Hornby cuts model shops' allocations of items due summer 2022

[Helmdon]

11 hours ago, adb968008 said:

 

 

imo, weve just gone through a change era ending moment, and a benchmark that future modellers will rally too..

 

End of steam 1960’s.. 1955-1968

pre-/post privatisation era 1990’s .. 1985-1995

and now

the end of the BR stock era..2017-2025

 

 

agree with most of what you wrote, but I suspect that you've missed the mark here slightly in terms of the future of steam. As alluded to a couple of posts before I don't think the fascination with 'end of steam' is going to dominate more than another decade at the most. If you're a younger modeller, and you want to model steam, why choose the sad bit at the end? I'm 41 and do model BR era steam, but the optimistic bit just after nationalisation and before the standards really got going (never mind Beeching).

 

I suspect that given the entire constituency (pretty much) shortly is going to be people with no first hand memories of mainline steam, we're going to see a bit of a free for all as the attractive designs and liveries start to be what sells. Pre-grouping I think will be a bigger niche than it is now, but remain a niche. I'm going to stick my neck out and say that in another couple of years it's all going to be about the late 1920s and early 1930s. Just a hunch. 

 

On your modern image groups, I agree entirely.

[The Stationmaster]

1 hour ago, Helmdon said:

 

agree with most of what you wrote, but I suspect that you've missed the mark here slightly in terms of the future of steam. As alluded to a couple of posts before I don't think the fascination with 'end of steam' is going to dominate more than another decade at the most. If you're a younger modeller, and you want to model steam, why choose the sad bit at the end? I'm 41 and do model BR era steam, but the optimistic bit just after nationalisation and before the standards really got going (never mind Beeching).

 

I suspect that given the entire constituency (pretty much) shortly is going to be people with no first hand memories of mainline steam, we're going to see a bit of a free for all as the attractive designs and liveries start to be what sells. Pre-grouping I think will be a bigger niche than it is now, but remain a niche. I'm going to stick my neck out and say that in another couple of years it's all going to be about the late 1920s and early 1930s. Just a hunch. 

 

On your modern image groups, I agree entirely.

I reckon if you took a straw poll of children below the age of 12-13 or so you wil find that they fall into three main groups -

1. Those who have never travelled on a train and, in many cases, have probably never even noticed one unless they live near a railway.

2. Those who travel to/from school by train (this will also extend further up the age scale of cours and almost invariably will  be travelling on some sort of multiple unit.

3. Those who have travelled behind a steam engine on a heritage/leisure railway and have possibly also visited a shop at that railways selling railway related items including models.

 

The $5 64,000 question is which of the two latter groups formed an enjoyable impression of railways which might encourage them towards.an interest in model railways and taking to them as a hobby?  But more importantly which one gave them a lasting impression of what a railway can be like?  I wonder which of those two groups is the larger?

 

If model railway interes devolves from interest or experience of the real thing the two most obvious markets are multiple units and older rolling stock hauled by steam or Modernisation Plan era diesels.  Some in the first group might see, and be impressed by freight trains which in turn means contemporary locos and wagons.   I suspect many of us retain our railway interest from what we saw in our formative years and I don't think that will change all that much in future.   And is there a hint there why models in Pre-Group liveries so popular - the only place they can be seen are on heritage/leisure railways and sites.

 

[Helmdon]

5 minutes ago, The Stationmaster said:

I reckon if you took a straw poll of children below the age of 12-13 or so you wil find that they fall into three main groups -

1. Those who have never travelled on a train and, in many cases, have probably never even noticed one unless they live near a railway.

2. Those who travel to/from school by train (this will also extend further up the age scale of cours and almost invariably will  be travelling on some sort of multiple unit.

3. Those who have travelled behind a steam engine on a heritage/leisure railway and have possibly also visited a shop at that railways selling railway related items including models.

 

The $5 64,000 question is which of the two latter groups formed an enjoyable impression of railways which might encourage them towards.an interest in model railways and taking to them as a hobby?  But more importantly which one gave them a lasting impression of what a railway can be like?  I wonder which of those two groups is the larger?

 

If model railway interes devolves from interest or experience of the real thing the two most obvious markets are multiple units and older rolling stock hauled by steam or Modernisation Plan era diesels.  Some in the first group might see, and be impressed by freight trains which in turn means contemporary locos and wagons.   I suspect many of us retain our railway interest from what we saw in our formative years and I don't think that will change all that much in future.   And is there a hint there why models in Pre-Group liveries so popular - the only place they can be seen are on heritage/leisure railways and sites.

 

agree with all of that - but (again, at 41) what I saw in my formative years was the preserved railways as envisaged by the original pioneers, many of whom remembered pre-grouping. Leander, etc, in LMS livery; Great Marquess in LNER and so on.

 

I think what I'm suggesting is that the generation reaching middle age and volunteering might be about to start repainting things on the preserved lines to what they remember as children, rather than the almost total capture of the last 20 years by the children of the 1960s.

 

Even at my relatively young age I can remember (I started volunteering as a ten year old on the SVR) elderly people expressing disgust when confronted with locos and stock in BR livery, they wanted to remember the good times of the Big Four. And a lot of their wallets were dictating both preservation and modelling at the time. 

 

So what I think with steam, my hunch as I say, is that it's going to be a bit of a free for all as the older generation leave us, but with a lot of shoots for the Big Four, both in preservation and modelling, because the children of the 80s grew up with a Big Four preservation scene in many cases. On the SVR the arrival of BR liveries on basically everything (or that's what it felt like) was a palpable tide from the mid-1990s. I do remember we were actually conscious of it happening at the time. 

[Helmdon]

I'm not against BR liveries at all - given my modelling interests I've basically got nothing else in OO!

[wombatofludham]

13 hours ago, adb968008 said:

For Diesel/Electric locos the horse has bolted, and theres nothing there now for Hornby, I don't doubt for one minute that another new tooled class 50 is coming from elsewhere, and wagons isn't leaving much space either… which means the future for Hornby maybe stuck in the past.

Very much my thinking.  The potential problem for Hornby is the wider socio-economic picture.  I'm approaching 60 and for me steam has always been a funfair ride, the real railway has been electric and diesel.  I want to model that - whilst I am designing a second layout on which to run LMS steam (as well as by invoking Rule 1 BR blue era and Irish Rail) my main interest is non-steam.  The bulk of active modellers I know are of my age cohort  likewise either model transition era or diesel.  My generation will probably be the last to enjoy final salary pensions, and the results of house price inflation, so will probably be the last ones to be in the position of enjoying a relatively comfortable retirement with some money to spend on model trains.  Based on my unscientific chatting to people attending the Dolgellau model exhibition, I suspect the big market for model railways is skewed to the recently retired empty-nesters looking for a new hobby to enjoy and revisiting their youth, both by coming back to railway modelling and in the subjects they choose.  During my unscientific straw polls, I've encountered a couple of youngsters who prefer steam, so steam interest will never die out, but the largest number seem to be more interested in more modern subjects, which really isn't that surprising.  In fact at our most recent openings, as an experiment, we've had some "what if" running for a few hours, using diesels typical of the Cambrian line between 1968 and 2008 and they have gone down a storm, much to my surprise. When you look at those firms bringing new diesel and electric items to market, almost all the smaller companies or new entrants are having to commit money they  have borrowed or otherwise raised, at some expense, to get the business going.  That they are committing large sums to D+E traction does rather suggest the market is shifting in emphasis and it is seen as a more safe bet when the company needs to establish cashflow.  The trend is there.

So Hornby needs to reject Mr Kohler's opinion that "steam is more charismatic" and get back into the D+E market which still has a lot of gaping holes it could plug before it becomes the niche supplier of trainsets and the odd pretty steamer for a vanishingly small niche market which it potentially could become in the not too distant future.

Accurascale, Cavalex, Heljan and Bachmann between them have invested several million into D+E models and we know (because they said so) that the Bachmann 47, north of a million investment, has been five years in the planning, with their new 37 probably in the same ball park.  How is it Bachmann and others saw this market emphasis change five years ago but Hornby seemingly didn't?  Personalities, perhaps?

[Dunsignalling]

1 hour ago, wombatofludham said:

Very much my thinking.  The potential problem for Hornby is the wider socio-economic picture.  I'm approaching 60 and for me steam has always been a funfair ride, the real railway has been electric and diesel.  I want to model that - whilst I am designing a second layout on which to run LMS steam (as well as by invoking Rule 1 BR blue era and Irish Rail) my main interest is non-steam.  The bulk of active modellers I know are of my age cohort  likewise either model transition era or diesel.  My generation will probably be the last to enjoy final salary pensions, and the results of house price inflation, so will probably be the last ones to be in the position of enjoying a relatively comfortable retirement with some money to spend on model trains.  Based on my unscientific chatting to people attending the Dolgellau model exhibition, I suspect the big market for model railways is skewed to the recently retired empty-nesters looking for a new hobby to enjoy and revisiting their youth, both by coming back to railway modelling and in the subjects they choose.  During my unscientific straw polls, I've encountered a couple of youngsters who prefer steam, so steam interest will never die out, but the largest number seem to be more interested in more modern subjects, which really isn't that surprising.  In fact at our most recent openings, as an experiment, we've had some "what if" running for a few hours, using diesels typical of the Cambrian line between 1968 and 2008 and they have gone down a storm, much to my surprise. When you look at those firms bringing new diesel and electric items to market, almost all the smaller companies or new entrants are having to commit money they  have borrowed or otherwise raised, at some expense, to get the business going.  That they are committing large sums to D+E traction does rather suggest the market is shifting in emphasis and it is seen as a more safe bet when the company needs to establish cashflow.  The trend is there.

So Hornby needs to reject Mr Kohler's opinion that "steam is more charismatic" and get back into the D+E market which still has a lot of gaping holes it could plug before it becomes the niche supplier of trainsets and the odd pretty steamer for a vanishingly small niche market which it potentially could become in the not too distant future.

Accurascale, Cavalex, Heljan and Bachmann between them have invested several million into D+E models and we know (because they said so) that the Bachmann 47, north of a million investment, has been five years in the planning, with their new 37 probably in the same ball park.  How is it Bachmann and others saw this market emphasis change five years ago but Hornby seemingly didn't?  Personalities, perhaps?

Hornby has effectively missed the boat where most older diesels and electrics are concerned (and quite a few newer ones).

 

Anything they announce now in D+E is likely to be too little, too late, so they might just as well continue to plough their steam furrow. There is still a sizeable demand for it to be satisfied, even though the overall market is becoming evenly spread across more eras.

 

Two of the competitors you mention have only very small patches of skin in that game, and one, none at all. Even Bachmann seems fairly luke-warm these days, showing great reluctance to do anything constructive with their steam outline back catalogue. 

 

That said, I consider the steam/diesel transition era will always have a disproportionately greater appeal than any other (roughly) ten-year spell in our railway history, simply because one doesn't have to choose one form of traction over any other, you can have them all, and mix things up quite considerably without needing to invoke Rule 1! 

 

As for returnees to the hobby in retirement; one I met at a recent show, who had been exposed to "modern" rail travel through most of his working life, wanted to get as far away from it as possible in model form! His first loco, a Hornby Princess Royal, and guess why....

 

John

 

Edited September 2, 2022 by Dunsignalling

[adb968008]

When it comes to younger enthusiasts they do it differently.

 

look at Francois Bourgeoise..  1.7mn followers

 

Admit how many on here are on instagram ?

 

Who would believe 2.9million people would watch him sing an ode to a class 455 ?

 

https://www.instagram.com/reel/Cdle-UAIpP0/?igshid=YmMyMTA2M2Y=

 

They are among us, they just arent as obvious in the newer generation.

 

but you only need 0.5% of his followers to have enough for a normal production run of a OO gauge model… 

 

And they do have money… this lot spent over £20k on class 455 railwayana extracted from withdrawn units, sold onboard the 455 that day….(and were asked to pay cash)…

 

i would also observe a good 50% werent your average middle age white male.. there was plenty of other backgrounds including Indian, African, Asian descent and several younger female groups and a large percentage were under 30…. One thing the internet has done well is bring together different groups without fear of the “nerd” tag of older generations..its become a more open inclusive hobby to younger groups.. look at the faces in the picture and the smiles as everyone is keenly loving it and its not the first day of the hobby.

 

To me, this is oppourtunity and this is the group to harness…

 

but if they want to buy a model of anything at all in Victoria station that day, there is only 1 choice : a 20 year old 2 car class 465 in a livery of Connex who no longer exists since 2003, or Belmond… yet some here defend that as “modern” and that market as “served”…

 

if I had 500 models of a 455 that day, I could have sold 1000 of them, yet the next “high risk” 3rd rail EMU model we are getting is a prototype 4DD that only ran 1 route, was one of 2 and no one under 60 will recall riding on the network..and probably in a few years we will see offered in noddy liveries to try to stretch the tooling a little further.

Edited September 2, 2022 by adb968008

[jonnyuk]

i agree to a point, but at current prices how many in that photo could afford a 455, lets assume on current prices its in the £300>£400 price range (maybe more)?

if its the younger demographic that's going to drive the hobby then the current trend with prices is going to have a massive impact. To bring this back to Hornby, maybe they need to start churning out even more D&E in RailRoad (even this is getting pricey) , tool up some basic modern DEMU/EMU's, you can start to see this with the amount of 66/67/31/37/47.

i'm 44 and count my self as having a little bit of disposal income every month but i've cancelled numerous items and the nice to have's no longer feature.  i can't imagine how the younger generation are going to fare, even the ones living at home that rely on mum and dad for spending money, that amount of spend will surely shrink as well.

 

Unless of course those in the model railway hobby generally are awash with money, but i highly highly doubt it.

[adb968008]

23 minutes ago, jonnyuk said:

i agree to a point, but at current prices how many in that photo could afford a 455, lets assume on current prices its in the £300>£400 price range (maybe more)?

i'm 44 and count my self as having a little bit of disposal income every month but i've cancelled numerous items and the nice to have's no longer feature. 

I agree, we are similar aged.

I also acknowledge the next 18 months of the UK is going to be bad.. but that isnt unique to under 30 year old modellers… thats going to affect us all… but its (hopefully) not a long term thing.

 

I too am cancelling back stuff, theres too much (more than 50 toolings of 1968-2000 era) coming out.. we in our middle / older age are being over indulged… which is exactly my point.

 

Back in the 90’s I was a wash with Lima locos, with 3x a month new releases… 

£60-90 a month was a stretch for my paper round money, but I did it…

 

Those today, have no Lima, when it comes to Clapham junction, as a 1980’s kid I had  33, 37, 45,47,50,56,59, 60, 73 in more than 100 possible options, plus mk1, mk2, 159 and kit bashed emus from mk1’s…

 

Today they have 59, 66,67, 70 an out of date SWT 450, 159 and soon an SWR 159… you dont need much cash to buy that lot.

 

But also look at the bigger picture, A good tooling lasts 20 years and will more than return itself over time… Railroad Hornby proves that.…. 
 

Who’s going to be buying 4DD in NSE liveries in 5 years time ? How many W1’s do you need ? An Electrostar would give dozens of liveries for 2 decades, straight off, and in 20 years they probably will end up, in the north and scotland too giving even more…

 

A 455 is but a tooling variation of a class 150, giving 455/7-9 and 314/5/8 as well…giving nearly 2 dozen livery options. Indeed i’m kit bashing these myself, plus also the Bratchells kit.

 

modern EMUs are very colourful, and have many less variations than the 750 versions of 512 class 47’s… Additionally there are many less classes in modern times to pick from, so saving is less an issue… your not picking 10 locos a month like we did with Lima in the 90’s…

but coming back to your point… if we in our age cant afford it, the elderly cannot afford, then who can ? If the answer isnt the younger ones either.. well then its the end.

 

Edited September 2, 2022 by adb968008

[CUCKOO LINE]

The challenge now is that liveries change so frequent that by the time you,ve launched one it has probably changed before they arrive in the shops! When I started many years ago you just had the pre BR , early BR, late BR steam and blue, now how many do you have ? 

[jjb1970]

A further complication is that unlike BR days we no longer have standard designs which appear across the network. Many modern designs have limited scope, and whereas at one time a generic Electrostar offered in multiple liveries would have been fine, nowadays people demand sub-class specific details.

The Hornby MO for contemporary trains doesn't seem to have changed for decades, they like the prestige express stuff. Their 43/HST, 395, 800/IEP and APT are very good. The new Class 91 looks superb but seems to have been let down by running issues.

[Dunsignalling]

In my own case, rising prices led me to review what I considered a "must have" in line with my modelling interests, and those models that would just be "nice to have".

 

I know from long experience that the latter get run for a month or two, then get consigned to the cupboard, sometimes via the display cabinet, often not. Two or three years down the road, I'll question why I bought it and flog it on or trade it in. All that's changed in recent times is that I'll have a better chance of recovering the original purchase price!

 

So, I have become much more disciplined over what I buy, but have also (without a making a conscious decision to do so) cut back on multiple purchases of versions of the models I do buy.  

 

Add in Hornby's recent heavy concentration on things I don't even consider "nice to have" and their share of the money I do spend has become a small fraction of my usual outlay when individual items were far less expensive. In the past two years, I've bought a 5101, two Terriers, and a Sentinel diesel; two brake vans, six coaches/vans that I really wanted and another five from a Hatton's clearance offer that I wouldn't have bought at normal prices. In cash terms, barely a quarter of what I would have put Hornby's way in one typical year not so long ago. I only have one Hornby loco currently on pre-order, and that's not being offered via dealers anyway. 

 

Over the same period, I've had enough left over from what I expected to spend on this hobby, to divert around £3,000 into another one....

 

My overall spend has clearly shrunk, though more from an indifference to most of what's been on offer than shortage of funds. I'm also finding it increasingly difficult to find room for new models and have begun thinning out unused stuff from the back of the cupboard!

 

Something that should really worry Hornby (IMHO) is that their share of my pre-orders now places them second-from-bottom on my personal league table of anticipated spending. Being the household name in model trains among the general population who don't buy them may still help Hornby define itself, but I fear they may be gradually slipping from the consciousness of we who do, at least in relative terms. 

 

Am I at all typical? For Hornby's sake, I hope not, but I doubt I'm anything like unique, either...

 

John

Edited September 3, 2022 by Dunsignalling

[Downer]

18 minutes ago, Dunsignalling said:

Am I at all typical? For Hornby's sake, I hope not, but I doubt I'm anything like unique, either...

 

Your experience sounds remarkably similar to mine.

[AY Mod]

23 minutes ago, Dunsignalling said:

Am I at all typical? For Hornby's sake, I hope not, but I doubt I'm anything like unique, either...

 

I wouldn't say I'm typical, I may even be illogical in that if a manufacturer produces an item I'd willingly have (as none of us really have a 'need') I will only buy the item if if I like the business and the people running it. So there are some companies where I just disregard their output and I'm on a long term Weatherspoons and Ryanair boycott. ;)

[durham light infantry]

21 minutes ago, AY Mod said:

 

I wouldn't say I'm typical, I may even be illogical in that if a manufacturer produces an item I'd willingly have (as none of us really have a 'need') I will only buy the item if if I like the business and the people running it. So there are some companies where I just disregard their output and I'm on a long term Weatherspoons and Ryanair boycott. ;)

 

Ditto with Warburtons and Ginsters...

[The Stationmaster]

I withdrew almost totally from 'nice to have' purchases some years ago as I could where I was taking myself in terms of diverted spending and storage spav ce.  I still doa bit of it but very little compared with the way it once was and often when I do buy a 'it would be handy and nice to have' I only go there because of the price.

 

I've only bought one Hornby item this year - it was in the category I've just mentioned and it was almost at a giveaway price compared with RRP.  My traction/rolling stock ordering has so far gone to Accurascale and Rapido - the only currently upcoming Hornby items which interest me are the 9F (why buy it, I've got a Bachmann representative of the class?) and the 78XXX - which is nearer to  'nice to have' than needed'.  

 

I would have gone for the W1 in BR condition for strong sentimental reasons (I travelled behind it and cabbed it) but part of it (the flangeless wheels at the back end), followed then by the way retailer's are being treated by Hornby, turned it from one of those rare 'nice to haves' into 'I'm not touching that with a bargepole'.  Loss of that sale 100% down to Hornby but it does mean I can spend more of my money with their competitors, i.e  folk who genuinely and obviously seem to have a far greater care about what they are producing and about. their retailers and end customers.

 

Incidentally coming to the comments about D&E locos the mainline diesels that appeal to me, in the right detail condition and livery, are the Swindon 'Warship', the  EE Type 3,  and the Brush Type 4.  Hornby have already dropped the ball as far as the last two are concerned and I doubt they'll ever pick it up for that 'Warship' (unless someone else announces it as being in the future programme 😇).

 

And in the end Hornby that is what it is about - every £ that I spend with your competitors is a £ that I will not be spending with you.  It's your bottom line - not mine

[Enterprisingwestern]

2 hours ago, AY Mod said:

I'm on a long term Weatherspoons and Ryanair boycott. ;)

 

Obviously not a Yorkshireman!

 

Mike.

Awaiting my next ryanair trip in a fortnight and a pint of Abbot in the Shrewsbury 'spoons!

[Dunsignalling]

On 02/09/2022 at 15:06, jonnyuk said:

 

Unless of course those in the model railway hobby generally are awash with money, but i highly highly doubt it.

Perhaps not generally, but a significant number of new players have been entering the industry, and not just in OO, with little sign that they fear their target customers might lack the ability to buy their products in the volumes they want/need to sell.

 

I would suggest, therefore, that a significant proportion of participants within the hobby might indeed be "awash with money" and that they aren't shy of spending it.

 

No business has ever consciously targeted either the skint or the tight....

 

Consider also the number of folk who have adopted DCC control, involving a sizeable additional outlay that is entirely optional. 

 

John

Edited September 4, 2022 by Dunsignalling
Tidying up final paragraph.

[eldomtom2]

On 02/09/2022 at 10:15, Helmdon said:

 

agree with most of what you wrote, but I suspect that you've missed the mark here slightly in terms of the future of steam. As alluded to a couple of posts before I don't think the fascination with 'end of steam' is going to dominate more than another decade at the most. If you're a younger modeller, and you want to model steam, why choose the sad bit at the end? I'm 41 and do model BR era steam, but the optimistic bit just after nationalisation and before the standards really got going (never mind Beeching).

 

I suspect that given the entire constituency (pretty much) shortly is going to be people with no first hand memories of mainline steam, we're going to see a bit of a free for all as the attractive designs and liveries start to be what sells. Pre-grouping I think will be a bigger niche than it is now, but remain a niche. I'm going to stick my neck out and say that in another couple of years it's all going to be about the late 1920s and early 1930s. Just a hunch. 

 

On your modern image groups, I agree entirely.

I note that these discussions always involve people speculating on what the youth are interested in...

[Les1952]

3 hours ago, eldomtom2 said:

I note that these discussions always involve people speculating on what the youth are interested in...

 

The only evidence I have is from the junior members of our club (oldest is now 19, youngest 14) , admittedly a small sample- but 80% of those run steam, 60% run at least one diesel, and none is really specialising in a particular time period, though 40% are looking quite seriously at pre-grouping.

 

Les

 

[andyman7]

On 02/09/2022 at 14:08, adb968008 said:

When it comes to younger enthusiasts they do it differently.

 

look at Francois Bourgeoise..  1.7mn followers

 

Admit how many on here are on instagram ?

 

Who would believe 2.9million people would watch him sing an ode to a class 455 ?

 

https://www.instagram.com/reel/Cdle-UAIpP0/?igshid=YmMyMTA2M2Y=

 

They are among us, they just arent as obvious in the newer generation.

 

but you only need 0.5% of his followers to have enough for a normal production run of a OO gauge model… 

 

And they do have money… this lot spent over £20k on class 455 railwayana extracted from withdrawn units, sold onboard the 455 that day….(and were asked to pay cash)…

 

i would also observe a good 50% werent your average middle age white male.. there was plenty of other backgrounds including Indian, African, Asian descent and several younger female groups and a large percentage were under 30…. One thing the internet has done well is bring together different groups without fear of the “nerd” tag of older generations..its become a more open inclusive hobby to younger groups.. look at the faces in the picture and the smiles as everyone is keenly loving it and its not the first day of the hobby.

 

To me, this is oppourtunity and this is the group to harness…

 

but if they want to buy a model of anything at all in Victoria station that day, there is only 1 choice : a 20 year old 2 car class 465 in a livery of Connex who no longer exists since 2003, or Belmond… yet some here defend that as “modern” and that market as “served”…

 

if I had 500 models of a 455 that day, I could have sold 1000 of them, yet the next “high risk” 3rd rail EMU model we are getting is a prototype 4DD that only ran 1 route, was one of 2 and no one under 60 will recall riding on the network..and probably in a few years we will see offered in noddy liveries to try to stretch the tooling a little further.

I would second this post 100% - my son (13) has passionately followed the run down of the Southern 455s and several times I went out with him - the age and diversity of people following them was the polar opposite of the stereotypical 60/70 year old white male and really emphasised that there is a youth following for trains.

He is into models and through judicious saving/chores has several modern models but without doubt any Electrostar or Mk3/PEP derived EMU would be top choice. However, there is either nothing or kits that are pricey and/or need advanced modelling skills - any manufacturer that can navigate their way to market in this area would I think expand the field of interest for models.

[rob D2]

You may be right about the demographic , but how many were there to see Instagram hit Francis bourgeois and how many were there to see the unit I wonder ?

 

[wombatofludham]

13 hours ago, AY Mod said:

 

 and I'm on a long term Weatherspoons and Ryanair boycott. ;)

I last went to your nearest 'spoons to watch Star Wars when it came to town, which given the old flea pit usually only showed those grubby semi-porn films so beloved of British cinema in the 70s, was a massive thing.  

I too wouldn't dream of going anywhere near one of the establishments either.  

[jjb1970]

As with any other business, what matters is whether you have prospective customers willing and able to buy your product, regardless of what is happening in the wider world. The only long term problem with that is that you can enter a trend whereby the market shrinks in size and adjusts to serve an ever smaller number of well heeled people at the top end. I am an enthusiast of HO brass models, at one time US brass was part of the mainstream. PFM had catalogues and runs were in hundreds. Now that part of the hobby is all but dead for new production and what there is struggles to break single figures (I say that literally, production runs ended up with crazily low figures). In that case it was the vast improvement in RTR plastic that killed brass, and for running as opposed to display brass was not a great choice. An alternative outcome is high end hi-fi. Many hi-fi companies still do well selling low volumes of absurdly priced equipment to the extremely wealthy (or regular people willing to find a years salary for an amplifier or turnable etc). In rational terms that hobby is almost irrelevant as good sound quality was commoditised many years ago but for now at least it has managed to survive as a sort of aspirational symbol for the well heeled.

On young people, they are like people of any age in that the only ones who can truly comment on their opinions are the individuals themselves. However, manufacturers look at demand and trends and if they know what they are doing they will produce what they think will sell. My son used to like model trains but now at 15 it is computer games, ice hockey, basketball and music. Funnily, he was a perfect Hornby customer as he liked steam engines and modern fast trains. Maybe he will be one of those who returns to the hobby later, maybe.

Edited September 4, 2022 by jjb1970

[adb968008]

14 hours ago, rob D2 said:

You may be right about the demographic , but how many were there to see Instagram hit Francis bourgeois and how many were there to see the unit I wonder ?

 

If you look at the picture previous, you will spot him in it, (left side by the pillar), everyone is looking at the unit. 

until that day i’d never heard of him, though after meeting him I came across him a few times on various 455 services right upto the last ever service last saturday night, as side of on the railtour I didnt see him with anything other than a few friends… seems a genuine normal guy / enthusiast, stayed the course later than most that night.

Edited September 4, 2022 by adb968008