Hornby Loss

[Dunsignalling]

1 hour ago, Farang said:

You are assuming Rapido have a run of 30K. My motto, from experience, never assume anything.

That's what the man from Rapido (or is it Accurascale, I forget which!) told us a few posts back.

 

AIUI, at least some of the "new boys" work to what's pre-ordered up to a certain cut-off date, plus a percentage on top.

 

Hornby's business methods would make it impossible for them to do things that way round.

Edited December 10, 2022 by Dunsignalling

[1andrew1]

23 minutes ago, Dunsignalling said:

That's what the man from Rapido (or is it Accurascale, I forget which!) told us a few posts back.

 

AIUI, at least some of the "new boys" work to what's pre-ordered up to a certain cut-off date, plus a percentage on top.

 

Hornby's business methods would make it impossible for them to do things that way round.

Please can you expand on "work to what's pre-ordered up to a certain cut-off date, plus a percentage on top" and also how this compares to Hornby's approach. Does Hornby assume more of the risk? Would Hornby's approach be the same as Dapol's and Bachmann's.
 

I'm trying to understand the varying approaches.

[Dunsignalling]

2 hours ago, 1andrew1 said:

Please can you expand on "work to what's pre-ordered up to a certain cut-off date, plus a percentage on top" and also how this compares to Hornby's approach. Does Hornby assume more of the risk? Would Hornby's approach be the same as Dapol's and Bachmann's.
 

I'm trying to understand the varying approaches.

Simply because others decide production quantities after taking orders.

 

Hornby announce what's going in their catalogue, then invite their dealers to place orders. That means that their decisions on quantities are clearly taken before they know how many the dealer network wants. Otherwise the repeated problems of having to deep discount surplus items or cut dealer supplies (months after they must have known it would be necessary) just wouldn't occur. 

 

It's frankly daft, and it's been going on for a long time. I suspect Hornby previously got away with such lax practices because of their overwhelming dominance of the market.

 

Since that started changing, they seem to be in trouble. Coincidence? I think not.

 

Whilst all brands have suffered delays, we don't hear tales of drastic over/under supply issues relating to anyone but Hornby, which suggests that everybody else has better ways of doing it.  

 

John

 

 

 

 

Edited December 10, 2022 by Dunsignalling

[1andrew1]

7 hours ago, Dunsignalling said:

Simply because others decide production quantities after taking orders.

 

Hornby announce what's going in their catalogue, then invite their dealers to place orders. That means that their decisions on quantities are clearly taken before they know how many the dealer network wants. Otherwise the repeated problems of having to deep discount surplus items or cut dealer supplies (months after they must have known it would be necessary) just wouldn't occur. 

 

It's frankly daft, and it's been going on for a long time. I suspect Hornby previously got away with such lax practices because of their overwhelming dominance of the market.

 

Since that started changing, they seem to be in trouble. Coincidence? I think not.

 

Whilst all brands have suffered delays, we don't hear tales of drastic over/under supply issues relating to anyone but Hornby, which suggests that everybody else has better ways of doing it.  

 

John

 

 

 

 

Many thanks.

[Farang]

In American a manufacturer may announce production of, say, and N scale F7A in 20 road names with 2-4 numbers for each. Dealers are given a cut-off date for ordering and any item which does not attract the minimum number is cancelled. Hornby has already finalised its 2023 catalogue to be released next month but new models will probably not arrive before early 2025. Plenty of time to get the numbers right, I'd have thought? Or does Simon Davies-Kohler just give his best guess on the quantity to be produced?

[ikks]

On 04/12/2022 at 05:05, AY Mod said:

 

Not just legal eagles.

 

My invite to the media briefing for the 2023 range must have got lost. 😎

 

Anyway, I'm washing my hair.

Me too, we probably use the same polish!!😢😢.

 

Mike

[adb968008]

On 10/12/2022 at 10:57, 1andrew1 said:

Hornby and Bachmann could enter these markets too. I suspect it's more about the incumbents, British, German or Hong Kong, trying to get their existing businesses in order before entering new geographies.

I think they are being by passed.

 

There are at least 4 companies in Poland now making Polish models. Portugal and Spain, Nordics too have sprung up enterprises for their own markets.

 

I suspect that is why we are being delayed and facing inflation… its all coming from the same factories in China and its only so big.

Now Chinas going back to full production a massive backlog is going to start coming on stream, just as the west is getting a hangover.

Edited December 11, 2022 by adb968008

[adb968008]

1 hour ago, Farang said:

In American a manufacturer may announce production of, say, and N scale F7A in 20 road names with 2-4 numbers for each. Dealers are given a cut-off date for ordering and any item which does not attract the minimum number is cancelled. Hornby has already finalised its 2023 catalogue to be released next month but new models will probably not arrive before early 2025. Plenty of time to get the numbers right, I'd have thought? Or does Simon Davies-Kohler just give his best guess on the quantity to be produced?

In the past a January announcement would attract a big order book from retailers in January.

I would really hope that is used for finalising sizing of production, even if its blended trends of previous years.

 

Last year by all accounts reading online was a shabby disaster, I would be fascinated to see what the trades thoughts are on pre-ordering next year. As a consumer, I was completely driven away from last years farce and canceled pretty much everything. Ive now ordered a half dozen bits to speculate off the Jan 2024 price rises, and the 10% now/10% later discount, but my commitment could wane in an instant. I certainly wont rush to order anything Hornby after last year, i’d rather miss out… compare that to 12 Deltics, 10 92’s, 5 class 90’s, 8 class 86’s, 8x Sprinters etc ive recieved from other manufacturers this year.

 

 

 

 

Edited December 11, 2022 by adb968008

[eldomtom2]

2 hours ago, adb968008 said:

I suspect that is why we are being delayed and facing inflation… its all coming from the same factories in China and its only so big.

Now Chinas going back to full production a massive backlog is going to start coming on stream, just as the west is getting a hangover.

Personally if I was in model manufacturing I would be looking at non-China countries to manufacture in - isn't there a fair bit in eastern Europe? Plus Airfix makes most of their stuff in India, though admittedly plastic kits are simple enough you can even make them in the UK and still sell them at a competitive price.

[Ravenser]

On 09/12/2022 at 18:55, Dunsignalling said:

It seems clear that the big danger area in British OO is the diesel loco segment. A relatively small number of classes, most of which have already been produced to "current" standards, or soon will be.

 

More detail (perhaps going beyond its logical conclusion for the scale) and increased "electrickery" will keep things moving for a while but, even without impending recession, there are limits to how many people will pay ever higher premium prices for a decreasing rate of advancement. The point at which even the keener diesel devotees decide that the latest iteration will be judged to be "good enough" compared to the next is (IMHO) perilously close.

 

So, a slower market and a "glass ceiling" for standards and features seems likely, though that may well be offset by copious detail and livery variations. 

 

What seems inexplicable is the way the range of multiple units and electric locos has been comparatively ignored.

 

Steam outline is a different can of worms, though, as there are quite substantial variations of existing popular models that would reinvigorate sales, either for the incumbent provider or a competitor.

 

The emphasis of my own spending has been shifting from locos towards coaches and wagons for some time, largely as a result of dearer loco prices meaning I nowadays buy one or two rather than three or four!

 

John

 

 

I think OO steam is only one step behind OO diesels in terms of being played out. The annual Wish List Poll is showing this : the top slots are now being filled by much more esoteric items with limited geographic spread, and often limited numbers in service

 

A certain amount can be wrung from  detail variations of classes already released RTR (eg Bachmann could do the variant of the ROD 04 rebuilt with B1 boiler). But that is relatively slim pickings. Virtually every post-Grouping steam class built in numbers of 100 or more has been done . Pre-Grouping steam is a possible niche and we are seeing it : modelling the MR, SECR, LBSCR and even the LNW, GC and NER is becoming possible using a RTR core .But this only goes so far (The GE is probably the biggest potential target here)

 

Hornby and Bachmann are working up to 4 years ahead. Many of the subjects we think are still "available" will in fact already be under development by someone. If you are sitting in Margate, the list of things nobody is yet doing from which to choose the next round of new tooling in OO, due in 2025-6 , may look pretty thin

 

As you say, the gains from the "re-tool existing subjects" arms race are getting pretty marginal. The days when retooling a model produced a dramatic step-change , both mechanically and in terms of accuracy and detail , such that everyone went out and "upgraded" their fleet , are long gone. You've said yourself that the Hornby 9F , though better than the Bachmann one, doesn't justify the expense of replacing  your existing perfectly satisfactory locod. I'm in the same position with Class 158s : I have several perfectly satisfactory ones already, and the RRP for a new Bachmann 2-car 158 is £330  . When money is a little tight , and income uncertain , why on earth would I do that?

 

I find it significant that Hornby choose to rerun their Railroad 31 - ex Lima with an upgraded DCC ready mechanism - far more often than their full-fat high-spec 31 . "Good enough" seems to be a bigger market than the market for "state of the art 31" , and Hornby have the sales figures to know this. We are now awaiting the 5th and 6th new tooling of a high-spec 37 in OO . Are these really going to show such an advance on the existing Bachmann and Vi-Trains models that large numbers of folk are going to sell their current models and replace them at £250 a loco??

 

You raise the question of multiple units, but there are two huge constraints on them - space and cost. I was once involved with a project to build a 25kV overhead layout. In and around London , the standard operating unit is a 4 car EMU and you won't look credible unless you run trains of 2 EMUs or more. That meant an 8' train length, and a fiddle yard to take multiple 8' trains meant a layout at least 18'-20' long. Which we didn't actually have  (The issue is exactly the same in 3rd rail territory ). To find 3 -car unit you have to go to the conurbations outside London , and only 2 (Strathclyde and West Yorkshire) had 25kV suburban networks. Otherwise you were committed to accomodating 10' long 25kV expresses as well

 

A 4 car unit is now going to retail at nearer £500 than £400. We are talking about nearly £1000 for a single train - and you will need multiple trains to look credible . The cost of a property big enough to accomodate such a layout is staggering... Frankly , it makes overwhelming sense to do this sort of thing in a smaller scale like N or TT120.

 

I find it significant that Bachmann haven't bothered retooling the Voyager - potentially a very useful 4 or 5 coach InterCity train in a box. They clearly think the price point will be prohibitive . How many layouts do you see that actually run a OO Azuma, Pendolino, or Eurostar? I'm struggling to think of any.

 

From Hornby's point of view , switching a significant part of the development/new tooling budget from OO into a new small scale with no existing models , where every subject is new, may be a very rational move. This then leaves them to run OO as something of a cash-cow, offering affordably priced existing tooling as a budget /intermediate range , for the large slice of the market that isn't willing to pay ever higher premium prices for "the  definitive Class X" 

Edited December 11, 2022 by Ravenser
spelling

[Dunsignalling]

In my own case, there are areas where I would commit to substantial further OO purchases from Hornby.

 

There are half a dozen combinations of Bulleid Pacifics and tenders that haven't been covered (not to mention the original cab on air-smoothed Light Pacifics). That's seven locos, and second or third examples of at least a couple of those, so maybe up to a dozen. Potentially loadsa money, but I reason that they wouldn't all come at once!

 

Also, the M7; there are several possible variations untouched and although they have done a few that aren't long-frame/pull-push with splasher-mounted sand-boxes, they've been very few and far between.

 

I was also expecting to see a Urie S15 in the medium term, which hasn't happened, nor any of the myriad possible H15s or Us. 

 

That's just fairly mainstream SR items that sit high on my personal wishlist, there are many more lesser known locos (plus coaches/wagons) that I'd buy, Others can, no doubt, come up with similar lists for the rest of the big four.

 

Will Hornby fill any of these gaps, or will others jump in first?   

 

John

Edited December 11, 2022 by Dunsignalling

[adb968008]

7 hours ago, eldomtom2 said:

Personally if I was in model manufacturing I would be looking at non-China countries to manufacture in - isn't there a fair bit in eastern Europe? Plus Airfix makes most of their stuff in India, though admittedly plastic kits are simple enough you can even make them in the UK and still sell them at a competitive price.

Not really.

 

Robo, Schliesenmodelle, Piko in Poland make theres in China. 
Fuggerth / Deak, made in Hungary I understand have gone

Edited December 11, 2022 by adb968008

[Andy Hayter]

7 hours ago, eldomtom2 said:

Personally if I was in model manufacturing I would be looking at non-China countries to manufacture in - isn't there a fair bit in eastern Europe? Plus Airfix makes most of their stuff in India, though admittedly plastic kits are simple enough you can even make them in the UK and still sell them at a competitive price.

 

We've been here before.  There is some limited production in Eastern Europe but it would cost.  Compare the cost of a Roco pacific loco in H0 (ca £380) with the cost of a Hornby one in 00 (ca £230).  

 

The days when Comicon workers would work for a few kopeks per hour are long gone.

[Les1952]

4 hours ago, Ravenser said:

 

 

I think OO steam is only one step behind OO diesels in terms of being played out. The annual Wish List Poll is showing this : the top slots are now being filled by much more esoteric items with limited geographic spread, and often limited numbers in service

 

A certain amount can be wrung from  detail variations of classes already released RTR (eg Bachmann could do the variant of the ROD 04 rebuilt with B1 boiler). But that is relatively slim pickings. Virtually every post-Grouping steam class built in numbers of 100 or more has been done . Pre-Grouping steam is a possible niche and we are seeing it : modelling the MR, SECR, LBSCR and even the LNW, GC and NER is becoming possible using a RTR core .But this only goes so far (The GE is probably the biggest potential target here)

 

Hornby and Bachmann are working up to 4 years ahead. Many of the subjects we think are still "available" will in fact already be under development by someone. If you are sitting in Margate, the list of things nobody is yet doing from which to choose the next round of new tooling in OO, due in 2025-6 , may look pretty thin

 

As you say, the gains from the "re-tool existing subjects" arms race are getting pretty marginal. The days when retooling a model produced a dramatic step-change , both mechanically and in terms of accuracy and detail , such that everyone went out and "upgraded" their fleet , are long gone. You've said yourself that the Hornby 9F , though better than the Bachmann one, doesn't justify the expense of replacing  your existing perfectly satisfactory locod. I'm in the same position with Class 158s : I have several perfectly satisfactory ones already, and the RRP for a new Bachmann 2-car 158 is £330  . When money is a little tight , and income uncertain , why on earth would I do that?

 

I find it significant that Hornby choose to rerun their Railroad 31 - ex Lima with an upgraded DCC ready mechanism - far more often than their full-fat high-spec 31 . "Good enough" seems to be a bigger market than the market for "state of the art 31" , and Hornby have the sales figures to know this. We are now awaiting the 5th and 6th new tooling of a high-spec 37 in OO . Are these really going to show such an advance on the existing Bachmann and Vi-Trains models that large numbers of folk are going to sell their current models and replace them at £250 a loco??

 

You raise the question of multiple units, but there are two huge constraints on them - space and cost. I was once involved with a project to build a 25kV overhead layout. In and around London , the standard operating unit is a 4 car EMU and you won't look credible unless you run trains of 2 EMUs or more. That meant an 8' train length, and a fiddle yard to take multiple 8' trains meant a layout at least 18'-20' long. Which we didn't actually have  (The issue is exactly the same in 3rd rail territory ). To find 3 -car unit you have to go to the conurbations outside London , and only 2 (Strathclyde and West Yorkshire) had 25kV suburban networks. Otherwise you were committed to accomodating 10' long 25kV expresses as well

 

A 4 car unit is now going to retail at nearer £500 than £400. We are talking about nearly £1000 for a single train - and you will need multiple trains to look credible . The cost of a property big enough to accomodate such a layout is staggering... Frankly , it makes overwhelming sense to do this sort of thing in a smaller scale like N or TT120.

 

I find it significant that Bachmann haven't bothered retooling the Voyager - potentially a very useful 4 or 5 coach InterCity train in a box. They clearly think the price point will be prohibitive . How many layouts do you see that actually run a OO Azuma, Pendolino, or Eurostar? I'm struggling to think of any.

 

From Hornby's point of view , switching a significant part of the development/new tooling budget from OO into a new small scale with no existing models , where every subject is new, may be a very rational move. This then leaves them to run OO as something of a cash-cow, offering affordably priced existing tooling as a budget /intermediate range , for the large slice of the market that isn't willing to pay ever higher premium prices for "the  definitive Class X" 

 

One of the best arguments for TT:120 yet....

 

Les

[McC]

5 hours ago, Ravenser said:

 

5th and 6th new tooling of a high-spec 37 in OO . Are these really going to show such an advance on the existing Bachmann and Vi-Trains models that large numbers of folk are going to sell their current models and replace them at £250 a loco??

 

A 4 car unit is now going to retail at nearer £500 than £400.

Our new tool 37 is just £169.99 and a brand new tooling 4-car unit, done to our standard (in a niche market) is £379

https://www.accurascale.com/collections/railcar-class-22000-icr/products/ie-22000-class-icr-4-car-in-post-2013-ir-livery
 

Companies like us, run by modellers for modellers who’ve been frustrated with the deficiencies in the market simply want to sell you your next model, not replace your Fleet. 

Edited December 11, 2022 by McC

[Dunsignalling]

8 hours ago, Les1952 said:

 

One of the best arguments for TT:120 yet....

 

Les

OK if you just want to duplicate/replace all your "same old" in OO in a different size. In short, whilst Hornby may need TT:120, I don't.

 

Personally, I'd rather spend my cash on things that haven't been made before to fill real gaps in the OO fleet I have spent many years amassing. There's plenty yet to be done if your interest runs deeper than ECML Pacifics; how about a sensible selection of correctly proportioned coaches for them to pull for starters?

 

OO isn't "saturated", but Hornby OO may be in danger of becoming so. Others don't seem to have any trouble finding things to produce that sell. The only Hornby items I have on order currently are a couple of new Black Fives, and it seems touch-and-go that they will turn up by the end of 2023. In the meantime, I expect to spend more than the cost of both on wagons from Accurascale and Rapido, let alone their locos and product from other brands! 

 

I very much fear that Hornby may "go overboard" in attempting to revisit their glory days with the TT:120 project, and accelerate the decline of their market share in OO. Don't forget that if Hornby were to go down without others having committed to British TT:120, that would almost certainly go too.

 

Neither their new or established OO competitors are standing still, and even if TT:120 take-up were to exceed Hornby's wildest fantasies, it'd be a couple of decades at least before Hornby could safely "give up the day job". As things look right now, I think there's a distinct possibility that the "day job" might give them up before that can happen. 

 

Would I miss Hornby? Undoubtedly. However, I miss certain defunct brands of car that I liked, but I've not given up motoring. Even if "corporate" Hornby were to disappear, much of their tooling would re-emerge under new ownership, and I'd expect the sort of things I want to buy from them to become available from other sources pretty quickly.

 

John

 

Edited December 12, 2022 by Dunsignalling

[Les1952]

57 minutes ago, Dunsignalling said:

OK if you just want to duplicate/replace all your "same old" in OO in a different size. In short, whilst Hornby may need TT:120, I don't.

 

Personally, I'd rather spend my cash on things that haven't been made before to fill real gaps in the OO fleet I have spent many years amassing. There's plenty yet to be done if your interest runs deeper than ECML Pacifics; how about a sensible selection of correctly proportioned coaches for them to pull for starters?

 

OO isn't "saturated", but Hornby OO may be in danger of becoming so. Others don't seem to have any trouble finding things to produce that sell. The only Hornby items I have on order currently are a couple of new Black Fives, and it seems touch-and-go that they will turn up by the end of 2023. In the meantime, I expect to spend more than the cost of both on wagons from Accurascale and Rapido, let alone their locos and product from other brands! 

 

I very much fear that Hornby may "go overboard" in attempting to revisit their glory days with the TT:120 project, and accelerate the decline of their market share in OO. Don't forget that if Hornby were to go down without others having committed to British TT:120, that would almost certainly go too.

 

Neither their new or established OO competitors are standing still, and even if TT:120 take-up were to exceed Hornby's wildest fantasies, it'd be a couple of decades at least before Hornby could safely "give up the day job". As things look right now, I think there's a distinct possibility that the "day job" might give them up before that can happen. 

 

Would I miss Hornby? Undoubtedly. However, I miss certain defunct brands of car that I liked, but I've not given up motoring. Even if "corporate" Hornby were to disappear, much of their tooling would re-emerge under new ownership, and I'd expect the sort of things I want to buy from them to become available from other sources pretty quickly.

 

John

 

 

The thread isn't about whether you or I need TT:120, but whether Hornby needs it is very much relevant.

 

The excitement generated elsewhere for TT:120  (ie NOT on RMWeb) is a lot greater than many RMWebbers want it to be.  The next generation are those the new range is primarily aimed at, not cantankerous old buffers like me (and others on this platform).  They also have their own forums- note the plural, and most have nothing to do with RMWeb.  On at least three Facebook forums the excitement level about the imminent arrival (ie this morning) of the first set is very high.

 

However, to get back towards the original premise of the thread.  This is one set of results.  Other model manufacturers worldwide have similar or worse.  If Hornby does go down, much of the stuff won't reappear "pretty quickly" as those in a position to do that could well have gone under first.

 

Les

 

Edited December 12, 2022 by Les1952
typos...

[Dunsignalling]

19 minutes ago, Les1952 said:

 

The thread isn't about whether you or I need TT:120, but whether Hornby needs it is very much relevant.

 

The excitement generated elsewhere for TT:120  (ie NOT on RMWeb) is a lot greater than many RMWebbers want it to be.  The next generation are those the new range is primarily aimed at, not cantankerous old buffers like me (and others on this platform).  They also have their own forums- note the plural, and most have nothing to do with RMWeb.  On at least three Facebook forums the excitement level about the imminent arrival (ie this morning) of the first set is very high.

 

However, to get back towards the original premise of the thread.  This is one set of results.  Other model manufacturers worldwide have similar or worse.  If Hornby does go down, much of the stuff won't reappear "pretty quickly" as those in a position to do that could well have gone under first.

 

Les

 

 

So it'll just be a case of waiting to see who puts their money where their mouths are.

 

I know where mine will go. As ever on items I want, irrespective of box colour. Currently, that means very few red ones unless Hornby announce and deliver something unexpected pretty soon.

 

TBH, I'm getting rather bored by Hornby's recurring will-they-won't-they-survive soap opera cliff hangers. They've been in the model business long enough that they ought to know how to make a living from it by now! 

 

🤡🤡🤡

[HExpressD]

20 minutes ago, Dunsignalling said:

They've been in the model business long enough that they ought to know how to make a living from it by now! 

 

🤡🤡🤡

That implies that the way to make a living from it doesn't/hasn't changed over time!

[Dunsignalling]

1 minute ago, HExpressD said:

That implies that the way to make a living from it doesn't/hasn't changed over time!

 

1 minute ago, HExpressD said:

That implies that the way to make a living from it doesn't/hasn't changed over time!

It obviously has, but Hornby (equally obviously) seems unable to keep up with developments. 

 

The sad news this morning, that Eileen's Emporium has ceased trading demonstrates the precarious times that all businesses reliant upon discretionary spending are currently experiencing.

 

John

 

 

[Steamport Southport]

2 hours ago, Dunsignalling said:

 

It obviously has, but Hornby (equally obviously) seems unable to keep up with developments. 

 

The sad news this morning, that Eileen's Emporium has ceased trading demonstrates the precarious times that all businesses reliant upon discretionary spending are currently experiencing.

 

John

 

 

 

Maybe more the fact that everyone wants the manufacturers to do everything for them that the small suppliers are struggling.

 

"Boo Hoo. They haven't updated the Class XX for two years and the grilles are wrong for number XX XXX"

"I demand one in the livery it carried for two weeks in 1997"

 

So how many sets of detailing parts, paint and transfers are those people buying? I would say none.

 

Whereas up to twenty years ago there was a massive boon in selling those little bits and people following articles in the magazines on how to improve their models.

 

 

Jason

[JSpencer]

3 hours ago, Steamport Southport said:

 

Maybe more the fact that everyone wants the manufacturers to do everything for them that the small suppliers are struggling.

 

"Boo Hoo. They haven't updated the Class XX for two years and the grilles are wrong for number XX XXX"

"I demand one in the livery it carried for two weeks in 1997"

 

So how many sets of detailing parts, paint and transfers are those people buying? I would say none.

 

Whereas up to twenty years ago there was a massive boon in selling those little bits and people following articles in the magazines on how to improve their models.

 

 

Jason

 

Great shame about Eileen's Emporium. I had brought a load of wheels off them at the start of this year for a bunch of kits that I thought would not see RTR. Except some of them have. (Of course that still leaves some that have not!!). 

 

These small bits and bops people are very handy when one of our detailed models looses a part too.

[Ravenser]

18 hours ago, McC said:

Our new tool 37 is just £169.99 and a brand new tooling 4-car unit, done to our standard (in a niche market) is £379

https://www.accurascale.com/collections/railcar-class-22000-icr/products/ie-22000-class-icr-4-car-in-post-2013-ir-livery
 

Companies like us, run by modellers for modellers who’ve been frustrated with the deficiencies in the market simply want to sell you your next model, not replace your Fleet. 

 

 

1. There's no doubt that sales of the first round of high-spec locomotives , in  the decade 2000-2010 , were subtantially boosted by people dumping their existing Lima and Hornby models with pancake motors onto ebay and replacing them with new . The "upgrade cycle" was very real , and lots of people were coming on here and other forums boasting about how they were clearing out their old models and would be buying X number of Y's new Class 999.

 

We are agreed that that sort of thing won't be happening any more. Not at the prices we now see for locos , in a difficult economy.  This reduces the potential sales for new tooling of existing subjects significantly compared with what it was 10-15 years ago 

 

2. One aspect of the "high-spec model" which was very much underplayed in the "D+E wars" of 15-20 years agon was the huge mechanical improvement they represented. A centre motor driving both bogies through gear towers with all wheel pickup represented a dramatic step up from the quality of running delivered by a Lima pancake with limited pickup s. The upgrade to a new model was worth it , just for that. That card can't be p;layed again - Bachmann's 4th version of the 37 will run only marginally better than their first version 20 years ago.  Kernow are indicating the RRP of the forthcoming Bachmann 37 as £245 . The case for replacing your existing models with the new one looks less than compelling.... 

 

And since pretty well every D+E modeller already has a centre motor drive RTR Class 37 (and if we're honest, commonly more of the things than they can find a real use for on a layout) , the unsatisfied demand for extra Class 37s is going to be a lot less than the demand for such models 20 years ago. No doubt there have been new entrants to the hobby in the last few years, but the general perception is of a gradually declining number of modellers, mostly committed modellers for many years.

 

3. In the 1990s, RTR manufacturers used to curse the second hand market. It was a point of pride amongst modern image modellers that they never bought a new model, and instead bought the raw material for their reworks off the secondhand tables at £25 a time...

 

The step-change with high-spec models made the second-hand tables obsolete. Suddenly status was gained by buying the latest RTR models

 

But a look at German or US modellers suggests that for them buying a loco second-hand is regarded as not very different from buying one new. That's logical - they've had high-spec models for many decades, so a 15 year old model isn't that different from a current production one. I've seem German outline modellers talk casually about funding a new release by selling an older less used model of something else from their collection. "One in, one out" seems to be a reality for some - again, at Continental prices nobody's going to be saying "Im ordering 7 of the new Markmanncoco Bavarian 4-12-6Ts , in 3 differnt liveries" (But 10-15 years ago the posts about "I was going to buy 7 of the new Class XX - but after seeing this it'll only be 2 or 3" were something of a sick cliche)

 

We are now getting into the same situation as the Germans or Americans . There's over 20 years of high-spec production out there. And if people start selling on existing models to fund or make space for new purchases, it will affect the second hand market . If the new entrant can pick up a Bachmann Rat at £60-£75 secondhand from a trader - he won't be buying a Sutton Loco Works model at £193 incl postage. The glut of modest-priced kitbuilt locos in the second-hand market reflects people disposing of kit built locos in favour of high-spec RTR.  Once you are into a cycle of retooling existing subjects already done to high-spec, then the same thing will play out with modern RTR. That's not a wild suggestion - its what you see on the Continent and the US. And its the way Hattons have been going over the last 5 years

 

All this slowly cuts deep into the potential market for new OO RTR. This is what I mean by OO getting saturated

 

Again not speculation on my part - we've seen exactly this play out on the Continent over 20 years, albeit starting from a higher spec, higher price and higher cost base . As a result, most Continental manufactuers have gone bust at least once. Hornby are well aware of it - they bought the wreckage of one such failure to get into HO . Their initial play was a budget one: "the models you know - at 20% less. And we can do this and make money , because we've moved production to China". They are also the only British player to offer a designated budget range .with Railroad. And it seems to work. They have ex Lima tooling still selling happily 20 years on, and it seems they Railroad 31 is a better seller than their "full-fat" 31

 

Switching the new-tooling budget in part away from OO into a new small scale, aimed at bringing in new entrants to the hobby with space limitations and price ceilings , using a more sophisticated version of Design Clever to keep production costs down, in a scale designed to address the percieved weaknesses of N - well, it's a big gamble. But it is a rational and logical gamble....

[jjb1970]

I now see no need to replace any of the OO models I still own as companies release new and better alternatives. I did replace my Lima and pre-China Hornby models and such like as new improved models were released as there was a paradigm shift in every aspect of the models. Now if I look at the models I like it's certainly possible to improve them but I'm still perfectly happy with the last versions of the Bachmann 37 and 47, I am still happy with the Hornby rebuilt Merchant Navy etc. I will almost certainly buy examples of new releases but they'll be additional, not to replace, and very selective.

[Dunsignalling]

On 12/12/2022 at 20:08, Ravenser said:

 

 

1. There's no doubt that sales of the first round of high-spec locomotives , in  the decade 2000-2010 , were subtantially boosted by people dumping their existing Lima and Hornby models with pancake motors onto ebay and replacing them with new . The "upgrade cycle" was very real , and lots of people were coming on here and other forums boasting about how they were clearing out their old models and would be buying X number of Y's new Class 999.

 

We are agreed that that sort of thing won't be happening any more. Not at the prices we now see for locos , in a difficult economy.  This reduces the potential sales for new tooling of existing subjects significantly compared with what it was 10-15 years ago 

 

2. One aspect of the "high-spec model" which was very much underplayed in the "D+E wars" of 15-20 years agon was the huge mechanical improvement they represented. A centre motor driving both bogies through gear towers with all wheel pickup represented a dramatic step up from the quality of running delivered by a Lima pancake with limited pickup s. The upgrade to a new model was worth it , just for that. That card can't be p;layed again - Bachmann's 4th version of the 37 will run only marginally better than their first version 20 years ago.  Kernow are indicating the RRP of the forthcoming Bachmann 37 as £245 . The case for replacing your existing models with the new one looks less than compelling.... 

 

And since pretty well every D+E modeller already has a centre motor drive RTR Class 37 (and if we're honest, commonly more of the things than they can find a real use for on a layout) , the unsatisfied demand for extra Class 37s is going to be a lot less than the demand for such models 20 years ago. No doubt there have been new entrants to the hobby in the last few years, but the general perception is of a gradually declining number of modellers, mostly committed modellers for many years.

 

3. In the 1990s, RTR manufacturers used to curse the second hand market. It was a point of pride amongst modern image modellers that they never bought a new model, and instead bought the raw material for their reworks off the secondhand tables at £25 a time...

 

The step-change with high-spec models made the second-hand tables obsolete. Suddenly status was gained by buying the latest RTR models

 

But a look at German or US modellers suggests that for them buying a loco second-hand is regarded as not very different from buying one new. That's logical - they've had high-spec models for many decades, so a 15 year old model isn't that different from a current production one. I've seem German outline modellers talk casually about funding a new release by selling an older less used model of something else from their collection. "One in, one out" seems to be a reality for some - again, at Continental prices nobody's going to be saying "Im ordering 7 of the new Markmanncoco Bavarian 4-12-6Ts , in 3 differnt liveries" (But 10-15 years ago the posts about "I was going to buy 7 of the new Class XX - but after seeing this it'll only be 2 or 3" were something of a sick cliche)

 

We are now getting into the same situation as the Germans or Americans . There's over 20 years of high-spec production out there. And if people start selling on existing models to fund or make space for new purchases, it will affect the second hand market . If the new entrant can pick up a Bachmann Rat at £60-£75 secondhand from a trader - he won't be buying a Sutton Loco Works model at £193 incl postage. The glut of modest-priced kitbuilt locos in the second-hand market reflects people disposing of kit built locos in favour of high-spec RTR.  Once you are into a cycle of retooling existing subjects already done to high-spec, then the same thing will play out with modern RTR. That's not a wild suggestion - its what you see on the Continent and the US. And its the way Hattons have been going over the last 5 years

 

All this slowly cuts deep into the potential market for new OO RTR. This is what I mean by OO getting saturated

 

Again not speculation on my part - we've seen exactly this play out on the Continent over 20 years, albeit starting from a higher spec, higher price and higher cost base . As a result, most Continental manufactuers have gone bust at least once. Hornby are well aware of it - they bought the wreckage of one such failure to get into HO . Their initial play was a budget one: "the models you know - at 20% less. And we can do this and make money , because we've moved production to China". They are also the only British player to offer a designated budget range .with Railroad. And it seems to work. They have ex Lima tooling still selling happily 20 years on, and it seems they Railroad 31 is a better seller than their "full-fat" 31

 

Switching the new-tooling budget in part away from OO into a new small scale, aimed at bringing in new entrants to the hobby with space limitations and price ceilings , using a more sophisticated version of Design Clever to keep production costs down, in a scale designed to address the percieved weaknesses of N - well, it's a big gamble. But it is a rational and logical gamble....

 

All true, but ignoring one very substantial segment of the hobby, collectors (including unintentional ones that have accumulated 40-odd Hornby Bulleid Pacifics, almost without noticing). In my defence, I am pretty disciplined where other things are concerned!

 

Their total spend probably dwarfs that of we who use (or aspire to use) our models.  

 

John

Edited December 14, 2022 by Dunsignalling