Car door slamming!

[Hroth]

They're now talking about road tax on electric cars, ways to levy excise duty on electricity for road use and that perennial favourite, road pricing.

[peanuts]

9 hours ago, Hroth said:

They're now talking about road tax on electric cars, ways to levy excise duty on electricity for road use and that perennial favourite, road pricing.

this is inevitable encourage use of certain product by making its use cheaper than the alternative when enough have commited tax it to replace lost revenue .remember being encouraged to buy diesels as they were cheaper to fuel and more efficient then bang the fuel duty was increased to compensate for less petrol cars 

[Ron Ron Ron]

14 hours ago, Tim V said:

Unfortunately, we are expected to throw away perfectly good cars in the 'quest' for electricity. Modern cars are not expected to last more than eight years (though mine is 15 years old!).

 

Meanwhile, electric prices go through the roof.

 

Sorry Tim, but that is completely wrong.

Cars are lasting much longer than they ever have done.

 

The average age for a car at scrappage in the UK, is now around 14 years old, which is the highest it's ever been.

 

Similarly, the average age of all cars on the road the UK is 8.4 years.

Again, the highest figure since records began.

 

With the vast improvement in materials quality, rustproofing and greater safety and structural integrity, the most common reason for scrapping cars is mechanical wear or uneconomical mechanical failure, mostly relating to the internal combustion engine, its drivetrain and the supporting ancillary components and systems.

2nd is accident damage.

 

 

Nobody is expected to "throw away perfectly good cars in the 'quest' for electricity", as it's expected that the ICE powered fleet will naturally diminish in the decade and a half after 2030.

The ban on new ICE car sales from 2030, takes that into account.

There is no complete ban on the ownership or use of ICE vehicles currently being proposed, except in current and proposed urban clean air zones.

 

As for longevity, it is expected that electrically powered cars, will outlive the average ICE powered equivalents, due to the complete absence of many of the mechanical components that contribute to the limited life of vehicles today. The batteries will outlive the average ICE car.

 

 

 

.

 

Edited February 10, 2022 by Ron Ron Ron

[Tim V]

Then why is the life of the battery in an electric car predicted at eight years?

[fezza]

They reckon the average petrol car produces 24 tons of CO2 during its life compared to about 18 electric. However around half of that is produced in the manufacturing and sale process before the car even turns a wheel. Therefore if petrol cars end up lasting twice as long as electric vehicles due to battery life, the CO2 savings won't be very great. At the moment we don't really know how long electric cars will last but eight years might be common - battery degradation will kill off a lot inside a decade.

 

My current 1971 MGB is much greener than the hypothetical 8 or 9 battery cars that would have had to be produced to replace it if it had been scrapped during its normal expected life cycle.

 

That's before you consider the lithium mining issue that makes a rapid global shift to electric very difficult.

 

As always, trains are the answer!

Edited February 10, 2022 by fezza

[Kylestrome]

Batteries can be replaced, battery technology is advancing and there will probably be an alternative to lithium one day. But of course, the future is really hydrogen ...

 

All of which has little to do with door-slamming neighbours.

Edited February 10, 2022 by Kylestrome

[Oldddudders]

5 minutes ago, Kylestrome said:

future is really hydrogen ...

 

All of which has little to do with door-slamming neighbours.

Oh, I don't know. Hydrogen has been involved with some of the loudest bangs man has achieved....

 

Now, about this nuclear fusion thingie. Does that change the green sums at all?

[Hroth]

2 minutes ago, Oldddudders said:

Oh, I don't know. Hydrogen has been involved with some of the loudest bangs man has achieved....

 

Now, about this nuclear fusion thingie. Does that change the green sums at all?

 

Only if they can get it to run 24/7 rather than 5 seconds at a time!

 

As I remember from O Level chemistry, Hydrogen announces itself with a "squeaky pop".....

[rocor]

Softly, softly, catchee thumb in self-closing door.

 

 

[Reorte]

3 minutes ago, Hroth said:

 

Only if they can get it to run 24/7 rather than 5 seconds at a time!

 

As I remember from O Level chemistry, Hydrogen announces itself with a "squeaky pop".....

The five seconds limit for the experiment in the news the other day was because that's how long the magnets could run without overheating. JET was designed as an experiment (the E is "experimental"), not to run for prolonged periods. If it used superconducting magnets (which do exist now but I'm not sure they did when JET was built, at least in any practical application) then it could've run for longer. But 5 seconds was long enough to suggest that the general approach is capable of sustaining a fusion reaction rather than a quick flash that'll die out.

[Reorte]

12 minutes ago, Oldddudders said:

Now, about this nuclear fusion thingie. Does that change the green sums at all?

Not in the immediate term. After stuttering around for decades there are meaningful resources being pushed towards it now and there's finally a stream of stories about progress on various parts, so real progress is definitely being made at last, but it'll still be a while.

[Hroth]

2 minutes ago, Reorte said:

The five seconds limit for the experiment in the news the other day was because that's how long the magnets could run without overheating. JET was designed as an experiment (the E is "experimental"), not to run for prolonged periods. If it used superconducting magnets (which do exist now but I'm not sure they did when JET was built, at least in any practical application) then it could've run for longer. But 5 seconds was long enough to suggest that the general approach is capable of sustaining a fusion reaction rather than a quick flash that'll die out.

 

Which is the main problem with fusion, maintaining the plasma containment without things going pearshaped. Plus the time that it has to run before it produces net energy gains.  Remember when Zeta was thought to be on the verge of progress?

 

[Ron Ron Ron]

3 hours ago, Tim V said:

Then why is the life of the battery in an electric car predicted at eight years?

No it isn’t.

The warranties for car batteries are typically 8 years, which covers them to 70% of chargeable capacity.

Most EV’s batteries will retain much higher capacity in practice and most EV’s will go on for many more years on the original batteries.

When the charge capacity reduces below 70%, it doesn’t mean the battery is dead or useless, because there will be a very long useful life left in it for other applications.

These things are expensive and retain a lot of value.

 

However, practical experience with EV car batteries, is showing that the battery degradation is much less than than early estimates.

Putting  aside early vehicles with their older technology and battery management, real world experience is already showing that on average, car batteries are going to give a normal useful life in a vehicle of between 200,000 and 500,000.

For comparison.

The average mileage at scrappage for an ICE powered car, has improved from around 106,000 miles 20 years ago, to around 120,000 miles today, although the much improved build quality and engineering of modern cars means that with correct maintenance and care of the vehicle, a modern ICE powered car should last for between 150,000 and 200,000 miles.

 

 

 

 

.

Edited February 10, 2022 by Ron Ron Ron

[Reorte]

33 minutes ago, Hroth said:

 

Which is the main problem with fusion, maintaining the plasma containment without things going pearshaped. Plus the time that it has to run before it produces net energy gains.  Remember when Zeta was thought to be on the verge of progress?

Exactly - and five seconds demonstrates that it is possible to maintain it without things going pearshaped. The solution to the reason JET couldn't go for longer already exists (superconducting magnets). Demonstrating that five seconds is possible is a very important step. Certainly not the final one, or anywhere near, but a very important one, because if five seconds is possible with the general approach then the probability that five minutes, five hours, five days is is that much higher.

[Ron Ron Ron]

JET is coming to the end of its life and further research work will be moving on to a bigger experimental system, being built in France.

 

Apart from sustaining the fusion process for more than 5 seconds, there is the major problem of trying to get more energy out of the reactor, than has to be put in to get it to work.

At the moment they can only get a tiny fraction of energy generated, compared with what has to be put in to make it work.

Even with the new machine, they don’t think they’ll achieve the “break even” point for decades ( if ever).

The optimists say that fusion power may be practical and could be in operation in the later half of this century. Other proponents estimate a later date.

 

[Reorte]

37 minutes ago, Ron Ron Ron said:

JET is coming to the end of its life and further research work will be moving on to a bigger experimental system, being built in France.

 

Apart from sustaining the fusion process for more than 5 seconds, there is the major problem of trying to get more energy out of the reactor, than has to be put in to get it to work.

At the moment they can only get a tiny fraction of energy generated, compared with what has to be put in to make it work.

Even with the new machine, they don’t think they’ll achieve the “break even” point for decades ( if ever).

The optimists say that fusion power may be practical and could be in operation in the later half of this century. Other proponents estimate a later date.

 

Yes, JET's coming to the end of its life, the experiments it's doing now and which have been in the news recently are testing for ITER. So far though to date JET, whilst not achieving breakeven, has done rather better than a tiny fraction (0.33 for the five seconds). The hopes for ITER are about 10 times out the energy that goes in, and whilst it's reasonable to expect that it might not reach that it would it seems overly pessimistic to think that it won't break even.

 

The significant uptick in progress on fusion is one of the few things I can think of to actually look forward to.

 

The record for actual return is 0.7 for a different (laser confinement) system, but for a tiny fraction of a second rather than a very macroscopic, human-observable 5.

Edited February 10, 2022 by Reorte

[stewartingram]

I remember a guy in the local village (Manea) who invented a new form of propulsion for vehicles. It was even shown on the local TV news.

Basically it was a horse. But not pulling. Think bicycle. Add hamster wheel. Quite noisy thinks that was the chains, and the hooves on the 'pedals'. I'd love to find the film of it that was on TV though.

[MarkC]

12 minutes ago, stewartingram said:

I remember a guy in the local village (Manea) who invented a new form of propulsion for vehicles. It was even shown on the local TV news.

Basically it was a horse. But not pulling. Think bicycle. Add hamster wheel. Quite noisy thinks that was the chains, and the hooves on the 'pedals'. I'd love to find the film of it that was on TV though.

Ahem...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cycloped

[St Enodoc]

18 hours ago, Ron Ron Ron said:

The optimists say that fusion power may be practical and could be in operation in the later half of this century.

They said that in the last century too.

[ejstubbs]

19 hours ago, Reorte said:

JET was designed as an experiment (the E is "experimental")

 

Ahem: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joint_European_Torus  The "European" bit is because it's a Euratom project.  The UK Is still an associate member of Euratom (as is Switzerland) despite no longer being an EU member state.  JET itself resides in Culham, Oxfordshire.

 

It's the "E" in ITER that stands for "Experimental": https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ITER.  The membership of that project goes far beyond the EU and its associated states.

Edited February 11, 2022 by ejstubbs

[woodenhead]

So our current neighbours are moving out today, wonder who will replace them - it's always a worry when things are all settled.

[ejstubbs]

19 hours ago, Ron Ron Ron said:

The average mileage at scrappage for an ICE powered car, has improved from around 106,000 miles 20 years ago, to around 120,000 miles today, although the much improved build quality and engineering of modern cars means that with correct maintenance and care of the vehicle, a modern ICE powered car should last for between 150,000 and 200,000 miles.

 

Volvo used a figure of 124,000 miles for their rather interesting comparison between the all-electric, petrol and hybrid versions of the XC40: https://www.autotrader.co.uk/content/news/petrol-or-electric-which-is-actually-greenest.  What's both interesting and useful (IMO) is the analysis of the break-even point between ICE and EV based on how the EV's electricity is generated:

 

Quote

Volvo has published three different figures, according to average global electricity supply, the projected ‘EU28’ (the EU, plus the UK) balance of regular and renewable sources and fully renewable energy. Over that 124,000-mile lifespan the fully electric C40’s carbon footprint is 15 per cent less than that of a petrol XC40 and the car needs to have covered 68,300 miles before the break-even point. By the EU28 measure that improves to nearly 30 per cent and 48,000 miles, while if you can charge your C40 purely on renewable energy its lifetime CO2 footprint is half that of the ICE XC40 and break-even comes at just over 30,000 miles.

 

Of course no-one is claiming that these figures are 100% correct, immutable and unarguable, but I've not seen before such a straightforward like-for-like ballpark comparison that takes into account the source of the electricity used for motive power as well as the energy involved in the vehicle's manufacture.

 

[Enterprisingwestern]

16 minutes ago, woodenhead said:

So our current neighbours are moving out today, wonder who will replace them - it's always a worry when things are all settled.

 

Hopefully for you, a family who doesn't own a Skoda Yeti.

 

Mike.

(Who, despite advancing senility, can still remember the first post!)

[stewartingram]

12 hours ago, MarkC said:

Ahem...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cycloped

That is the basic idea, but not quite the same. If I remember correctly, it was more like a huge hamster wheel, with a sloped upwards area that horse walked up (though stayed stationary). I'm surprised that local TV film (BBC East or Anglia) isn't around somewhere.

Edited February 11, 2022 by stewartingram

[Michael Hodgson]

14 hours ago, stewartingram said:

I remember a guy in the local village (Manea) who invented a new form of propulsion for vehicles.

 

If it wasn't powered by sugar beet, it wouldn't be much use in Manea.