Lockdown’s Last Lingerings - (Covid since L2 ended)

[caradoc]

16 hours ago, Neil said:

All countries around the world are facing the same virus yet our outcome is significantly worse than others. Yes we're doing a good job of stating to vaccinate the population but the virus has caused a collapse of the NHS in some regions with urgent treatments such as cancer surgery being cancelled. Our utter shambles of a government either ignore or only implement at the last possible moment the advice of their scientific advisors.

 

While not disputing those figures, does every country calculate and report deaths from Covid in exactly the same way ? And, I believe that our UK statistics count a death from Covid if a positive test result was returned in the previous 28 days, so does that definitively prove that the death was caused by Covid and nothing else ? 

 

[rocor]

14 hours ago, Nearholmer said:

 

Lot of truth in that.

 

Next question is: why?

 

Any attempt to answer that opens up can after can of worms, which I think is possibly why people are reluctant to admit it.

 

At a personal level, I can answer that with no reluctance at all, with a single word reply. Beer. 

Edited January 15, 2021 by rocor
Personal was not personnel until posted.

[TheQ]

Until probably 5 years after this is over (maybe more) and you can analyze the before during and after figures you'll never actually know the true Numbers.

You'll probably get and average for before, a higher rate during and a lower rate after.. Since most of those who have died due to covid or missing operations, have died early therefore not appearing in the after figures..

 

We are practically the only country uses the within 28 days if having a positive test method, for instance until recently Spain never counted those in nursing homes, and now some regions do and others don't..  France doesn't count those as having it, if they died at home. Germany only counts those "with covid" not those that have had it recently..

[Nearholmer]

What counts as a covid-related death is subtly different in different places, Belgium seems to count deaths we wouldn't, and Russia decided to adjust their method not long ago because it was under-counting, I think, but our method isn't widely out of step with our peers from what I can discover.

 

The measure that is unambiguous is "excess deaths", deaths over and above average, and we do just as badly by that, so I don't think one can realistically ascribe our troubles to counting differently. (Item about excess deaths here https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55631693)

 

The PM, like him or not, doesn't appear to shirk from the fact that we've got bad scores so far, and IMO there is some (not complete) sense in his contention that it is too early to form a clear picture; if the vaccination deployment in the UK proves better/quicker/more-effective than typical, our ranking might change, which is why I said "2-0 fifteen minutes into the second half, with everything to play for".

 

 

Edited January 15, 2021 by Nearholmer

[chris p bacon]

9 minutes ago, caradoc said:

 

While not disputing those figures, does every country calculate and report deaths from Covid in exactly the same way ? And, I believe that our UK statistics count a death from Covid if a positive test result was returned in the previous 28 days, so does that definitively prove that the death was caused by Covid and nothing else ? 

 

 

My DiL works with people who suffer with terminal diseases such as Methosilioma, they are having problems with death certificates being issued by hospitals that show C19 as the primary cause of death when the reality is that they are taken into hospital for end of life care.  By certifying that C19 was the cause it negates the hospital having an autopsy. The problem for the family is that the autopsy is required by the insurance companies for any claim against an employer for poor working conditions.

One hospital has admitted (off the record) that by certifying C19 as cause of death it reduces their admin significantly. 

[TheQ]

1 hour ago, billbedford said:

 

We need fat and protein. There are no essential carbohydrates. But sweet starchy foods are cheap and profitable to made so for the last ~50 years our diet has to reflect what the food industry wants to provide. 

 

 

For the last 1000 years and more people have depended on bread to survive, it was and is, along with other carbohydrate based foods, cheap to produce. The difference these days is many choose to eat more than needed, and the poor are often not educated enough, to make good choices as to what to eat.

It's the public   that chooses what to eat, if they don't like it or it's too expensive, they won't buy it and the manufacturers won't make it.

[PenrithBeacon]

22 hours ago, PenrithBeacon said:

I've just had the first vaccination, very good, extremely efficient set up. Outlook a little more positive this afternoon!

You wouldn't believe it! Turns out that yesterday's invitation to attend the vaccination clinic was all a big mistake. I have received an SMS message to tell me to cancel the appointment as they're only doing the 80+ contingent at present. Too late!!!

I rang the GP surgery to explain and they apologised for any inconvenience caused. No inconvenience, I'm done, at least for now.     

[chrisf]

3 minutes ago, PenrithBeacon said:

You wouldn't believe it! Turns out that yesterday's invitation to attend the vaccination clinic was all a big mistake. I have received an SMS message to tell me to cancel the appointment as they're only doing the 80+ contingent at present. Too late!!!

I rang the GP surgery to explain and they apologised for any inconvenience caused. No inconvenience, I'm done, at least for now.     

Knowing my surgery, the belovd Stalag, they are leaving the 70-75s till last.

 

Chris

[rocor]

12 minutes ago, PenrithBeacon said:

You wouldn't believe it! Turns out that yesterday's invitation to attend the vaccination clinic was all a big mistake. I have received an SMS message to tell me to cancel the appointment as they're only doing the 80+ contingent at present. Too late!!!

I rang the GP surgery to explain and they apologised for any inconvenience caused. No inconvenience, I'm done, at least for now.     

 

As long as you are not required to return the vaccine.

[Fenman]

28 minutes ago, TheQ said:

For the last 1000 years and more people have depended on bread to survive, ...

Some people. A bit of quick & dirty research into what different people around the world have eaten for the last thousand years shows a much more varied picture. 
 

My favourite group is the Nuer, whose diet consisted almost entirely of the milk they got from their cows, supplemented by a sausage made from bleeding their cows once a week, supplemented by an occasional beef festival when one of their poor beasts reached the end of its natural. 
 

Five portions of fruit and veg a day? Nonsense!

 

Paul

Edited January 15, 2021 by Fenman
Missing word

[Oldddudders]

1 hour ago, chrisf said:

Knowing my surgery, the belovd Stalag, they are leaving the 70-75s till last.

 

Chris

I think that is Tier 4 in the UK? Target mid-February.  I think 14m has been quoted as the number of people over 70. From where I sit, UK is doing rather well on vaccing. As of yesterday, France has done 318k.

[Oldddudders]

1 hour ago, Nearholmer said:

What counts as a covid-related death is subtly different in different places

Here in France, the unambiguous fact is that there were almost 54k more deaths in 2020 than in 2019, an increase of 9%. Covid has to have been responsible, directly or indirectly, for the vast majority of those extra deaths. 

[Nearholmer]

The equivalent figure for the UK was 85 000 excess deaths in 2020, an increase of 14%,  the populations of the two countries being very similar in number.

 

As I said, we aren't doing well by that measure either, and it doesn't alter things if any given excess death has been due to the disease, or to precautions against the disease, it wouldn't have happened without the disease.

Edited January 15, 2021 by Nearholmer

[stewartingram]

16 hours ago, monkeysarefun said:

International tennis players began arriving today to begin their 2 week quarantine ahead of the Australian Open.  

My question about this really DOES have to be....WHY  do they need to go?

[Oldddudders]

1 minute ago, stewartingram said:

My question about this really DOES have to be....WHY  do they need to go?

You know the answer - money and sponsorships. And some countries use sport to achieve international prestige. I believe Oz to rate sport very highly. 

[Nick C]

Went out for our walk at lunchtime, and at one point came across two middle-aged women coming the other way, side by side taking up the full width of the pavement. We moved over into a driveway to make as much space as possible to pass safely - they didn't even acknowledge us, let alone make any concessions for our safety. 

[Gilbert]

2 minutes ago, Nick C said:

Went out for our walk at lunchtime, and at one point came across two middle-aged women coming the other way, side by side taking up the full width of the pavement. We moved over into a driveway to make as much space as possible to pass safely - they didn't even acknowledge us, let alone make any concessions for our safety. 

You're not alone...

[Jonboy]

1 hour ago, stewartingram said:

My question about this really DOES have to be....WHY  do they need to go?

the expression bread and circuses comes to mind....

[Nearholmer]

Looking at the latest figures, here we do seem to be on a downward, if bumpy, trajectory of case numbers, being now somewhere about the place we were in the immediate run-up to being "Tier-Foured" the weekend before Christmas.

 

One thing that makes me twitch slightly is the "above/below national average indicator" that is used for localities, which can offer false reassurance. The national average is now so blooming high that an area can be below it, yet still in a very bad place virus-wise, as is the case where my mother lives, which now has a virus rate that would have made anyone's hair stand on end last year, despite being a decidedly quiet place (its busier here in deepest lockdown than it is there on a peak shopping day in normal times!).

[John M Upton]

All travel corridors into the UK close at 04:00 on Monday, nine months too late and now probably will result in mass inward travel between now and Sunday night...

 

That horse has well and truly bolted....

[hayfield]

5 hours ago, caradoc said:

 

While not disputing those figures, does every country calculate and report deaths from Covid in exactly the same way ? And, I believe that our UK statistics count a death from Covid if a positive test result was returned in the previous 28 days, so does that definitively prove that the death was caused by Covid and nothing else ? 

 

 

 

I totally agree with you, the stupid thing is if someone is run over by a bus and died if they had a positive test within 28 days then they are in the covid death statistics 

Next up we are testing far more people per size of population, so we are going to find more infected people

Then how many who died of covid in the early months in the most affected areas in Europe had positive tests or were added into the count

Yes half our care homes were seriously affected by covid, was it the governments recommendations that were at fault, failure of hospitals not (able) testing patients being released or the way some care homes were run. On the other hand it might just be the old rules for virus protection were inadequate for this new virus.

My own view any government would be in the same situation, across Europe all countries are struggling, even Germany are reporting up to 1500 deaths a day, France and Italy have nightly curfews, how many are being vaccinated a day in Europe? seems some countries are very slow off the mark 

 

[Oldddudders]

44 minutes ago, John M Upton said:

All travel corridors into the UK close at 04:00 on Monday, nine months too late and now probably will result in mass inward travel between now and Sunday night...

 

That horse has well and truly bolted....

But those "corridors" were from the minority of countries where Covid was less rampant. Travel to the UK will still be possible where a negative test has been recorded in the previous 72 hrs, and a 10-day quarantine will be required. Those requirements have been in place for some time for countries not included in the "corridors". 

[Reorte]

33 minutes ago, hayfield said:

I totally agree with you, the stupid thing is if someone is run over by a bus and died if they had a positive test within 28 days then they are in the covid death statistics

Whilst technically that's true by all accounts I have doubts whether removing such from the numbers would result in a statistically significant difference.

[jcm@gwr]

There is (I believe) another reason for recording a death, in a hospital, as a Covid death.

They can claim more money to help, from the government, so there is no incentive to

change that situation.

Plus, I've no problem with that, if the NHS can get more money out of the government, that has been cut from their budget due to austerity (or whatever),

then good luck to them!

Edited January 15, 2021 by jcm@gwr
keyboard/chair interface problem!

[monkeysarefun]

7 hours ago, stewartingram said:

My question about this really DOES have to be....WHY  do they need to go?

With tens of thousands of expats still in queues to get back here, and with many people from Victoria stuck in NSW barred from returning due to the Vic governments quarantine ban on NSW, bringing in 1000 players and support staff from all over the world including corona hotspots is something most people here feel is a pretty dumb and unfair idea. Victorians did 111 days of the toughest lockdown in the world over winter to get their case number back to zero, to risk all that for the sake of a few tennis matches is really stupid.

 

On the other hand, our lives here are pretty well back to normal apart from interstate and international travel and normal life includes international sport. The Indian critcket team is currently touring here playing matches in front of crowds so the tennis is just another part of a summer that is returning to normal.

 

Now I'm off to the beach.

Edited January 15, 2021 by monkeysarefun