Hornby cuts model shops' allocations of items due summer 2022

[ruggedpeak]

2 hours ago, Dunsignalling said:

Many are already finding it impossible (or domestically indefensible) to fund new acquisitions in the quantities to which we have become accustomed / addicted. 

 

Some might consider that no bad thing, in that it would necessitate more "real modelling", but it would be highly disruptive for both trade and consumers alike.

Don't disagree but new entrants are able to deliver even more detailed locomotives at sensible prices whilst offshoring. £160 for a Deltic v. well over £200 for a new version of the 47. Maybe we are just seeing a changing of the guard rather than a wholesale disruption?

 

Real modelling is no bad thing, and I wonder if margins are like another factory produced commodity, the motor car. Margins on new cars have been negligible for a long time, dealers make money on servicing, spares, trade ins, finance deals and everything except actually selling a new car for cash! The ideal dealership is one selling a premium brand that is unreliable (not mentioning any car brands to which this might apply......).

 

With 'real modelling' one hopes model shops' margins will improve as they need to hold less expensive low margin high risk stock (i.e. new locos) and sell more other stuff that has better margins and turnover.

Edited September 22, 2022 by ruggedpeak
typo

[MidlandRed]

Far be it from me to say, but should this thread not be renamed (Mods) - it’s had little to do with the ire of people on behalf of some retailers (certainly not all as it appears plenty are getting stocks of Hornby’s new releases) for quite a while meandering into a general discussion about model railway manufacturing or even conjecture and speculation on various publicly available financial info and other published company based data - interesting though all that is.

 

Summer 2022 is now gone it seems people (after a prolonged period) have got over their Hornby ranting on behalf of unnamed retailers. 
 

Perhaps we should have one thread called ‘Hornby assorted moans and gripes’ and other more general ones for off shore v U.K. manufacturing?

 

Just a thought - anyway the main point is the thread title is now completely wrong based on the discussion within and has been for some time!! 

[Dunsignalling]

2 hours ago, ruggedpeak said:

Don't disagree but but new entrants are able to deliver even more detailed locomotives at sensible prices whilst offshoring. £160 for a Deltic v. well over £200 for a new version of the 47. Maybe we are just seeing a changing of the guard rather than a wholesale disruption?

 

Real modelling is no bad thing, and I wonder if margins are like another factory produced commodity, the motor car. Margins on new cars have been negligible for a long time, dealers make money on servicing, spares, trade ins, finance deals and everything except actually selling a new car for cash! The ideal dealership is one selling a premium brand that is unreliable (not mentioning any car brands to which this might apply......).

 

With 'real modelling' one hopes model shops' margins will improve as they need to hold less expensive low margin high risk stock (i.e. new locos) and sell more other stuff that has better margins and turnover.

Your point about the new entrants is telling.

 

They can do that largely because they don't have to carry top-heavy corporate structures like Hornby's or Bachmann's (different, but equally problematic).

 

The medium-to-long-term threat to both is not competition as such, but rather not adjusting their own business models to meet it at something approaching level pricing. Or, worse, being unable to.

 

Success in the model railway business depends at least as much on what you make as what you charge for it. Make Southern stuff and I mainly buy it, make LNER and I mainly don't, though that kind of thing averages out across the market. However, as the "new boys" grow in strength and broaden their product ranges, both the blue and red teams may, without change, be doomed to gradually declining market shares.  

Edited September 22, 2022 by Dunsignalling

[The Stationmaster]

15 hours ago, Dunsignalling said:

So, possibly even truck and ferry/Eurotunnel from a mainland European port rather than coming off the ship in the UK?

 

John

Various mainland European ports have container 'feeder services' to/from UK ports and these seem to convey traffic in both directions (some of course might be empty boxes etc).

[The Stationmaster]

4 hours ago, Dunsignalling said:

The crux of the matter is that most model railway production was offshored in order to obtain greater detail for less money. In that it proved very successful and rapidly changed our expectations, both of quality and quantity. Many who might formerly have accumulated a couple of dozen locomotives over a modelling lifetime, now find themselves with more models than they really know what to do with.

 

Peco is not a good inspiration to pick, as they mainly produce large-ish quantities of items with few production stages. The same applied to Dapol while they limited themselves to 1970s specification wagons. They have moved toward greater detail and expanded into O Gauge, with some increase in UK production, but most of their more complex (i.e., labour-intensive) stuff comes from China. 

 

John

Yes, well.  Peco's new bullhead pointwork, particularly the slips, is far more labour intensive than much of their earlier range of pointwork.  This - I understand - is one reason why they have extended their production facility.  I realise that one swallow does not make a summer.

 

Overall I doubt we will ever see much more in model railway manufacture return to British shores.  Labour costs are too high and many industries already have difficulty recruiting notwithstanding the millions of working age who opt to remain 'economically inactive'

[Dunsignalling]

6 minutes ago, The Stationmaster said:

Yes, well.  Peco's new bullhead pointwork, particularly the slips, is far more labour intensive than much of their earlier range of pointwork.  This - I understand - is one reason why they have extended their production facility.  I realise that one swallow does not make a summer.

 

Overall I doubt we will ever see much more in model railway manufacture return to British shores.  Labour costs are too high and many industries already have difficulty recruiting notwithstanding the millions of working age who opt to remain 'economically inactive'

Though there is a differential between the prices of the bullhead points and their FB counterparts that presumably reflects the extra work involved.

 

It's probably significant that Peco has never shown any inclination to get involved with r-t-r locos or stock in OO, even back when UK production was the norm. 

 

John

[MidlandRed]

V interesting but absolutely s*d all to do with the thread title of course. 
 

One gets the impression that some people are in the business of prolonging a negative Hornby thread (surely not…… heaven forbid) to outweigh the positive (or negative ones) about actual Hornby models. 
 

All the more bizarre when the mods saw fit to lock a similar Hattons thread after about five posts (although someone did go off the deep end at one point)!! 
 

Perhaps the off shore v U.K. manufacturing discussion should continue in the Accurascale thread 🤣 where it would be equally relevant. 

[SHMD]

I think the discussion about UK manufacture "in house", as it were, is to make the point that such manufacturers would be in (more) control of their "own" production slots to allow better/faster matching of produce to demand.

 

I also think the point about producing "simple" one-piece mouldings here (very little human contact) is a very good one.

 

 

Kev.

 

[jjb1970]

Something to keep in mind about Bachmann Europe is they are just a subsidiary of a much larger Chinese company which will presumably maintain an interest in OO for as long as it is worth their while. And that's not a criticism, personally I have zero issue with the Chinese making models for the UK market only if they can make a profit from doing so.

This may be obvious but every company has its own cost base, management culture, capabilities, expected and minimum return on investment to develop products etc. There are very few genuinely fixed costs in business, though many costs accepted because the effort of changing them is considered too much trouble. So the fact that company A sells a model for £160 and company B sells a similar model for £200 could be for any number of reasons. Company A might just be much better at running their business, might be happy with lower returns, might be pricing aggressively to establish themselves in the market or any number of other reasons. And really it doesn't matter, it comes down to whether you as an individual think a model offers value.

[Phil Parker]

1 hour ago, MidlandRed said:

V interesting but absolutely s*d all to do with the thread title of course. 
 

One gets the impression that some people are in the business of prolonging a negative Hornby thread (surely not…… heaven forbid) to outweigh the positive (or negative ones) about actual Hornby models. 
 

All the more bizarre when the mods saw fit to lock a similar Hattons thread after about five posts (although someone did go off the deep end at one point)!! 
 

Perhaps the off shore v U.K. manufacturing discussion should continue in the Accurascale thread 🤣 where it would be equally relevant. 

 

Aside from the tedious mod-baiting, this is a valid point. Please get back on topic. If someone wants to set up a thread about moving manufacture back to the UK, go ahead. We can probably pre-populate it with the same arguments that always come up too...

[woodenhead]

49 minutes ago, Phil Parker said:

 

Aside from the tedious mod-baiting, this is a valid point. Please get back on topic. If someone wants to set up a thread about moving manufacture back to the UK, go ahead. We can probably pre-populate it with the same arguments that always come up too...

Should probably save that for pantomime season - "UK production is cheaper!"....."oh no it isn't"......"oh yes it is"......"oh no it isn't" etc etc etc

[MidlandRed]

1 hour ago, Phil Parker said:

 

Aside from the tedious mod-baiting, this is a valid point. Please get back on topic. If someone wants to set up a thread about moving manufacture back to the UK, go ahead. We can probably pre-populate it with the same arguments that always come up too...

Sorry - wasn’t intended to be ‘mod baiting’ - just frustrated with the OT and bumping of a thread talked out weeks ago. 

[The Stationmaster]

18 hours ago, MidlandRed said:

Sorry - wasn’t intended to be ‘mod baiting’ - just frustrated with the OT and bumping of a thread talked out weeks ago. 

So why bother to read it all?   One of my recent posts in this thread included a mention of something which is bang on topic (there were other bits obviously) but nobody took it up.  Threads wander and I doubt it has anything to do with 'Hornby baiting' or anything else - sometimes the Mods kick us back into line and sometimes they don't.  That's all part of the way RMweb works, and has worked for a long time.

 

So back to the thread title.  If Hornby - as they are doing (see my previous quote) - talk about an excellent order book what does that mean in reality when it comes down to shops not receiving the good which they ordered?  Hornby, in most cases so I understand, order their runs of railway models (and probably other brands) before they start selling them to retailers and the wider market.  Therefore they know how many they will be getting which means they know how many they have to sell (probably with an allowance for faulty returns at a rate they will have established from past experience).   So why do they finish up not supplying to retailers, including Tier 1 retailers, what they have ordered?   There is plainly some sort of managerial/procedural issue within the company;  so what are they doing about it?

[Dunsignalling]

12 minutes ago, The Stationmaster said:

So why bother to read it all?   One of my recent posts in this thread included a mention of something which is bang on topic (there were other bits obviously) but nobody took it up.  Threads wander and I doubt it has anything to do with 'Hornby baiting' or anything else - sometimes the Mods kick us back into line and sometimes they don't.  That's all part of the way RMweb works, and has worked for a long time.

 

So back to the thread title.  If Hornby - as they are doing (see my previous quote) - talk about an excellent order book what does that mean in reality when it comes down to shops not receiving the good which they ordered?  Hornby, in most cases so I understand, order their runs of railway models (and probably other brands) before they start selling them to retailers and the wider market.  Therefore they know how many they will be getting which means they know how many they have to sell (probably with an allowance for faulty returns at a rate they will have established from past experience).   So why do they finish up not supplying to retailers, including Tier 1 retailers, what they have ordered?   There is plainly some sort of managerial/procedural issue within the company;  so what are they doing about it?

 

Agreed. If (say) 2,000 of a particular item are being produced, and dealers order more than that, Hornby will be able to calculate any excess of orders over projected supply as soon as the dealer ordering deadline has passed.

 

That is surely the time when any decisions and advice to dealers regarding "allocations" can and should be made.

 

I hesitate to infer ulterior motives for delays in doing so, but if dealers were advised in (say) February/March, the value of any orders that Hornby weren't going to fulfil, they would know how much cash allocated for paying Hornby had become available for obtaining additional goods elsewhere. 

 

If they are only told in (say) July, other producers are likely to have closed their order books for the season. 😇

 

John

 

  

[MidlandRed]

@The Stationmaster @Dunsignalling the points you’re making have been made umpteen times in this thread since July, and I’ve certainly heard @The Stationmaster refer to his theory of management and organisational troubles before - countless possible other reasons exist, of course. As have innumerable other permutations of conjecture on the reasoning for Hornby’s actions regarding this, which have been posted over the last 10 weeks. Conjecture it is, and there comes a point where perpetuating the same arguments ad infinitum is akin to p***ing into the wind 😆
 

Fact is it’s happened (but how widespread we don’t know - we can presume @The Stationmaster’s favourite retailer and one in the north west of England may have been affected) - but those seeking out or buying the highly popular upgraded, and excellent 😀Hornby 9Fs in the last week or two seem to have found plenty of retailers with them (even Sam of Sam’s Trains found one at a reduced price from Hornby’s own). I bought mine direct (and I guess they have lots of direct pre-orders). 
 

I think we need to get over this and hope Hornby resolve (or have resolved) the issue - in the way they have many other issues such as packaging for on line sales, in the case of the new 9F. They certainly gave the impression to someone earlier in this thread they were addressing this matter and if the other improvements are anything to go by, I would have thought we will see an improvement. 
 

Like it or not, we’re never going to get away from the fact that Hornby, like most other manufacturers are gradually moving to direct on line sales to one degree or another (which maximises revenue and income) and that Hornby see also certain major retailers to an extent as competitors. 

[Dunsignalling]

We are repeatedly told, by contributors who should know, that factories do not arbitrarily reduce batch sizes. So, was it just down to somebody cocking up their maths or a policy decision? It has to be one or the other.

 

For any given item,

1. Hornby know how many are contracted to be made.
2. Dealers have to place their orders to a deadline.
3. Hornby know (or should) how many they want to hold back to sell direct.

All that information should be at Hornby's fingertips within days (if not hours) of the dealer deadline passing.  Simple arithmetic, and everybody should know exactly where they stand by the end of March.

1. If the production quantity changed (it shouldn't) why not say so?
2. Dealers can't increase their orders without Hornby's agreement.
3. Is entirely under Hornby's control, should they wish to vary it and cut back dealer supplies.

It's pretty logical that Hornby might want to shift to 100% direct sales in the fullness of time and I have no objection to that so long as the steps toward it are taken honestly and openly. Not concealed to keep dealers sweet until the rug is eventually pulled from under them and avoid widespread desertions to Hornby's increasingly numerous competitors prior to that. Or, indeed, to lead more to conclude that direct sourcing from China might be better for them, too... 

 

The only logical explanation, if one rules out staff innumeracy, is that someone with sufficient clout within Hornby decided to increase the number retained for direct sales after all else had seemingly been settled. 

 

I've been buying Hornby products since the boxes were labelled "Tri-ang", all bar one or two with great satisfaction. 

 

2022 has been a slow year for me where Hornby is concerned. I've only wanted a couple of small locos and a handful of coaches (the latter outstanding from 2021) and was not affected by the "incident" in any way. I eagerly await the unveiling of their plans for 2023 and beyond. 

 

I therefore have no "axe to grind" on my own behalf or any dealer. I just want to know that steps have been taken to avoid a repeat performance, irrespective of whether it resulted from cock-up or conspiracy.

 

If I will only be able to acquire something I want direct, I want to know that before I waste a dealer's time placing an order that may be randomly voided.

 

John

Edited September 23, 2022 by Dunsignalling

[The Stationmaster]

20 hours ago, MidlandRed said:

@The Stationmaster @Dunsignalling the points you’re making have been made umpteen times in this thread since July, and I’ve certainly heard @The Stationmaster refer to his theory of management and organisational troubles before - countless possible other reasons exist, of course. As have innumerable other permutations of conjecture on the reasoning for Hornby’s actions regarding this, which have been posted over the last 10 weeks. Conjecture it is, and there comes a point where perpetuating the same arguments ad infinitum is akin to p***ing into the wind 😆
 

Fact is it’s happened (but how widespread we don’t know - we can presume @The Stationmaster’s favourite retailer and one in the north west of England may have been affected) - but those seeking out or buying the highly popular upgraded, and excellent 😀Hornby 9Fs in the last week or two seem to have found plenty of retailers with them (even Sam of Sam’s Trains found one at a reduced price from Hornby’s own). I bought mine direct (and I guess they have lots of direct pre-orders). 
 

I think we need to get over this and hope Hornby resolve (or have resolved) the issue - in the way they have many other issues such as packaging for on line sales, in the case of the new 9F. They certainly gave the impression to someone earlier in this thread they were addressing this matter and if the other improvements are anything to go by, I would have thought we will see an improvement. 
 

Like it or not, we’re never going to get away from the fact that Hornby, like most other manufacturers are gradually moving to direct on line sales to one degree or another (which maximises revenue and income) and that Hornby see also certain major retailers to an extent as competitors. 

Perhaps if you spent a bit more time thanking people for information when you have asked for it you wouldn't be so bothered with this thread?

 

Yes I've mentioned it before but we do have a new angle and still the same thing applies.  Hornby have had a couple of years to resolve this issue and they this year it seems to be worse than ever with the lame excuse about a new member of staff 'who has since left the company' which in fact compounds apparent managerial problems by also drawing attention to lack of training.  If a company consistently get things wrong - in this case by taking orders for goods they subsequently cannot supply - that is very obviously a managerial/procedural issue.   And managerial/procedural issues can, in my experience, be resolved although some take longer than others to sort  and several years to sort this one means it should not be allowed to slip from attention.

 

PS Don't bother to report this post - I've done it already

[MidlandRed]

6 hours ago, The Stationmaster said:

Perhaps if you spent a bit more time thanking people for information when you have asked for it you wouldn't be so bothered with this thread?

My sincere apologies - I thought I already had but was mistaken - no offence meant. I am, of course, v appreciative of the information you provide, as always, and have said so before on threads - let us hope that Messrs Accurascale come up with what several people have asked for 😀 and Hornby make things a little clearer with their allocation process in due course. 
 

I have outstanding orders with Hornby (direct), Accurascale (direct), Rapido (Retailer), SLW (direct), Hattons (Heljan) - I think that’s all…..I’m hopeful they’re all going to perform as magnificently as Hornby has with my direct sales 9F 🤗 though Hattons has just increased the price ‘following a misunderstanding’….. it seems retailers aren’t infallible as well!! 

Edited September 24, 2022 by MidlandRed

[newbryford]

On 23/09/2022 at 17:51, Dunsignalling said:

We are repeatedly told, by contributors who should know, that factories do not arbitrarily reduce batch sizes. So, was it just down to somebody cocking up their maths or a policy decision? It has to be one or the other.

 

 

There's always the possibility that a manufacturing error has reduced the number available, but discovered too late in the process to  increase the batch to cover the faulty items.

 

Wow! That almost sounds like me making excuses for Hornby.................

[andyman7]

On 22/09/2022 at 01:03, john new said:

Is it approaching the cusp period when the increasing difficulties of managing production and then importing goods from so far away outweigh the advantages that originally led to the perceived  and genuine advantages of exporting the manufacturing processes? Dapol have recently heavily re-invested in UK manufacture for some of their lines  (recent BRM edition confirms) as have PECO just down the coast from where I live.

 

There we’re several, valid, economic and manufacturing quality reasons for shifting production in many industries across the board out of UK to either EU (pre-BREXIT) or to far-eastern based production centres but how many of those original reasons now still, truly, apply?

 

On 22/09/2022 at 07:49, Dunsignalling said:

The crux of the matter is that most model railway production was offshored in order to obtain greater detail for less money. In that it proved very successful and rapidly changed our expectations, both of quality and quantity. Many who might formerly have accumulated a couple of dozen locomotives over a modelling lifetime, now find themselves with more models than they really know what to do with.

 

There's no physical reason why Hornby et al couldn't manufacture in the UK, but cost to us, as end-users, would dwarf the recent widespread rises in levels. Many are already finding it impossible (or domestically indefensible) to fund new acquisitions in the quantities to which we have become accustomed / addicted. 

 

On 22/09/2022 at 14:10, SHMD said:

I think the discussion about UK manufacture "in house", as it were, is to make the point that such manufacturers would be in (more) control of their "own" production slots to allow better/faster matching of produce to demand.

 

As far as locos are concerned, the idea that making them here would (even if viable from a practical point of view) solve the supply issues is for the birds. The last time Hornby made locos in Margate, the sole electronic component in them was a capacitor. Nowaways, everyone wants DCC, lights, bells, whistles - and guess where those components come from? Guess also what is in short supply? So you would end up with a UK factory sitting on thousands of half complete models, waiting for the decoders and PCBs,

It's a much wider issue than just toy trains, but the total shift in the past three decades to a global supply chain reliant on the far east is so embedded that changing it will be the task of many years if it happens. 

[SHMD]

8 hours ago, andyman7 said:

 

 

As far as locos are concerned, the idea that making them here would (even if viable from a practical point of view) solve the supply issues is for the birds. The last time Hornby made locos in Margate, the sole electronic component in them was a capacitor. Nowaways, everyone wants DCC, lights, bells, whistles - and guess where those components come from? Guess also what is in short supply? So you would end up with a UK factory sitting on thousands of half complete models, waiting for the decoders and PCBs,

It's a much wider issue than just toy trains, but the total shift in the past three decades to a global supply chain reliant on the far east is so embedded that changing it will be the task of many years if it happens. 

 

Regarding PCB assemblies...

 

It doesn't matter where the roof is that you insert the electronic components into the PCB for soldering because, as you say, it is a global supply chain and the PCB assembly sub-contractors in the far-east are suffering just the same shortages as the PCB assembly sub-contractors here.

 

It's the man-power costs that are the issue here, not (the very real) component supply problems.

 

 

Kev.

 

[ruggedpeak]

9 hours ago, newbryford said:

 

There's always the possibility that a manufacturing error has reduced the number available, but discovered too late in the process to  increase the batch to cover the faulty items.

 

Wow! That almost sounds like me making excuses for Hornby.................

Chinese manufacturers are renowned for arbitrarily changing things, including the recipes of products and other things, it is an accepted fact of life in using them as once orders are placed and commitments made the factories have the upper hand. No idea in the world of model making but in the consumer product world what turns up in the container may be somewhat different from the agreed spec.

[McC]

10 hours ago, ruggedpeak said:

Chinese manufacturers are renowned for arbitrarily changing things, including the recipes of products and other things, it is an accepted fact of life in using them as once orders are placed and commitments made the factories have the upper hand. No idea in the world of model making but in the consumer product world what turns up in the container may be somewhat different from the agreed spec.

In the model making world what gets put into the container is exactly what has been specified. 

[Graham_Muz]

13 minutes ago, McC said:

In the model making world what gets put into the container is exactly what has been specified. 

Couldn't agree more... 

 

 

...although don't dare call the myth that the / our factories in China under deliver 'nonsense' ...

Edited September 26, 2022 by Graham_Muz

[phil-b259]

25 minutes ago, McC said:

In the model making world what gets put into the container is exactly what has been specified. 

 

Thats as may be - but its a fact that there have been problems in the past with things like steel rebar not being made to the correct spec (which could affect the structural integrity of what it gets used in) or toys turning up with traces of lead in the paint.

 

https://www.constructionenquirer.com/2014/08/13/chinese-rebar-fails-british-standards-tests/

https://www.theconstructionindex.co.uk/news/view/steel-producers-warn-on-chinese-rebar

 

https://eeb.org/flood-of-toxic-chinese-toys-threatens-childrens-health/

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/china/8944028/One-third-of-Chinese-toys-contain-heavy-metals.html

 

In both cases I doubt the importers or commissionaire of the product asked for illegal / unsafe / substandard products.

 

Just because Model railway products have not suffered problems so far should not blind us to the potential for things to go wrong.

 

 

Edited September 26, 2022 by phil-b259