Corona-virus - Impact of the Health Situation worldwide

[jjb1970]

3 minutes ago, PenrithBeacon said:

You were at greater risk of being hurt from the shrapnel of anti-aircraft shells than from the bombs themselves.

 

I have often wondered how many injuries and even deaths there are in the Middle East as a result of there tradition to let rip with AK47's and loose magazines of ammo into the sky to celebrate? I have even seen them letting rip with those big Russian heavy machine guns in joyous celebration. Those bullets must land somewhere. 

[AY Mod]

1 minute ago, John Tomlinson said:

Far, far more people have died already in recent months from winter flu than this new virus.

 

Comparisons with figures for flu, cancer, road accidents etc do rankle with me. Yes, they happen and are very serious but this is, largely, a problem on top of those which kills and impacts on health services to manage the more predictable numbers of the ongoing 'knowns'. To make these comparisons trivialises the gravity of this virus which has higher transmission and increased mortality above what we are used to.

 

This issue is very important to many and should not be countered with trivialisation.

[PenrithBeacon]

I have decided that at 76 (next Sunday) the best approach to this is to avoid crowds, so no more model railway shows until this thing goes away, no more visits to pubs at least on busy days and probably no more visits to the model railway club. The weekly visit to Tesco is just going to have to happen, no matter what.

I started this policy this weekend, so no Basingstoke show for me, but I do have to come to a decision on Scalefour North, the B&B was booked last November.

In place of this I've decided that weekly trips out will keep me sane, it was nice to see Sheringham at the weekend.

Regards

[boxbrownie]

1 hour ago, Gwiwer said:

Have you tried to book an online delivery since Friday?  All the apps have been closed.  They may reopen at a later date but for now they are gone.  As are the full websites.  

 

The irony is I received an email from Ocado yesterday - after their systems were taken offline - with an offer which I would have made good use of had I been able to.  But the order had to be placed by today .....  

 

Left hand - right hand.  

That’s odd, Waitrose just took an order........your not spreading panic are you? 

[Gwiwer]

Just now, boxbrownie said:

That’s odd, Waitrose just took an order........your not spreading panic are you? 

Not at all.  I shop in person at Waitrose but cannot access Tesco, Sainsburys, Morrisons, ASDA or Ocado online.  

 

Keep korma and curry on.  

[boxbrownie]

20 minutes ago, PenrithBeacon said:

You were at greater risk of being hurt from the shrapnel of anti-aircraft shells than from the bombs themselves.

But not if you were underground sheltered 

[John Tomlinson]

2 minutes ago, AY Mod said:

 

Comparisons with figures for flu, cancer, road accidents etc do rankle with me. Yes, they happen and are very serious but this is, largely, a problem on top of those which kills and impacts on health services to manage the more predictable numbers of the ongoing 'knowns'. To make these comparisons trivialises the gravity of this virus which has higher transmission and increased mortality above what we are used to.

 

This issue is very important to many and should not be countered with trivialisation.

I don't think I said it wasn't important, nor am I trivialising anything.

 

What I am trying to do is bring some kind of perspective overall. I stand by my point that endless panic inducing headlines of doom are helping no one, least of all the vulnerable who are worried anyway, nor our authorities who are, presumably, doing their best to come up with coherent plans and strategies.

 

The Nadine Dorries case is a good example, people need to be told that for the huge majority they are going to come through this.

 

John.

[boxbrownie]

10 minutes ago, Gwiwer said:

  I shop in person at Waitrose but cannot access Tesco, Sainsburys, Morrisons, ASDA or Ocado online.  

 

 

If you shop at Waitrose why would you want to shop elsewhere? 

 

 

Its OK......very tongue in cheek.

[jcredfer]

15 minutes ago, AY Mod said:

 

Comparisons with figures for flu, cancer, road accidents etc do rankle with me. Yes, they happen and are very serious but this is, largely, a problem on top of those which kills and impacts on health services to manage the more predictable numbers of the ongoing 'knowns'. To make these comparisons trivialises the gravity of this virus which has higher transmission and increased mortality above what we are used to.

 

This issue is very important to many and should not be countered with trivialisation.

 

Very much so, Covid - 19 is also very much in it's beginning stages, whereas the other figures are for long established causes of death, predictions on start-up Covid figures are simply meaningless.  The true comparisons can't be made until it is known what hold the Covid eventually achieves, I am aware that the predicted figures are seriously large numbers and the % deaths will be likewise no comparison to the current beginnings.  Other causes have had remedies applied, too, however a preventative jab for Covid is a good way off.

 

Julian

 

[Reorte]

1 hour ago, boxbrownie said:

Well maybe they are the ones that in the real WW2 said “oh the bombs will never get me” and stayed out of the underground during raids........that never worked out well.

 

No, once again that's trying to equate everything that's not one extreme with the other. Being distinctly unimpressed with very severe and draconian measures is not the equivalent of saying "shrug, nothing will happen to me,  waste of time doing anything."

 

What we've got here is a group of people being told to stay underground, constantly, for weeks, everywhere.

Edited March 15, 2020 by Reorte

[John Tomlinson]

2 minutes ago, jcredfer said:

 

Very much so, Covid - 19 is also very much in it's beginning stages, whereas the other figures are for long established causes of death, predictions on start-up Covid figures are simply meaningless.  The true comparisons can't be made until it is known what hold the Covid eventually achieves, I am aware that the predicted figures are seriously large numbers and the % deaths will be likewise no comparison to the current beginnings.  Other causes have had remedies applied, too, however a preventative jab for Covid is a good way off.

 

Julian

 

I'm really not trying to pick an argument here, but if in your first sentence "predictions... are simply meaningless", why in the second are you referencing " predicted figures are seriously large numbers"? I do agree we don't know enough to make accurate predictions, what we do know is that a number of people get this and scarcely know, and that another number have it and come through, presumably if the medical people are to be believed, with some immunity going forward that they didn't have before.

 

Just to be clear, on a personal note I am taking this very seriously until a clear picture is established to the contrary. My wife and I are both over 60, and she has health issues that make her more at risk. We're trying to be calm about planning for how we'll cope with isolation if needed, and the logistics of life such as shopping as we have no family to speak of, and live in a rural area. We've modified our behaviour to reduce contact with people already, to give what is a trivial example I'd intended to go to the model show in Nottingham this weekend and haven't.

 

In due course I'll be really interested to find out what the longevity and recurrence patterns are likely to be, and also what expectation there is for the virus to mutate a bit so that any inoculations are rendered ineffective, as I think has been demonstrated to be the case with flu jabs in the past.

 

John.

[Derek Russan]

In the light of shows being cancelled (none that we are attending so far) and noticably reduced attendance at the last two shows etc, Eileens Emporium have decided to reduce their threshold for free shipping. See full statement:

 

 

[jjb1970]

One persons discomfort at apparent hysteria and lack of perspective is another persons discomfort at complacency.

 

I am very much in the camp of thinking we need a sense of perspective. That isn't to dismiss the seriousness of the situation or advocate for not doing anything (something odd given the panic is that the recommended precautions are rather prosaic) but it is not healthy to panic or live in fear like some seem to be. That leads to health issues quite aside from the virus. We are seeing people complain about and deride panic buying and some crazy behaviours but what do people expect in the current climate of fear?

 

[Torper]

2 hours ago, John Tomlinson said:

I'd like to be hearing a lot more in the media about the people who've had this, with a few rough days and then recovered, and also the people who have contracted the virus and barely noticed.

 

Try this - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-51876080

 

Man in 50s, went to rugby match in Italy,  Three days after retrurn felt "a bit of a flu coming on. I had a mild fever, I felt shivery but the biggest symptom was aches and pains, particularly in my legs. "I was feverish - that continued through Thursday night and I didn't sleep too well."  He phoned 111, visited his local hospoital, was tested and diagnosed and admitted.  "From that point on I was subject to daily blood tests and throat and nose swabs.......By the time I went to hospital, I was feeling fine. The mild flu symptoms quickly dissipated, I had no leg pain, no fever, no cough and no shortness of breath."  He remained in isolation for eight days but his symptoms had disappeared within three or four days.  The patient asked to tell his story to the BBC during the virus crisis so that people do not panic over exposure to the disease.

 

Meanwhile, it seems that we over 70s are to be imprisoned in our own homes for several months for our own good.  Since childhood I have disliked being told that something is for my own good, and in adulthood I rather feel that it is for me to make that decision.  I certainly shan't abide by such a demand, but there again I have the good fortune to live in the country and can leave my front door and go for a three mile walk with the dogs without meeting anyone and I intend to continue doing that (if I do see anyone else I can give them a wide berth).  Another advantage of village life that already we have had two offers of help from neighbours who are prepared to do our shopping for us and anything else that would normally require us to leave the village.  It's certainly at times like this that one can see the value of a strong community.

 

DT.

 

Edited March 15, 2020 by Torper
Clarification

[Gwiwer]

4 minutes ago, Torper said:

Meanwhile, it seems that we over 70s are to be imprisoned in our own homes for several months for our own good.  Since childhood I have disliked being told that something is for my own good, and in adulthood I rather feel that it is for me to make that decision.  I certainly shan't abide by it,

Ditto.  Not over 70 but closing in on it.   I would be interested to learn the legal basis of such a move - if indeed it has one.  

[Jonboy]

3 minutes ago, Gwiwer said:

Ditto.  Not over 70 but closing in on it.   I would be interested to learn the legal basis of such a move - if indeed it has one.  

i would start with the civil contingencies act of 2004....

Edited March 15, 2020 by Jonboy

[Oldddudders]

5 minutes ago, Torper said:

Meanwhile, it seems that we over 70s are to be imprisoned in our own homes for several months for our own good. 

Not entirely. Few of us in our '70s have a job, or other key role to play outside the home. Most people younger than us do. By keeping us off the streets, and thus hopefully avoiding infection, scarce NHS resources can be concentrated on younger victims, whose lifestyle obligates them to be in the company of others, and thus at risk. 

 

Give a little. 

[Reorte]

1 minute ago, Oldddudders said:

Not entirely. Few of us in our '70s have a job, or other key role to play outside the home. Most people younger than us do. By keeping us off the streets, and thus hopefully avoiding infection, scarce NHS resources can be concentrated on younger victims, whose lifestyle obligates them to be in the company of others, and thus at risk. 

 

Give a little. 

Or just say - "We recommened this, if you ignore it and catch it then don't expect treatment." Four months is a very long time. That's definitely cabin fever territory. Not so bad if you've got a big house and a garden maybe, but the mental damage to some in small flats or terraces will not be insignificant, that really is a downside that needs to be seriously considered in a group that already has problems with loneliness and isolation (issues still often sneered at by people who dismiss anything mental over physical).

 

On the practical side if you can't even go out to the shops - a group least likely to have the facilties to order online, and in any case is there even the delivery capacity (and can it be increased enough)?

[jcredfer]

59 minutes ago, John Tomlinson said:

I'm really not trying to pick an argument here, but if in your first sentence "predictions... are simply meaningless", why in the second are you referencing " predicted figures are seriously large numbers"?

 

John.

 

HI John, I don't think we have any disagreement.  Predictions are the best we [those experts with appropriate knowledge] can do, plus guiding them with looking at what has happened elsewhere, particularly those places with much larger numbers.  I have no problem there at all and most of us understand the limitations.  What I was saying was the comparisons, some posters, have made from "start-up" Covid figures are simply meaningless, which several have done.  [ie. x infected with Flu each year and only y infected with Covid.]

 

I agree with the other points you made. too, being similarly placed.

 

Julian

[jcredfer]

10 minutes ago, Reorte said:

Or just say - "We recommened this, if you ignore it and catch it then don't expect treatment." Four months is a very long time. That's definitely cabin fever territory. Not so bad if you've got a big house and a garden maybe, but the mental damage to some in small flats or terraces will not be insignificant, that really is a downside that needs to be seriously considered in a group that already has problems with loneliness and isolation (issues still often sneered at by people who dismiss anything mental over physical).

 

On the practical side if you can't even go out to the shops - a group least likely to have the facilties to order online, and in any case is there even the delivery capacity (and can it be increased enough)?

 

Very understandable points, particularly for those in town, with limited space.  I don't [so far] think that means isolation from the public has to mean not going outside the front door, there is mention in the proposal that shopping for food would be permitted, for instance.  I assume that we can go outside, but should avoid getting near to other people, together with good hand-washing etc.

 

Julian

 

[Reorte]

4 minutes ago, jcredfer said:

 

Very understandable points, particularly for those in town, with limited space.  I don't [so far] think that means isolation from the public has to mean not going outside the front door, there is mention in the proposal that shopping for food would be permitted, for instance.  I assume that we can go outside, but should avoid getting near to other people, together with good hand-washing etc.

I may have got it wrong (too many rumours flying around unfortunately, apologies if I've subconciously been infected by one and am unwillingly spreading it ) but I was under the impression that the plan was for necessary supplies to be handled by delivery.

[PenrithBeacon]

If the government legislated then I would be obliged to stay at home. Ok but it would also need to legislate for food and household needs to be delivered, medication etc also. Perhaps councillors  to visit to keep me sane?

 There then arises just when you lift the ban. Those who are kept indoors are not immune to this disease but it isn't going to go away and a vaccine could be a year or more away.

I think Matt Hancock, not the brightest of bears, is just floating an idea, one that is going to sink before next Sunday's Marr Show

[John Tomlinson]

39 minutes ago, Torper said:

 

Try this - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-51876080

 

Man in 50s, went to rugby match in Italy,  Three days after retrurn felt "a bit of a flu coming on. I had a mild fever, I felt shivery but the biggest symptom was aches and pains, particularly in my legs. "I was feverish - that continued through Thursday night and I didn't sleep too well."  He phoned 111, visited his local hospoital, was tested and diagnosed and admitted.  "From that point on I was subject to daily blood tests and throat and nose swabs.......By the time I went to hospital, I was feeling fine. The mild flu symptoms quickly dissipated, I had no leg pain, no fever, no cough and no shortness of breath."  He remained in isolation for eight days but his symptoms had disappeared within three or four days.  The patient asked to tell his story to the BBC during the virus crisis so that people do not panic over exposure to the disease.

 

Meanwhile, it seems that we over 70s are to be imprisoned in our own homes for several months for our own good.  Since childhood I have disliked being told that something is for my own good, and in adulthood I rather feel that it is for me to make that decision.  I certainly shan't abide by it, but there again I have the good fortune to live in the country and can leave my front door and go for a three mile walk with the dogs without meeting anyone and I intend to continue doing that (if I do see anyone else I can give them a wide berth).  Another advantage of village life that already we have had two offers of help from neighbours who are prepared to do our shopping for us and anything else that would normally require us to leave the village.  It's certainly at times like this that one can see the value of a strong community.

 

DT.

 

I'd love to press double like and agree to this - it's exactly the kind of example I was thinking of.

 

I've no idea how isolation of over '70's can be enforced in practice in areas such as yours or mine. There isn't remotely the police or military presence to achieve it as far as I can see, and it looks like what there is will be rather busy in any case. Actually, a three mile walk with the dogs meeting no-one will be far more beneficial to your physical and mental well-being than staying indoors.

 

John.

[John Tomlinson]

20 minutes ago, jcredfer said:

 

HI John, I don't think we have any disagreement.  Predictions are the best we [those experts with appropriate knowledge] can do, plus guiding them with looking at what has happened elsewhere, particularly those places with much larger numbers.  I have no problem there at all and most of us understand the limitations.  What I was saying was the comparisons, some posters, have made from "start-up" Covid figures are simply meaningless, which several have done.  [ie. x infected with Flu each year and only y infected with Covid.]

 

I agree with the other points you made. too, being similarly placed.

 

Julian

Thanks for this.

 

I think what's really stung me into commenting in this thread was a post some hours back by someone not in the best of health, on their own, and to quote  "very scared". Worrying folk in that position even more is absolutely not what's needed, and hence my comments.

 

May we and our loved ones all stay safe and come through this!

 

John.

[boxbrownie]

1 hour ago, Reorte said:

No, once again that's trying to equate everything that's not one extreme with the other.

 

Isn't that what every has been doing in this thread?

 

Sighhhhhhhhhhhh