]

Not many but look at the slope it is pointing to a pandemic.

 

Looks like 30% to 50% more each day.

[runs as required]

I’d imagine that quite a few of us on RMweb fall into the age cohort that is about to be officially corralled.

Can I propose some “cake box challenge” occupation to be launched on the site that will get us beavering away two metres apart?

The most depressing thing I came across in one of the Sundays was a whole page list of telly watching via Netflix etc.

I think it was Disraeli who said when he felt like reading a novel, he sat down and wrote one.

 

Myself, I think I might venture into “virtual railway modelling”.

Edited March 15, 2020 by runs as required

[Ian Hargrave]

1 minute ago, Hal Nail said:

Apologies. Its a concerning time and poorly worded. Just trying to advocate people keeping calm that's all.

 
Accepted. Bless and take care.I’ll remove my post now.

[AY Mod]

14 minutes ago, runs as required said:

Can I propose some “cake box challenge” occupation to be launched on the site that will get us beavering away two metres apart?

 

Under consideration. 

[APOLLO]

How about a "What model railway item can you make out of a loo roll centre tube" challenge - there should be no shortage of those !!

 

Brit15

[Hal Nail]

15 minutes ago, runs as required said:

Myself, I think I might venture into “virtual railway modelling”.

Apart from frittering a whole day reading this and occasionally offending people, all I've achieved today is to stab myself whilst modifying a class 33 fuel tank. (Suppose I should start a tetanus thread really - those school jabs do last 35 years right?)

 

Virtual modelling sounds perfect.

 

 

[Oldddudders]

18 minutes ago, runs as required said:

Can I propose some “cake box challenge” occupation to be launched on the site that will get us beavering away two metres apart?

Two metres apart? Sounds like Broad Gauge to me. Thats a bit specialist!

[Ron Ron Ron]

The only Cake Box challenge I'm interested in right now, is the box of pastries than my daughter has just brought home.

Mmmmmmm!!!!!!

 

 

.

[Reorte]

1 hour ago, Torper said:

 

Here in Tayside there are 15 cases out of a population of 416,080 - that's 0.0036%.  And for that supermarket shelves are being emptied and they're shutting the place down and talking of imprisoning elderly people in their own homes.  I still fail to understand why it is being put about that this epidemic will infect more people then Spanish flu (c.25% in 1918/19 when there was no NHS, no remotely suitable drugs and a hugely depleted medical service) or Asian flu (18% in 1957).

Although to be fair, and as someone who finds the idea of lockdowns of the degree being talked about repulsive, even half or less of the impact of Spanish flu is something well worth avoiding. We definitely don't want even a shadow of that repeated.

[phil-b259]

Seen this on social media - and while I would usually be sceptical of anything seen on there, the post is actually 100% logical - and demonstrates why the mass lock-downs seen elsewhere are not favoured in the UK.

 

Professor Ian Donald

 

 “The govt strategy on #Coronavirus is more refined than those used in other countries and potentially very effective. But it is also riskier and based on a number of assumptions. They need to be correct, and the measures they introduce need to work when they are supposed to.. But it looks to me like. . .

 

A UK starting assumption is that a high number of the population will inevitably get infected whatever is done – up to 80%. As you can’t stop it, so it is best to manage it. 

 

There are limited health resources so the aim is to manage the flow of the seriously ill to these.

 

The Italian model the aims to stop infection. The UKs wants infection BUT of particular categories of people. The aim of the UK is to have as many lower risk people infected as possible. Immune people cannot infect others; the more there are the lower the risk of infection.

 

 That's herd immunity.

Based on this idea, at the moment the govt wants people to get infected, up until hospitals begin to reach capacity. At that they want to reduce, but not stop infection rate. Ideally they balance it so the numbers entering hospital = the number leaving.

 

That balance is the big risk.

 

All the time people are being treated, other mildly ill people are recovering and the population grows a higher percent of immune people who can’t infect. They can also return to work and keep things going normally - and go to the pubs.

 

The risk is being able to accurately manage infection flow relative to health case resources. Data on infection rates needs to be accurate, the measures they introduce need to work and at the time they want them to and to the degree they want, or the system is overwhelmed.

 

Schools: Kids generally won’t get very ill, so the govt can use them as a tool to infect others when you want to increase infection. When you need to slow infection, that tap can be turned off – at that point they close the schools. Politically risky for them to say this.

 

The same for large scale events - stop them when you want to slow infection rates; turn another tap off. This means schools etc are closed for a shorter period and disruption generally is therefore for a shorter period, AND with a growing immune population. This is sustainable.

After a while most of the population is immune, the seriously ill have all received treatment and the country is resistant. The more vulnerable are then less at risk. This is the end state the govt is aiming for and could achieve.

 BUT a key issue during this process is protection of those for whom the virus is fatal. It's not clear the full measures there are to protect those people. It assumes they can measure infection, that their behavioural expectations are met - people do what they think they will.

 

 The Italian (and others) strategy is to stop as much infection as possible - or all infection. This is appealing, but then what? The restrictions are not sustainable for months. So the will need to be relaxed. But that will lead to re-emergence of infections.

 

Then rates will then start to climb again. So they will have to reintroduce the restrictions each time infection rates rise.  That is not a sustainable model and takes much longer to achieve the goal of a largely immune population with low risk of infection of the vulnerable.

 

 As the government tries to achieve equilibrium between hospitalisations and infections, more interventions will appear. It's perhaps why there are at the moment few public information films on staying at home. They are treading a tight path, but possibly a sensible one.”

Edited March 15, 2020 by phil-b259

[Dunsignalling]

4 hours ago, Reorte said:

Or just say - "We recommened this, if you ignore it and catch it then don't expect treatment." Four months is a very long time. That's definitely cabin fever territory. Not so bad if you've got a big house and a garden maybe, but the mental damage to some in small flats or terraces will not be insignificant, that really is a downside that needs to be seriously considered in a group that already has problems with loneliness and isolation (issues still often sneered at by people who dismiss anything mental over physical).

 

On the practical side if you can't even go out to the shops - a group least likely to have the facilties to order online, and in any case is there even the delivery capacity (and can it be increased enough)?

From a couple of reports I've read, if/when the number of cases really takes off, "resources will be prioritised to those with the best chances of recovery".

 

I take that to mean under 70 (though under 65 was suggested in one item) and without pre-existing health issues. 

 

So, best to avoid catching it then.....

 

I'm 68 with acknowledged reclusive tendencies and perfectly happy in my own company (you don't last long in signalling if you aren't), but I do sympathise with the compulsively gregarious.

 

Even though I won't be grounded, I'm already cutting back on going out, though I expect to be doing more shopping as I'll need to supply my mum and step-dad who are up around 90.

 

To avoid suspicion, think a bottle of hair dye might find its way onto this week's shopping list. 

 

John

[Torper]

23 minutes ago, Reorte said:

Although to be fair, and as someone who finds the idea of lockdowns of the degree being talked about repulsive, even half or less of the impact of Spanish flu is something well worth avoiding. We definitely don't want even a shadow of that repeated.

 

I don't think you can or should talk about the effects of Spanish Flu and corona virus in the same breath.  Spanish flu (H1N1 influenza virus) killed hundreds of thousands but, as I said, only infected about 25% of a population entirely unprepared and largely incapable of dealing with it.  More recently, in 2009 there was another H1N1 virus, swine flu.  It was highly infectious and 540,000 people in England caught it, 138 died,   Other than some travel bans and advice as to hygiene etc, it seems that few steps were taken to control the epidemic, and certainly none as drastic as are now being considered and I am concerned that the cure may well turn out to be worse than the disease.

 

DT

[antrobuscp]

1 hour ago, The Stationmaster said:

 

 

I sha;; al;so be asking if a pneumovax h jab is of any value if Cov-19 gets to work (I had one a few weeks back, my request).

 

That is a question I asked via the BBC website a few days ago - no answer as yet. I'm sure, if in the positive, the answer would alleviate some worry for many. If negative, we're no worse off by knowing. Perhaps the simple answer is "they" don't know.

 

Edited March 15, 2020 by antrobuscp

[Torper]

Another question that is currenntly bothering me is how do people know if they actually have Cov-19?  It seems that no-one is being tested for it unless they become seriously ill and go into hospital.  So how do those people who feel a bit unwell, have some symptoms just a bit like ordinary flu or even a minor cold and cough and just self isolate for a week and follow advice not to call 111 or see their doctor know if they've had Cov-19 or not?  And if they don't know, how does the Government know?  This is particulalry important if, as is claimed, people who've had Cov19 once won't get it again.

 

DT

[Ozexpatriate]

8 hours ago, Colin_McLeod said:

That article's comments on the tank wagon picture is a classic example of seriously over analysing a joke.

It's what Snopes does.

 

Relevant was the context in the article, where this joke was being served up not as a joke but as a conspiracy theory on social media - an extension of the Wuhan biological warfare conspiracy theory. 

[jcredfer]

2 minutes ago, Torper said:

Another question that is currenntly bothering me is how do people know if they actually have Cov-19?  It seems that no-one is being tested for it unless they become seriously ill and go into hospital.  So how do those people who feel a bit unwell, have some symptoms just a bit like ordinary flu or even a minor cold and cough and just self isolate for a week and follow advice not to call 111 or see their doctor know if they've had Cov-19 or not?  And if they don't know, how does the Government know?  This is particulalry important if, as is claimed, people who've had Cov19 once won't get it again.

 

DT

 

I fully understand the need to limit the load on health resources and this would need provision of loads of testing posts [Pods?].  This would avoid pressure on standard NHS facilities, as is the intention.  Your point about the feedback on actual Covid numbers is well made and if not addressed, may well come back to bite those who are making the decisions, with the more important effect of biting the population, too.

 

Julian

 

[Dunsignalling]

5 minutes ago, Torper said:

 

I don't think you can or should talk about the effects of Spanish Flu and corona virus in the same breath.  Spanish flu (H1N1 influenza virus) killed hundreds of thousands but, as I said, only infected about 25% of a population entirely unprepared and largely incapable of dealing with it.  More recently, in 2009 there was another H1N1 virus, swine flu.  It was highly infectious and 540,000 people in England caught it, 138 died,   Other than some travel bans and advice as to hygiene etc, it seems that few steps were taken to control the epidemic, and certainly none as drastic as are now being considered and I am concerned that the cure may well turn out to be worse than the disease.

 

DT

IIRC, world deaths from Spanish Flu were estimated at 30 to 50 million, with a mortality rate of 2.5% of those infected.

 

Figures coming out of Italy suggest this Coronavirus roughly matches that percentage and some UK government projections have suggested that as many as 70% of the population will eventually get it. Judging from the recent acceleration in new cases, it does seems to be quite easy to catch so that figure seems credible. 

 

Doing the maths: 60 million x 70% x 2.5% comes to a possible UK-only worst-case-scenario of around a million dead, so it's easy to see why HMG are going in hard on pushing back peak infection rates to warmer months. 

 

 

PERSONAL OPINION

 

1. I accept the WHO's word that Covid-19 is extremely dangerous.

 

2. By now, medical advisers probably have a better handle on exactly how lethal it is than they state publicly.

 

3. Politicians are telling us enough to stimulate us to take strong precautions but not to cause mass panic. 

 

John

[Reorte]

16 minutes ago, Torper said:

Another question that is currenntly bothering me is how do people know if they actually have Cov-19?  It seems that no-one is being tested for it unless they become seriously ill and go into hospital.  So how do those people who feel a bit unwell, have some symptoms just a bit like ordinary flu or even a minor cold and cough and just self isolate for a week and follow advice not to call 111 or see their doctor know if they've had Cov-19 or not?  And if they don't know, how does the Government know?  This is particulalry important if, as is claimed, people who've had Cov19 once won't get it again.

 

On that front the advice isn't unreasonable at all IMO. There's only so much testing capacity - concentrate it where it matters. And whilst I don't at all support full lockdown, with the delays and limited testing capacity isolation of reasonable potentials is, well, reasonable.

[antrobuscp]

8 minutes ago, Torper said:

Another question that is currenntly bothering me is how do people know if they actually have Cov-19?  It seems that no-one is being tested for it unless they become seriously ill and go into hospital.  So how do those people who feel a bit unwell, have some symptoms just a bit like ordinary flu or even a minor cold and cough and just self isolate for a week and follow advice not to call 111 or see their doctor know if they've had Cov-19 or not?  And if they don't know, how does the Government know?  This is particulalry important if, as is claimed, people who've had Cov19 once won't get it again.

 

DT

 

Fully agree with this, particularly as, if you think you've had the virus and you haven't, you may relax precautions a little, and then end up catching it. I can understand that testing large numbers of people will divert some effort from front-line caring, but if you don't track the situation, how do you know you're plan is working? 

[JSpencer]

In France, the French health ministry has advised NOT to take any anti inflammatory drugs (Ibuprofene etc). Personally I'd avoid pain killers all togethor and let the immune system get on with it (unless your temperature is really high, but I guess you'll be wanting prefessional help by then).

 

https://www.bfmtv.com/sante/coronavirus-le-ministre-de-la-sante-recommande-d-eviter-les-anti-inflammatoires-1874879.html

 

The other thing to note is that it seems to infect the throat first, causing a slight sore throat before going down to the lungs. This will be the outer layer of skin, and while you may not be able to stop infection, you can hit that area, and hit it hard, with some hope of maybe slowing the infection down buying your immune system time. 

Regulary drinking water (small doses but often), especially gassy kind, can wash down the virus to your stomach where the acids will kill it (I guess as long as you don't dilute it with too much water). Maybe gargling in your throat with an anti septic solution can help too.

(Some advice has been to drink hot soup as well, though you need 60 degress to kill it which is hot enough to burn you).

Finally, don'r drink alcohol. That will weaken your defense system.

 

Edited March 15, 2020 by JSpencer

[jjb1970]

20 minutes ago, Torper said:

Another question that is currenntly bothering me is how do people know if they actually have Cov-19?  It seems that no-one is being tested for it unless they become seriously ill and go into hospital.  So how do those people who feel a bit unwell, have some symptoms just a bit like ordinary flu or even a minor cold and cough and just self isolate for a week and follow advice not to call 111 or see their doctor know if they've had Cov-19 or not?  And if they don't know, how does the Government know?  This is particulalry important if, as is claimed, people who've had Cov19 once won't get it again.

 

DT

 

I think the true infection rate is massively higher than confirmed cases, as was pretty much admitted by the government this week.  So far it appears that initial assurances that most people will suffer either mild or unpleasant but not abnormally so symptoms (and in some cases no symptoms) were correct. Which means numbers are essentially guessed and so is the mortality rate. However if infection rates are indeed much higher then that infers that mortality rates are probably a lot lower than if calculated from confirmed  cases.