Hornby cuts model shops' allocations of items due summer 2022

[john new]

21 hours ago, Les1952 said:

 

The only evidence I have is from the junior members of our club (oldest is now 19, youngest 14) , admittedly a small sample- but 80% of those run steam, 60% run at least one diesel, and none is really specialising in a particular time period, though 40% are looking quite seriously at pre-grouping.

 

Les

 

Out and about at Carlisle recently on a non-steam special day.* There were a few filming/photographing the trains, all younger than my 70 years and at least one pairing I guessed as young teens. The rail enthusiast group may be shrinking but it is still drawing in youngsters even if at a lower rate than the inevitable drop off in numbers from the baby-boomer generation.

 

Of my grown up children (2 x daughters) one has an interest but no space for a layout the other not; of my grandchildren (four) one is very keen, his brother is less so but is still interested.

 

* in the school holidays.

 

Edited September 4, 2022 by john new
Typo and extra point added.

[Dunsignalling]

I think it's easy for we retirees, who are able to observe railway operations whenever the fancy takes us, to forget that most younger people will be in education or at work from Monday to Friday. 

 

A lazy assumption that younger enthusiasts only exist in tiny numbers is equally easily drawn.

 

John

[adb968008]

2 hours ago, Dunsignalling said:

I think it's easy for we retirees, who are able to observe railway operations whenever the fancy takes us, to forget that most younger people will be in education or at work from Monday to Friday. 

 

A lazy assumption that younger enthusiasts only exist in tiny numbers is equally easily drawn.

 

John

Its also what draws interest… 

 

455812, seen below, attracted a bit of a following one night in 2012.. even had musicians playing on the platform at 2315 !.. a good hundred people showed up for its little piece of history…

but it was all youngsters (who are probably all in their late 20’s now).

Any guesses the reason ?

Edited September 4, 2022 by adb968008

[newbryford]

On 03/09/2022 at 13:47, Enterprisingwestern said:

 

Obviously not a Yorkshireman!

 

Mike.

Awaiting my next ryanair trip in a fortnight and a pint of Abbot in the Shrewsbury 'spoons!

 

I  thought you'd fly Yorkshire Airlines..

 

[rob D2]

I’m glad there’s some younger enthusiasts, but , holy cow , it’s a tall order getting excited about a class 455 !

And I say that from someone of the 121/117 era and I couldn’t get excited about those 

[adb968008]

34 minutes ago, rob D2 said:

I’m glad there’s some younger enthusiasts, but , holy cow , it’s a tall order getting excited about a class 455 !

And I say that from someone of the 121/117 era and I couldn’t get excited about those 

I compare it to the withdrawal of Mersey rail class 502/3… they brought out a crowd in the early 1980’s… then the class 504’s brought out a considerable crowd in 1991. The 304s had a bit of a passing too, and recall the 309’s were popular.

 

more recently theres been a but of an outpouring on 442’s but they didnt get a send off. Earlier than that the 2Bil definitely had a following.

 

Units do have a following, the last night of the 456’s saw a considerable show of fans too… of course we arent done with the 455’s yet (SWR) and 313’s are getting a bit of attention on the south coast.

Edited September 4, 2022 by adb968008

[Oldddudders]

I welcome younger enthusiasts, of course, but note a distinct difference from when I was growing up - we loved the new and shiny! What was the highest number Crompton or Warship we had each seen? While one regretted the loss of the Cor-Buf-Cor formations on the Mid-Sussex fasts in 1964, the replacement CEP-BEP-CEP trains were much to be admired. Some way from my Surrey home, the completion of electrification in the South Eastern Division (where 20 years later I was Divisional Operating Assistant), and the spread of OHLE from Manchester towards London were great things to read about. And all those shiny red Routemasters in London....

[Dunsignalling]

1 hour ago, Oldddudders said:

I welcome younger enthusiasts, of course, but note a distinct difference from when I was growing up - we loved the new and shiny! What was the highest number Crompton or Warship we had each seen? While one regretted the loss of the Cor-Buf-Cor formations on the Mid-Sussex fasts in 1964, the replacement CEP-BEP-CEP trains were much to be admired. Some way from my Surrey home, the completion of electrification in the South Eastern Division (where 20 years later I was Divisional Operating Assistant), and the spread of OHLE from Manchester towards London were great things to read about. And all those shiny red Routemasters in London....

I think the link between younger enthusiasts and the "new and shiny" was probably broken during the extended period when there were only very isolated pockets of anything that was either new or shiny on our railways.

 

The HST was a brilliant exception but most of the units contemporary with it were 150s or electrics that looked like 150s but had more coaches. All very capable, but somewhat utilitarian. The only thing apart from the 125s that impressed in the mid-1970s, was the Class 156, which struck me as a true quality product for its intended purpose. Time has (IMHO) generously confirmed my opinion. On holiday in Cumbria last year I was pleasantly amazed how good they still are. 

 

Then came the Pacers....No doubt shiny when they were new but, in many eyes, a sign of BR admitting defeat. Hardly any wonder that "gricing" and "bashing" classes of time-worn locomotives that were on the way out became the norm.

 

Despite the fact that there is currently more "new and shiny" about than ever before, that doesn't seem to be inspiring  much of a following. A perceived lack of individuality arising from most being derived from other nations' trains perhaps?

 

The way things were when most of us were ceasing to travel behind locomotives (and steam locomotives a generation earlier) has, I think, more resonance with current, younger railfans. Suddenly, the 150 look-alikes are receiving some kudos....

 

It'll be interesting to see how things develop as the last vestiges of BR design gradually vanish from the scene.

 

John 

 

 

Edited September 5, 2022 by Dunsignalling

[Michael Hodgson]

On 01/09/2022 at 09:23, No Decorum said:

The 9F was a remarkable machine. Many years ago, when my then missus saw my model in action, she characterised it as having “short, fat, hairy legs”.

 

Yes, but don't worry, you can hardly see the join.

 

OK, so it's goodnight from me - and goodnight from him.

Edited September 5, 2022 by Michael Hodgson

[eldomtom2]

5 hours ago, Oldddudders said:

I welcome younger enthusiasts, of course, but note a distinct difference from when I was growing up - we loved the new and shiny! What was the highest number Crompton or Warship we had each seen? While one regretted the loss of the Cor-Buf-Cor formations on the Mid-Sussex fasts in 1964, the replacement CEP-BEP-CEP trains were much to be admired. Some way from my Surrey home, the completion of electrification in the South Eastern Division (where 20 years later I was Divisional Operating Assistant), and the spread of OHLE from Manchester towards London were great things to read about. And all those shiny red Routemasters in London....

Appreciation for the past has always been a major part of railway enthusiasm - at the same time you were admiring electrification, others were scrambling to catch their last glimpse of mainline steam before it disappeared forever...

[Legend]

Think we've departed somewhat from the thread title which is about Hornby cutting allocations . It would be good to retain this thread for future issue alerts and put the more general stuff elsewhere

 

[The Stationmaster]

Although probably meriting a topic of its own Hornby published its Autumn Trading statement last week.  it is linked here -

https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/Hornby/news/rns/story/wkol3vx

 

However a couple of sentences in the statement have some relevance here and I quote each of them in full -

 

'For the period from the 1 April to 31 August 2022, sales and margins have been in line with the previous year.'

 

'Our outstanding order book is very strong and higher than a year ago.'

 

The first suggests their sales, in total across all ranges,  have remained stable but have not increased.  The second however raises an interesting question because it refers, very clearly, to their order book which judging by many posts in this thread might well not going be reflected in what they actually deliver to retailers and thereby add real income to their bottom line.  I wonder how much of their 'order book' so far this year was actually delivered to retailers when the items became available?

 

The statement obviously draws attention to the importance of  the market over the Christmas period and notes that they are bringong forward shipping dates 'for key product lines'.  Good news if the situation in China allows that.

 

Interestingly there s also a statement about the purchase of the remaining shares in LCD Enterprises  and of stock from Oxford Diecast - does this suggest that 'somewhere' questions were asked?  But it goes on to make clear that the Company's 'adviser' (sic) has approved the processes involved and noted things as being 'fair and reasonable'.

 

Another item of interest lies in the results of the AGM resolutions where Daniel Carter, a Non-Exec Director, who works for Phoenix as an analyst, had 801,469 votes against his reappointment.  This is a miniscule percentage of the 153,000,000 + votes available but was massively greater (by a factor of nearly 200😮)  than any other Director's negative votes.  

[Jonboy]

At the moment it’s becoming less the issues in China so much as the disruption from the Felixstowe strikes, we have just lost 20 days on a container as it was due in the last strikes and the vessel made all its other European stops and came back.

(Another earlier shipment recently got dumped in Germany due to congestion at Felixstowe and took 30+ days to get back to the uk as no direct services).

 

If not resolved soon these will start to cause havoc with Xmas stock….

[Dunsignalling]

14 minutes ago, Jonboy said:

At the moment it’s becoming less the issues in China so much as the disruption from the Felixstowe strikes, we have just lost 20 days on a container as it was due in the last strikes and the vessel made all its other European stops and came back.

(Another earlier shipment recently got dumped in Germany due to congestion at Felixstowe and took 30+ days to get back to the uk as no direct services).

 

If not resolved soon these will start to cause havoc with Xmas stock….

That assumes Hornby's boxes are actually routed via Felixstowe. Given their location, I'd suggest at least two other container ports they might find more convenient even without the disruption.

 

John

[Jonboy]

6 minutes ago, Dunsignalling said:

That assumes Hornby's boxes are actually routed via Felixstowe. Given their location, I'd suggest at least two other container ports they might find more convenient even without the disruption.

 

John

 

 

Southampton and London Gateway are both starting to fill with rerouted vessels from FLX so will likely get congestion quite quickly .
They also apparently have form for helping for a short while in periods of disruption and then inviting the Lines to sign up for much longer contracts, or they will stop taking the overflow.

 

Liverpool looks like it could go out on strike shortly as well…

[Andy Hayter]

1 hour ago, Dunsignalling said:

That assumes Hornby's boxes are actually routed via Felixstowe. Given their location, I'd suggest at least two other container ports they might find more convenient even without the disruption.

 

John

 

Your comment John seems to assume that Hornby are able to influence where their containers land.  This will largely be out of their direct control.   Even if they are able to find a line due to discharge at point A, as @Jonboy has found, any change in circumstance means your container ends up at point B and may then have difficulty in finding a short sea (assuming B is outside of the British Isles) crossing to any UK port let alone port A.

[Dunsignalling]

1 hour ago, Andy Hayter said:

 

Your comment John seems to assume that Hornby are able to influence where their containers land.  This will largely be out of their direct control.   Even if they are able to find a line due to discharge at point A, as @Jonboy has found, any change in circumstance means your container ends up at point B and may then have difficulty in finding a short sea (assuming B is outside of the British Isles) crossing to any UK port let alone port A.

So, possibly even truck and ferry/Eurotunnel from a mainland European port rather than coming off the ship in the UK?

 

John

Edited September 21, 2022 by Dunsignalling

[AY Mod]

27 minutes ago, Dunsignalling said:

So, possibly even truck and ferry/Eurotunnel from a mainland European port rather than coming off the ship in the UK?

 

Certainly so, I've known of several relayed from Rotterdam or Spain in one case and there was one dropped at the boot of Italy whilst passing and reaching the UK before the same ship had come through the channel. It's not been a time of logic or predictability.

[Andy Hayter]

The ease of doing that may well depend on contract terms of the sale of the goods.  If sold FOB* (Free on Board), the buyer (Hornby) is responsible for the shipping and has much freedom to change the shipping route like you describe.  If the terms are CIF* or CIP* for example, shipping is the responsibility of the seller.  It is intended that the arrival port is defined in these last two terms but my personal experience was that the contract frequently (as in always) would be CIF UK port (undefined destination in a defined country).

 

If the seller is responsible for delivery, it is perhaps unlikely that they will pay extra costs for a road or rail deviation.   

 

I think it unlikely that anyone here will know what purchase conditions Hornby use so we can only speculate on whether they can or cannot influence the shipping routes.  

 

*  These are all technical terms used in international trade and define who is responsible for what during the transport from supplier to customer and when ownership and responsibility changes hands from supplier to customer.  They can get quite complex and I will confess to not being up to date with the 2020 rules.  

[john new]

Is it approaching the cusp period when the increasing difficulties of managing production and then importing goods from so far away outweigh the advantages that originally led to the perceived  and genuine advantages of exporting the manufacturing processes? Dapol have recently heavily re-invested in UK manufacture for some of their lines  (recent BRM edition confirms) as have PECO just down the coast from where I live.

 

There we’re several, valid, economic and manufacturing quality reasons for shifting production in many industries across the board out of UK to either EU (pre-BREXIT) or to far-eastern based production centres but how many of those original reasons now still, truly, apply?

[jjb1970]

It's no secret that container shipping has had a difficult time over the last couple of years (albeit a very financially rewarding difficult couple of years), there's been a perfect storm of a surge in demand at the same time as operations have been subject to disruption. Shipping lines have been juggling vessel deployments to put capacity where it is most needed but it's not just about ships. Adding additional tonnage doesn't help that much if ports are congested and ships are waiting for extended periods for a berth. Then the terminals can't get boxes in and out of the terminals quickly enough to maintain pre-pandemic service expectations. There's also an issue with boxes, the two biggest trades for the sector are the East - West Europe - Asia and US - Asia trades, both of which are highly asymetric. To maintain flows from Asia to Europe and the US the shipping companies need to get boxes back to Asia, however because they've been sending back empty boxes rather than leaving them in Europe and the US to be back filled they've been very heavily criticised by politicians and cargo owner groups (who have also been vocal about problems keeping cargo moving from Asia, go figure). And I guess people aware of the ongoing disruptions suffered by Chinese ports. At the same time there have been huge internal issues for the shipowners and operators because of a humanitarian crewing crisis (many crews were stuck onboard for what must have felt like forever, denied shore leave and access to medical treatment etc) and keeping ships certificated and operational because of disruptions to surveys, docking, maintenance facilities, supply of spares etc. I know I'm biased but looking at the conditions faced by the industry I think it's actually quite an achievement things have kept working as well as they have. Things do seem to have turned a corner and are improving but it's still a difficult time. Looking at the ports and terminals, in Singapore for example (the worlds second biggest container port by TEU numbers) they have had to keep the old Tanjong Pagar and Brani quays open as they need capacity, they were supposed to have all migrated to the new terminal at Pasir Panjang. The PSA (port authority) is operating three large container ships (circa 3000TEU) to move boxes between Tanjong Pagar/Brani and Pasir Panjang and the new port at Tuas to keep things working.

Apologies for the diversion into shipping, but there are reasons for the unusual conditions and it isn't malfeasance or incompetence by an industry which is trying to throw spanners in the works of everyone else.

[Dunsignalling]

7 hours ago, john new said:

Is it approaching the cusp period when the increasing difficulties of managing production and then importing goods from so far away outweigh the advantages that originally led to the perceived  and genuine advantages of exporting the manufacturing processes? Dapol have recently heavily re-invested in UK manufacture for some of their lines  (recent BRM edition confirms) as have PECO just down the coast from where I live.

 

There we’re several, valid, economic and manufacturing quality reasons for shifting production in many industries across the board out of UK to either EU (pre-BREXIT) or to far-eastern based production centres but how many of those original reasons now still, truly, apply?

The crux of the matter is that most model railway production was offshored in order to obtain greater detail for less money. In that it proved very successful and rapidly changed our expectations, both of quality and quantity. Many who might formerly have accumulated a couple of dozen locomotives over a modelling lifetime, now find themselves with more models than they really know what to do with.

 

Peco is not a good inspiration to pick, as they mainly produce large-ish quantities of items with few production stages. The same applied to Dapol while they limited themselves to 1970s specification wagons. They have moved toward greater detail and expanded into O Gauge, with some increase in UK production, but most of their more complex (i.e., labour-intensive) stuff comes from China. 

 

There's no physical reason why Hornby et al couldn't manufacture in the UK, but cost to us, as end-users, would dwarf the recent widespread rises in levels. Many are already finding it impossible (or domestically indefensible) to fund new acquisitions in the quantities to which we have become accustomed / addicted. 

 

Some might consider that no bad thing, in that it would necessitate more "real modelling", but it would be highly disruptive for both trade and consumers alike. 

 

The character of the hobby (at least in respect of items purchased new) would quickly revert towards being the province of the comfortably-off and those willing to forgo other pleasures to fund it, just as it was before Tri-ang arrived on the scene.

 

John

Edited September 22, 2022 by Dunsignalling

[john new]

Good response @Dunsignalling hence my original opening comment about are we on the cusp. Perhaps not yet ready.

[Bucoops]

Moving production closer to home might one day be cheaper than the far East - but it WON'T be cheaper than now. It may just mean our prices have risen slower than theirs. So @Dunsignalling's comments still ring true unfortunately.

[JohnR]

32 minutes ago, Bucoops said:

Moving production closer to home might one day be cheaper than the far East - but it WON'T be cheaper than now. It may just mean our prices have risen slower than theirs. So @Dunsignalling's comments still ring true unfortunately.

 

I think there are, perhaps certain items which it might make sense. Production of the highly detailed stuff, such as locos and coaches, isnt coming back. Possibly ever. But why should Hornby have a container full of things such as platforms (and other similar low detail plastic products) shipped half way around the world.